Earnings Labs

Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 24, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2013 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Quynh McGuire, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thank you, Regina. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's first quarter fiscal year 2013 results. We issued our quarterly earnings press release earlier today. You may access this announcement via our website at www.kennametal.com. Consistent with our practice in prior quarterly conference calls, we've invited various members of the media to listen in to this call. It's also being broadcast live on our website, and a recording of this call will be available on our site for replay through November 26, 2012. I'm Quynh McGuire, Director of Investor Relations for Kennametal. Joining me for our call today are Chairman, President and CEO, Carlos Cardoso; Vice President and CFO, Frank Simpkins; Vice President, Finance and Corporate Controller, Martha Bailey. Carlos and Frank will provide further explanation on the quarter's financial performance. After their remarks, we'll be happy to answer your questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. The discussion we'll have today contains comments that may constitute forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risk factors and uncertainties is detailed in Kennametal's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, Kennametal provided the SEC with a Form 8-K, a copy of which is currently available on our website. This enables us to discuss non-GAAP financial measures during this call in accordance with SEC Regulation G. This 8-K presents GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable to those non-GAAP financial measures, and it provides a reconciliation of those measures as well. I'll now turn the call over to Carlos.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

Thank you, Quynh. Hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As we enter the first quarter of fiscal year 2013, we expected to face some economic challenges. However, political uncertainty in the U.S., sovereign debt issues in the eurozone, pending leadership transition in China and slowing growth in emerging markets have curtailed demand in many of our served end markets more than we initially anticipated. For the September quarter, we reported earnings per share of $0.57 on $629 million of sales compared with prior year period of $0.88 on $659 million in sales. Despite the effect of the decreased volume and low absorption of manufacturing cost, we deliver an operating margin of 10.8% for the quarter when adjusted to exclude the Stellite acquisition. This margin performance is due to our relentless discipline on controlling costs. Also on an adjusted basis, we maintained strong return on invested capital of 14.6%. We have contingency plans to further reduce cost and maximize our cash flows. Although market conditions make organic growth more challenging in the near-term, we remain highly focused on cost control to deliver mid-teens EBIT margin for the full year. Also, Kennametal consistently generates strong cash flow each year throughout the economic cycle. As end-user demand softened during the quarter, particularly in the month of September, it was further intensified by inventory destocking. Our customers, particularly distributors, are working down their inventory levels. We believe that those challenges are near term in nature, fueled by uncertainty since we expect that pent-up demand to be realized in the future. As a consumables business, our products are required in manufacturing processes and must be replaced regularly. Sooner or later, customers need to replenish their inventories. At the International Manufacturing & Technology Show or IMTS, held in Chicago in September, we showcased innovative and…

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

Thank you, Carlos. I'll provide some comments on our performance for the September quarter, and then I'll move on to our revised outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2013. Some of my comments are non-GAAP, so please refer to the reconciliation schedules provided in our earnings release and related Form 8-K. Let me get straight to the point. September quarter was a challenging quarter given the macro environment, fueled by uncertainty in the U.S. and Asia, as well as fiscal concerns in Europe. We experienced weaker-than-expected demand in most markets, especially in our General Engineering and Earthworks businesses. September, which is typically our strongest month in the quarter, broke from past patterns. The month started off fine but deteriorated quickly as destocking continued and demand levels from transportation customers in Europe weakened further. In addition, there were further underground coal mine shutdowns and energy customers pushed out orders. These factors led to a weaker-than-anticipated September. And another headwind was foreign currency. However, that was as we expected. On the other hand, as Carlos pointed out, positive in the quarter was that prior restructuring programs and cost containment measures helped deliver double-digit adjusted operating margin of 10.8% for the base business despite all the commercial challenges of the quarter. We have initiated cost containment actions in all functions and are managing the business to market conditions while staying focused on our long-term strategies. Now I'll turn to the income statement. Sales for the quarter were $629 million compared to $659 million in the same quarter last year. Sales were down by 4%, driven by a 7% organic decline, 5% unfavorable foreign currency effect and 1% from fewer business days, partly offset by the acquisition contribution of 9% from the Stellite business. Looking at individual segments, our Industrial segment sales were $353…

