Earnings Labs

James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, May 19, 2016

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Transcript

Louis Gries

Management

Okay, thanks. Good morning, everybody. I appreciate you joining our results call today. We're going to do this - I am Louis Gries, obviously and Matt Marsh is here, our CFO. We’re going to do this like we do pretty much every time. I’ll give a very quick overview of the businesses, how they performed and then Matt will go in more detail. After Matt’s done we will go to Q&A for investor, analysts and then at the end if we have any media we will go to media questions. So, sorry, I flipped through those early slides, which is the disclaimer. So I am on slide number six I guess. I think you had a chance to look at the results. Basically the quarter was flatter than you would have thought it was going to be in the quarter from both net operating profit and EBIT and that brought us in a little short where most of you were expecting for the full year in net operating profit. That’s kind of a one-off, it’s not a one off from an accounting standpoint, but it was isolated incident we had in one of our manufacturing plants in the US, so I will go to that. That’s where we came up short on the EBIT side. Overall I think we finished a good year. The growth was flatter than what we are used to and certainly that's our main focus as we move into fiscal year ‘17. We talked about the last couple of quarters. I think we do have some traction starting on the PDG again and that will be our main focus going forward as far as the financials in the business in the US are strong, Asia-Pac pretty much right through the region are strong. Europe had a…

Matt Marsh

Management

Good morning. Thanks, Louis. So for the Group, fourth quarter Group results, net sales were up 6%. As Louis said, we had higher volumes in both segment, higher price in Asia Pacific, price was down a little bit in the fourth quarter in the North America and Europe segment and for the Group overall we had some headwind with the strong US dollar. You can see gross profit was up about 40 basis points. Overall that’s a combination of the isolated production issue that Louis talked about in the US combined with the tail end of the Carole Park startup costs as well as a continued strong US dollar and the adverse effect that’s got on pulp purchases for Asia Pacific. Adjusted net operating profit was up 4%. If you take out for the impact of FX it would be up 10%. We don’t talk about foreign exchange too much because we don’t control it and we don’t think it matters, but you will see in a couple slides in aggregate for the year at a relatively big impact. Adjusted EBIT was up for again excluding FX it would be up 7%. Interest expense was up obviously as the debt level was higher year-over-year. So we had net operating profit in the quarter of 28.8. For the full year we had net sales of $1.728 billion, up 4%. A similar story, higher volumes in both segments, good price traction in Asia Pacific, flat price in the North America Europe segment. Excluding the effect of foreign exchange, net sales would have been up 8%. You see gross profit margins were up 170 basis points. As we’ve said in each of the loss three quarters the US plants had a good year overall and the production efficiencies that we’ve seen there over…

Q - Emily Smith

Management

Just a couple of questions from me, Emily Smith from Deutsche Bank, just looking at your volume growth numbers, 11% looks like a pretty good number to me, I wondered if you could sort of clarify what that might have been on a like-for-like basis without the pool forwarding the previous corresponding period. So just running what the - wondering what the sort of real volume growth might be. And I guess bearing that in mind looking into the Q1, you are obviously, well it was tough comp this quarter, obviously a bit of an easier comp in the next quarter, just wondering if you can give us a little bit of help there? And looking at the your utilization, your plants, you obviously mentioned Plant City, where is you utilization sitting at the moment and just finally on PDG, you said November is probably when you’ll know if you’ve been successful but it is, would it be fair to say that early signs are looking pretty positive that you guys feel comfortable that you’re back on track in that PDG sense?

