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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q1 fiscal year results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today Friday, the August 15, 2014. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today Mr. Louis Gries. Please go ahead, Mr. Gries.
LG
Louis Gries
Management
All right, thank you. Hi everybody, this is Louis Gries, thanks for joining the call today. Matt Marsh and I, we are in Dublin and we will walk through the results like we do usually and that’s I will cover the operations overview, Matt will cover the financials and then we will come back for the question and answers. When we get to the questions, investors and analysts first and then if there are any media questions, we will take those at the end. The people in Sydney will be driving the presentation, so we will be just calling out our slide number, so Slide 1 is just the cover page. Slide 2 is the disclaimer. Slide 3 is the rest of the disclaimer. Slide 4 is just the agenda and like I said same format we always go with. Slide 5 is another cover page. So Slide 6 is the first slide we talk to. So you can see our adjusted net operating profit was down 4% despite having a better market to operate in, and despite difference in EBITs being up some. So we will cover that. Matt will cover the differences that were driven by corporate and obviously I will talk through the business units at a high level. We have some sub-bullet points scenario to go into some detail but basically all the businesses are running in better markets. The US is on skittish we anticipate it would be but it is a better market than last year. And I think our financial performance doesn’t quite reflect as well as it could have in a better market. So we will go through that in some detail. If we go to Slide 7, the US, Europe fiber cement results. As you see our sales volumes is actually…
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
Thanks, Louis. So Slide 17 on our group results highlights. Lou has already talked about a lot of what earnings have been driven by sales volumes and prices up in the business units, albeit a little bit more modest than we thought to be. The higher production costs, we have talked about in little bit more detail on input costs especially and hen some of the plant efficiencies and Fontana starting up some of the other lines and the higher organization spend, you will see as we go through some of the segment results. Stock compensation is up largely because of share price appreciation year over year but there is also increase in some of the discretionary spend and the labor costs, as we have added some of the capability that Lou mentioned. We continue on the capital expenditures for the three big projects. So we’re continuing to invest there. You’ll see on cash flow decreased from trading activities from EBIT 38 to the first three months of the year to EBIT 79 in the same three months in the prior year and I’ll go through that. During the quarter, we repurchased and cancelled about 715,000 shares of our stock as part of the share buyback for a total of about $9.8 million Australian and $9.1 million U.S. at a A$13.69 share price on average and ordinary dividend of $0.32 and the special of $0.20 for a total of $230 million U.S. was paid out on August 8 and we’ll talk about that little bit more as well. So we go to page 18 kind of the group results. Net sales up 12 and as we’ve already talked about because of volume and price. Gross profit down about 30 basis points at a group level, a combination of the higher…
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We’ll now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the of Jason Steed from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jason Steed – JP Morgan: Hi. Good morning, Matt. Just a matter of thought, just two questions. Just interested in know your comments on LP and I guess the progress that made against but not against yourself most clearly but like their own PDG into the market. Remember around this time last year when you’re in the U.S. when you made a comment that largely the LP threat had been dealt with. I’ll be interested in what’s that dealing which is dealing to that path in your mind and how you deal with the threat this time around? And the second question is just on the interiors. I mean before back in interiors you have flat, but do you just see yourself now able to arrest that and run and keep interiors flat or is it going just to give it holding on for as long as you can?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
Okay, thanks. First on LP, this again described what’s happening in the market. So early days and already obviously we saw we positioned ourselves against wood. It’s been our assets for durability and maintenance. A lot of those manufacturers went out of business. Most of them get out of left siding as we start to take majority in positioning left siding. Again in around 2000 we started pointing toward vinyl, which is really more market development pretty big up sale vinyl, so as much two times the cost of vinyl where wood be about 20% premium. Vinyl was a big share player at the time, again way up to 44%. Okay? So we have been successful in maybe causing or at least accelerating the decline in vinyl and that’s continuing. So I think the reality is right now hard sidings. So if you think of hard siding be in fiber cement and now LP wood, there chip order always be whatever you want to call it siding, were both benefiting from the vinyl decline. We benefit in different ways. So they have vinyl products, which they have a good position on mainly against plywood and our vinyl products are in the market but they don’t deliver either the share value or tongue and groove edge that you can get on a wood product. So LP or LP-like technology has always been able to do things with a panel that the fiber cement can’t. And then we have the advantage on the planks and then with our work against linen, we start creating markets of trim and houses that used to be vinyl then have a trim on it so when you put fiber cement on, you need some trim boards and Hardie’s trim board portfolio has lacked our siding portfolio.…