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

Thank you, Frank. As we move forward, we will execute the same strategies that have transformed Kennametal into a company that can deliver profitable growth throughout the economic cycle. We'll continue to meet the demands of our customers by further balancing our served end markets, business mix and geographic presence. We'll continue to adhere to our cost control strategies, maintaining our reduced cost structure and further driving business efficiencies. In addition, we'll continue to capitalize on our strong balance sheet to increase shareholder value. We'll remain disciplined in our capital allocation process with priority uses of cash to include stock buybacks, acquisitions, capital expenditures and dividends. In summary, we will continually evaluate changing economic conditions around the world. We have always acknowledged the risks related to the macro uncertainty. We'll make tough decisions, as needed, related to capital expenditures, manufacturing production and headcount. In the meantime, we'll continue to focus on maintaining operational excellence in every area of our business. Thank you for your interest in Kennametal. We will now take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies and Company. Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: A couple of quick things if I may. It sounds like things really did sort of step down pretty meaningfully in September. We've heard that from other companies as well. I guess the first question is, is that continuing into October as far as you can see? And I'm curious how long you think this destocking kind of lasts, and I guess that’s the first question.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

Yes, Stephen, I think that you are correct. Things kind of, especially in the last 2 weeks of September, really declined unexpectedly. And it's really too early relative to October. I mean, a lot of activities. Just like in September, the last 2 quarters were the weeks that surprised us. It's too early to tell in October. It's definitely not getting worse but too early. Relative to the stock, we did a look at this last quarter. And typically, in the U.S., we thought that our distributors were carrying about 60 days worth of inventory. I mean this is an educated guess, in Europe about 90 days. And that was at the rates that at the growth rates that we have projected. So with the lower growth rates, we probably had a month to each one of those areas. And again, this is another educated guess. So I would say that we probably have -- starting in September, probably had about 3 months with the new growth rate in the U.S. channel and maybe 120 in Europe. So I mean that's kind of the best guess we can have at this point. Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: And I guess, given the sort of the downshift across what sounds like most of the company based on your comments, Carlos, about end markets, do you change your view of cash utilization at this point? Does share repurchase become more or less interesting given the uncertainty? Do the acquisitions get tougher to do? Do you sort of try to sit on your cash for a little while and make sure things don't get worse? Or am I thinking about it the wrong way?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

All of the above. I think the acquisitions are now going to get tougher. I think that this is -- we haven't seen really a change in sort of in the mode and in the space of the acquisition. Certainly, again, as I said, we have a strong balance sheet. We have committed to doing 2.5 million shares versus in this year. And we have -- as you know, we expanded our authorization. So we are willing and capable of doing more if that's the best -- in the best interest of the shareholders at this point.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Jefferies and Company

Yes. I would add, we have the balance sheet, as you know, to handle both buyback as well as acquisitions. And stock buyback could become more of a priority if the acquisitions -- if we can't tie them, right? So we'll continue to be aggressive with both.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Just a clarification on the tax rate at 25% for the year. Should we assume 25% every quarter? Or are you going to average 25%, and therefore you got to be by 26%, 27% somewhere out there?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Yes, to make it easy, it'll be 25% for the year and will probably, as best we know, 26% for the quarter 2 to 4 based upon the mix we have right now. So that's why it basically stayed at 25% despite the benefit in the first quarter.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Okay. And how big was the gain, the adjustment that you got in net settlement in the quarter?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities

About $3 million.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Now can you just help us a little bit on your organic growth outlook as you sort of interpreted? The first quarter was not exactly pretty, down 7%, but you had real ugliness in industrial. I guess industrial was way down 15%, I think it was, in that. Can you give us some idea of these segments, how you see the organic growth unfolding for the next couple of quarters? I mean I assume the second quarter will be a little bit better than the first quarter in industrial but not -- still probably down double digits. Is that sort of the way we should think about this then?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Yes, I would think the second quarter. It actually also has 1 more workday year-over-year, but sequentially, it's almost down 1 to 2 days the way the calendar fell this year. So, yes, I would expect a slight improvement, and that's why we looked at the 35-65 but when you really take it into consideration, we expect a little more growth in the second half and that's due to some of the things that we've talked about, WIDIA construction kicking in, in the March quarter. And we don't think destocking will go past in December, there may be some -- I don't want to call it restocking, but we think that cycle will be worked through. U.S. should pick up a little bit in a couple of other sectors, particularly, with the aerospace and defense. Stellite will have a stronger second half. They start flipping into the organic growth numbers, and then we expect -- the cost controls that we've put in place could lower our material costs, as well as lower interest expense across the board to help us drive particularly stronger earnings in the second half.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

