James Yardley - President Pipeline Group
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks Mark, on slide 16 the Pipeline Group had a strong third quarter. Financially our EBIT results were excellent up 9% from last year's third quarter. Operationally we continue to see very solid volume growth across our pipes. On the regulatory front we received final approval from FERC on our EPNG rate case settlement, which is a major settlement. We also received FERC certificates on both the Southeast Supply Header Pipeline and on our next expansion on Elba Island together with the related Elba Express offtake pipeline. And we continue to make significant progress in advancing our $2 billion backlog of expansion projects. Slide17 on the financials; another excellent quarter EBIT was up $22 million compared to the third quarter 2006 and year-to-date up $72 million or 8% verses 2006 year-to-date. Nearly all the increase in the third quarter EBIT was due to higher revenues primarily expansions on TGP, CIG and SNG and from increased capacity sales realization and throughput. Capital expenditures were higher in this year's third quarter versus last year's primarily due to greater spending on various growth projects. And throughput as you can see was up significantly in the next chart, on chart on slide 18 looks at this more closely. So, on slide 18, the increased throughput year-to-date is driven by both supplier-related and demand-related activities. On the supply side, in the Rockies CIG, Wyoming Interstate and Cheyenne Plains all benefited from a continued and substantial increase in Rockies production. Also from our Piceance expansion project on WIC. On the demand side in the east, we've seen significantly higher power generation loads on both SNG and TGP. This was somewhat due to a warmer summer and the drought in the southeast. But also simply the increased utilization of gas-fired plants that capture most of the underlying growth in electricity demand. Also on the demand side CIG benefited from the colder weather in the first quarter along the front ridge. So, in total throughput is up nicely, year-to-date 6%. On slide 19 this was a little more color on our over $2 billion backlog of committed growth projects. Projects that we have firmly in hand and there all essentially fully contracted long term. This slides schedules up the project backlog by expected in service day over the next few years, and a couple of comments on the slide, first, we've been very active and successful this year in placing projects and services. We now completed five growth projects in 2007 including TGP Northeast ConneXion New England expansion, which went into service last week, right on time to meet increased winter heating demand. I will speak further about this project in just a minute. So these five completed projects might drop other backlog, backlog remains over $2 billion as Doug said, because we have been successful in landing additional new business, signed long-term preceding agreements to support further expansions. The new projects on this list are, large SNG SESH system three project for southern company, the TGP Carthage project for Entergy and the WIC Medicine Bow Expansion. Second I think you can see that our growth is varied and diverse. We have expansion projects on our pipes across the country, some are demand related either for power gens or the LDC market and some are driven by supply. Out of the Rockies, Deepwater Gulf or LNG related. The commonality across these projects is that they are all primarily straight forward expansions or extensions of our existing infrastructure. So, we have been busy in 2007, executing on this project backlog moving projects the regulatory approval and constructions. But you see we remained very busy throughout 2008 and 2009 and beyond, construction is underway on several of these projects listed including our 2010 Elba Expansion project. We just program here to build our fifth tank class month, immediately after we received FERC certificate in September. Let me emphasize again on this chart what Doug said upfront. This slide shows our committed projects only, those for which have binding long-term preceding agreement with customers. We have numerous other growth projects under development for which we do not yet have PAs. These projects under development are a varied group, some are small bolt-on expansions of our existing pipes, some are very large, and they are all across the country and will have new for you soon on some of them. On slide 20, on each of the last two quarterly calls we have highlighted particular growth projects, on the first quarter call, we reviewed the Citrus, pipeline to North Florida, and then the Kanda Lateral project in the Rockies last quarter. Today we discussed two projects on TGP, our Deepwater Link project in the Gulf, and our ConneXion New England project. The Deepwater Link project shown here is TGP shallow water ConneXion from the Independents Trail Pipeline into TGP. Independents Trail runs from the deepwater Independents Hub up to the shallow water, and the Independents Hub platform is located in 8000 feet of water in Mississippi Canyon approximately 200 miles, Southeast of New Orleans. It's the deepest water producing platform in the world. Through Independents Trail NTGPs Deepwater Link, the Hub is solely connected to TGP. Gas began flowing in mid July and has ramped up steadily to approximately 700 MMcf per day now, and is expected to reach approximately 1 Bcf a day by the end of the year, all flowing into TGP. So it's a lot of gas supply for the TGP system primarily moving up our 500 line and the projects strategically positions TGP to capitalize on future deepwater developments in the Eastern Gulf. On slide 21; at the other end of the TGP system, we have just placed in service our ConneXion New England Expansion project. All of the expansion capacity has been fully subscribed under long-term contracts primarily by subsidiaries of national grid and energy east. The expansion facilities include additional compression at seven compressive stations, six existing ones and one new one, a total of 55,000 horsepower of additional compression. The project was placed in service November 1 which is actually one year ahead of the original schedule anticipated by our customers and by us. We were able to advance the in-service state by deciding early on in the development process and a close coordination with our customers to order the compressor units prior to having regulatory approvals. In combination with an accelerated installation effort, we successfully advanced the project a year for the benefit of our customers. This project is typical of many of our midsized expansion projects across our pipes. It's a straightforward expansion of existing pipeline. It's fully subscribed long term with high quality customers placed in service timely to meet market needs and providing good solid returns for El Paso. In summary on slide 22, our pipelines continue to deliver and we remain on track for another great year. We are executing on our $2 billion of committed growth projects and we have more under development. And with that I'll turn it over to Brent on E&P.