Louis Gries

Management

Okay, thanks Emily. So the 1st question is kind of an order file question, we did have a price increase that had some portfolio volume last year. So, we felt the first-quarter - the fourth comp was going to be a more difficult quarter the comp against the first-quarter coming up. And all that does remain the same, so we definitely had a stronger volume quarter in the fourth quarter than we are expecting. And our order file right now looks pretty good. So, we would expect to comp well against first-quarter numbers. When you put into together and kind of figure well, put them together then you don't have to worry about the price increase and all that and that's what I said we’re pretty happy with the number. The market we had different views on the market even internally, I think it’s just a little bit better than it was and then other thinks it's pretty much the same as it was. So if you put all together that’s why I say we kind of on to clearing that, we are back on the PDG curve we want to be on but we do believe we have traction, so the market might be growing a little bit better, if it is obviously we're getting that benefit but we definitely feel we’re getting some benefit traction on the PDG side. Utilization, the way we calculate our utilization on a gross hour basis, so we still have some plants that don't run 24/7 and we have some lines that don't run 24/7. So the number is not, the overall number is not really the issue right, if certainly product categories getting a little bit tight and probably the most significant one is Plant City, I mean in HLD which is actually in South, and that’s where we need the Plant City line up. ,:

Andrew Johnston

Management

Andrew Johnston, CLSA. Just a couple of questions around geography, Lou if I could around the US, what trends are you seeing across difference parts of the US. And then secondly on those US margins, I think you mentioned that it would have been 26 without the Europe issue, without the FX issue and is that also without the seven mill plant issue as well?

Louis Gries

Management

So, yeah we ran 26 and we could have run a little bit more than that in the US I we didn’t have that production issue. As far as geography, I know you’re specifically interested in Texas and Texas is fine. Houston a little bit off, Dallas real good shape, most of the other markets in South Texas are in good shape, so our volume in Texas is up year over year, so we sold more in fiscal year ‘16 then we did ‘15. And some of that PDG but even our market index is slightly up in Texas. So I don't know how the Texas market is held up to be oil price reduction as well as it has, it's done pretty well. As far as other parts of the country, I think everyone is back in a growth position, Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, California and obviously some are harder than the others but when you go and we did do this earlier when we were working on our PDG analysis. It really balances out to almost being meaningless for our company. So we are participating in all those markets and the variance between markets isn’t great enough to really impact our growth rate, so the US housing market although it's low by historical standards has been good from a year-to-year improvement.

Andrew Johnston

Management

Particularly targeting vinyl in the Northeast and we saw some ridiculously high numbers for vinyl volumes in the first quarter?

Louis Gries

Management

I think we had some ridiculous numbers up there as well and that was just a monthly variance thing. I don't know why, at the same time we had a bit of a spike, they had a bit of a spike. But again we track the VSI number and we do look at it. I mean we look at the public companies and once they give us the information, we were able to correlate pretty closely with our reduction in PDG pretty well timed to slowing of the rate of decline in vinyl citing. And right now if you bring that forward six months and say okay you think your PDG is better, do you think vinyl is doing worse, you really can’t declare that either, they have a okay trend, they went through a softening and then they kind of have an okay trend right now. But believe me if you’re invested in Hardie, you’re investing on a basis that vinyl is going to continue to decline and we are certainly of the belief and we think we’re seeing it but you can’t look at short term numbers and always pull it out exactly, especially monthly numbers you just can't do. But again whether it’s hard citing, vinyl, we always look at everything four-quarter rolling. And when we are talking to in August, we didn’t like or even in November, we did like the four-quarter rolling. We like the four-quarter rolling better for the three categories than we did either in November or August.

Peter Stein

Management

Thanks first, so Peter Stein, Macquarie. Could you perhaps just give us a bit more of a sense and a background on the issue with the plant?

Louis Gries

Management

I mean we’re not going to give you all the details and we’ve decided to not tell you which facility, just embarrass the facility any further. But the - yeah, it was a just a management mistake, it was a breakdown in the management system, we made products that shouldn't have been made and we had [indiscernible] situation that cost us about $7 million.

Peter Stein

Management

And that’s obviously at the EBIT line?

Louis Gries

Management

Pardon me?

Peter Stein

Management

That’s at the EBIT line?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, cost of goods sold that’s in, right.

Peter Stein

Management

And then perhaps just the second question around costs, how are you seeing the cost environment specifically in the broader pulp context of the next period, some views on that?

Louis Gries

Management

I do have views but Matt would be more informed, these guys work on the numbers, so I’ll have Matt run through that for you.

