Scott C. Nuttall
Analyst · Omega Advisors
Thanks, Bill. Given the volatility over the last few weeks, I am going to spend just a minute today on Q3, but spend most of my time with you today on how we're seeing the world. So regarding the quarter, the bottom line to me is 5 simple points. One, our businesses are performing and scaling well. Two, our investment performance has been strong across all major asset classes and if you dig into the numbers, recent vintage private equity deals are performing especially well. To give you a sense, investments made from 2009 through 2012 have a 27% IRR so far. Three, we're finding interesting investment opportunities globally. Most of our activity in Q3 was outside the United States. In private equity as an example, 70% of new deal activity in the quarter was in Europe and Asia. Four, we're creating exits, especially strategic exits, which are driving our cash carry, which is up over 125% from the first 9 months of 2014. And five, as a result of all this, our year-to-date total distributable earnings are up 75% and our year-to-date distribution per unit is up 68%. So we had a good quarter. Given the volatility you've seen in the market the last few weeks, let's talk about what the current environment means for our existing investments and businesses. We like investing in complex situations when other investors may be nervous. And we are hopeful this environment will lead to more of these opportunities. So if the world gets difficult, we will be ready to capitalize. Before we open it up to Q&A, we thought we would address 2 of your frequently asked questions directly. The first relates to Energy. We manage about $8.7 billion of capital in our Energy and Infrastructure business across funds, separate accounts and our balance sheet. Oil prices have dropped approximately 20% from their June highs, and equities within the energy complex have been under pressure. So let's talk about $80 oil and what this means for our energy business. While falling oil prices can adversely impact some of our existing investments, we feel that our firm's overall oil exposure is limited compared to the available opportunities. The capital needs within the Energy complex are material, and if short-term commodity price swings creates supply/demand imbalances, that is generally good for our business. But let's get more detailed. In terms of invested capital, I'm going to start with private equity. As of September 30, we had over $40 billion of fair value across our private equity funds. And when you look through the numbers, you'll see that only 3% of that $40 billion was in direct energy investments. Looking more closely at our 2006 NAXI funds, direct energy was also about 3% of those funds. So energy is a very modest percentage of our Q3 fair value in private equity. This position was purposeful. It has been our view that over the past 18 months, valuations in Energy PE were too high and that there was too much capital chasing investments. So we expect a drop in values to make the market more sober, significantly broadening our opportunities set going forward. So now let's turn to Real Assets. First, our infrastructure fund. Our infra business is not directly exposed to commodities by design and is currently invested across 5 sectors: Renewables, water and wastewater treatment, communications and infrastructure, district heating and cooling, and parking. All of these are largely unaffected by changes in commodity prices. Also, our investment in Colonial Pipeline is insulated from commodity price movements, given the nature of the underlying contracts. So we have no meaningful oil exposure in infrastructure. Where we do have direct exposure is through our Energy income and growth and Natural Resources funds. These products are purposely exposed to commodities. But let's look at the details. In aggregate, there's about $3 billion of committed capital in these funds. And only $1 billion of the $3 billion is invested. Energy income and growth is a young strategy with a lot of dry powder and KKR Natural Resources is largely exposed to natural gas. And what oil exposure we do have is about 50% hedged. So even in these strategies, we have 2/3 of our relevant capital or $2 billion in dry powder ready to be deployed and little net exposure to oil prices today. We also know a lot of you have questions about the recent volatility in the leverage credit markets and what higher high yield spreads mean for our firm. So let's address that. While the leveraged credit markets have rallied over the past week, high yield spreads are approximately 115 basis points wider in the U.S. and Europe, relative to their lows in June. This change is not expected to have a big impact on our business. We're finding capital for new deals remains available at attractive all-in rates. We still believe we could raise 10 plus billion of financing in this environment at an all-in cost of capital, around 6%. And we have aggressively refinanced our private equity portfolio company's debt over the last few years, so we don't feel that risk in the portfolio. Also, remember, spreads increase, that's overall a good thing for our credit business, which manages $26 billion of non-investment grade credit and has been growing quickly. So overall, we view the latest pullback in markets and energy as a net positive for us, given our long-term locked up capital and dry powder. Let me just spend a minute on how we're seeing the world more broadly. Overall, we continue to see a slow recovery in the U.S. and Europe. This recovery has been very bumpy. And if you think about the last few years, we have had the flash crash, the European contagion, China slowdown, and now an energy pullback and renewed concerns about Europe. We view the last few weeks as the latest bump in an already bumpy road back from the credit crisis and great recession, and are optimistic we can take advantage of the anxiety again by investing into the uncertainty. As investors, slow growth environments with periodic volatility and an overall improving economy has been a good environment in which to deploy capital and a good environment in which to monetize some of our mature investments. And with that, let's open the line to answer more of your questions.