And can you also, maybe, give us some help on operating profitability. I mean, if you want to make a mid-teens EBIT with the second quarter probably, again, a little bit better than the first quarter, looking, we are talking about over -- north of 15% in both sectors in the second half of the year, I mean, is that sort of the way the focus of the cost-cutting will be?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Yes. And by the way, that's normal. I mean, if you look at our -- for previous year -- years, I mean, the percentage margin grows every quarter sequentially. I mean the worst, the lower percentage is always in the first quarter and the highest percentage is always in the fourth quarter.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Longbow Securities

It's historical.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Yes. The other thing I'll add to that, too, Eli, particularly in the fourth quarter this year, we actually have 2 additional workdays. We'll get some additional benefits as sales slowly pick up, we'll get some additional absorption benefits in the fourth quarter. So the fourth quarter will be a little bit better profitability-wise/margin.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

And my final question, has pricing been held up throughout this whole process? Or any pricing issues taking place as we go through the weakness in the marketplace?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Longbow Securities

Absolutely staying. The pricing is stuck.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Securities

So pricing is flat, I mean, there's no change in pricing? I mean, to this point?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Longbow Securities

No.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Can you talk a little bit about where exactly, both by end market and by region, where you saw the greatest surprise in decline in demand as we went through September?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · JPMorgan

So by region, the highest decline was North America followed by Europe, and we actually had slightly positive in Asia. By end market, the worst decline was at general engineering, followed by Earthworks and then, energy and transportation and aerospace is actually positive. Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And Carlos, we are now in October 23 and just to follow-up on Steve's question, it doesn't seem like we're too early in October, given that you get daily order rates. Why do you feel like it's too early to tell how October is looking at this point?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · JPMorgan

Because in September, we experienced the largest decline in the last 2 weeks of the month. So I mean, that -- we would have a better idea if there was not this destocking phenomenon going on. So I mean, as Frank said, we think that sequential -- the second quarter is going to be better. It's not getting worse, but I'm hesitant to talk about knowingly that just in September -- actually, when we started the September month, we were -- our indicators were still showing us that we're not going to be too far from where we needed to be. Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And just as a follow-up to that, given that you have excess raw material inventories, your customers are destocking and your decrementals were quite weak, how should we think about modeling the decrementals by segment going forward?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · JPMorgan

Well, I think that decrementals will be more pervasive in the industrial side, but I don't think Ann, we’ll have as much destockings we experienced in the industrial sector in the September quarter. It should start subsizing in the December quarter, but we don't get the big benefit on the infrastructure side given the larger material content product. But if -- when we have the volume, I would say, it's a little bit stronger in the industrial side, particularly, for the whole year compared to what we have in the first quarter if things don't improve. We're looking at cost cutting across the organization. And with the little volume, given our restructuring programs that we did, we should see a quick turnaround if we get a little bit of a benefit.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · JPMorgan

Again, I continue to emphasize that at the current levels that we deliver -- sales level, in the quarter which was very low, we still were around 11% EBIT margin. And the first quarter is always the lowest quarter, the lowest margin quarter. Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Yes, but then the issue is that, going forward, your compounding the problem with having excess inventories. Most of the inventory in the industrial sectors, in such, where you saw most of the destocking?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Julian Mitchell with Credit Suisse. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: So just a follow-up on the point on industrial decremental margins and thinking about the incremental in the second half. So I guess, you did about a 58% decremental or something in industrial in Q1. If you think about Q2, it sounds like sales will be down a bit decrementally, and it maybe more like 40% because with the underabsorption related to inventory destocking is less severe as a headwind and then, you're looking at kind of 30%-plus incremental for the second half, as sales start to rebound. Is that a reasonable view of what your expectations are for the industrial business?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Credit Suisse

