David Grzebinski
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
Sure, sure. Well, let me start with kind of the supply and demand. I think what you’ve seen over the last couple of years is, as the industry has added some capacity in terms of new ATBs and new barges and tugs. And in fact there is probably 14 left to be delivered into the market. A lot of that was built, I’m sorry, they’re telling me 11, not 14. So, a lot of that was built or has been built to handle some of the crude movements particularly some of the bigger units. And as you know, a lot of the terminals and infrastructure that was going to help getting crude to the water, those permits were not granted. So it kind of put a little more capacity in the market than whatever was have been there. Now that said there are 35 barges in our space that are older than 30 years old. And those need to come out. So, what’s happening now as the industry is retiring those older barges, we are, we retired three large barges last year we’ve got two we know of this year and maybe a third. And I think the industry is looking at shipyards, in shipyard activity they’ve got on their older units and saying, hi, look, probably doesn’t make sense to go through that shipyard. And if you add, Bell’s [ph] water treatment systems that they need to add to these units, it becomes even harder to justify taking these older units through. So long story short, I think the new equipment coming in is declining the amount of equipment that needs to come out is significant. And that equipment is coming out. And then the force, I think you could see some incremental crude demand that could hit the market if under the new administration we get permits for some of this infrastructure and terminals along the coasts that have been denied. So, how long does it take to come to balance, it could be a year, it could be two years, but I think it may come a little quicker if the crude gets going. One of the things it could happen is, we’ve seen the new finds in the Permian there is a significant amount of oil that’s going to come to market in the next two or three years. I’m hearing estimates of perhaps up to 1 million barrels a day by 2020. And that will make its way to the watery, their Corpus Christy or Houston. And where that oil goes will depend on a lot of different things but generally speaking when liquids make it to the water, it’s good for our industry. So, that could be a bright spot irrespective of changes in permitting.