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
I think the first kind of get up point is the decline in vinyl seems to be pretty consistent. So when you think about 35, 90 which is the brand for our growth strategy, most people know that was 35 market share for fiber cement and 90% category share for Hardie, but probably better way thinking about it is volume declines and I think the hard siding market share goes up maybe it goes-- I don’t know where it goes to, say 45-50. I mean obviously we’ve done some modelling, but I’m not going to put a stack in the ground and what I think wood plus linen goes through and many question is how much of the hard siding category we get and how much is wood yet? And what I said the wood value proposition I think is well on your stead and there is a certain segment of buyers that would be very attracted to the lower cost and not so attracted and not so much influenced by the yearly proposition for the homeowner, but it’s all worked, it has begun. But I change my volume expectations for the Hardie business over the next three to five years which I think you should question. I think mostly we shot for kind of four PDG in the market like this at 6% and we need some 8s and 9s to grow at the rate we want to grow at. So I think that’s still obtainable but clearly with LP also trying to grow in the same stage at the same time, it’s definitely more fight than it would have if LP wasn’t there.
Jason Steed – JP Morgan: That’s clear.
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
Question on interiors. I think we might have talked about interiors last September. Our product again sort of cement boards has developed into really a premium-price product. So if you go back in time, the cost of using Hardie for a tile setter would be very close to the cost of using a glass mesh cement board. Now over time the retail outlets have realized their custom boards or even more than the other boards. So we are growing share very quickly and even when there is start taking higher margins on our board we continue to take share. So our price premium on our board, it differs around the U.S. For what used to be maybe a $0.50 to $1.50 premium, it can now be more like $2.50 to $4.00 premium. Now that’s still not a lot relative to the cost of doing a job for a tile setter, but I think the premium has driven most products conscious buyers back down to the fiber glass mesh in that board. Now I don’t think that’s the biggest part of the problem that we face currently. I think the bigger part of problem is like the retailers when we found out retail growth market share with Hardie at the same time at that price, we kind of learn that we’re in the point of yes curve where we could grow market share at the same time we could reduce SG&A resources in the segment. And I think what’s happened is we’ve gone too far and maybe the retail price has gone too far we’ll have to do those studies and talk to our customers about that, but I think for us what we had on total control is I think we get a resource allocation between interior and exterior, a…
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Simon Thackray from Citigroup. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Simon Thackray – Citigroup: Thanks very much, Matt and Louis. Just following on from Adjusted net, just the expectation that you commented before whether that you feel $8 million would be the EBIT you had. Had it not been for if you had better plan performance, etc. in that quarter, can you just clarify is that $8 million on EBIT with the volume that was you experienced or is that against your planned volume for that quarter?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
That would have been and Simon, basically I’m not happy with the result. I mean it’s not a terrible result, but it’s not as good as we would have normally done with the same volume. So I think if we would have handled things better on the manufacturing side and anticipated the volume a little bit differently, we’ve not gotten the volume but anticipated it will be definitely. I think it’s very easy to see where it may be on the bottom line and I wouldn’t be upset with the result to the same degree I have announced. In fact I wouldn’t be upset with at all because I think the kind of the financials we want to deliver this year against the investment and growth that we want to make, you got to come out of the front half of the year in a pretty good shape or else you’re going to restrict somewhat what you’re going to want to do in the second half of the year and I think that’s where we’re at. We’re not turning back, but we are delaying some standing now that if we had the additional money on EBIT line this quarter and can see it heading again next quarter, we thought we wouldn’t be delaying some of that standing.
Simon Thackray – Citigroup: Okay. Did you quantify the delay or did not quantify the delay in terms of how much you’re pulling back, falling back?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
No. We didn’t. But I mean--
Simon Thackray – Citigroup: Is it material number or is it more or less-- ?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
I do know we spent a lot of money on marketing issues and we spend a lot of money right now on capacity additions. So we’re thinking now 15-18 and now it’s looking to me like maybe 6 to 8. So yeah there is a different amount of money we would kind of spend and take off the bottom line under those two scenarios. And you say it’s material, I guess not a material from a company standpoint, but from how we look at our EBIT line, yeah it makes a difference.