Matt Marsh

Management

So, like we said for last year, obviously pulp was down compared to the prior year. We think for fiscal ‘17, we don't necessarily know if the forecasts are right, I mean the external forecast, I think a lot of them are calling for it to come back up, we’re not seeing that yet, we continue to sort of see it down to flattening. So if it goes back up, it will sort of go back up or flatten back out, so we’re expecting pulp for the next year to be pretty similar to the pricing that we’re seeing now and then we’ll just sort of see how it plays out, obviously that’s on the US dollar side, as long as the US dollar stays strong that will continue to have an adverse effect on how we purchase it in Asia-Pacific.

Andrew Scott

Management

Matt, Andrew Scott from RBC. Just Louis mentioned possibility of adding capacity in the Philippines, I think the market is batting up against utilization. Can you just give us some guidance on what the spend might be and timeframe on that?

Matt Marsh

Management

Yes, we are just starting to go through the approval process. We have gone through their approval process, so we are just starting to go through the projects process. I think it will be in $20 million range is what that line and incremental facility cost will end up being. We will do most of the construction work over the next 12 to 18 months and then start to move into a commissioning phase right after that.

Andrew Scott

Management

And is that plan with a view to purely servicing the Philippines market or do you look either broader field maybe within Asia or specific product categories that might be coming down here?

Matt Marsh

Management

Yes, it’s primarily the Philippines, I mean they also service - they do some export business, and we have constrained that business, the Philippines business on their export side. Particularly, this year we took a little bit of their capacity out of exports in order to fund the internal market, that’s just - that’s a higher return sale for us obviously, and it was a way for us to manage the capacity of that plant and maximize the returns while we were - until we get the new capacity on board. So as the new line comes on over, let’s call it 18 months from now, we would obviously allow them to start to ramp back up the export sales. But the main reason for the doing the capacity expansion is because the Philippines market is quite good and the team is getting good traction there and the business is getting good traction in the market, and it’s equivalent of PDG.

Andrew Scott

Management

Thank you.

Matt Marsh

Management

Any questions on the phone?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Hind of Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

John Hind

Management

Good morning, Louis and Matt. Congratulations on a good result. Just a quick one or couple of quick ones for me, perhaps if we could talk about the strategy around the buyback program please, obviously you didn’t get pretty much at the last one, and share prices were in at $19 then, so - I mean, what is the thinking around that? I mean, how should we be thinking about it?

Matt Marsh

Management

Probably, you won’t believe me we actually do it, I don’t it. It’s probably what you’re really thinking. So I mean, obviously we changed a couple of things last year. One, I was trying to shift the way from special dividends. I think we have done that. I think there doesn’t seem to be an expectation at the moment on the special and I think that’s a good thing. That’s in line with what we are trying to do on the balance sheet and from an overall capital allocation standpoint. Two; historically, over the last several years, we have announced up to 5% of issued capital as the share buyback program and obviously that would be a very large number. And so this year, what we are trying to do is announce a number that we are actually going to do. And so that’s the reason that we have announced $100 million. And then the other thing I would say is we intend to actually go do it. So it was a strategy all along, a year ago when we moved away from special dividend to share buyback to - step one of that was to get away from specials, and step two is get to a quantum and then actually go execute on the quantum, and I think now we will go and do that. So I am hoping over the next 3 to 6 months that we will execute on the share buyback and either the next time that we are talking or certainly the next time that I am here, we won’t be talking about whether or not we are doing a share buyback.

