Earnings Labs

Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 24, 2013

$39.13

-1.31%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Jennifer, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Quynh McGuire, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst

Thank you, Jennifer. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's first quarter fiscal year 2014 results. We issued our quarterly earnings press release earlier today. You may access this announcement via our website at www.kennametal.com. Consistent with our practice in prior quarterly conference calls, we've invited various members of the media to listen to this call. Also, it is being broadcast live on our website, and a recording will be available on our site for replay through November 25, 2013. I'm Quynh McGuire, Director of Investor Relations for Kennametal. Joining me for our call today are: Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Carlos Cardoso; Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Frank Simpkins; and Vice President, Finance, and Corporate Controller, Martha Bailey Fusco. Carlos and Frank will provide further explanation on the quarter's financial performance. After the remarks, we'll be happy to answer your questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. The discussion we'll have today contains comments that may constitute forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risk factors and uncertainties is detailed in Kennametal's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, Kennametal has provided the SEC with a Form 8-K, a copy of which is currently available on our website. This enables us to discuss non-GAAP financial measures during this call in accordance with SEC Regulation G. This 8-K presents GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable to those non-GAAP financial measures, and it provides a reconciliation of those measures as well. I'll now turn the call over to Carlos.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Thank you, Quynh. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. For the September quarter, Kennametal, again, achieved double-digit profitability as a result of our company-specific initiatives and ongoing cost discipline. We delivered an operating margin of 10.6% on an adjusted basis, despite persistent macro uncertainties. Global industry production trends during the September quarter began to show pockets of growth and increased activities in certain areas, particularly in early cycle markets. For Kennametal, those trends led to higher demand in our Industrial segment. In addition, orders activity in the distribution channels continue to reflect higher volumes. Our WIDIA brand products realized organic growth of 4% year-over-year, representing increases in every geographic region. In addition, we completed the acquisition of the Bolivia-based tungsten processing operations called Emura. The addition of Emura also enhances Kennametal strategic tungsten-sourcing capabilities to serve our global growth. As always, profitable growth remains a top priority for Kennametal and acquisitions have historically been a key part of our strategy. During the September quarter, we signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Tungsten Materials Business from Allegheny Technologies or ATI, a leading producer of tungsten powders and tooling technologies and components. This acquisition offers excellent growth opportunities for Kennametal. It aligns with our long-term growth strategies, extends our presence in aerospace and energy end markets, and further augments our tooling portfolio. It also accelerates our strategy to expand capacity and develop an advanced tungsten carbide recycling facility in U.S. to serve global markets. The transaction represents a winning business combination that enhances our talent base, provides complementary strategic assets, and further balances our portfolio. We expect the ATI deal to close within the next 30 days. Innovation also continues to be central to Kennametal's growth strategy. In fact, for 75 years, innovation by our global team has…

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

Thank you, Carlos. Consistent with the prior discussions, I'll start by making some comments, and then I'll review the first quarter and additional detail. And as always, some of my comments are related to non-GAAP metrics. As Carlos pointed out, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, we delivered solid profitability during the September quarter with earnings per share of $0.48 per share, which included our nonrecurring charges of $0.05 and operating margin of 9.5%. The nonrecurring charges included a physical inventory adjustment of approximately $6 million and ATI acquisition cost of approximately $1 million and has unfavorably impacted our margin performance by about 110 basis points. In the September quarter, we experienced improved sales trends in our earlier cycle industrial business, which continues to gain momentum. However, the infrastructure business, which is generally mid-to late cycle, continued to lag as the underground mining sector remains weak globally and the energy market is still seeing some demand softness in the near term. However, I think it's important to highlight that the month of September is the first time in 15 months where Kennametal realized year-over-year sales growth. Also for each month during the quarter, the daily order rate increased sequentially, and in addition, our WIDIA products realized a positive year-over-year growth in all geographies. We also generated $20 million of free operating cash flow during the quarter compared with a $12 million outflow in the prior year. The September quarter is typically our seasonal low in terms of free operating cash flow generation. However, the current quarter generated the highest September quarter free operating cash flow in the past 10 years, due in part to our improved efficiencies and cash management strategies. As Carlos briefly mentioned, we also entered into an agreement for $605 million to acquire ATI's Tungsten Materials Business, which…

