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Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 17, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Kodiak's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the call over to Lauren Harper, Kodiak's Chief of Staff. Please go ahead.

Lauren Harper

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Kodiak's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. On the call today are Don Burnette, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Kodiak; and Surajit Datta, Chief Financial Officer of Kodiak. Our press release and an earnings presentation were issued earlier today and are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. This call is being broadcast live via a webcast, and a replay will be available on our website after the call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, Kodiak will be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws about financial performance and future events, including our guidance for fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, as well as our long-term goals. Such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any statement made during this call that is not a statement of historical facts should be deemed to be a forward-looking statement. All forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our guidance for fiscal fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, our estimated total addressable market, our operational and product road map, our relationships with partners and suppliers, our ability to produce and deploy the Kodiak driver at scale, including the timing of launching driverless trucks for long-haul highway operations, our expansion plans and opportunities and our expectations regarding future business and financial performance, including future cash flows and our path to profitability, are based upon management's current estimates and various assumptions. These statements involve material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to materially differ from those anticipated or implied by these forward-looking statements. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. For a list and description of the risks and uncertainties associated with our business, please see our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any obligation, except as required by law, to update or revise any financial or operational projections or other forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. Any forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of the date of this call. Further, in addition to discussing results that are calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, we may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For more detailed information on our non-GAAP financial disclosures, including reconciliations to most comparable GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website. Our discussion today also includes references to forward-looking free cash flow. Such forward-looking financial measure is provided on a non-GAAP basis without a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measure due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation. I will now turn the call over to Don. Please go ahead.

Don Burnette

Analyst

Thanks, Lauren, and welcome to our first earnings call as a public company. Today, we're excited to share our third quarter results. But first, I'd like to introduce you to Kodiak and talk about our industry-leading technology, our strategy and why we believe we are positioned to capture the tremendous opportunity in the global trucking market. Kodiak delivers AI-powered driving technology that tackles some of the world's toughest driving jobs across vehicles and environments. We are a leading provider of autonomous trucking technology with 10 driverless trucks in customer operation with no human in the cab. These 10 trucks are the first to be delivered as we fulfill the world's largest known driverless trucking contract, a binding order to deploy our technology in 100 customer-owned trucks. Our differentiated technology allows us to seamlessly operate across a variety of environments, giving us the flexibility we need to focus on 3 large verticals: long-haul trucking, industrial trucking and defense. Across these verticals, we work with industry-leading customers such as J.B. Hunt, Werner, C.R. England, Martin Brower, Atlas Energy Solutions and the U.S. Army. Kodiak's core business is based on the Driver-as-a-Service or DaaS model, which is designed to replicate how customers pay their drivers today, either by the mile or by the vehicle. Our customers own and operate their own driverless trucks and pay us a recurring fee to utilize the Kodiak driver in their fleets. This DaaS model allows us to generate recurring revenue while keeping our balance sheet relatively asset-light. We initially launched this model with Atlas Energy Solutions, a leading logistics provider in the Permian Basin that is actively working to automate its supply chain. We intend to grow DaaS revenue, both as Atlas grows its fleet of Kodiak-powered trucks and as we expand driverless operations with new customers.…

Surajit Datta

Analyst

Thank you, Don, and good afternoon, everyone. I am pleased to share Kodiak's financial results for the third quarter of 2025, our first as a public company. This quarter marks an important milestone for Kodiak as we continue to successfully execute on our mission to accelerate adoption and commercialization of autonomous technology in a safe and reliable way. From a financial perspective, we are committed to delivering consistent value and building on the strong foundation already in place. We see potential for significant long-term growth, scale and operating leverage. We delivered strong performance, demonstrating our ability to scale and grow the business. We also continue to focus on deploying capital efficiently, most notably by partnering with leaders in the AV and trucking ecosystems. This allows us to focus on our core competency of developing advanced AI-powered autonomy software. Revenue for the third quarter was $0.8 million. This represents a 53% growth over the prior quarter, primarily driven by increase in Driver-as-a-Service revenue generated by our 100% quarter-over-quarter growth in customer-owned and operated driverless trucks. Let me take a moment to further explain our DaaS revenue model. Under this model, we charge our customers a single composite license fee to use The Kodiak Driver AV hardware and AI-powered autonomy software. We charge this fee on either a per vehicle or a per mile basis. This flexible pricing model is designed to align with our customers' diverse operational models. The DaaS model allows us to build predictable recurring revenue under multiyear contracts. We have already implemented the DaaS model with Atlas. In our long-haul operations, our customers currently pay us to deliver freight on Kodiak-owned autonomous trucks. We plan to transition our long-haul customers to the DaaS model once we commence our long-haul driverless operations. By integrating the Kodiak driver into customer-owned…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Ward of Citigroup.

