Robert Lewin
Analyst · Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question
Great. Thanks a lot, Craig. The operating backdrop has begun to improve and as Craig just ran through, our model continues to deliver consistent results. With that, let's shift the focus of the conversation to the future. Our model, growth trajectory, and culture are differentiated within our industry. I thought it would be beneficial to go through three of the foundational building blocks that have driven much of our differentiation and will importantly be a key driver of KKR's future earnings quality and growth. We have taken very deliberate steps to build a business that benefits from several different growth engines, providing both greater earnings stability and significant long-term earnings power. Number one, we've built a business that has meaningfully increased the durability and recurring nature of our revenues, and we expect that trend to continue. Page four of the earnings release highlights this point very well. On the left hand side of the page, you see that over just the past two and a half years, we have doubled our management fees, our most recurrent revenue stream from $1.4 billion in 2020 to $2.9 billion over the last 12 months, and fee-related earnings in turn have also increased meaningfully from $1.3 billion in 2020 to approximately $2.3 billion over the prior 12 months. Alongside this growth, the quality of these earnings has significantly improved as we've become much more diversified by strategy and by geography. In addition, the form of our capital base has also evolved, with our perpetual capital increasing from $22 billion at the end of 2020 to $200 billion today. Our perpetual capital now accounts for roughly 50% of our fee paying AUM relative to approximately 10% at the end of 2020. We will continue this focus of increasing both our recurring revenue and profitability, as well as diversifying the form of our fundraising and capital base. The second building block are the multiple identifiable growth avenues at across our business. We have discussed a number of these drivers over the last couple of earnings calls, but today I'm going to focus on just two areas that have been more notable in the quarter. Insurance and private wealth. Global Atlantic has continued to be a fantastic acquisition for us. Looking at the past few months, we've highlight two very important initiatives. In May GA announced a reinsurance agreement with MetLife funded by GA's balance sheet, our Ivy platform and co-investors. With this transaction, AUM will increase by $13 billion upon closing, and the transaction will be beneficial, both management fees as well as insurance operating earnings. And in June, KKR and GA together formed a strategic partnership with Japan Post Insurance. This partnership allows us to pursue additional growth opportunities through our collaboration with a key player in the Japanese insurance market. And as part of this, Japan Post committed meaningfully to Ivy II, which as Craig mentioned, held its final close in the quarter. Overall, GA is continue to demonstrate significant momentum with $144 billion of AUM as of Q2. This has doubled since we announced the acquisition in 2020, a further proof point of our acquisition and a demonstration of how the alignment we've created can drive real success. A specific area where GA has really helped accelerate the growth of one of our businesses is private credit. Today, we manage $78 billion in private credit with $45 billion of that in asset-based finance. We are a leader in the ABF space, encompassing both our high grade and higher yielding strategies. And with recent regional bank retrenchment, the already five plus trillion ABF addressable market has even more structural tailwinds for us, as those seeking capital look to KKR as a real solutions provider with scale. The multi-year relationship announced in the quarter with PayPal is just one recent example. And now turning to private wealth. We've touched on this topic a number of times given the market opportunity alongside the significant investments we have made in order to launch and distribute a number of new products. In Q2, we started fundraising for two new private wealth strategies focused on private equity and infrastructure. The launch of these products was a critical step in addressing the massive private wealth end market and introducing on a global scale products that traditionally have not been accessible to non-institutional clients. We're off to a really good start here. In total, including capital that has raised in Q2 and so far in Q3, we've raised $1.9 billion across these two strategies. While we are still in the very early days, these initial results are ahead of our expectations. We have also launched in just a handful of platforms so far, and we would expect that to increase over the coming quarters. In our credit business, we look forward to the launch of a new private BBC later this year. In addition to direct lending, the strategy incorporates a specific allocation to asset-based finance, which we think will be viewed as a real differentiator. So, at this point, we have a full suite of private wealth solutions strategically aligned with our four key investment verticals across the firm. Our focus here remains very much long-term oriented, ensuring that we are a real winner in the space over the next five to 10-plus years. Our conviction around success is high and is driven by a number of factors, including our brand, investment track record, our significantly expanded distribution and marketing teams, and our scale to be able to invest into the opportunity set. And importantly, each one of our core products across PE, infra, real estate and credit have aspects that are unique and a real testament to the innovation capabilities of our team. Now turning to building block number three. We continue to achieve substantial growth in our earnings power because of both an increase in our fee paying AUM and capital deployment. We currently have $10 billion of embedded gains that sit on our balance sheet. That's the fair value of our carry and investment portfolio relative to the underlying cost, that's up from $3.7 billion just a few years ago. This provides a real lens into our ability to create meaningful revenue outcomes in the future. And over the next few years, with continued investment performance and further capital deployment, that number is biased to increase, even as we expect to monetize more as the environment hopefully becomes more constructive. A reminder for how we think about earnings power. Distributable earnings is largely a cash metric. So, in times like these, when we sell less through the monetization environment, we are underearning that intrinsic earnings power and embedded gains are only one piece of that equation. Our expectation here is for continued scaling of our more recurring revenue businesses as well. Just looking at management fees alone, without raising another dollar, we currently have $38 billion of AUM with a weighted average management fee rate of almost a 100 basis points, that is not yet turned on. This capital once activated, would directly flow into management fees and be additive to earnings, but is not reflected today in our FRE or after tax DE. We also have $100 billion of dry powder, 96% of which is carry eligible. When we invest that capital, it creates the potential for more embedded gains and therefore revenue over time. These are the main reasons why we are so constructive around the potential for further significant and sustainable growth in our earnings per share over time. We have never been more confident around our model and our prospects, which is one of the reasons that you saw us buyback some stock in the quarter. Since the end of Q1, we have brought back or canceled approximately 6 million shares at an average price per share of less than $50 share. Repurchases have historically been and will continue to be an important driver of value creation for our shareholders. As a reminder, since we initiated our buyback program in 2015, we have bought back or canceled approximately 92 million shares at an average price per share of just over $27. This represents more than 10% of KKR shares outstanding today and almost 15% of our free float. And with our recent acquisition such as KJRM, our Japanese REIT Manager and Global Atlantic, we have completed almost $5 billion of purchase price M&A with limited share issuance. We remain as a management team, the largest owners of stock, and are highly aligned with shareholders in our focus on equity value creation. So, to summarize, our earnings growth will continue to be supported by more stable forms of income, including our diversified high-quality and growing management fee business underpinned by our $200 billion of perpetual capital. Number two, we have several differentiated growth avenues, including insurance and private wealth amongst many others. And finally, our embedded gains and more broadly our earnings power is expected to continue to increase. These compounding pieces are why we continue to feel more confident than ever in our 2026 targets of $4-plus of FRE and $7-plus of after tax De per share. With that, Scott, Craig and I are happy to take your questions.