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Thank you, Frank. As we move forward, we'll maintain our focus on profitability, earnings and cash flows. We remain committed to our aspirations of doubling revenues over the next 5 years. Along the way, Kennametal's global team will continue to execute company-specific strategies to achieve our goals and further strengthen our business. As always, we'll continue to seek diversity in every aspect of our business by expanding our global presence to generate revenues equally from North America, Western Europe and Rest of the World markets. At the same time, we'll continue to work towards a more balanced mix of served end markets and business segments. Kennametal's diversification strategies will provide additional growth opportunities and lessen volatility throughout the economic cycle. In summary, our global team will continue to execute our strategies and follow the principles of our Kennametal value businesses system, a proven management operating system. We'll continue to strengthen our financial position and remain disciplined in our capital allocation process. We will invest in capital expenditures to better meet customers' demands, make acquisitions in adjacent markets, as well as bolt-on business, continue share buybacks and pay dividends. Thank you for your continued support. We will now take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

I just had a question about Europe. Europe's run positive in both the Industrial and the Infrastructure segments. Can you just talk about what it feels like, in a business, it feel like it's sustainable going forward.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think it is. It's driven, once again, by a strong economy, which is Germany, as we always mention. Germany is our largest market in European arena and it is driven primarily from their exports in the automotive-related businesses. So we continue to see that's trending, although at a very slow pace. And EMO is a really good indication. EMO is the largest tool show in the world, and was very well attended with 140,000 people. And the feeling was very positive. And that took place just about a month ago. So we feel that we'll continue to see growth in Europe.

Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Great. And then could you just talk a little bit more about the pricing environments and what you're seeing competitively? And if Industrial production continues to recover, do you think you can leverage that on the pricing side?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

Yes. I think, if I Ross -- if I break it between the 2, I think the key industrial side is pretty much in line with the plan, nothing noteworthy there. The competition, everybody saw sitting on the sidelines right now as far as moving. And consistent with our past practice, we'll evaluate looking at something in January, particularly on the industrial side. On the infrastructure side, I would say it's pretty much holding, but probably a little bit more pressure for us on the mining side as you would anticipate it. So net-net, maybe slightly down. Nothing significant with the industrial being kind of flattish and a little bit pressure on the mining side.

Ross P. Gilardi - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

And then just lastly, I want to ask you about your inventories. Your inventory to 12-month trailing sales looks a little high relative to history. Is there anything going on in the business specifically tied to the Bolivian acquisition, anything like that? Are you kind of happy with your production relative to the current environment? Are you building inventory in anticipation of some restocking, any color you could give on that?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

Yes, there is some -- from the Bolivia, approximately $20 million of inventory came in with the acquisition of Emura in the month of August. And then as we talked about in the fourth quarter, and this is one of the points why we chose not to try to take down inventory, anticipate with some of the trends we saw, and really focusing particularly on the industrial side on fill rate, to get the fill rates on the high movers higher. We wanted to make sure that we have the right inventory in line because we know that demand is picking up. We're seeing it in distribution. It's not to the effect of restocking. It's kind of current demand. But we need to make sure that we have the products on the shelf for the customers.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

And I'll remind everyone that the profile is that about 35% to 40% of sales in the first half, and the balance is -- the second half is a higher level. So we really need to be prepared for that.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Crédit Suisse. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Just firstly on the sales guidance. I just wondered if it embeds a big sort of restocking at some point in the year or if it's based solely on slightly improving end-market demand?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Yes. At this point, it's slight improving on the end-market demand. I mean, we, again, when we look at where we are today, we see the increase in the rates, the daily rates. And with the -- having the same profile of 35% to 40% in the first half versus the second half, it's consistent with the natural seasonality of the business. So at this point, we're not anticipating a huge restocking. Obviously, at this rate of 5% to 7% growth, it's hard for us to know how much of that is restocking versus just increasing in activity. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Got it. Thanks. And then the guidance that you say, it's implying, I guess, about underlying $0.10 increase sequentially in EPS in Q2 from Q1. Are you expecting the revenues in both Industrial and Infrastructure to be up sequentially in the December quarter or just Industrial?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