Simon Thackray – Citigroup: Sure. And then just going back a step about the plants inefficiency in Australia, there was a comment on that Australia not performing as well. I think for mainly the last there is many quarters at the end of the day, I was trying a bit on the improvement on the net and margins but tracking back towards what you considered as good operating performance, could you just give us a bit more than you talked about, what that means driving – is it a one off event in the quarter or is it something fundamental that we should be looking at?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I think the reality is that got in the same little situation in Australia that we have here, and that’s with their capacity in addition in Carole Park, a lot of our focus has been on that, a lot of resources get sucked in, they just didn’t run as good this quarter it would normally run. But in their situation, in the US, it’s kind of been going on about five months. In Australia it’s shorter now, so I would expect a bounce back from both organizations but I actually consider it an easier bounce back for Australia, because they only had the one capacity project right now, we are still in the middle of starting up two machines, going to start another one in December, January, another one maybe February, March. So our US organization has just got a lot on its plate right now and obviously we missed some things that we would normally get right and it’s not been dramatic and – we can get increased machine delays, increased spending on maintenance, it’s that stuff that adds up in the manufacturing plant, it’s not like we have a fundamental problem with running a plant, a lot of plants, they just don't run at the same level efficiency and unit costs that we are used to, at least they have most of them – there is three of them that are just doing fine and then there is five that are struggling to some degree and like I said the plants scaling with the new capacity are struggling to much greater degree than the ones that aren’t.
Simon Thackray – Citigroup: Right, so with that in mind, I was just trying to put some context around the revised guidance or the guidance that’s been provided, it just hits below our consensus, is that – just trying to understand – what are your expectations to hit that number, is it you’re expecting a turnaround in the efficiency of the plants or are you expecting that slight turnaround and it gets linked to that question, which might be helpful for many would be, what are you seeing in the current quarter in terms of any improvements to catch up on what was delivered – what has been normally the strong Q1, what’s the current kind of status and how are things tracking now?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Let’s go what’s in our forecast, I am not sure what’s in the external forecast. But in our forecast would be housing starts kind of deliver type of volume growth we’ve seen so far this year. So we are not expecting a much better housing opportunity because the marketplace catch up the last six months of the year and there is still some forecasters out there indicating that all of a sudden bunch of houses are going to get built and you’re still going to come out fairly close to what the original forecasted, we’re just not believing that, so that’s not in our forecast. I guess if it did happen, it would happen such a late period in the year that it may not even show up in our demand very much this year anyway. So we are not expecting housing market to spike or start really accelerating. The other thing is I think the other disconnect you have between the external financial forecaster and ours is we have all the corporate stuff in there, some stuff that you guys know about which is the higher debt and some stuff you don't know about the effect, which is the interest rate swaps and stuff like that. So – but I think the higher debt and potentially tax rate are two things that are different between the two forecasts. Now as far as what else is in our number that gets us to that 205 to 235, which is a pretty wide range which is normal for first quarter. It’s not a quick turnaround on anything – I need to keep repeating, I don’t like the way the plans around this quarter. But it’s a quarter and like I said it’s a little more than a quarter in the US.…
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I have to get questions, so going into winter, we’d have to restrict production in order to our inventory down. We always build in the winter and what we will do is we will delay start-ups rather than not run our current machines in the winter. So I don’t think in fact, so when I say July start-ups you might be talking 45 days like that, you are not talking about six or eight months of delay start-ups. But that’s the way you would do that. Now one thing you probably – you or one of your guys would have picked up on is some of our higher costs for us is still in inventory, so you will see that continue to come through for about 45 day period as well.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Liam Farlow from Macquarie.
