Earnings Labs

KeyCorp (KEY)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 22, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to KeyCorp’s fourth quarter 2007 earnings results conference call. This call is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the call over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of KeyCorp, Mrs. Henry Myer. Mr. Myer please go ahead sir.

Henry L. Myer III

Management

Thank you Operator. Good morning and welcome to KeyCorp’s fourth quarter earnings conference call. We appreciate you talking time to be part of our discussion today. Joining me for today’s presentation is our CFO, Jeff Weeden. Also joining me for the Q&A portion of our call are our business leaders Tom and Beth, and our chief risk officer Chuck Hyle. Slide Two is our forward-looking disclosure statement; it covers both our presentation and the Q&A portion that will follow. Before I discuss the strategic actions shown on Slide Three, I think it’s important to point out that Key has been positioning itself for a potential downturn in the credit markets. Specific actions include curtailment of our Florida condominium exposure, the sale of our sub-prime home mortgage lending business more than a year ago and our recent decision to access dealer originated home improvement lending and cease conducting business with non-relationship home builders outside of our footprint. Also and importantly we have no meaningful TLO, CDO, asset backed commercial paper or SIV exposure. Slide Three highlights strategic actions that were previously announced on December 20th to bolster Keys’ loan loss reserve and manage our expense structure as we entered 2008. These actions include increasing our loan loss reserves with a provision that exceeded net charge-offs by $244 million and adding $25 million to the provisions for unfunded commitments. The additional loan loss provisions reflected deteriorating market conditions in the residential property segment of Keys commercial real estate construction portfolio. We also transferred approximately $1.1 billion of home builder related loans and $800 million of condominium exposure to our special asset management group. As we said in our earnings release today the majority of these credits are currently performing and expected to continue to perform. We announced our decision to exit several…

Henry L. Myer III

Management

Thank you Henry. I’ll begin with financial summary shown on Slide Five. My comments today will be with respect to Keys results from continuing operations from the fourth quarter of 2007. In some cases I’ll comment on comparisons to both the fourth quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007. Our earnings per share from the fourth quarter of 2007 were impacted by the actions we announced on December 20th to add to our reserve per loan losses and exit certain business activities as well as the market related charges we incurred in our health for sale portfolio. In addition the Visa accruals sweeping through the banking industry during the fourth adversely impacted our results. For the fourth quarter 2007 we are in $0.06 per share from continuing operations, compared to $0.76 per share from the same period one year ago and $0.57 in the third quarter of 2007. I’ll comment further on our fourth quarter results on our 2008 outlook as we review the remaining slides in our presentation. Turning to Slide Six. The companies tax {inaudible} net interest income for the fourth quarter 2007 increased $38 million dollars from the third quarter and $6 million from the same period one year ago. For the fourth quarter 2007 our net interest margin increased 8 basis points to 3.48% from the third quarter level and was down 18 basis points from the same period one year ago. Our margin benefited in the fourth quarter 2007 from the lease accounting adjustment which increased taxable equipment net interest income by $18 million and added approximately 9 basis points to the net interest margin. The company experienced a similar adjustment in the fourth quarter of 2006. Excluding the fourth quarter of 2007 impact from the lease accounting adjustment our margin would have…

Operator

Operator

Our question and answer session will be conducted electronically. (Operator Instructions) Our first question of the morning will go to Terry McEnvoy at Oppenheimer & Company. Please go ahead. Terry McEnvoy – Oppenheimer & Company : Could you just be a little more specific on the expenses recorded in Q4 associated with the expense review that’s going on? Then, looking on to 2008 within your guidance this morning does that include additional, call it one time expenses, as part of this review? Or, do you think they’ll be above and beyond your guidance today?

Henry L. Myer III

Management

Well Terry, in the fourth quarter as far as the separation charges there were $24 million worth of severance. There were also some professional fees associated with the outplacement and other activities. That was primary in there. We also recorded a $5 million charges associated with the writing off of goodwill with the payroll online business and that’s in the other expense. As you recall, I think it’s identified clearly in the press release, the $64 million for Visa, the provision for unfunded commitments which for the year was around $28 million. Those particular items we would not anticipate at those levels obviously, in 2008. In the guidance we provided of low single digits excludes a number of those charges related to Visa and unfunded commitments. I think as you look at the separation charges there was also a reduction of incentive compensation accruals both in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Those would probably be offset increases in 2008 against the separation charges we incurred in 2007. Terry McEnvoy – Oppenheimer & Company : Could you talk about deposit relationships that KeyCorp has with some of your home builder clients? Particularly those that are out of footprint and those loans that were transfer to the special asset management group and also the quality of those deposits as well.

Thomas W. Bunn

Analyst

One of the reasons we are exiting a number of those relationships is they weren’t really relationships they were more really opportunities in those regions, non-franchise and because they weren’t in our franchise footprint we did not have significant deposit relationships so you will not see a significant impact on our deposit relationships because of those being moved to the exit portfolios.

Operator

Operator

Our next question goes to Tony Davis at Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead. Anthony Davis – Stifel Niclaus : Just a few more details here. Tom, keep going here, I wonder what you could tell me about what you’re seeing right now as loan syndication, as CMBS syndication volumes and kind of what your expectations are for the rest of the year?