Michael Ward

Analyst

Don, I wonder if you could talk a bit more about the ZF partnership that seems intriguing. How exactly is that going to work? Is it a supply relationship, development relationship? How is that going to work?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. The ZF relationship is primarily a supplier relationship. ZF, as you know, is one of the leading suppliers of steering columns and automotive components in general to the commercial trucking market. We have a long-standing relationship with them and use their components in our driverless trucks today. And this announcement further solidifies the partnership between Kodiak and ZF as we intend to scale our solution going into 2026.

Michael Ward

Analyst

That's a great. It's a great company. Surajit, as you look at the fourth quarter, it seems like your annualized run rate at year-end is going to be somewhere in that $5 million range just from the Atlas relationship. Is that about right?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

We expect meaningful growth in revenue. So Q4, as we have guided, we will be into...

Michael Ward

Analyst

As you exit -- as you exit, is that what we're talking about in that $5 million range for the annualized run rate?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

Yes. I think that could be close to that number.

Michael Ward

Analyst

Okay. And then from what I can tell, your cash burn was about $35 million, you had some unusual there in 3Q. So about $35 million a quarter, that's about right?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

In Q3, we had some high single-digit millions of onetime costs and public company-related costs. So we have guided for Q4 for free cash flow to be negative $36 million to negative $38 million.

Michael Ward

Analyst

Perfect. Okay. And just one last one, if I could, is I think you're on track to get to that 100-unit agreement with Atlas by the end of '26. That's your current target?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

Yes, that's our target.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andres Sheppard of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Andres Sheppard-Slinger

Analyst

Congrats on all the great progress and congrats on the first public quarter. Certainly, incredible achievement. Don, I wanted to maybe touch on the long-haul operations that you're targeting to launch in the second half of next year. Can you maybe help us understand what is needed between now and then between that, I guess, 78% and 100%. Anything that you can point that we should be focusing on? And how confident are you in that target?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Thanks, Andres. Yes, we're excited to finally come out with some tracking metrics around our progress toward long haul. We've been talking about this for the last several quarters, and we wanted to be able to provide the market with some visibility and transparency into our development process. The arm is effectively a measure of the material completeness of our safety case. And as you know, we don't launch a driverless product until our safety case is complete. Most of the work from here forward involves a lot of validation and testing of the system that includes simulation, that includes structured testing and other forms of testing validation as we build up to that launch. And so we'll be providing more detail along the way. For now, this is our first data point as we progress, but you should expect to see quarter-over-quarter improvement as we move toward our expected driverless launch in the second half of 2026, and we feel reasonably confident that, that is an accurate time line.

Andres Sheppard-Slinger

Analyst

Wonderful. That's super helpful. I appreciate all that color. And maybe just as one follow-up. A question on liquidity. So with roughly $150 million in cash and equivalents now, how are you thinking about kind of capital needs going forward? I realize you're not guiding cash burn going forward, but how should we think about that liquidity and any potential additional capital needs?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

Thanks for the question. This is Surajit here. I'll jump in here. As you see as a part of the de-SPAC transaction, which you just concluded, we had the largest capital raise in the history of the company, demonstrating our ability to raise across the capital structure and across several investors. And we feel excited about our momentum and the tremendous progress we are making in deploying our technology and scaling the business. So as we scale this business over both industrial and long haul, we should be able to also drive significant operating leverage and reduce our [ BOM ] cost. So we feel confident that as we execute on this strategy, we will be opportunistically seeking additional financings to strengthen our liquidity over the next 12 months, support the next phase of growth and execute against our road map. So we feel confident we're raising that additional capital for the next few quarters.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Mcilree of Chardan Capital Markets.

James McIlree

Analyst

When you think about the second half entry into the long-haul market relative to the ARM measure, do you need to be at 100% for some period of time before you can enter the market? Or can you enter the market with a sub 100% again, you have to have it at some period of time. I'm just curious how that -- how you're using ARM as a gating factor to the long-haul entry.

Don Burnette

Analyst

Thanks, Jim, for the question. We -- there's no specified period of time. It's more of a minimum requirement. So yes, we would need to get to 100% on the readiness measure in order to feel comfortable that we have closed out the safety case for launching our driverless product. That being said, there's no specified amount of time between getting to 100 and actually doing the first driverless run, so to speak. And so it's a little bit premature and early to kind of talk about specifics at that sign of a granularity. And so what I would say is we're shooting for the second half of next year. And as we get closer to that moment, we should be able to provide additional clarity and more certainty around the timing of when we actually do our first deliveries.