We typically focus on the full year guidance. That's why we tweaked that in. Overall, from a top line growth based upon the trends, I think, so far, October's pretty much in line with our forecast. So definitely, the Industrial side is going to be, I believe, up sequentially, as well as maybe slightly on the Infrastructure side. So things are moving in the right side. And on the underground coal mining, well, it's a little bit of a drag. That eventually in the emerging markets may come a little bit quicker. But we're still looking at the surface mining applications that Carlos alluded to. We're finding some niche, so it's not necessarily underground, maybe more hard rock. And then the energy is, we're seeing a little bit more quoting activity, so the energy could be a pleasant surprise as we go forward. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Thanks. And then just a final quick one. You talked on the last call about $10 million of sort of OpEx or SG&A investments on productivity and restructuring. The SG&A is actually down year-on-year in Q1. Is that $10 million number still likely or that's been trimmed back a bit?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

No, that's the pay-as-you-go on a number we talked about. We have some restructuring cost in there, and I would say that, that will kick in and probably more force here in the second quarter.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Just a follow up on the guidance question. More broadly, when you think about the sales trends for the year between the 2 different segments and the revision to the growth outlook, is the Infrastructure business expected to grow this year or just remain somewhat flat? Just a little bit more color, that would be helpful.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Yes, we expect both business to grow on a year-over-year basis with a little bit stronger growth, Adam, coming out of the Industrial, as you would expect. We're offsetting, you know, particularly, when you look at the segment and try to look at Earthworks, when you typically look at it, it's only down slightly because part of the underground coal mining was offset by highway construction pretty much in all geographies. Plus, we're seeing some additional activity in foundation work, trench work, so we're trying to find some additional opportunities to offset some of the softness in the Infrastructure side. So the Infrastructure is not going to grow overall as fast as Industrial, and that's why we kind of a made a little bit of a tweak. So we think a little bit on the plus side on the Industrial, and a little softer in the Infrastructure.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Okay. And then, I thought it was interesting the comments about the sales to distribution were up double digits on the Industrial side. I guess, I'm just wondering what the prior trend was. I guess, you indicated that there's not too much destocking, but any color, commentary on the order rates would be helpful.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Yes, the double-digit in the distributor was for the month, not for the quarter, so although the quarter was positive. And I mean, we said that we basically saw the destocking in the December quarter timeframe. So we feel this is consistent with our expectations and it makes us feel good from the point of view that it's typically a leading indicator. The distributors start ramping up their purchases as they gain confidence and as the OEM start buying stock. So it is consistent with our forecast.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

One clarification. The $2.90 to $3.05 slight trim in guidance, does that include $0.48 in the first quarter? In other words [indiscernible] we'll take the $0.05 out that you or?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

No, we let that fall. That's why we took it off to the back end.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

I mean, so the $2.90 to $3.05 is based on $0.48 in the first quarter?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Yes. $0.49. Really.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

$0.49 rounding it. But basically -- so it basically changes the $0.05 write-off that you took effectively?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Yes, I mean the simple way of looking at it, the Industrial is doing a little bit better on the top line. The Infrastructure is a little bit less. We got a little bit of a currency benefit. So they're kind of washing each other out. And then the nonrecurring inventory charge, it's one of those things, it is what it is. We book it, and we're going to move on. But if you take those factors, if you take the inventory change out we're saying at the guidance, we tweaked it down a little bit. And if we get a better mix from a profitability standpoint, we should be able to make up the second half where we have a little bit weakness on the Infrastructure side.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

And we're finished with the inventory adjustments at this point?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Yes. Yes, that was a one timer.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

And can you give us some insight, you talked, we got a pretty good feel for the mix of the top line. Can you give us some insight on what you're expecting on the bottom line in profitability, corporate wide and particularly by segment. I mean, Infrastructure numbers are somewhat disappointing. I'm not sure they can change very much as long as mining stays under the pressure it's under.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Yes, clearly, we typically don't give out the numbers as you know you, Eli, but there's going to be a better incremental margin. As volume returns to Industrial, they're going to lever very nice because of the way we restructured the business and kind of the standard products. Infrastructure, I would expect the second half to be a little bit better. And we're assuming, in that case, energy starts to increase a little bit. Now, if we do get an improved energy scenario in the second half, which we're trying to put it down the middle of the road, well then that's rough, and Infrastructure will do much better than we have forecasted, but it depends on what's going to happen particularly on the energy side. And I think we got the Earthworks side nailed pretty well from both a mining, above and underground, as well as some of the highway construction activities. So the upside for us could be potentially around the energy.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