John Hind

Management

Thanks. And Louis, I think you mentioned some PDG program tune-ups this quarter, can you perhaps give us some color of what was involved there? I mean, are they ongoing and what you think that - I guess the net impact [indiscernible]?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, I think on our PDG, if you look at the story over the last year, I think as we started focus on doing some other things right in the business that either had financial returns or the HardieBacker growth, the concerns about LP trying to grab the [indiscernible] position in our category, all that work kind of distracted us from the main PDG work of positioning Hardie against vinyl kind of with our market development models that we developed over the last 10 years. So I think it’s just really aimed reemphasizing the need to be running the vinyl as well as we do these other things that are also important at a business. And again, I think Ryan and his team in North America have definitely made that shift. And market development isn’t like sales development where you walk into the door, you talk to a customer and you walk out, maybe with a few extra orders. Market development is changing behaviors in the market you are participating in, so it takes a little time to see the results. We get some early indications, obviously we see commitments and conversions before we see volume. So our early indicators are definitely ticking up for us. So we are pretty happy. Now, that’s all about everything I said there was mainly about new construction in vinyl markets. Our programs in R&R had been performing well. And probably we softened a bit as far as the conversion rate in R&R for a while. We really didn’t have to do much to kind of reemphasize that. There was a little bit of analysis required on the new construction side and not so much on the R&R side. So we’ve got the people, we’ve added people into the business, we have structured it a little bit differently to where we get the right amount of attention on the exterior products, and vinyl in particular, and still get a good result on interiors, so they are running as separate organizations now, which I think is helpful. So it’s just kind of that stuff, it’s just tune up organization, resource allocation, just all the normal stuff you’re supposed to do and we just lost a little traction and we are trying to get it back.

John Hind

Management

Thanks. Just one more, I guess the new and R&R split, was there much of a change this quarter and how is it going to look - how do you think it’s going to look in FY17?

Louis Gries

Management

Sorry, I missed the first part of your question.

John Hind

Management

Sorry. Your traditional split between R&R and new volumes, normally it’s sort of 40/60?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, sorry about that. We are growing in both segments, so it probably won’t change radically until there is a change in market demand, meaning when next time we run into a housing recession. Right now, we are growing in both segments. R&R is bigger than new construction, especially now, because even though housing starts have improved for several years in a row, they are still not at the - what the normal level is. But yes, we are doing well in both segments. I am pretty satisfied with where we are at now. New construction, we talked a little about mix. As new construction grows faster than R&R, which it does, say R&R is growing 4 to 5 now, and say new construction grew 6 to 8, maybe last year, I don’t know. What happens is, we sell more Cemplank, because in south, our new construction brand for big builders is Cemplank, which does have different price point than our Hardie brand. So that was one of the mix things I was talking about. If we get - we will get another year, we believe where new construction grows faster than R&R and that’s just naturally kind of force your average price down a little bit.

John Hind

Management

All right. Thank you very much.

Louis Gries

Management

I get on to that question.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Peros of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Andrew Peros

Management

Good morning. Thank you. Just a question around Windows and the European business, obviously still having a negative impact on margins. Just wondering, how long do you think that will continue for before it starts to have a positive impact on the margins?

Louis Gries

Management

So with Windows, we are looking for a new product line for Hardie, it’s obviously not fiber cement, it does touch our fiber cement model and that it has a similar customer and value proposition in the R&R market. But it’s standing for a large return down the road. So going into the initiative, we knew we are going to lose X million dollars for the first, and to answer your question, it’s the first three years, we think it’s going to run negative EBITs. And those negative EBITs will reduce significantly this year and then in fiscal year 2018, where we have got it drawn up right now is, they have reduced again or possibly go away here by sure, the following year would be somewhat positive. So it’s all expensed, so you’re seeing everything. You’re not seeing a bunch of capital spending and everything behind the scenes on Windows. All you’re seeing is expense. It’s not super big dollars for what we are trying to do, I think I don’t know if you guys know that, that runs under Mark Fisher, as Mark Fisher heads International and he has non-fiber cements that runs under his non-fiber cement responsibility. That team is separate from the US business. We did that specifically, so we wouldn’t be paying an opportunity cost in the US business as we try to start up Windows business. And like I said, we had a little bumpy start. Few things were harder than we thought they were going to be. It took us three, four months to sort out some of that stuff. But over the last six months, we feel like it’s a well-controlled initiative that’s kind of giving us what we want to see in the market and it’s also kind of given us the contribution margin at the unit level that we are looking for. But that contribution right now has not covered the fixed cost in the business, so that’s how you end with your loss. But we are a positive contribution on the Windows we are producing and selling at this point.

Andrew Peros

Management

Okay. Can I ask a question around US volumes, slightly differently and I appreciate them, it might be a little bit hard to answer. But just wondering how much of the volume improvement that you saw was attributed to possibly the mild winter months that you saw over the last quarter and just kind of get some thoughts around that?