I don't think it's unreasonable to that point but you can get the guidance number right? What we took down, you can see the sales, so it was a pretty big haircut from where we're at, but it should improve particularly in the second half. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. But I guess the key point is, I mean, you're saying that, that 58% decremental, I mean, is a function of a lot of underabsorption because of destocking and also, I guess, the cost-cutting measures haven't started to come through yet. I mean, did you start to take cost out measures in the September quarter itself, or those are things that you're mulling over now to put in place in the next 6 months?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Credit Suisse

Yes, they really started, I would say, late in the September quarter. It's starting to gain some traction. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. Got it. And then just in terms of the -- I guess, the regional expectations, you've given your organic sales growth outlook for the year, globally. Could you just give a little bit color on each region, just very top down, I guess Americas, Europe and Asia?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Credit Suisse

Okay. So I'll give you the rationale for the year. We expect North America to be slightly positive for the year. We expect Europe to be negative, and we expect Asia to actually have mid-single-digit growth. Julian Mitchell - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And I guess just a final follow-up. You talked about the -- the slowdown was pretty severe, almost significant U.S. general engineering, there's a subsegment in the second half of September. And the drop-off, I guess, there was nothing, obviously, from the outside that you could see. I mean, issues in Europe and China have been going on for sort of 6 to 9 months. The PMIs in the U.S. had taken a leg down already back in July. So could you -- what sense did you get from the distribution channel as to why, suddenly, the second half of September something changed?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Credit Suisse

Well I mean, again, 80% of the orders that we get in a month, we ship within the month. So it just gives you an idea that we really don't have, other than the leading indicators in the model that we have, I think everyone was surprised -- and as you heard the earnings from the calls already that took place. So I mean, I don't know how to explain it any other way that the orders, as a result of destocking, people just got really nervous and they'll go down and they'll go up at the same speed, actually. That's why it's hard to tell how quickly -- we believe there's pent-up demand. The question is, is it going to come this quarter, is it going to come next quarter or -- all the indicators that we see is that things will come back in the second half -- in our second half of the year, probably not very strong but...

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

I want to follow up on a component of some previous questions, specifically, the gross profit contribution margin. If I'm correct -- and I'm going back a couple of years, but I think you provided a longer-term incremental gross profit margin target of about 40% for both up and down demand environments. And the reported quarter number was basically a little more than triple that, but there was a lot of stuff going on in the quarter. So if we adjust currency acquisition and destocking out of the performance, what was the core gross profit incremental?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

I would say it's north of 35%. I have to go back and factor in the currency impacts on a couple there but Stellite would add over 100 basis points itself. And the destocking is always tough in the quarter because of the European holiday in the month of August. So this quarter is a little bit unusual on a standalone basis, but it would be north of 35%. It would probably be 200 to 300 basis points better off the top of my head.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then on the cost control actions, I'm just curious how you're going about it, given that you have within your guidance, you're expecting kind of another weak quarter in front of us and then some improvement in the second half. What sort of cost control actions are you putting in place?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Well, the first thing that you do is you take direct labor, right? Because it's -- you man for the volume that you have. So that's the first thing that you do, and we've done that. And so we have adjusted -- we are adjusted for the current forecast that we have. And then due to things like -- all the controllable expenses, you look at that and you reduce those, and those are pretty straightforward to do.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

That would include hiring freezes, moving investments postponing -- looking at all the discretionary stuff within your control and then longer-term, looking at the structure of the business.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then lastly, and I don't mean this in an overly negative way, but given the choppiness of the environment right now, I'm just curious as to why you didn't do what some other companies did, and just assumed no improvement for the fiscal second half?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Well, because I mean we have our models, Andy, and our models work 95% of the time. So I mean, we just can't go out and do what other companies are doing. We got to do what our models are telling us to do. So we have very robust models. And again, you can question well the models didn't work for this quarter. But generally speaking, we are on 95% of the time. So we've got to continue to, obviously, improve those models but stick with the models that have worked for us.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

I'd like to address the industrial segment sales decline maybe a different way to try to better understand the destocking that you're seeing. Is there any way to divide the decline that you saw between the sales decline seen as direct customers versus the distribution channel?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes, we really don't have that broken down. I mean it's hard to tell from the -- we don't get all that data from our distributors, to be honest with you.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

And I guess your sales into the distributors, so was it something that the distributors were off 20%, 30% then the direct customers were down only less than half that?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Well, I think the...

