David Grzebinski
Analyst · Evercore. You may proceed with your question
Thank you, Bill. In the last few weeks, some encouraging macro trends have begun to emerge. Refinery and chemical plant utilization is slowly moving higher, demand for refined products is increasing, frac activity is improving and trucking fleet miles are rebounding modestly. As a result, we have recently started to see some slight improvement in our activity levels. While this is positive, the resurgence in positive virus cases, new government restrictions and continued high unemployment creates uncertainty as to the timing of a material economic recovery. Given these factors, we intend to remain focused -- very focused on cost control, capital discipline and cash generation until we see a significant improvement in activity. In the inland market, the sharp decline in demand in barge utilization that was experienced throughout May and June has stabilized in recent weeks as refinery and chemical plant utilization levels have modestly improved. These improvements have resulted in some slight increases in customer requirements, leading us to believe the inland market has reached bottom. However, with continued uncertainty surrounding the virus, a material recovery for the inland market is not expected until general economic activity rebounds. With inland barge utilization starting the quarter in the mid-70% range, we expect that our average third quarter utilization will be sequentially lower and spot market pricing could remain under pressure until a more meaningful improvement in demand is realized. In the meantime, we will continue to reduce costs across the business as necessary, including managing our horsepower requirements to align with demand as well as strict management of operating costs, G&A expenses and capital expenditures. Overall, with average barge utilization and demand expected to be at lower levels for the third quarter, we anticipate inland revenues and operating income will decline compared to the second quarter. Despite these near-term headwinds and given that this downturn is demand-driven versus supply-driven, we are confident that the inland business can get back on a path to normalized margins in the low to mid-20% range in a healthy and fully recovered market. In the coastal market, approximately 85% of the revenues are under long-term contracts, which have minimal renewal exposure prior to the end of 2020. Demand in the spot market is expected to remain at low levels for the near term. In the third quarter, we will retire one additional large capacity vessel. However, reduced shipyard maintenance will help to improve the quarter's overall results. As a result, we expect third quarter coastal revenues and operating income will modestly improve sequentially. In distribution and services, we anticipate the activity in the oil and gas market will remain extremely challenged for the duration of 2020. The U.S. rig count, which has declined from nearly 800 rigs in the first quarter to approximately 250 rigs today, is expected to only slightly improve for the duration of the year. Additionally, although there are reports of incremental fracturing activity expected in the second half, the significant amount of spare pressure pumping capacity that exists across the industry will likely limit any material recovery in new construction and maintenance activities for the foreseeable future. As a result, although we're seeing a slight pickup in activity now, we do not expect a significant rebound in our oil and gas distribution and manufacturing businesses for the remainder of the year. In commercial and industrial, although our core businesses continue to experience reduced activity levels as a result of COVID-19, there have been some positive indicators in on-highway and power generation sectors in recent weeks. Fleet mileage in the nation's trucking industry have modestly rebounded from their lows in the second quarter and power generation projects, which were previously deferred, are being rescheduled for the coming months. While we hope these trends continue, the ongoing spike in virus cases and the possibility of new lockdowns and restrictions could delay the recovery. On a more positive note, we anticipate increased seasonal utilization in the power generation rental fleet and higher activity in the Thermo-King refrigeration businesses during the remaining summer months. The marine repair business is expected to be stable in the third quarter but will likely decline in the fourth quarter due to normal seasonal factors, including the dry cargo harvest season. We are actively managing the distribution and services cost structure, and we'll continue to make adjustments to mitigate the impact of reduced activity as necessary. Although our recent efforts were not fully reflected in the second quarter's results, we expect to realize the benefit of these cost reductions in the third quarter. As a result, we expect the distribution and services operating margins will sequentially improve in the third quarter but still remain below breakeven. For the full year, we expect segment margins at a loss. However, it's important to remember that D&S business requires very little capital and consequently should contribute cash flow to the company for the year. In conclusion, the second quarter was very challenging. Our activity levels dropped significantly and we had to make some very difficult but necessary decisions to reduce costs. Although it appears activity has bottomed and we are entering the initial phases and stages of the recovery, significant uncertainty remains. In the third quarter, we expect overall earnings will be sequentially lower with inland down, coastal up slightly and losses in distribution and services meaningfully less. We are confident that Kirby is in position to deliver decent full year results despite the challenging backdrop. From a liquidity perspective, our strong free cash flow generation in the second quarter enabled us to reduce debt by $60 million and ensure ample liquidity for these uncertain times. We expect this trend to continue in the third and fourth quarters with us generating strong free cash flow of $250 million to $350 million for the full year. As previously disclosed, we plan to use this cash to further enhance liquidity and reduce our debt for the foreseeable future. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take questions.