Liam Farlow – Macquarie: I guess just following on from the some of the points Simon raised, I just like to touch on – I guess what are your current learnings in terms of CapEx expenditure and how projects are tracking to expected – with some of the plant expansions? And I guess also just how would you tackle start-ups recently compared to what you have been doing so far in terms of strong return on that performance?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
As far as current learnings on the CapEx, I think the CapEx, the construction is part of the CapEx, it hasn’t been an issue for us. We didn’t built anything for four, five years, so we are probably a little bit rush in a few years but it doesn’t make much of it, it didn’t make much of a difference in the cost of the capacity. The bigger issue was the start-up where we actually had one, and then that’s 15 months ago, and we started out Fontana one, two, three costs together now. What do we need to do different? I guess one of the things I need to point out just so everyone knows is this is a different size business than it was when we had the capacity in the past. So looking at so far Plant City, Cleburne, Fontana, you’re talking about starting up five machines in about 15 months, we have never done that. So it is necessary, we know how to do it, we did never had to have, that may evolve. So I think the number one kind of strategy in a start-up is to fire all up from ongoing operations, and I think that’s going to become even more critical as we get multiple start-ups going on at the same time. So you got to get Waxahachie, for an example, when you are starting up line one, which was the idle line, you got to make sure the team run in line 2, doesn’t lose efficiency because they are running at design, start-up it has the ramp up curves, so 30 days into a start-up you are only 30% up to your design, so if that’s through kind of hits the problem, it’s only in the 30% design equation, so it doesn’t…
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of James Rutledge from Morgan Stanley.
James Rutledge – Morgan Stanley: Just first wondering what the tax rate assumed for within the guidance. And secondly, just on the plant inefficiencies of $8 million, just this has been focused on quite a bit but just wondering how that $8 million kind of merged into the next quarter, does that $8 million get fixed over the next two to three months or does it take kind of the rest of the financial year to fix that up and how does that apply into your second quarter margin?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Okay, I will take my – that question first and then I will hand over to Matt for tax. The $8 million not to kind of crystallize or quantify the problem, actually business our size which isn’t that big I understand, but a business of our size you have a certain amount of variance in the kind of the numbers you deliver, and all I am saying is you look at the last quarter and say, hey, if we would have done this, this, better, you’d have another $8 million on your bottom line and we wouldn’t be having this discussion, but the reality is we didn’t do it better. Now just like I said that with manufacturing we had the market forecast in the manufacturing inefficiencies and the commodity cost forecast kind of all go against us. So in preferring that’s on our band, $8 million, less than 3 million a month, you get 3 million a month variance in our business but normally you got one month or seven in the next and the next would come in the middle. So kind of all disappears in a quarter, well this time it didn’t get disappeared in a quarter because they kind of roll off. So what do I think is going to happen in the quarters coming out, I think we’re going to have marginally better performance across the board and I think the kind of shocks that we are introducing in the system with some manufacturing issues, namely the Fontana start-up, we are not going to have the same size – we are not going to have the start-up shocks going forward. So they all have to be managed, it doesn’t – the fun of it is it happens but a lot of it is it happens because we have managed it as well we should have. So in the future if we don’t want to have it, we have to manage it better and I think the organization is ready to do that.
James Rutledge – Morgan Stanley: And as far as you flagged on the last call, that your second quarter margin would largely be better than your first quarter this year, which is quite unusual, is that what you can in the future expect this financial year?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I can say yes but I also have to – look at it. But I do believe second quarter will be better, it was better last year than the first quarter and why we changed that pattern, I am not sure but I feel the pattern is going to be the same thing this year, where we will get more out of the second quarter and then our winter quarters will be relatively better than winter quarters normally are against summer quarters, that’s kind of I think we will end up same shape we were in the last year.
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
On your ETR question, obviously a decision in the year, there is a lot of assumptions still particularly on where the earnings come from, so geographically where that mix is, as well as kind of the permanent adjustments versus the earnings. So what we have gotten there at the moment is what we showed on the ETR pages of 24.8, I think it’s reasonable that it will be in the mid 23s and 24s but our best look at it at the moment is 24.8 and that’s what we believe is reflective of the full year rate. But that will adjust as the estimate becomes actuals and we get a better visibility on where those earnings are coming from.
James Rutledge – Morgan Stanley: So as far as in the 285 had a 24% tax rate in the 235, at 23, is that kind of the way to think about that?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
Yeah, I mean, our assessment at this point the 24.8 I think will move around, so it’s hard for me to say give you a different number and otherwise we probably wouldn’t have booked the 24.8 but that’s our best look at it, I think we will get lot more visibility for the half year.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Peros from Credit Suisse.