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

We know the distribution was down higher. I don't know what that number is.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Okay. And do you have what the WIDIA performance was in the quarter?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes, the WIDIA performance was mid- to high-single digit growth. By the way, it proves that our WIDIA strategy continues to be good.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

And then just to get back to the inventory question, I guess, tungsten's down quite a bit in the stock market. It looks like you guys ramped up your raw material inventories a lot. How should I think about the earnings contribution from that, as you start to work through those inventories?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

We have, I mean, it's not that we -- we have purchase commitments that we have to honor with our suppliers and it is the lifeblood of our manufacturing organization, but we've tried to factor in our $60 million reduction, that was in our original plan and that was more focused on the finished goods in the [indiscernible] . Raw material doesn't go bad and over time, we don't pay for what the market price is immediately, so our lag was at 1 quarter in the past, maybe it's 1 to 2 quarters as we work through the raw materials.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

And by the way, the raw materials -- we're going to have a build in the raw materials from lower cost in the second half that I would think that would have offset the -- or more than offset any inventory reduction impact.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Walt Liptak with Barrington Research.

Walter S. Liptak - Barrington Research Associates, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Barrington Research

I wanted to ask about the guidance and the 65% second half, 35% first half. So it looks like you're thinking that this is going to be the low EPS quarter for the year, and that we continue to move up on EPS basis, second quarter, and then in the back half?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Barrington Research

Correct.

Walter S. Liptak - Barrington Research Associates, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Barrington Research

Okay. And the inventory destocking, is something changed -- we saw a destocking back in '09, too, that was pronounced. Is this the same sort of a phenomena or do you think something's changed with the way that distributors and OEs are stocking and looking at their cutting tool inventory?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Barrington Research

Well, I think that our -- the supply chain always, after a recession, always gets more efficient. So I think there is less inventory in the supply chain. But I think that one of the things that's different now versus 2009, 2009 was just a recession driven by consumer and all that stuff, and financial crisis and so forth. I think that there is a lot of uncertainty now. So I think there's pent-up demand. So once the elections are over and we're probably going to see some positive coming back starting 2013. But again, everyone has an opinion and it's our view.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Barrington Research

Walt, on the destocking, I think we also had an unusual quarter. Let me say it, one of our large key distributors bought a lot last year because of the acceleration. We were removing some private label, so some distributors had to take that into consideration, and some had to deal with the transition out of the WIDIA brand. So on a year-over-year basis, that large distributor, I think we had a large and unfairly comparison year-over-year, which we don't expect to recur as we go out -- so we know that, that destocking should push itself through.

Walter S. Liptak - Barrington Research Associates, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Barrington Research

Okay, I understand. So but -- in general, you think the -- maybe starting in the third, second quarter and probably in the third quarter, we start to see inventories build back up, that's sort of what -- that's what's in your model?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Barrington Research

Correct.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Barrington Research

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research.

Brian Michael Rayle - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Most of my questions have been answered, but I guess we can go through the process of -- obviously, you guys lowered your cost structure in the first quarter, where that is, is that -- are we're almost done with that or are we going to see that carry into the second quarter. And then, I guess, on the optimistic side, how quickly can that ramp up? I mean, what kind of parameters exist for orders going either positive or negative on how you can ramp your overall production base?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes. We have not reduced physical capacity, okay? So we took our -- we have laid off hourly people. And obviously, if things -- if demand starts coming back in January, I mean, we'll bring those people back. So capacity is there so we can ramp up, and we don't intend or have plans to reduce capacity at this point. So we would be very flexible and be able to ramp up pretty quickly.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes. And all the discretionary items on a previous question, we started in the first quarter, they will continue to gain momentum as we go in the out period. And if we need to add people because business comes back that’s a relatively easy comparison because the key thing is, here, we didn't let our cost creep back into the organizational infrastructure. We did take out the fixed cost that are permanent. And if we take out the Stellite acquisition, our headcount is basically where it was at the end of 2009, so we're purposely cautious on adding people back so we don't have the same situation that we've gone through the past cycles. So we think the cost control, the discipline we have now will pay dividends as we go out.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Stephen Stone with Sidoti & Company. Stephen Stone - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Just, I guess, a quick question. Most of my questions have been answered, but as far as the WIDIA, how large of a percentage of revenue is that?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

About 10%. Stephen Stone - Sidoti & Company, LLC: 10%. And the relationship with Fastenal, how's that progressing according to plans? Did this destocking -- any of that's changing this, or??

