Neal West
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead
Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 12 with an overview of conversion revenue. Conversion revenue for the third quarter 2023 was $357 million, an increase of $35 million or 11% compared to the prior year period. Looking at each of our end markets in detail. Aero, high strength straight conversion revenue totaled $134 million in the third quarter of 2023, reflecting a 72% improvement on a 69% increase in shipments over the prior year quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, we delivered a 3% improvement in conversion revenue as expected on a modest increase in shipments as demand continue to strengthen towards peak levels. Packaging conversion revenue was $118 million in the third quarter, down 9% year-over-year. While shipments reflect a 5% improvement over last year's period, which, as a reminder, was impacted by our magnesium-related declaration of force majeure, ongoing destocking in the market, primarily for coated fruit products in the third quarter negatively affected our results. On a sequential basis, third quarter conversion revenue was down 12% on a 5% decline in shipments over the second quarter of 2023 as the mix was more heavily weighted towards lower body stock versus coated products. General engineering conversion revenue for the third quarter was $75 million, down 16% year-over-year due to a 24% reduction in shipments as destocking, primarily for plate products persisted. Sequentially, conversion revenue was down 8% on a 6% reduction in shipments compared to our second quarter results which as noted by Keith, was slightly better than our expectations. Automotive conversion revenue was $28 million, up 16% over the third quarter of 2022 and a 6% increase in shipments due primarily to higher pricing. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, conversion revenue and shipments both declined by 8% due to the impact of industry supply chain issues and uncertainty around the UAW strike. Additional details on conversion revenue and shipments by end market application can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Now moving to Slide 13. Reported operating income for the third quarter of 2023 was $19 million. After adjusting for corporate restructuring costs and other non-run rate items of approximately $1 million, adjusted operating income was $20 million, up $17 million year-over-year and down $17 million sequentially. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 2% compared to 33% in the prior year period due to discrete items taken during the quarter. For the full year 2023 and over the long term, we continue to expect our effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the low to mid-20% range under current tax regulations. We anticipate that our 2023 cash taxes, for foreign and state taxes, will be in the $2 million to $3 million range with no US federal cash taxes until we consume our federal NOLs, which as of year-end 2022 were $161 million. Reported net income for the third quarter of 2023 was $5 million or $0.34 per diluted share compared to a net income of approximately $3 million or $0.16 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. After adjusting for a total of $3 million of pretax non-run rate items, adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2023 was $7 million or $0.46 per adjusted diluted share compared to an adjusted net loss of $3 million or a loss of $0.21 per adjusted diluted share in a prior quarter. As a reminder, in the third quarter of 2022, we recorded a $13 million of pretax other income, primarily related to a sale of a non-strategic legacy land asset. Now turning to Slide 14. Adjusted EBITDA for third quarter 2023 was $48 million, up approximately $19 million from the prior year quarter and down $16 million sequentially, which was slightly ahead of our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of conversion revenue was 13.3% in the third quarter of '23, an improvement of approximately 440 basis points from the third quarter of 2022. On a year-over-year basis, the improvement in adjusted EBITDA was primarily the result of stabilizing operations following the significant supply chain issues we experienced at our Warrick growing mill last year, in addition to improved pricing to capture the higher cost of alloys and other inflationary costs with a higher mix of aerospace product shipments. On a sequential basis, as Keith discussed, adjusted EBITDA was pressured primarily by destocking and inflationary costs, minimizing our cost reduction efforts across our platform. Now turning to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. As of the end of September 2023, total cash of approximately $45 million and approximately $529 million of borrowing availability in our revolving credit facility provided total liquidity of $574 million. There were no outstanding borrowings under our revolving credit facility as of September 29, and it remains undrawn. We continue to believe that our total liquidity position remains strong. As a reminder, our senior notes interest costs have fixed at $48 million annually, and we have no debt maturing until 2028. As of September 2023, our net debt leverage ratio improved to 5.4 times from 7 times at the end of 2022. We continue to target a leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times by way of improvements to our profitability over time. Further, we are working through our previously discussed higher cost metal inventory overhang resulting from the 2022 supply chain issues at our Warrick operation. While we continue to expect our efforts through service as a positive source of cash, the destocking we have been experiencing in the packaging market throughout 2023, will prolong this endeavor until 2024. As such, we currently expect to sell the remaining balance of higher cost metal units by the end of Q1 2024. In regards to our capital allocation strategy, our approach is duly focused on supporting our growth while concurrently returning value to our stockholders. We now expect our full year 2023 capital expenditures to be at the lower end of the range of $170 million to $180 million. While the timing of certain capital expenditures primarily associated with our roll coat expansion project at our Warrick facility have shifted to 2024, the project remains on track for startup in the second half of 2024. Additionally, on October 12, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share which demonstrates our confidence our Board and management team have in our long-term strategy for profitable growth and increasing shareholders value. And now I'll turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our outlook. Keith?