Louis Gries

Management

Oh, mild weather. Yes, weather is not bad. The weather is not bad, we don’t talk about weather and I guess, we are only the exception when it’s bad, we don’t talk about it. But we don’t talk about it when it’s good either. But yes, I wouldn’t have a way of guessing. I think [indiscernible] starts, completions, so I think you can pull that out of the US data. Obviously, we don’t think it’s driving our number. So it sound like there are no other markets there on fire because everyone is built through January and February. We just haven’t seen it. But you can get it from US builders, you can get it from the data on completions, but I don’t have any specific information like a couple of percent came from that or whatever. But the weather has been okay this summer, it hasn’t been one of the bad ones.

Andrew Peros

Management

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Keith Chau of JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Keith Chau

Management

Good morning, Louis and Matt. Couple of questions from my end. First one, Louis, just revisiting the mix impact on the coming year, I was just wondering that a few of your larger customers being the larger homebuilders or the end customers suggesting that first homebuyer activity has actually come back into the market and a few of the large guys are shifting their mix of products from move up into the entry level buy. Is that likely to have a further effect on mix in years ahead, or do you think the shift from the move up buyer to the entry level buyers are going to have too much of an impact on price?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, that’s a good question. So when we weren’t - we clearly weren’t happy with our PDG, we tried to kind of go through all the arithmetic, already mentioned we went through the geographic mix, but we also went through the housing mix as well. And just to remind everyone, when we are selling against vinyl, we are going to be much more biased to the top, so in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast Canada, we are going to be biased toward the top, and that’s where our market development programs are basically run. When we are selling against hard sighting, then we are going to all the way through to market, we are going to go multifamily, starter home, first move, second move, semi and custom. So it doesn’t affect us nationally - when one say that top is better than bottom or vice versa, it doesn’t affect us nationally, but it does affect us in the northern markets. Having said that, it’s not enough to worry about. It’s not enough for us to change what we want to do and I don’t think it’s enough for investors to think this is going to be better than I thought or this isn’t going to be as good as I thought, because I think in the end, it’s going to level out at some point where either the country continues to spend more on housing or less on housing and it will settle in at a basic terminal opportunity of whatever it be X or Y, and then we are going to - 35% against that is going to give you a big number. It’s still going to give you a big number, whether it’s X or Y and as you go through the business cycle, it changes and we don’t adjust much. So we don’t - most of you know, when we went into the downturn, we definitely moved resources off of new construction and put them on R&R. So that kind of a big shift we wouldn’t make if we had a similar situation. But we wouldn’t say there was a forecast out that starter homes are going to lag to market for the next seven years. We wouldn’t pull resources off starter homes, because our position in each of those categories is kind of what adds up to be in our value in the end and there is always going to be enough starter homes first move, second move, customs, they are always going to be enough that we are going to want to target it with our resources. So I won’t worry about it. I can’t remember what the trend is right now. Over the years I always see these trends and I will be honest with you, when we sit down and talk every month or so about how the month went, it’s never, the wrong houses are being built, we did the wrong things. So we didn’t do things as well as we wanted to.

Keith Chau

Management

Okay. Thanks Louis. And just a follow up question on some of the issues that you had done wrong that you have mentioned on the cost side, do you think the couple of issues on the manufacturing front, some bit more systematic being the manufacturing issues over the past kind of year or two that have now been resolved, some more sporadic local management system issue that you’ve just had. Are there any internal issues - sorry, internal processes that you have put in place in order to prevent against risk mitigation strategy to prevent these issues from occurring because it seems as though the [indiscernible] there is a cost issue at some point during the year?