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

No, we are…

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

It’s going the other way.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

It's actually above our expectations. Stephen Stone - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. Any...?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

It's just -- Steve, on -- at Fastenal, they had a pretty good first quarter. If you look at the numbers, and they continue to focus on the [indiscernible]. We have a good relationship there as well. As they continue to grow faster, they will be, definitely, a pull through. And I think, to Carlos' point, it was a little bit faster than we had anticipated. So that's a positive as we go forward. Stephen Stone - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Okay. Any plans on more distribution with WIDIA pushing out Fastenal, increasing that relationship, anything with that?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Yes, that's the plan. I mean, we have -- both Fastenal and Kennametal together have very aggressive expectations for the future. I think we have a lot of runway left.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Did you give the September monthly order number? Sorry if I missed it.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

We didn't provide the stand-alone September number but it's a high-single digit decline.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

High-single digit decline, and that's the rolling 3, right? Or is that standalone?

Quynh McGuire

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

That's the standalone, which contributed to the negative 7 organic decline.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Got it. And just to go back to that growth -- the negative 7% another way, it was -- I know it's hard to quantify, but was half of that end-market decline versus destocking or is there any way you can frame up the magnitude of the 2 kind of buckets?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes, I think we'll be speculating at this time. It's really hard to quantify. I mean, I would tell you that 40% of our sales as a company goes through distribution, and the destocking was higher in the distribution side.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right. And just one last one, you have a target of growing in 2x to 3x global IPI, as you plugged the numbers into your model at the end of the quarter, what was your estimate for global IPI in year 1Q. Just trying to get a sense for how much you underperformed in the sense that, that might mean reverting?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

I would say in the first quarter, we basically have very low single-digit growth. Very similar to fourth quarter, that's how we had our plan built for organic 1. We basically -- we're at pretty much the same point in the first quarter. And then we hit the -- what drove the overall business down was obviously, what happened as we said on the call with the Earthworks side, particularly, the underground coal mining and that destocking, particularly at one of our large customers that Kennametal that’ll dissipate as we go forward.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

Right. And -- but do you have an estimate for what global IPI itself was? I mean, obviously, industrial production comps were positive in the U.S. in the first quarter, how are you thinking about what the total IP number was?

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

We were just looking at those numbers, I mean, I don't have that [indiscernible] global insight yet.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

And when we looked at -- when we developed the plan it was, on average, between 2 to 3 global IP. And that's how we got to 5% to 7% outlook for the year.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

But we don't have the actual quarter-to-quarter yet.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel Eisner with William Blair. Samuel H. Eisner - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Just had a couple of quick questions here. Could you maybe tease out what your utilization rates were, either on the corporate whole or, at least, across the 2 segments?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Yes, I would say in the low 70s. Samuel H. Eisner - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: And how does that compare, I guess, to where they were last quarter?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

On the fourth quarter, we have a lot more workdays, I would say they were in the high 70s. Samuel H. Eisner - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: All right. And then when -- if I look at kind of your mid-teens EBIT margin target for the year, is there a way to kind of parse out how much volume recovery, I guess, is embedded in getting there from the 10% that you have -- or I guess 10 and change that you have right now, how much is price, and I would say, how much would be internally driven?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Price will be not much, on average, I think we said at the beginning of the year, maybe 1%. And then, it will be volume, as the main driver and then, our cost discipline and actions we initiated.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Well, there are certain inherent costs that happened in the first quarter that does not take place in the rest of the year.

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Stock comp and all that...

