John Griggs
Analyst · Raymond James., please proceed with your questions
Thanks, Mickey. It was truly historic year for Kodiak, and we look to continue to building on our positive momentum in '24. In my remarks, I'll review our fourth quarter and full year results and then I'll turn to our outlook for the year. Total revenues for the fourth quarter were approximately $226 million up about 26% when compared to last year. Revenues for the full year increased 20% to approximately $850 million in '23. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $114 million, up 4% from Q3 and up over 10% versus the same quarter of last year. Our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA excludes $2.5 million of non-cash stock comp expense and $4.3 million related to non-recurring items, such as transaction related fees. I'd be remiss to not point out that included in the quarters and years adjusted EBITDA specifically within SG&A was about $5 million and $7 million respectively, in reserved for bad debts associated with the challenged customer. We've talked about this before, record low gas prices and put them in a tough spot. And it's a clear reminder of why we have strategically positioned 95% plus of our assets and revenues in liquid rich associated gas basins. In line with our expectations, adjusted EBITDA for the full year increased nearly 10% to over $438 million in 2023. Looking at our segments, compression operations, revenues for the quarter were nearly $190 million, up about 11% when compared to the same quarter a year ago. Compression operations revenues for the full year '23 total approximately $736 million, an increase of 12% over '22. Revenue generating horsepower increased by over 48,000 sequentially, and 127,000 for the year. Consistent with prior periods revenue growth in this segment was a function of mid-single digit percentage growth in revenue generating horsepower alongside higher overall fleet pricing. In our other services segment, fourth quarter revenues were approximately $36 million, up substantially compared to approximately $9 million in last year's fourth quarter, but now nearly $8 million sequentially. This segments revenues and margins are positively impacted by the award and accelerated progress the two large projects in the second half of '23. Finishing the year well in excess of what we originally forecast. From an overall adjusted gross margin perspective, our operations team continues to focus on the smarter application of people processes and systems, in order to contain costs and offset inflationary pressures. We saw the benefits of that in Q4, as evidenced by compression operations costs declining sequentially by $1.6 million while revenues grew. The focus on cost and efficiency allowed our compressions operation segment to generate a 66% plus margin, a nice bump in the prior quarter. From the dollar basis for the quarter, our adjusted gross margin in the other services segment was approximately $8.5 million up substantially sequentially and over the fourth quarter of last year. On a percentage basis, the quarter came in at 23%. As we've highlighted previously, our fourth quarter reflects what we believe to be an abnormally strong, realizing above average margins as we completed in advance on a few meaningful projects and better than expected markets. The other services segment is lumpy but valuable segment. Station construction projects are synergistic with our compression business and require no capital. Every dollar of incremental cash flow adds to both our overall return on capital employed and discretionary cash flow, which in turn allows us to pay more dividends and invest in high return growth capital projects. Over the medium term, we continue to expect to realize gross margins for this segment between 15% to 20%. In terms of CapEx, for the quarter, our maintenance CapEx was about $9 million. For the full year maintenance CapEx was $37 million, which was approximately $11 million less than what we had spent in '22. As a reminder, our maintenance is a function of the hours and age of our equipment, and will vary by year depending upon when units were added to the fleet. Growth CapEx was $60 million for the quarter and $15 million of that was non new unit CapEx. We mentioned in Q3 that we had some opportunistic real estate purchases, and those closed in Q4. Going forward we expect more normalized levels of non-unit growth CapEx. Overall growth CapEx for '23 totaled approximately $184 million. As we previously mentioned, CapEx was expected to be back and loaded and you saw that in the fourth quarter. Moving to the balance sheet. As of year-end, we had debt of $1.8 billion consisting entirely of borrowings on our ABL facility. Our credit agreement, leverage ratio was just shy of four times and we exited the year with approximately $355 million of availability on the facility. As most of you know, last month, we issued $750 million of 7.25% senior unsecured notes due 2029. As a debut issuer, we were very pleased with both the credit ratings we achieved and the pricing. It's clear that ratings agencies and debt investors wholly subscribed to the current strength and future outlook of the U.S. compression market, as well as the durability and quality of Kodiak's cash flows. We issued a notice in advance of the CSI closed in order to capitalize on the strength in the credit markets and derisk the transaction. And we use the proceeds to pay down our ABL and pay debt fees. At the time the CSI deal closes will redraw on our ABL to pay off CSI’s debt as well as transaction expenses. When it's all said and done, we'll wind up with roughly $60 million plus of incremental liquidity on the ABL by virtue of issuing more notes that we needed to close the transaction. With our IPO, the recent financing related activities and the benefits of that are creative and leverage neutral CSI transaction, we remain on track to return to achieve our long term leverage target of 3.5 times or less by year end 2025. Moving to our 2024 outlook. For the year on a standalone basis, we estimate total Kodiak revenue will range between $855 million and $905 million. We estimate that adjusted EBITDA will range between $460 million and $490 million. I’ll now break that down by segment. In our core compression operations segment, we're forecasting full year revenue of $795 million to $825 million and segment adjusted gross margins between 64% and 66%. Given constructive market dynamics, attributes of our contracts, and our solid execution, we're confident in our segment outlook and a laser focus on growing long term high quality cash flows. In our other services segment, we're forecasting full year revenue of $60 million to $80 million and segment adjusted gross margins between 15% and 20%. We view '23 results for this segment as being an outlier to the high side. Our '24 guidance reflects more normalized revenue for margin levels. Turning to CapEx. Due to timing and customer demand, our '24 capital spending program is front half loaded. With approximately 60% of spending happening in the first six months of the year. We expect maintenance CapEx to come in between $40 million to $50 million for the year. On the growth side, we're forecasting net CapEx of between $165 million and $185 million for the year. Included in our forecast is approximately $12.5 million in non-new unit related CapEx. At the midpoint of that guidance, will grow our fleet horsepower in the low to mid-single digit percentage range. For modeling purposes, and to give you something to look forward to, CSI provided its '24 outlook in its fourth quarter earnings release on March 1. Shortly after transaction closed, we plan to issue updated guidance for the combined companies as well as a refined view on transaction synergies in any modifications to our capital allocation framework. To wrap things up, as Mickey noted, earlier this year, our Board declared our second quarterly dividend payment of $0.38 per share, which was paid last month. This equates to an annualized dividend of $1.52 per share, yielding about 5.5% to 6% at recent prices. Dividends are a key aspect of our overall capital allocation framework, which I'll remind you encompasses measured growth alongside attractive return of and return on capital while living within cash flow and deleveraging. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.