Louis Gries

Management

That’s not a bad comment. I don’t know if we just tell you about our issues or other people don’t have issues like we have every 18 months, 24 months. It seems like we are going to lose a ball mill on one place and then this thing wasn’t so much equipment related and then we lose ball mill in another place and so I’ll have to admit as good a manufacturers as we are, it’s kind of irritating. Having said that, whenever we get into situation like that, we review the root cause, and we try and shore up our programs, both at the plant level and the oversight level. So we’ve certainly done that with the most recent event. Will it never happen again? I doubt. I think, we will have some bumps in the road. I mean, the manufacturing story is pretty interesting. Matt kind of alluded to it. When you look at the level of manufacturing efficiencies we are getting in the US businesses and to some extent prior to the startup at Carole Park and the Australian business as well, we are on a steady improvement curve on manufacturing efficiencies, unit cost, waste generation, machine utilization, delayed time, time between runs, all that stuff is good. And then you have these bumps where all of a sudden you have - you just have an episode you shouldn’t have and it cost you a fair amount - enough money where you got to explain it and I think you got to explain it. So yeah, I can’t guarantee, we wouldn’t have another one next year, but I do believe that our organization is kind of learning a lesson that you can aim, we like to say step change when you bring a plant from running, say,…

Keith Chau

Management

Thanks very much, Louis. Very helpful.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from James Rutledge of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

James Rutledge

Management

Thanks and good morning. Just firstly, just circling back to your earlier comment about backerboard being a drag on average price mix. I guess, you’re implying there that backerboard is growing faster than your overall volumes, I assume that’s market share shift given you’re also saying that new constructions growing faster than R&R.

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. New construction is growing faster than R&R. Backerboard, actually as it turned out for the year, it was ahead of exteriors most of the year and then I think it pulled pretty even with the good exteriors quarter in the fourth quarter. So what you used to see year-on-year is exteriors outgrow backer, so we’d get some price improvement because of the exteriors outgrowing backer. Last year, as it turned out, they grew almost the same, so you got no benefit of that mix difference, it basically stayed even. But, yes, Cemplank would be up in the south, not because of the percent of Cemplank, but because in a segment, but because the segment was bigger relative to the R&R segment. I had really covered - a big, you get a big pull-up from ColorPlus because you basically produced no more boarding, you put a lot of value add on with the paint and we didn’t get that last year, so that was another situation. Some of that is like I said, geography, but some of that meaning we didn’t grow as well in the North as we wanted to. If we did, we would have gotten that price improvement through mix, but some of it’s just even in the north, we’re not growing Color as a percentage of the total as well as we’d like, so that’s one of the areas Ryan and his guys are working on.

James Rutledge

Management

Okay. That’s great. Thanks. Where would your partnership be currently on backerboard?

Louis Gries

Management

Market share, is that what the question. Yeah, we’d be, I don’t know if we get that shown, I don’t know if we get that, he says, no. We’d be the biggest producer of backerboards in the US. So you have basically three types of backerboards, you have fiber cement, which we would have 99 point something, you have glass mesh boards, when you add them altogether, the glass mesh boards would have a higher market share than fiber cement still and we - still like last year, we would have taken some market share from fiber glass mesh boards and then you have some gypsum kind of knockoff boards that don’t have a lot of share. And then I guess you have DensShield with the glass mesh, which is a category that’s probably growing, because the patent came off. So, now several manufacturers have that technology, not just one. So the long story as we have a very good position, it’s by far the largest in the industry, but we also see fiber glass mesh cement boards are and should give up share in the future and we think we’re the natural taker of that share. So we think we’ll grow it more even though we’re currently the biggest.

James Rutledge

Management

And given that you’re saying good growth rate return after, I think, it was two years ago where you took the large price increase, do you have any plans for price increases, more modest price increases over the next 12 months in that product?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. 12 months, you’re probably getting into a window we’d look at again. So as far as this year, there may be a little tune-ups of pricing product lines, specific markets, but we wouldn’t take it across the market price increase. And I don’t think we’ll look at it until I’m talking exteriors here, I don’t think we look at it until maybe December, January for implementation and maybe February, March, but I’m not saying we take it. Okay. This is, as investors and managers in a company, sometimes you have, you aren’t 100% aligned on every little point and this is an area that management doesn’t feel the same anxiety about as some of our investors do. We think we need to price based on long-term penetration of our product. We’re not necessarily annual takers of price, okay, we like our margins, we like our market position, what we really want to do is grow. Now, a lot of times, obviously, you can take price and grow. That’s an ideal situation and we just felt like this year, we’d be giving up some to get the - give up some of the growth to get the price and we didn’t think that was a good tradeoff. So I’m not saying we’ll raise our price in 12 months, but I’m saying we’ll certainly look at it as we do every year and then consider whether we should take price or not and it will depend a lot on our growth rate and the competition within our exciting category.