Brent J. Smolik - President El Paso Exploration & Production: Thanks Jim and good morning everyone. I want to begin by taking a moment to briefly reflect on the past year, since I arrived at El Paso. Our E&P business has improved substantially and I want thank the entire E&P organization for their hard work and their commitment. In just four quarters we have improved the consistency and the predictability of our performance. And we are on track to meet our 2007 goals. We further matured our organizational capability which is reflected in our activity levels and in our results, and we began the year focused on high grading our portfolio. In the first half of the year, the E&P team worked hard to determine where we were advantaged and where we are not, and which let us to the divestures that we announced in August into the acquisition of Peoples Energy, and then finally we have advanced our projects in Brazil and Egypt. These achievements are all consistent with our overarching goal that we set to improve our credibility, visibility and our capability as an organization. So let's look at the quarter results on slide 24. We produced about 850 million a day and including our proportionate share at Four Star, which is a 5% increase over Q3 of '06 and through nine months we are up about 7% compared to last year, and we are on-track to meet our full-year production guidance. Our capital program is also on target for the year. It is about $1.7 billion excluding the Peoples acquisition and we are holding our capital flat despite some delays and some overruns in the Gulf of Mexico and in Brazil. Now I am proud of the fact that we have executed on our capital plans in a tough market. It took a lot of hard work by many people in the organization, including the 220 new employees that we have hired in E&P this year and that number includes the peoples and employees that have just joined us at the beginning of the fourth quarter. We delivered strong unit costs, unit cash costs performance in Q3 and the quarter was a big one for our portfolio high grading efforts. Finally we made significant progress in Brazil and I will update you on both of our exploratory projects in just a moment. In total, E&P continued to deliver on our commitments and if you move to slide 25, you can see the E&P segment reported third quarter EBIT as, Doug, pointed out of $232 million which is a 65% increase over last year, that increase is primarily due to the replaces higher realize prices, lower cost, and higher volumes. Our gas hedges have generated a significant amount incremental margin this year and they added about $1.19 per Mcfe to our realized price in the quarter. CapEx for the quarter excluding acquisitions was $349 million, where we also booked just over $880 million for the acquisition of Peoples. And as I mentioned earlier, our production unit cost are both highlights, our production and unit cost are highlights for the quarter, and I'll review both of those in a bit more detail. But virtually every metric of our performance improved versus a year ago. Slide 26 shows a breakdown of volumes by region for the past five quarters. As expected for the third quarter, production was down a bit from the second quarter but only slightly and again versus the first nine months of 2006, volumes were up about 7%. All our domestic divisions grew compared to last year's 3Q. Onshore continued its strong performance at $423 million a day for the quarter. This is down slightly from the second quarter, but that was largely due to a decline in our non-operated Four Star joint venture. The onshore division is showing the ability to increase activity levels over the past several quarters, and has doubled production over the last three years. Sales taxes grew about 12% compared to the third quarter of '06. This is due to the acquisition that we completed in January in sales taxes and then we... in our better expect performance in Thomson and Jeffery's fields. The Gulf of Mexico volumes improved about 8% versus last years 3Q and slightly exceeded our expectations for the quarter. As we said before the Gulf of Mexico volume should normally be in about the $175 million to $200 million a day range, and they are back down to that level now and will remain that for the remainder of the year. So in total the fourth quarter we expect to produce about $840 million a day or above on our existing assets, plus remember we will add the Peoples volumes of roughly $70 million a day. Slide 27 shows our cash cost components for the quarter compared to prior periods. As we have stated all year at cost, both expense and capital are major focus for the company and a key part of us becoming a top tier E&P Company. In Q3 our total unit cost, cash costs were $1.77 per Mcfe which continued our trend of improvement throughout the year. Lifting costs were about $0.83 in the quarter, that's a decrease of 13% from last year's average and an improvement due really to the continued focused on LOE, lower hurricane related cost and to a decrease in our work over expenses. Our G&A unit costs were $0.64, that's a decrease of about $0.02 from last quarter. But we expect our run rate to be a bit higher on a going forward basis on unit cost basis. Now remember versus 2006, approximately half of that G&A increase is related to restructuring of our marketing support functions and moving many of the marketing employees to the E&P Company. The other portion of the increase is primarily related to higher staffing levels in general as we increase our drilling and activity levels. We expect total cash costs for the year to be in the $1.85 to $1.95 range, again right in line with the targets that we set for ourselves at the beginning of the year. Turning to slide 28, our activity levels are also on track for the year. We have drilled about 542 gross wells for the first nine months of the year and we have achieved a 98% success rate. Overall, our drilling results have been on target in terms of success rate with the exception of our Gulf of Mexico South Louisiana division, and