It's all volume, Eli. I mean, as the plan says, we're going to have a higher volume in the second half. Therefore, as usual, we lever pretty well.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

And all the numbers you're talking about, this has nothing with ATI in it?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Yes, that's correct, Eli. And that was the point I made when we did it. And we'll most likely, if this thing, we assume that's going to close. In the near-term here, we'll provide kind of an update at our Analyst Day.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

Just -- I think, most of them has been asked. But I guess, I'm just curious. As you think about your balance sheet and your cash flow post ATI, and I know, Frank, you said you guys have lightened up on the share repurchase pending this acquisition. Should we look at you guys to sort of integrate, pay down a little bit of debt before we do anything else with cash flow, be it share repurchase or even additional acquisitions? Or how do you just think about that?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes, Steve, I think it's a good question. I think we're going to generate some nice cash flow. And ATI actually is pretty efficient from the cash flow generation standpoint. So we're going to have some additional cash there. So we will continue to balance priorities. We're going to put the CapEx in the business we make. Accelerate some of that, that's why we're pulling back on some of the repurchases that we want to really try to get at the synergies sooner rather than later, particularly on the metallurgical side. And then the wild card is, we always have a couple acquisitions. I wouldn't say anything to this magnitude near term, but there's always the $50 million to $150 million type of revenue companies that are top time. So we'll walk the dance, and if we think it's a little bit closer, but I would say, all intentions are really to focus on this acquisition, make it a home run, really integrate it quick, and then get back into the regular process.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Walt Liptak with Global Hunter.

Walter S. Liptak - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Global Hunter.

I want to ask you, to go back to the inventory charge, that was for Emura inventory, right, the $0.05?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Global Hunter.

No, that was from a different piece of our business on the inventory related to the surface mining.

Walter S. Liptak - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Global Hunter.

Okay. Was there a charge related to Emura? Was there any purchase accounting or anything that ran through?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Global Hunter.

No. That was a relatively small one. And as I said, we said, it was accretive immediately. So that was one of our suppliers in the past that we bought so. That would get lost in a rounding in a month or 2 since we basically acquired it August 1.

Walter S. Liptak - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Global Hunter.

Okay. And I think you said that ATI, you're expecting a close date in a month, is that right?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Global Hunter.

Yes, we said within 30 days on the call. Hopefully, we'll get the HSR filing relatively soon here. And the German cartel given some of the European presence, but we don’t anticipate any issues.

Walter S. Liptak - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Global Hunter.

Okay. And can you walk us through just the financial mechanics, the amount of cash you'd use, the bank credit that you'd use on getting the deal done and any charges that you're anticipating related to purchase accounting or other write-offs?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Global Hunter.

Yes. As far as -- the purchase price, as you know, is $605 million. We'll probably use about $150 million of cash. And we'll use the remaining $450-ish million, give or take, on the revolver going forward. And then what we said on the call back in September, we think it would be neutral, depending when it closes. Obviously, the shorter the time frame, the harder it is. But we'll start evaluating potential synergies. Once we close the deal, we really can't comment on it. And when we get up to -- once we close on a deal, we'll come forward with kind of our proposed plans to align the business consistent with Kennametal. But when we factor in those another high level and then forget about the top line issue, we said it should be neutral in fiscal '14.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

First question on the revenue guidance. With the start of the year, I think it was 3% organic drop in the first quarter. Does the full year revenue guidance for organic imply, if I'm doing the math correct, 6% to 14% for the combined rest of the year? And is that really being driven by an expectation that the current trends continue to progress along normal cyclical manners?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

I would say, it's always tough when you come out of a recession. Obviously, we have a growth built into our numbers. I don't -- I'm not sure I had caught the numbers you said, Andy. But we expect obviously growth in the second quarter. And it to be strong in the second half consistent with the quality of work days that we get. We always have the pickup in the quality of days, less holidays going forward. So this is pretty much trending as we had anticipated. As you'd come out, as I said earlier, when we look at our performance as we typically come out of a lull of a year-over-year negative growth, and I'm not saying the great recession is back. But if you go back in time, the pattern looks like it's our top line goal of 4% to 6% organic is in line with what we would expect coming out of a recession.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