James Rutledge

Management

Okay. That’s great. I just have one other question around SG&A, it looks like you’ve increased in the US, specifically within the March quarter by about $5 million, which is quite a ramp-up compared to the other quarters, do you think you’ve hit most of the kind of current run rate of investment in SG&A or do you think that’s further to go there?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. I think Matt might be closer to that than me.

A - Matt Marsh

Management

Yeah. We definitely stepped up the level of investment in the fourth quarter, most of that was in labor costs and most of that was in sales labor. We’ve got additional market and product programs that we started to ramp up in the second half of the year and I’d expect that to continue through at least the early part of fiscal ‘17. Most of the investment is going directly into commercial phasing programs and sales and marketing and product and segment oriented program and personnel that we believe all should drive growth in the future. So I think you saw a good size bump in the fourth quarter and you should expect that it will continue to grow a bit, it certainly won’t flatten out in at least in the first half of fiscal ‘17.

James Rutledge

Management

Okay. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Matthew McNee of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

Thanks, guys. Just a couple of follow-up questions, Louis just on Carole Park, you had said that it has an AUD8 million impact, so all things being equal, heading in to ‘17, you should get AUD8 million higher impact there?

Louis Gries

Management

I think that’s a fair assumption. That would be my assumption, but I haven’t specifically talked to the Australian business about that, but I’m sure that’s our assumption as well.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

And that’s before obviously, you’ve got the actual benefit of the - having the plant as well?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. We’ll start getting that benefit this year. I don’t think that benefit will kick in for the full year. So, we’ll start seeing lower unit costs and lower freight costs as we bring more products up to the new line. But like you said, on a comp benefit, if we spend AUD8 million on a startup and we don’t have a startup this year, we should start with that AUD8 million. So you and I see this the same way.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

Yeah. And just on the Windows loss, is it 10 mil thereabouts or is it closer to the 10 and 5 for the full year?

Louis Gries

Management

Is it closer to 10 and 5, it’s a game show or?

Matthew McNee

Analyst

Well, just trying to get a bit more info on that, making sure, I think you said it was too high.

Louis Gries

Management

That’s not a bad guess, so it’s between those numbers and I think we’ll have it again this year. So you can see if, between those numbers that we have at this year, then it’s becoming not such an issue for US business results.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

Sorry, just to clarify, so it will be similar loss this year and ‘17, maybe half in ‘18, because I thought you said before that, I thought you’d be close to breakeven in ‘18, positive in ‘19 and the loss may be half this year.

Louis Gries

Management

I think you’re trying to confuse me about all these years. So ‘16, we just figured and you win the prize, because you picked two points that we’re in between and then my guess is, we’re going to have our EBIT loss and run the business the way we want to, so we’re going to do all the market work we want and have our EBIT loss. And then the following year, I think you’re either getting very close to breakeven or you’re at breakeven by the end of the year. And just to give you an idea of what goes with that, it’s kind of doubling up of units, okay. So we get back to number of units and we’re looking to double that this year, and we’re looking to double again. So, I think it’s a good plan, but believe me, we’re learning that, we’re learning that part of the market, we wouldn’t be good at it yet, we’re good at a few things and we have to build the capability, but again, you guys know how Hardie thinks about this stuff, if we’re going to have another big category like backerboards or exterior in the US, we want it to be a category that’s going to generate good profitability. So you can’t go buy a $500 million revenue business and gift that. They just don’t exist in the US market, so we’re going to try and grow on. In order to grow on, you basically start with zero capability. We’ve bought a parts manufacturer and we bought a windows assembler, both very small and we’re now in to the early stages of what we were like US in early 90s when we were trying to figure out how to make in market fiber cement in US market and you go up the capability curve and we’re growing up that capability curve in Windows. It still looks like a good opportunity to us, our assumptions entering launching the initiatives are mainly being proved out. We don’t have any that are like showstoppers though, we didn’t think about that, something you guys know that we were in fiber cement pipes for a while in the US, that’s a good example, we hit a showstopper couple of years into that initiative and we saw, we should have known that a couple of years ago, but we didn’t. We’re not quite a couple of years in the windows, but most of our assumptions have proven out. Now, there is no guarantee that we’re going to be a big window producer. There is no guarantee that we’re going to be successful with the initiative, but we’re doing a good job kind of exploring how you build a business model around fiber glass windows and generate returns that are well above our whacks, our investors would be happy with it and the scale is there in the end. So -