Thomas W. Bunn

Analyst

Regarding syndication we were pleased with the volume we had in the fourth quarter coming out of the institutional side of the bank both with institutional real estate as well as institutional corporate. Clearly, some of that is driven by M&A related activities which has slowed. Now, that said we did see some M&A activity in the fourth quarter slide to the first quarter which will close, which will provide financing opportunities. But, quite honestly, our outlook for the capital market side of the business is really going to be driven by how open those capital markets are. As Jeff said, we do not anticipate significant growth year-over-year in those businesses until we have a better view of those markets. Anthony Davis – Stifel Niclaus : The question was CMBS?

Thomas W. Bunn

Analyst

The CMBS pipeline has fallen off dramatically. The fourth quarter was estimated about 20% of normalized volume. We expect no better than 40 to 50% normalize volume this year. As Jeff mentioned, our interim financing has shown a significant slowing and again, we don’t see that growth improving until we get some calm in the markets and a better indication of rates to take outside. Anthony Davis – Stifel Niclaus : What are you seeing Tom, on mortgage servicing pricing and what’s the likelihood you’ll be adding some this year?

Thomas W. Bunn

Analyst

Interestingly enough we continue to see strong competition in the mortgage servicing pricing. We will continue to look to add there but we will not be stupid about paying for it. Anthony Davis – Stifel Niclaus : Finally Beth, a question for you; I just wondered how many of the branches you’re looking to upgrade this year? And, what we can expect there in terms of incremental expense impact?

Beth E. Mooney

Analyst

We currently have about 65 branches in flight for our branch modernization and updating and then we will be looking to do another 100 to 150 this year in our modernization program and we have accounted for that in our expectations for our 2008 non-interest expense. But, given most of that is capital it will not have a significant impact.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to John Boland at Maple Capital Management. Please go ahead. John Boland – Maple Capital Management: I’m just trying to get a little more clarity on the reserve side and your methodology. The consensus is the next couple of quarters are certainly going to be a lot worse than what we’ve seen and you’re allowances seem to be going up at a much slower pace than your non-performing assets or your charge offs. Just looking for any kind of clarification.

Charles S. Hyle

Analyst

I think our main focus clearly has been on the commercial real estate side. We took a very detailed look in December at our commercial real estate business. As we’ve indicated both looking at exit names as well as parts of the residential construction portfolio that has underperformed the last six months. We try to take quite a conservative few of that portfolio looking out into the future and that’s where the special reserves come from and while the majority of our exit names are still performing and we do expect them to continue to perform, it’s clearly weakness in specific parts particularly California and Florida. Our perspective on that was to increase our reserves to look through the next 12 months to be as adequately reserved for that part of the portfolio as we possibly could. The rest of the portfolio has continued to perform well. Our commercial and institutional businesses have continued to perform well and in line with expectations. Our consumer portfolios we started to see some modest migration starting four months ago. Through the fourth quarter we have seen some continued migration but, it has been relatively modest and we continue to view that part of the portfolio as well as our middle market portfolio to essentially perform in line with the economy. That’s our perspective. John Boland – Maple Capital Management: Can you provide any granularity as far as geographic trends you might be seeing? You just mentioned California but within the core markets are you seeing any particular or do you have any breakdowns as to who’s really getting harder than others?

Charles S. Hyle

Analyst

Are you speaking about real estate or broadly? John Boland – Maple Capital Management: Primarily real estate.

Charles S. Hyle

Analyst

Primarily California and Florida are the two weakest areas. Most of the rest of the geographies have performed relatively well. We’re seeing a little weakness in Nevada but, we’re not particularly exposed there. We’ve seen some weakness in Michigan but we are very underexposed in Michigan in real estate. The Pacific Northwest continues to perform well. Most of the northeast does. So, it’s really most of our focus on the negative side is just certain parts of California and certain parts of Florida. John Boland – Maple Capital Management: Which are really non-core markets, correct?

Charles S. Hyle

Analyst

Correct. John Boland – Maple Capital Management: Just one last bit of information if you could; would you say you’re being very proactive in the modeling? It almost sounds like you’re letting the economy drive the reserves and I’m just wondering if you could shed any light on that.

Charles S. Hyle

Analyst

Well, as I said I think we will perform in line with the economy but, as we look at the economy and our view of the economy changes it has an impact on the model. Our models are very sensitized to economic activity and we are certainly seeing some migration to a weakening economic environment and those do show up in the models we use.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We’ll go next to David Kringle at Fells Point Research. Please go ahead sir. [David Kringle – Fells Point Research]: Jeff, your guidance on the margin is that take into account the FED cut today?

Henry L. Myer III

Management

Well, it was based on the Blue Chip forecast. Obviously, I haven’t had an opportunity to go back and remodel the margin for the most recent activity that happened today. But, directionally we were modeling for decreasing rates over the next 12 months. So, the guidance has a degree of decline in general interest rates over the next 12 months. [David Kringle – Fells Point Research]: But, did it have the magnitude of the move today?

Henry L. Myer III

Management

I don’t know if anybody did David, to be quite honest. If you were to look at People’s analysis – the way we’re positioned with the decrease in rates depend on how low the FEDs end up ultimately going obviously. Looking at competitive factors that are out there in the market place how fast will competitors respond also to this change in the overall rate environment.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Myer we have no other questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back to you for any further comments.

Henry L. Myer III

Management

Again, we thank all of you for taking the time from your schedule to participate in our call today. If you have any follow up questions on the items we discussed please don’t hesitate to call Vern Patterson in our investor relations department. I’m sure all of you have Vern’s number but I’ve got it too, it’s 216-689-0520. That concludes our remarks and we wish everyone to have a good day.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude the call. We do appreciate your participation. At this time you may disconnect. Thank you.