So it's consistent with seasonality of the business, it's consistent with the last 2 months of the quarter and the current month, October, is very consistent with our outlook. And it's consistent with our previous models.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Okay. And then if I could -- I'm going to get granular. Again, I apologize. But the $0.02 decrease, the earnings guidance midpoint for the year includes the deduction of $0.05, offset by $0.03 coming from higher contribution elsewhere. Again, I know it's granular. But is the $0.03 coming from operations or is it coming from somewhere else?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Well, I think the $0.03, when we started off, we're getting a little bit of a lift in the currency. Now, as you know, you don't lever well when you translate your profitability, but we're getting a little bit of a lift from FX.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Okay, Andy, this is Quynh, and we can go over that off-line, if you'd like.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Rudy Hokanson with Barrington Research.

Rudolf A. Hokanson - Barrington Research Associates, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Barrington Research.

I have a couple of questions, just clarifications, and I'll just give them to you sort of in line. There's 3 of them. One, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the timing on the aerospace, and if you can be a little bit more specific about what programs or what size that appears to be? The second has to do with the distribution positive results that you've been getting. And you talked about it being around the globe. And I was wondering if this is something that truly is global and uniform, or if it's just maybe positive around the globe but there's a stronger pocket rather than others such as Europe and so the real focus would be more Europe. And the third question gets into the energy area and you said you're having an increased activity in terms of bidding right now. I was wondering if you're getting any sense as to the plans of your customers in terms of their CapEx for calendar 2014 versus what they spent in 2013, especially as it relates to your market. Those are my 3 questions.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Barrington Research.

Okay. Let me address that and Frank will pipe in. The aerospace, we don't break down into the program. As we've said, we are starting to see activity in general, including the 787 production. Again, they've had some issues, but they have continually increased the production. And relative to the distribution, the distribution, we are seeing growth everywhere. I mean the biggest areas are Europe and the U.S. And it's consistent with the recovery, and I think we're starting to see that in China as well in this quarter. And typically, that's a leading indicator for us. And somebody mentioned 10%, it was 10% for the month of September. So it's a very good view. And maybe Frank can talk about the energy a little bit.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Barrington Research.

Yes, the energy, obviously, we don’t share what our customers tell us. But obviously, we're down, whether it's drilling, production completion and our teams typically work closely with the big energy companies you would expect on a global basis. The other interesting dynamic here will be, as we close on the deal of ATI, 2 of the key end markets that we really like there was the aerospace that they play in, particularly some of the products, they have indexable milling and milling products. And their energy side, some of the products and manufacturing that they have as it relates to the energy. So I think Carlos hit the main points there as well. But I think ATI is going to give us additional opportunities and insights once we acquire the company in the next 30 days.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with Bank of Montréal.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Can you talk a little bit about pricing and inventories? Just what we're seeing for us for the rest of the year, and where are we in inventories?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Joel, are you asking about Kennametal's inventories?

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Yes, and also in distribution, too.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Well, I mean the Kennametal, we talked a little bit earlier about the Kennametal inventory. I mean, we had an uptick with the acquisition of Emura, and we also are building some inventory to support the growth in the second half of our year. And relative to the distribution, I mean, I don't -- we don't see any increase of inventories in the distribution in particular. So we assume that as we said, the restocking had stopped. And they are just meeting the demand. We haven't really seen a restocking. So that's from an inventory perspective.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

And the price, I think, as I said earlier, I think, the Industrial has no real change there. And we'll evaluate, this is what we do in January. And then I would expect more of the same on the Infrastructure side. The interesting is APT prices have since kind of come down at the beginning of the year when we provided guidance. It started to run higher, it's since settled back into kind of our norm or what we had expected. So we think we're pretty balanced for the rest of the year from a pricing perspective.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Yes, by the end of the year, our pricing will be flat to slightly positive overall.

Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

And then just on a big picture view. What is the sort of vertical integration -- what does it do to the return on capital and return on assets of the overall company? Even just sort of like looking 2 years out?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Yes, let me address the vertical. The business is not 100% vertical. It brings $360 million of sales, okay, only a portion of it is vertical. So I just want to make sure that we understand that as well. From the capital perspective, Frank, maybe you can.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

Yes, Joel, I think the vertical, it comes in on the math [ph] side, and you've got to put the Emura piece in there as well, where we don't own a mine, but we own the ore coming out of the mine and we process it down there. So as opposed to us going out and having to source that material and be dependent upon the swings on APT, we've somewhat mitigated that and the ability to take both ore as well as hard and soft scrap with the ATI recycling capabilities. It gives us obviously good returns from an overall profitability. It significantly reduces our cost to get the raw materials that we use in our products.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

So it helps us with the top line, new customers, new markets. It balances our risks from a point of view of the sourcing and reduces our costs of raw materials because they bring, with the processing, they have to bring a lower cost to us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Holden Lewis with BB&T. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: In the last few weeks, I'm just sort of asking again about the distribution commentary. We've heard from companies like Grainger and Fastenal and Motion Industries and WESCO and Anixter, we've seen results from all these guys. And no one would have mistaken any of their results for being positive. And obviously, it's a short-cycle business. Those are some big players, none of whom are sort of talking about the sort of improvement in the distribution channel that you seem to be alluding to. And so I'm just trying to get a sense of where is the disconnect between what the distributors are saying and what you're saying?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst

Yes, Holden, I'm going to jump in. You got to remember, last year -- I don’t want to call it a relatively easy comp, but I'll call it an easy comp. As you know, last year, when we're going through the destocking, we started to see a pretty strong in the month of September going forward. So that's one of the main drivers as far as the performance as we highlighted in the month of September. And then just kind of repositioning and working it and continuing to execute our strategies.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

This is a natural supply chain phenomena. So when the distributors start destocking, their sales are not going down as much as our sales to them. The opposite happens in the upside. In other words, their sales out are lower than our sales to them. It's just a normal supply chain. I mean, you can, through any recession and heavy recovery, the lines cross at the bottom and cross at the top. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Sure, but I guess, what I'm wondering is, should we be looking at the improving distribution numbers as a function of an improving market, or is it a reflection of one or both of easier comps. Or the fact that as you said, they were probably purchasing below demand because of their inventories and just by the act of stepping up once their inventories just sort of got them where they want to, they would step up just by virtue of sort of normalizing that demand. I'm just trying to -- it sounds like you're being very positive about it. I'm trying to figure out if we're just talking about sort of a comp and normalization of spending or whether we're talking about actual demand in the distribution market getting better?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Both. Both. I mean, one is a function of the supply chain, which is, as I explained. The other one is a function of the market.

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Just a related question. A quick follow-up. To that distribution point. Is the activity that you're seeing making you think the end users changing their attitude towards holding inventory or increasing safety stock, or is this still just tracking the end market with the same inventory buffer? And do you think that provides an opportunity going forward to outgrow the market?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

Yes, I don’t -- we don't see anywhere where either the OEM or the distribution is building inventory at this point. Okay, so what we see -- we see that the OEM, as production goes up, they are buying to those levels. So to the extent that the growth is going to be -- the IPI is going to be where we think it's going to be, it's going to take until the second half of the year for us to see restocking.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And just to that point, following what happened in 2009 and what's happened over the prior year, do you think there's been any kind of permanent change in customer attitude towards holding things? Will they always have the distributor hold more inventory? Or do you think that the end user will start to rebuild that safety stock at some point?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst

I mean, I will believe, through the last 20 years of recessions, I believe that the whole supply chain always gets better with every recession. So which means that people don't hold as much inventory. Everybody gets more efficient. So there is a level of efficiency that is going to come out of this one to the extent that how much of that is real. I mean, we'll tell you in another year when we look back and say, "Okay, this is what it looks like." But there's no doubt that the OEMs and the distributors coming out of this are going to be more efficient. They're going to hold less inventory but they have to have some inventory.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have no further questions at this time. And I would like to turn the call back over to our presenters.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst

Thank you. This concludes our discussion. Please contact me, Quyhn McGuire, at (724) 539-6559 for any follow-up. Thank you for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Today's call will be available for replay beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today and lasting through midnight Eastern Time on November 24, 2013. The conference ID number for the replay is 77099289. The number to dial for the replay is 1 (855) 859-2056 or (404) 537-3406. This concludes today's discussion. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.