Jeff Kaminski
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon everyone. I will now review the financial highlights of our second quarter performance as well as our outlook for the third quarter and full year. In the quarter, housing revenues grew 33% from the year ago to $807 million, fueled by a 30% increase in homes delivered and a 2% rise in our overall average selling price. Each of our four regions generated a strong double-digit increase in homes delivered, which drove significant year-over-year improvements in our home-building operating income, operating margin, and bottom line for the quarter. We were particularly pleased with the increase in our backlog conversion rate to 54%, which reflected improved performance by mortgage lenders, higher-than-anticipated sales and deliveries of standing inventory, and shorter construction cycle time. However, we are cautious about projecting similar cycle time improvements for the second half of the year given anticipated seasonally heightened demand for construction services and the tight supply of skilled trades in many markets. For the third quarter we expect to generate housing revenues in the range of $900 million to $960 million, and for the full year we are raising our housing revenue guidance to a range of $3.45 billion to $3.7 billion based on our strong second quarter net order performance. Our overall average selling price of homes delivered in the quarter increased 2% year over year to approximately $347,000. This increase was lower than anticipated, largely due to a mix shift within our West Coast region as a greater proportion of deliveries were from communities with lower ASPs in our coastal market and a higher proportion of overall regional deliveries came from our inland California market that produced very favorable delivery results relative to expectations for the quarter. As a result, the ASP for our West Coast region declined 2% year over year while our other three regions combined posted an increase of nearly 7%. For the 2016 third quarter, we are projecting an overall average selling price in the range of $375,000 to $380,000. In light of the robust 29% net order growth in our West Coast region during the second quarter, we expect the mix shift towards higher-priced deliveries for the balance of the year, supporting our expectation for a 4% to 6% year-over-year increase in our full year ASP. Before reviewing the remaining financial metrics, I will provide more specifics on the components of the inventory-related charges that impacted the quarter. The $11.7 million total included $6.8 million relating to the wind-down of our Metro Washington, D.C. operations that we announced last month, and $4.9 million for four land option contract abandonments in other markets, and an impairment for reactivated community in our West Coast region. It is important to note that, of the $11.7 million of total inventory related charges affecting our home-building operating income, only $6.4 million impacted our housing gross profit margin. The remaining $5.3 million, which related to planned future land sales, was included in our land sale results. Our housing gross profit margin of 15.5% for the second quarter included the $6.4 million of inventory impairment and abandonment charges I just mentioned, which equated to an impact of 80 basis points. Without these inventory related charges, our gross margin was 16.3%. Excluding both the inventory-related charges and the amortization of previously capitalized interest, our adjusted housing gross profit margin was 20.7%, up 40 basis points from the 2015 second quarter. Our selling, general and administrative expense ratio of 11.6% for the second quarter improved 140 basis points from the year-earlier quarter, due to favorable leverage on the higher housing revenues in the quarter and our ongoing cost containment initiatives. Home-building operating income margin for the quarter increased 30 basis points year over year to 3.2%. In addition to the inventory-related charges, the second quarter operating margin included the impact of approximately $600,000 for severance and increased employee incentive accruals relating to the Metro Washington, D.C. wind-down. After excluding total inventory related charges from both periods, this metric improved 170 basis points from the year-earlier quarter to 4.7%. Turning now to our operating margin guidance, as a result of the increased orders and absorption pays at both our reactivated communities and other lower-margin communities that were previously underperforming relative to their sales goals, we are tempering our housing gross margin expectations for the second half of the year. Assuming no inventory impairment or land option contract abandonment charges, we believe our third quarter gross margin will improve on a sequential basis to approximately 16.5% and anticipate that we will be in the range of 16.7% to 16.9% for the full year. We currently expect the improvement in operating leverage from the increased second quarter order absorption pace to offset the expected impact on second half consolidated gross margin. We also anticipate our third quarter SG&A expense ratio to be approximately 10.8% and the full year ratio to be just below 11%, an improvement relative to both our previous guidance and the prior-year result. Considering this offsetting impact, we believe our full-year operating income margin, excluding inventory-related charges, will be in the range of 5.8% to 6.0%. Income tax expense for the quarter represented an effective tax rate of 37.1% and included a favorable impact of $400,000 of federal energy tax credit. In the same quarter 2015, we recognized $1.7 million of such tax credits on much lower pretax earnings, resulting in a 24.5% effective tax rate. These energy credits are a direct result of our sustainability and energy efficiency initiatives. We expect to recognize a larger amount of this tax credit during the second half of 2016 and project an effective tax rate of approximately 31% for the third quarter and in the range of 32% to 34% for the full year. Our second quarter average community count of 242 was down slightly from the 248 in the same quarter 2015, which had increased 30% from the previous year. We ended the quarter with 242 communities, about flat sequentially but down 7% from a year ago. Included in the 242 communities at quarter-end were 37 communities previously classified as land held for future development. As mentioned earlier, during the quarter many of these communities realized accelerated order absorption rate. By activating these communities we reduced our land held for future development by approximately $100 million from the end of the 2015 second quarter. The community activations have also contributed to the decrease in our interest expense by expanding the qualifying asset base we use to determine capitalized interest. The monetization of these land positions is contributing to increased asset efficiency and improved return. We plan to continue to unlock our investments in these properties and redeploy the capital into assets with expected higher income-producing potential. We anticipate our average community count will decline by about 7% in the 2016 third quarter as compared to the same quarter 2015, which had increased 30% from the previous year. For the full year of 2016, we still expect our average community count to be relatively flat compared to 2015, which had expanded 22% from 2014. Looking beyond the current year, we believe our planned openings will drive and increase in our community count beginning in the first quarter of 2017. During the second quarter we invested approximately $317 million in land and land development, with $127 million or 40% of the total representing land acquisitions and the remainder spent on development to convert owned land into new communities. We ended the quarter with unrestricted cash of $275 million, compared to $440 million at the end of the second quarter of last year. As a reminder, we use approximately $200 million of that cash in June of 2015 to retire senior notes upon maturity and approximately $86 million for common stock repurchases in the 2016 first quarter. In conclusion, we are pleased with our strong second quarter performance and are confident about our ability to achieve our goals and produce further improvements in the second half of the year. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the lines.