James McIlree

Analyst

That's very helpful. And then as far as customer additions are concerned, is it more likely that you enter the long-haul market before getting another industrial customer? Or is it the opposite that it's more likely to get another industrial customer first?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Well, we're dual tracking that. We're continuing to push to build our industrial business. As we talked about in our remarks earlier, we feel really good about growing that vertical. We have a great customer in Atlas, and this is really a crawl, walk, run approach to deploying autonomy. This is a safety-critical technology. We want to make sure that it's rightsized for our customers as our customers are learning with us. There's a lot in the product pillar that goes into actually efficiently deploying this product. And you can't just dump hundreds or thousands of vehicles on a customer overnight and expect them to be able to efficiently operate those vehicles to provide a useful benefit. And so there's a learning process as we go through this customer development, and that's really where we talked about the flywheel earlier on. And so we are looking to pick up additional industrial customers, and we'll have more on that as we continue to move through the quarters. At the same time, the team, especially the R&D team, the systems engineering team and our validation team are working really hard to get the truck to the appropriate level of safety for deploying driverless. And so I think it's really a dual track multipronged effort. Those are parallel efforts. I think the goal would be to announce additional customers in both of those verticals along the way. I can't really say exactly to what time frame one would come before the other. These are both top issues.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen. Alright. We move to our next question, next question comes from the line of Mike Latimore of Northland Capital Markets.

Mike Latimore

Analyst

Congrats on the first call here and doubling the units in the quarter. That's great. I think Nauto's score was very positive. Can you leverage that? Are you leveraging that for marketing purposes after new prospects? And can that be helpful even, I don't know, in keeping insurance costs down?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Well, when you talk about new technology, especially within the safety -- safety critical realm like automotive driving, credibility and trust needs to be built over time. And we feel that the Nauto results really speaks to the safety of our system, especially as it compares to human driving. And that's one of those big question marks that people have had for many years, even over decades is how do these vehicles drive relative to existing humans, not just from a crash or accident percentage perspective, but what is the behavior by which they drive. And the exciting thing for us is I think this really demonstrates that not only are these vehicles not getting into accidents, which is kind of like your high-level metric, but they're also driving in a responsible, defensive and safe way. And that leads to better safety overall on our roadways. It also improves traffic and congestion. And so that's something that we think is really important as we deploy this technology more broadly and start to scale it. We want to be good citizens, not only to our customers, but also to the general motoring public. And this result simply speaks to the trustworthiness of the system for folks that don't have direct visibility into the system. Now how does that help Kodiak, of course, from a marketing perspective, but it helps from a regulatory perspective when we talk to regulators, they can get a sense for, hey, I have never seen this in action, and it's far away from where I drive day-to-day, but I can see that the score comprise over 1,000 fleets actually, they are the safest on the road. Same with our customers, right? We can take this data to our customers and show them not just 1 or 2 or 3 trucks, but we can say over the course of our entire operations of our fleet, we're actually behaving as safely and safer than human drivers on the road. And I think that really speaks to the credibility and trustworthiness of the system as a whole.

Mike Latimore

Analyst

Great. Obviously, a lot of focus on industrial and long haul. In the government vertical, a ton of focus just across the board on autonomous systems, whether it's in air, on sea, on the ground. Can you give a little more context or color around opportunities you might see in the government vertical?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Yes. It's been tricky as of late with the government shutdown, as we mentioned in our remarks. We still remain convicted that the defense vertical is a large opportunity for autonomy. The Secretary of Defense actually just made some remarks emphasizing the importance of contested logistics and actually prioritizing commercial solutions within the Army and other branches adoption of autonomy. We think this is the right approach, and we think that Kodiak has, we believe, the most mature, commercially viable autonomy solution that can be applied to defense applications. And of course, as you've seen, we've demonstrated that several times over across multiple vehicles in multiple different environments with our Ford F-150s and the versatility they bring, but also the Textron Systems RIPSAW platform, which is a fully threaded vehicle. We really demonstrated the ability to bring that commercial maturity into the defense market. And we believe that, that's what the defense market is ultimately looking for as they want to scale and productize this technology. So we remain very bullish in defense applications. It's an interesting world in the government space right now, but we think 2026 is going to be an exciting year. So I would say stay tuned for more.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

Nancy Hipp

Analyst

This is Nancy Hipp on for Ravi Shanker. It would be helpful to hear a bit about how you're managing adverse weather, extreme environments or edge case scenarios in your autonomous system and how big a risk those are to scaling? I know you had a GenAI system to identify sort of these novel edge cases, but it would be helpful to hear more on that as you approach the on-highway launch in 2026.