there our success rate on new drill wells is 418 for the first nine months. However, we still have the fourth quarter to go and we already know that we will have a few more successes like on the second well that West Cameron 75 for example. Our long-term track record on new drills in the division is being closer to 70% success. So it maybe a couple of wells off of that historical success record by year end. Also we are happy with... very happy with the success in Brazil and Pinaúna expiration wells, where we had a lot of difficulty drilling those wells and they took longer and therefore cost us more than we had planned. The activity there, the rig is essentially complete and will be demobbed this week. We have captured a number of key learnings from that program. You learn a lot when you drill tough wells like that and we will integrate those learnings into the field development program, when we go forward with that drilling. Our capital drilling program for the year is complete in many of the project areas and we are actively planning for our 2008 programs, some of which will begin ramping up later this year. Turning to slide 29, one of the biggest achievements for the third quarter was advancing our portfolio high grading efforts. We closed the Peoples acquisition of September 28th and it was important for us to get started quickly on those properties. We have spent about six weeks in the pre-closing period, planning the integration, and we had an integration team ready to go as soon as we closed. The integration activities are well underway across the board in our operations area and in the administrative back-office functions. Because of the efforts of our E&P organization, we will be largely completed with the integration by year-end. Operationally we are maintaining the combined pre-deal activity levels as we had planned and unfortunately we've retained most of the Peoples employees and we are happy to have their skills and experience on the El Paso team. Well we are also making progress on our planned divesture activities. Our intend is to market the Gulf of Mexico, South Texas and various onshore properties separately and we believe that strategy allows us to maintain the flexibility that we need and to customize the packages to fit the logical buyers for each of those areas. We hope to receive bids by year end and to close by the end of Q1, 2008. In total, we expect to sell up to about 300 Bs [ph] of reserves which is higher than we have previously announced. But that's the same set of assets, we have just now updated the reserves in inventory for our 2007 activities. Internationally, we also announced last quarter that we are selling down 50% of our Pinaúna project. That process in still underway with bids due also before the end of the year. The timing of that closing will be dependent on government approvals, but we hope to have the sale completed by the first half of 2008. So, let's turn to a brief update on the Brazilian exploration beginning on slide 30. First the Pinaúna project, I trust that you all saw yesterday's announcement that we drilled two successful exploration wells at Pinaúna. Like I said the drilling was challenging and time consuming but the good news is that we have extended the original field limits with those wells. The Cacau-1 well oil as we expected and we confirmed that with core data and we just completed testing the Açaí well and that well tested gas and condensate from the top of the Açaí structure, it rates over 10 million a day which were limited by the test equipment that we had on location. We are evaluating the test results and we are also evaluating the possible development scenarios for the field. And based on our earlier assessment, we now believe that the entire field area contains up to about 90 million barrels of all equivalent, which includes the 12 million barrels of crude reserves that we currently have booked. No doubt knowing our final development plan at this time, it's hard to predict the timings of first oil, but it's likely to be sometime in late 2008 or early 2009. Turning the slide 31, I would also like to update you on the Bia project. As you know, the 168 well was a delineation well that followed Petrobras's discovery. The 164 well to the south on their 100% owned block. In the May release, Petrobras noted that we had encountered roughly 130 meters of gas bearing sand in the 168 well, we've just finished drilling and testing that well in September and then we jointly agreed to drill an additional delineation well to the north, the 177 well which is about 3 kilometers further north in order to further evaluate the structure. The rig began drilling in September. It has already penetrated the top of the objective section which came in structurally higher than we had mapped. And it will take a few more weeks to finish and drilling... finish drilling and then some additional time if we choose to test the well. We are thrilled with our Bia and our Pinaúna exploration success in Brazil. It speaks to the potential of our exploration program here and as a reminder we got about 25 undrilled prospects, in various stages of maturation in Brazil. So, moving to slide 32, we are obviously pleased with our third quarter E&P performance and with our performance over the past year. We delivered another strong quarter of production performance, which keeps us on track to deliver our full year guidance. The capital program is on plan and we expect some improvement at our cash cost and we achieved those and that will remain a key priority going forward. We have made tremendous progress on our portfolio high grading efforts by adding the right kinds of assets to our inventory, and by advancing our divesture process and then finally, we've had significant exploration success now at Brazil. So, our third quarter performance like our performance in the past several quarters should hopefully give you some comfort and confidence that El Paso E&P is moving in the right direction. So, now I would like to turn back to Doug for closing comments.