David Grzebinski
Analyst · Stephens
Thank you, Bill. The last 15 months have been challenging with weak markets, poor operating conditions and declining financial performance. As economies reopen in the second quarter, we experienced a welcome increase in overall demand and greatly improved market conditions. With the U.S. and international economies continuing to reopen and demand for refined products and oilfield equipment and services increasing, we see this positive momentum continuing into the second half of the year. As a result, we expect to see improvement in revenues and earnings for both of Kirby segments. While we are very encouraged about the recovery, we are, however, cautiously watching the rising number of COVID-19 cases in parts of the U.S. and around the world just now. There is a risk that these spikes, which are already resulting in new lockdowns in some locations, could adversely impact the recovery, refinery utilization and refined products demand. Although we expect this could slow the pace of the recovery, we do believe that momentum will continue to build. Additionally, as many of you know, labor constraints across the industrial supply chain are creating delays in manufacturing lead times and other supply chains. It is possible that we could see some anticipated product sales or deliveries of our manufactured equipment delayed in the second half of the year. In the inland market, our outlook remains positive. As of today, our barge utilization is in the mid-80% range, driven by strong activity levels in the refining and petrochemical complex. Barring a significant step change in COVID, we expect barge activity should continue to increase during the last 2 quarters of this year as a result of improving demand, including increased refinery activity, higher refined products consumption and new petrochemical plants coming online. With minimal construction of new barges and barge retirements still occurring, we believe our barge utilization will increase into the high 80% to 90% range as the year progresses. This should support further improvement in spot market pricing during the second half of the year. Overall, in the third quarter, we expect revenues will sequentially improve with increasing demand and spot market pricing. Although we have some modest labor inflation starting in the third quarter, we expect operating margins to increase. As a result, we expect inland operating margins will be in the low double digits, 10-ish, if you will, during the third quarter. We expect further improvement in revenue and margins for the fourth quarter but results could be tempered by the normal seasonal weather disruptions. In coastal, we expect the market will recover slower with some improvement in barge demand during the remainder of the year. In recent weeks, spot activity has modestly improved with higher economic activity and increased demand for refined products. As a result, our barge utilization has increased slightly, particularly on the West Coast where overall demand levels have been slower to recover from the pandemic. Overall, we expect coastal barge utilization will be in the mid-70% range in the coming months, which should yield third and fourth quarter revenues slightly higher than the second quarter. We expect coastal operating margins will improve in the second half of the year, but still remain below breakeven in the negative low to mid-single-digit range. Looking at distribution and services, we expect that economic growth, improvements in the oilfield and summer seasonality will result in sequential revenue growth with improved operating margins. In commercial and industrial, we anticipate continued improvement in on-highway with further recovery in bus repair activity and increased parts revenue from our new online sales platform. We also expect increased Thermo King product sales and service during the peak summer demand season. In power generation, we expect increased backup power equipment sales and installations. And in our rental fleet, we should see some seasonal increases in utilization during the hurricane season. In marine repair, we expect a sequential reduction in revenues, primarily due to the harvest season in the dry cargo markets. In oil and gas, we believe current oil prices will contribute to continued increases in the rig count with incremental well completions activity as 2021 progresses. As a result, we expect to see higher demand for new engines and transmissions, parts and services in the Distribution segment for the remainder of 2021. In manufacturing, a focus on sustainability and efforts of oilfield companies to reduce their carbon footprints continues to generate increased inquiries and new orders for Kirby's portfolio of environmentally friendly equipment, including electric and dual fuel pressure pumping units and highly efficient natural gas power generation equipment for eFrac. We also are experiencing increased orders to remanufacture existing pressure pumping equipment. As a result, we anticipate increased deliveries of manufactured and remanufactured products in the back half of 2021. However, as mentioned previously, supply chain delays could result in some equipment delivery shifting between quarters and potentially into 2022. Overall, for the full year, our expectations have not materially changed for D&S. We anticipate significant year-on-year revenue growth of 15% to 25% with commercial and industrial representing approximately 65% of revenues and oil and gas representing the balance of 35%. We expect D&S operating margins will be in the low to mid-single digits for the full year with the third quarter being the highest. In the fourth quarter, normal seasonality will likely result in some sequential reduction in operating margins. Before we wrap up, I want to briefly comment on 2 other matters. First, today, we announced that Bill Harvey will be retiring as Kirby's CFO early next year. Bill has been an integral part of the Kirby team for the last 4 years and has helped to guide us through several large inland marine acquisitions and the integration of Stewart & Stevenson. Bill's contributions to Kirby's success and our financial strength have been significant, and he will certainly be missed. Additionally, earlier this week, released - we released our new 2021 Sustainability Report. This report represents another milestone in our ESG journey with new envisions disclosures for the full company as well as enhanced disclosures on safety, employee training and governance. You can access our new report in the Sustainability section on our website. Now to wrap things up, although there is some uncertainty around COVID-19 and its impact on the recovery, we remain very optimistic about Kirby's outlook. The second quarter was an important turning point for the company from a financial perspective with increased earnings in both segments. Most importantly, for the first time in over a year, we experienced a positive inland market that benefited from rising demand, favorable operating conditions and a major disruption. While the Colonial pipeline outage provided a temporary boost to the business, it highlighted that the inland market is well along on its path to recovery and how rapidly barge utilization can tighten and how quickly spot prices can move. The world economy is still in disarray. With much of Europe still essentially shut down and India, Mexico and South America not fully open. As the world economy fully recovers from the pandemic and demand for liquid normalizes around the world, we are confident our inland businesses will regain pre-pandemic utilization levels in the 90% range, bringing with it improved pricing, earnings and returns. In coastal, although market conditions remain challenging, continued retirements of industry capacity and a lack of any new construction will keep capacity in check and allow for a solid rebound once the U.S. economy fully recovers. And finally, in distribution and services, we have come a long way in the last year, with steady improvements in financial performance. Our distribution businesses have not yet fully recovered, and there is room for further improvement as we go forward. With more favorable oilfield fundamentals and increased demand for lower carbon solutions, our new and highly efficient, environmentally friendly pressure pumping and power generation equipment is capturing the attention of our customers and translating into new orders that will provide additional growth in the second half of the year and into 2022. Overall, we have made substantial progress during the last year in very difficult markets. We realigned our cost structure, expanded our product offering in D&S and improved our financial flexibility. Our marine markets have stabilized and are beginning to improve. All of this has set the stage for improved earnings and returns and will allow us to take advantage of future growth opportunities. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take questions.