Don Burnette

Analyst

Sure. Well, in our -- I'll use an example, our industrial launch back in 2024. So we delivered 2 -- the first 2 driverless trucks in December of 2024 and very quickly got those trucks to a level where they were capable of operating, firstly, around the clock, so 24/7, which is important to our customer, Atlas, which is a 24/7 operation, but also importantly, in adverse weather conditions. And so this has been something that The Kodiak Driver has already been able to handle for several quarters now in a driverless fashion. And so we expect to be able to bring those capabilities ultimately over to the highway environment when we first launch our driverless product in the second half of next year. So yes, the team is definitely working on validating those capabilities for highway. That is all encapsulated in our safety case, which, as we said, we're now at 78% on our readiness measure. And so we have already experienced and importantly, our AI system has experienced an adverse weather already.

Nancy Hipp

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe for my second question, it would be helpful to hear about feedback you're receiving from your current partners after the launch with Atlas. And sort of how do you see that decision-making cycle for customers to go from initial discussions to adopting driverless trucks into a pilot to eventually scaling?

Don Burnette

Analyst

I think it's been an interesting journey, and the answer to that question has evolved quite a bit over the last decade, last several years and then to where we are today at the end of 2025. Our sense is that customers and the market broadly is excited about driverless deployment. It's more of a when can we get our hands on it as opposed to one of skepticism, which was not always true. If you go back several years, there was a lot of skeptical prospective carriers and truckload operators out there. These days, we don't -- we don't get as much skepticism. I think people realize that autonomy is the future of transportation broadly. That's true in the commercial market. That's true in the private vehicle market. And certainly, it's our belief at Kodiak that automation will make all the transportation modalities more efficient and safer over time. And of course, customers want to take advantage of that. They recognize that there's first-mover advantage and they want to move quickly. And of course, we want to be able to deliver a safe and efficient solution to them. More importantly, not just a safe solution, but one that they can actually utilize and hopefully utilize out of the gate. And again, this is where that flywheel effect comes in. Yes, we have an industrial application launched today, which is in a different domain than highway, but the customer interactions are largely the same for what we will bring to our over-the-road highway customers when we do eventually launch that product. And those are learnings that you can't really get other than doing -- and we think that this flywheel is going to accelerate our progress as we begin to scale our highway deployment. So I think customers are excited for it. I think they're waiting patiently to get their hands on the first driverless trucks that they can, and we hope to be the leading provider of those solutions for the customers broadly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

On those routes in Dallas, as you kind of prove out the safety case, Aurora, when they were proving out their safety case, I guess, got some pushback from their partner, PACCAR. Just curious if that's a risk scenario where you prove out your safety case, but the partner doesn't want it. And is there -- I'm going to extend that. I think you had mentioned kind of J.B. Hunt there as well. Do they have any saying this? Do they care? I mean I assume they're just -- if you're just delivering goods from one point to another, they shouldn't care, but who knows maybe they don't want the brand subjected to that risk. So if you can just talk about kind of who needs to sign off, if anyone, for you to go driver out on those trips from Dallas?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Thanks, Walter. It's a great question. I think there's like the legal sense of the question, who needs to legally sign off and then from a trustworthiness and good partnership perspective, there's who do you want to bring along. Our philosophy is we've always built our technology to be platform agnostic. We've shown that we can develop The Kodiak Driver and implement The Kodiak Driver across many different makes, models and form factors of vehicles. This gives us flexibility. So we haven't announced the platform that we will be using for our initial highway deployment. I think you asked, is this a risk? Everything is a risk. I would definitely say it's a risk. At the same time, we think building the right relationships and the safety of the technology in the right way and bringing people along, including them in the process is the right way to approach business. And so we think we have a path forward to deploy driverless vehicles without a driver and without an observer in the cab, and that's something that we definitely intend to do. But for sure, building trust with our partners is paramount in that process.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

And then just kind of sticking with that partnership question, I guess. You've elected to upfit, right? And obviously, you've generated $800,000 of revenue. I think Aurora's revenue is like $1 million, so not even that much difference in the current quarter. I'm just curious like at what point, if at all, do you -- is it important to be integrated off the line, that type of stuff? I mean I know it's still early days, not a '26, not a '27, like do we just not worry about this or not consider this for some extended period of time? Or are there things in the works that you have planned for, I don't know, '27 or '28?

