Bren Higgins
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, Rick and good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, KLA-Tencor delivered another outstanding period of financial performance and operational execution in the December quarter and in calendar 2017. Shipments, revenues, non-GAAP gross margin and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each came in at the upper end or above the range of guidance and achieved new records in both the December quarter and for the calendar year. Revenue in the quarter was 976 million. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.97 and would have been $1.83 at the guided tax rate of 18% for the quarter. GAAP loss per diluted share was $0.86 in December, largely resulting from a charge taken in the quarter for the transition tax on historical cumulative earnings outside of the US and tax asset and liabilities revaluation related to the new tax law. In our press release, you will find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. With the exception of when I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release. Now, turning to highlights of the December quarter, demand environment in terms of shipments. Total shipments were 1.041 billion in December, up 7% sequentially and finishing above the guided range for the quarter as customer pull for tool deliveries across the product portfolio drove upside to the quarter. Looking forward, we are modeling March quarter shipments to be in the range of 945 million to 1.025 billion. Our expectation is for shipment levels for the first half of calendar '18 to be roughly flat compared to the second half of 2017 and with low to mid single digit have to have growth planned in the second half of the calendar year. For the full year, shipments are expected to grow in the high single digits compared with 2017. Memory was 71% of shipments and in line with our forecast for the quarter. Demand was roughly evenly split between DRAM and NAND. Memory will continue to dominate the system shipment mix in the March quarter with memory shipments expected to be approximately 70% of the quarter total. Foundry was 20% of shipments in December, as expected and Foundry is forecasted to be about 15% of shipments in March. Logic was 9% of shipments in the December quarter and is currently forecasted to be 15% in March. In terms of the approximate distribution of shipments by product group, wafer inspection was 47% of shipments; patterning was 30%. Patterning includes orders for reticle inspection. Service was 21% and non-semi was approximately 2%. I'll turn now to further details of the income statement. As I mentioned in my highlights, revenue was 976 million in December. We expect revenue to be in the range of 970 million to 1.03 billion in the March quarter. In terms of half to half expectations for 2018, we are currently modeling revenue in the second half of the year to grow in the low to mid-single digits versus the first half of the calendar year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 64.6%, a new record for the company and above the guided range of 63% to 64%, largely as a result of a stronger than modeled product mix. We expect gross margin to be in the range of 63.5% to 64.5% in the March quarter. In the earnings call last October, we provided gross margin expectations of 63% to 64% for calendar year 2018 based on our expectations for revenue growth, customer acceptance of key products, cost management and execution and the mix of system business in the year. Looking ahead, we believe our gross margins will likely bias towards the higher end of this guided range in 2018. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were 262 million in Q4, up as expected compared with the September quarter due to expenses related to advanced technology development programs for EUV lithography. Non-GAAP operating margin was flat compared to Q3 at 37.7%. We are currently sizing operating expense levels to be approximately 255 million in the March quarter. Beyond that, our outlook is for quarterly operating expenses to be in the $260 million range throughout calendar year 2018 based on our expectations for high single digit revenue growth for the year and consistent with our published business model. Given the strong gross margin profile I referenced, we should continue to deliver operating margins at the higher - or the upper end or above this model for the foreseeable future. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 11.5% in the quarter, resulting from the required true-up of our tax rate estimate for fiscal year '18, ending in June due to the reduction in the US federal tax rate from 35% to 21%, effective January 1. Included in the GAAP results is an estimated charge of approximately 442 million associated with the new tax law passed by Congress and signed by the President in late December. The vast majority of the charge is related to the transition tax for the accumulative historical earnings the company earned outside of the US. In addition, we also incurred a charge related to revaluing our deferred tax assets based on the lower US tax rate. This tax charge will be adjusted over the next few quarters as additional financial information and regulatory guidance and interpretation becomes available. In terms of the expected impact of the new tax law on KLA-Tencor, our preliminary analysis indicate the changes in the tax law will be beneficial to the company and to our stockholders, as the annual ongoing US tax liability for the company will be meaningfully lower. Furthermore, the new territorial tax system will enable us additional flexibility to repatriate future foreign earnings and allow access to cash to productively invest in the business, pursue compelling strategic growth opportunities and return cash to stockholders without any additional US tax liability. Based on our initial modeling, we expect the overall worldwide tax planning rate of 20% provided last October, based on the expected mix of business in 2018 to decrease by approximately 500 basis points and allow access to all free cash flow generated, irrespective of geographical IP ownership or manufacturing location. As a result, going forward, the new recommended tax rate for modeling purposes is 15%. Finally, net income for the December quarter was 309 million and we ended the quarter with 157 million fully diluted shares outstanding. I'll turn now to the highlights from the balance sheet and our cash flow statement. Cash and investments ended the quarter at 2.76 billion, a decrease of approximately 298 million compared with the September quarter, primarily due to repayment and maturity of 250 million in public bonds and a net reduction of 40 million in bank loans. Cash from operations was 129 million in the quarter and free cash flow was 116 million. For the full year in 2017, free cash flow was 1.14 billion. Consistent with our proactive track record of returning cash to stockholders, we believe that unallocated free cash flow is valued only when it is productively deployed. Going forward, the new tax environment will afford the company additional flexibility to continue to optimize this fundamental aspect of the company's strategy. We will have more to say on this topic in the coming weeks. In December, we paid an aggregate of 92.6 million regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units and repurchased $40 million of common stock pursuant to our share repurchase program. The company has approximately 4.9 million shares remaining under our share repurchase authorization. In conclusion, KLA-Tencor's results in December reflect our market leadership and our industry leading business model. This coupled with ending total backlog of approximately 1.9 billion position the company for strong relative growth versus the wafer fab equipment market in calendar year '18. Current forecasts are for the WFE market to grow mid-single digits in 2018. Against this industry setting, we are modeling the company revenue to grow in the high single digits in the year, stronger than the broader market and with operating performance expected at the high end of the range of these revenue levels in our target model. So with that, to reiterate our guidance for the March quarter is, shipments in the range of 945 million to 1.025 billion; revenue between 970 million and 1.03 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.85 to $2.09 per share with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.84 to $2.08 per share. This concludes our remarks on the quarter. I will now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.