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Yes. You can always go look at historicals and you'll see the natural gains from sequential quarter-to-quarter. Samuel H. Eisner - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Got you. And then just lastly, on the cost programs that you got, I guess, you put in place towards the end of this quarter, how much would you say would be fixed versus variable, or is everything variable where it’d come back on volumes coming back?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Samuel Eisner with William Blair

Everything is variable at this point.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Holden Lewis with BB&T. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: I just wanted to ask about a couple of items that sort of impact -- was there any sort of purchase accounting or integration expense that was unusual related to Stellite in the quarter?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · BB&T

No. I mean, we provided the 15 to 25 net of some of the integration costs, that was in that program. Everything is going pretty much on track. To your point they will subside or will get lesser in the second half, that's why we have Stellite stronger earnings contribution 2 half have versus 1 half. But we're going through the purchase accounting and it's pretty much done. The amortization's there, the step-up in inventory has been burned through, so the only thing you really have left is amortization and the integration costs, which are pretty much on-plan at this point. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then I wanted to ask about you kept the guidance for Stellite's accretion the same yet it was, I think, $0.01 in the quarter and you did note that perhaps the revenues were coming in less than expected. Was there just some conservatism built in there to overcome the revenues, or are you doing less in terms of maybe not being as aggressive from a cost standpoint given the environment? How do we maintain it?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · BB&T

Well, on the high end of the range, we would have with the volumes that we were anticipating, we would have been potentially north side of that. But we've done some good restructuring things in the fourth quarter that are paying some benefits here going forward. And as we start to rationalize the ERP system, with a better visibility, we think there's further cost benefits in the second half that are going to come in. So we've compensated top line softness with a little bit ahead on the synergies going through the business. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then the second piece was sort of the -- you anticipated reducing inventories in this quarter, that was your original goal. Obviously, it went up, it looks like work in progress more than anything else -- raw materials, more than anything else, but has this kind of -- as the dynamics in your inventories that you still want to comp, but didn't make progress in Q1, does that mean that we sort of pushed out the negative effects on productions, so now instead of maybe first half of the year, it's going to drag throughout the year? Is this -- is that how that dynamic is going to work?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · BB&T

I don't think it's going to have a major impact. As Carlos said, if the prices are down, we'll get a little bit more benefit on that side. But the raw materials of the entire -- I said it's almost entirely raw material, so what we factored in before, I think, still holds true.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Security.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Security

Just a quick follow-up, guys. And it goes back to the inventory -- taking out inventory at the firm. How much below sales do you expect to produce in the second quarter, or rest of the year? Can you give us some idea of what the impact will be, why you're taking inventories out because -- it's quite a program that does have an impact on absorption?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Longbow Security

Eli, I don't have that number off the top of my head. We'll have to get that offline for you.

Operator

Operator

Next question will come from the line of Tim Bui with Third Avenue Management.

Tim Bui - Third Avenue Management, LLC

Analyst · Third Avenue Management

Could you please address the tax rate issue? How long can you keep it at 25%? Will it go up in the future year?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Third Avenue Management

Based upon the structure and the model we have today, we think 25, I'd like to say, it's higher over time. As Europe comes back, that will drop it down. We have other components in our portfolio, like Stellite, that's not included in the model which will help as we get out to fiscal '14 and beyond to help mitigate any potential weakness there. But we feel pretty confident based upon the mix of our business portfolio that, worst case, mid-20s is a reasonable number.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Third Avenue Management

The 25% is in the high end, we expect it to be lower than that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

Adam William Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research

My question was answered. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies & Company. Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: My follow-up, I think you've gotten 2/3 of the way there, but I was just trying to get a sense of the cost-cutting benefits in the second half and, I guess, we haven't really put any numbers around that yet. Is that something we can do?

Frank P. Simpkins

Analyst · Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies & Company

We haven't provided that. We typically don't.

Carlos M. Cardoso

Analyst · Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies & Company

I mean, this is just normal numbers. Yes, normal like Frank said, we don't travel as much, all that stuff, which is really like-- we adjust the cost to the level of business, that's why it's indirect cost. We feel really good about our fixed cost. And again, this is another thing our fixed cost is driving. Stephen, you know that before, at this level of sales, we would never been at double-digit EBIT margin and that is a testimony to our fixed costs. So we feel good about the fixed cost, and the variable cost is variable cost. I mean, it's adjusted to the level of sales.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets

This concludes our discussion. Please contact me, Quynh McGuire, at (724) 539-6559 for any follow-up questions. Thank you for joining us.

Operator

Operator

Today's call will be available for replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today, and lasting through midnight Eastern Time on November 24, 2012. The conference ID number for the replay is 31340376. The number to dial for the replay is (855) 859-2056 or (404) 537-3406. This concludes today's discussion. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.