Don Burnette

Analyst

I don't think it's important to draw a line in the sand and pick a date like a switchover date. I don't think that's the right way to think about it. I think the right way to think about it is in terms of rollout and scale. In a lot of my conversations, there's this sense that thousands or even tens of thousands of autonomous trucks are going to fall from the sky and end up on our [ roadways ]. We're going to wake up on Monday morning and tens of thousands of autonomous vehicles are going to be out on the road. And we don't really think that's true. There's a progression to rolling this out, both from a safety, efficiency and operational perspective. And our current approach, we believe, scales into many, many thousands of trucks, which should be sufficient for the foreseeable future, short to medium term. And then -- that also depends on the development cycles for partners, OEMs and other providers within the autonomy space. And we don't control those time lines and something that I've said for a very long time is that I don't want to be beholden to time lines of other companies. I want to be able to take charge and control our own destiny. I think that's something that Kodiak has really done well, and we've executed on. We will continue to follow that philosophy over the next several years. We want to make sure that we have a product that we can deliver to customers when we are ready to deliver that product. And ultimately, when the ecosystem matures and when suppliers are ready, I think you're going to see access to broader scale, not just for Kodiak, but for the industry at large. And so I don't really think of it as a black or white or a line in the sand or a date on the calendar. It will come. It is a gradual progression. We are working hand-in-hand with suppliers, both on the Tier 1 side and the OEM side. We're tracking progress. They're tracking our progress. And so it's not something that we're losing sleep over, and we feel like the position we're in with the experience we've gained now developing an upfit solution and with our partner, Roush, that we've set ourselves up for success in the next coming years.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Yes, sir. We can.

Itay Michaeli

Analyst

Perfect. Sorry about before. Congrats on the first earnings call. So going back to the 78% long-haul arm, Don, I was hoping you could maybe share roughly where that metric was maybe 3, 6, 12 months ago. And then on the OTA that you did that reduced the remote assistance by over 50%, curious if you could talk a bit more about that as well and kind of what are some of the issues that were resolved with that update?

Don Burnette

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. Thanks for the question, Itay. I'm glad that we cleared up the mic issue. So we don't have any numbers, historical numbers to share, unfortunately. This is our first data point. And of course, we will share updated data points going into the future, so you can see the trends. So unfortunately, I don't have a number to share on the historical aspect of that. Obviously, over the first several quarters of the year, we were focused very hard on delivering additional driverless trucks to Atlas and really perfecting the operation of those vehicles in that environment. And as we turn our focus to highway and our highway customers over the course of 2026, we'll have a lot more updates for you as we go. In terms of the improvement, this is incredibly exciting because efficiency is ultimately what will drive margins. And while all autonomous vehicles today require some type of remote support in certain circumstances, remote assistance in certain circumstances. It is our job as R&D developers to drive down the moments that any kind of assistance is required. So there's no specific instances I can point to or specific cases. But you can imagine that these trucks are very conservative, and they often will come to a stop if they see something they're not sure about. There's a lot of potholes that are present in the Permian. And often our truck will stop and ask human assistance for confirmation that they can continue or should they drive around it or is it safe? And ultimately, we want that conservative behavior in our trucks. But as we improve the technology, as our AI improves, as our foundation model work improves, the scene understanding, and we gave several examples of these in our deck, our scene understanding improves dramatically. The trucks can start to handle those cases on their own, and they need to call for human support less and less. And so we've actually reduced that, as we said, over 50% in the last quarter, and that's a huge, huge win and a sign that the technology is accelerating very, very quickly, and we expect that type of acceleration to continue.

Itay Michaeli

Analyst

That's great and good to see the progress there. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the financials. Of the roughly $6.5 million of CapEx in the quarter, can you share roughly how much of that is for purchase for soon-to-be-delivered trucks versus kind of in-period delivered trucks?

Surajit Datta

Analyst

Thanks. It's a great question. Most of the CapEx is for future deployment as we need some lead time to acquire -- purchase the -- purchase the AV hardware components and then get it assembled. So most of that relates to the future deployment and ramp, what I would call it like success-based. So as we plan out the deployment for each quarter, we tend to make those purchases. But it's not exactly linear as well. Sometimes we may make some bulk purchases if the pricing is attractive or if there are potential tariff situations. So we look at that as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Kodiak's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now...