Matthew McNee

Analyst

And you’re more confident than you were 12 months ago?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. I mean, just because of time. In other words, like I said a lot happens in that first year and nothing really bad happened, we didn’t stumble on anything that said, hey, we had this thing wrong, we can’t do it that way. So, so far, so good.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

And one final question from me, Louis. Last year, in the US, you talked about manufacturing efficiency program and talked about getting about 10% more products, same number of planned, putting what happened in the fourth quarter in that one plant, can you give us a bit of an update on how progressed you are through that 10% target, are you half way there, are you pretty much seeing all the benefits?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. I mean, when you see Ryan, I think you’re going to see Ryan in Melbourne, I’ll be with him. But he’ll tell you, he’s probably almost all the way through the 10% and now he’s looking for more. So, we’re, Matt kind of covered it, we’re on a good trend line in manufacturing. We definitely figured some things out that if kind of unlocked some of the potential of our the approach we take to high throughput, low cost fiber cement manufacturing and of course the value add piece with Color and a few other things now.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

So again, putting aside all the uncontrollables on pulp prices and cement, like for like, would you expect to get lower manufacturing costs in ‘17 than ‘16 just because of that manufacturing improvement?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. If everything was normalized, we’d probably get a AUD4 million startup. So if all your input costs are normalized, you’ve got a AUD4 million, though, I think we have AUD4 million worth of improvements, yeah, I would say, we do. Now, you may not see it, depending on product mix and plant sourcing and all the rest of it, but we’ll definitely have that as - well, I shouldn’t say definitely, I can’t guarantee it, but that would certainly be our expectation.

Matthew McNee

Analyst

Okay. No worries. Thanks

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Kathryn Alexander of Citi. Please go ahead

Kathryn Alexander

Analyst

Hi, guys. Just a couple of questions for you. Firstly, on primary demand growth, I know in the past, you’ve articulated a short term target as 5% to 7%. I’m just wondering, can you confirm, is this still the case, and approximately how long do you think it is before you can really strictly end up in this range?

Louis Gries

Management

Yeah. Our target is 6% to 8% and I think we’d be able to tell you if we’re in that range in November.

Kathryn Alexander

Analyst

Okay, great. And just a last one, probably one for you Matt, can you just provide some CapEx guidance for ‘17?

Matt Marsh

Management

Yeah. I think for the next couple of years, not just fiscal ‘17, but probably for ‘18 as well, we’ll primarily be focused on maintenance CapEx. We’ve obviously got the planned city line that we’re commissioning this quarter. We’ve got a [indiscernible] in line that we’ve just about finished construction on and we’ll commission that. So we’ve got the capacity in the network in the US. So we don’t see over the next couple of years, the need for brownfield, greenfield per se, obviously that’s all subject to market demand and market penetration. We’ll have the capacity expansion in the Philippines, which we’ve talked about with the Carole Park facility in Australia. We feel like we’ve got adequate capacity taken care of, for Australia in the Australian market. So I think you should think about fiscal ‘17 primarily being a maintenance CapEx type year, with levels that look similar to fiscal ‘16 levels, again kind of plus or minus. So if we’re around that AUD70 million, AUD75 million mark, you put a small range around that, that’s probably the level that you should expect for fiscal ‘17.

Kathryn Alexander

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now hand back to Mr. Gries for closing remarks.

Louis Gries

Management

All right. Thank you. I appreciate everyone joining our results call. Appreciate. Bye.