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Okay, it sounds like that question might have been answered, have our next question.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Emily Behncke from Deutsche Bank.
Emily Behncke – Deutsche Bank: I just had a couple of questions. Firstly around what you are seeing regionally and if you are happy with the market share growth in certain parts of the country and I think you sort of talked in the past around the sort of 6% PDG, do you think that that’s achievable in fiscal ‘15 or do you think you could do a bit better than that?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Yeah, I do think 6 is achievable and I think we can probably do a little better than that. I think regionally the south was super strong last year and that settled down a little bit and the north has picked up a little bit. So we are kind of more in the pattern now where the growth rate in the north is a little bit higher than in the south, if that holds right through the year, I am not sure. We are not really disappointing in any market right now, the Midwest, obviously where the most of the competition against LP is. Our Midwest numbers are good, first quarter and look good coming into second quarter as well. So really on the market side, I think it’s more of a market opportunity we are continuing to kind of seek absent our trough offering and working hard on that, as far as our market programs around signing everything looks pretty good right now both north and south.
Emily Behncke – Deutsche Bank: Just you mentioned that you were expecting sort of 16 to 18% half in growth now that’s probably more 6 to 8, what – you said you are on target – from a market perspective?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I think we want to handle, we would on the external and they came in pretty high, last year they were expecting 7 and now they are seeing it’s more like 4 some. Then you hit that, I think our position in R&R continues to strengthen, so we are doing well, market share growth with our R&R program and like I said when they said the margin was up at 7, and just we are looking to, but we didn’t directly plan for that the same way we directly planned for housing starts, because we didn’t believe the 7 was as a believable as the 15. So being running housing starts what we did believe that 15 was believable on housing starts.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ward from Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Michael Ward – Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Obviously the tax rate on – this 7% is pretty good, you sort of outlined the reasons as to why, can you give us a sense – whether or not you think that’s right in line for the full year?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I think the tax you are approaching is what we did last year kind of built momentum as we went through the year, so our costs actually easier for that part of it, it’s easier in the first quarter than it would in the third and the fourth. So that 7 may sail down a little bit but it’d only sail down from a comp perspective not from an average price perspective.
Michael Ward – Commonwealth Bank of Australia: And then the other one I have is on the $8 million, my sense as to what actually attributable to head count, plant inefficiency and also I guess the cost issues that you have outlined, can you just sort of rank in order which ones – actually is the plant inefficiency that was the biggest contributor to that disappointment?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Yeah, we are a manufacturing company, so yeah plants are going to be a lot where a lot of our costs are, so when they move just by a small percentage it’s a big number when you miss by a bigger percentage in most other areas, that doesn’t compete, so yeah. Manufacturing is the biggest cap in our result this quarter.
Michael Ward – Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Maybe just a question for Matthew, stock comp is obviously – related to that, those unrealized losses and the interest rate swaps, can you just sort of give us a – the stock comp increase sort of annualized and continues through the rest of the year and then are you expecting sort of any of that unrealized losses or interest rate swap issues that we should be weighing on at this point?
MM
Matthew Marsh
Management
The stock comp forecast as you know can be difficult because of – you have to forecast where you think the share prices are going to do and then it depends on a combination of new grants exercise and new grants issue and the vested grants exercised, so I wouldn’t expect it to continue at the same rate, if for no other reason because of how much the share price rose last year and I think the comps will get a bit easier but that’s hard to speculate and it really depends on what the market does with the share price. On interest rate swaps, that’s another one that a year ago I think broadly most economists and probably lot of us over glass of wine would have said that interest rates are probably going to go up not down and we are taking a lot on that interest rate swaps because rates have moved down since we first did. I think it’s fair to think that rates are more likely to go up than down, to the extent that they go up, obviously then what we experienced this quarter for the swap we wouldn’t repeat to the extent that they stay where they are at or they continue to down, it will create kind of the short term pressure, we think given what our fundamental strategy is and the pricing that we take our swaps out at over the long term that would still be a good value for shareholders. And then on the FX losses, I don’t think that will repeat, I think that’s a – we had a unique circumstance this year in that we had dividends that had a record date in March and we re-valuate those right before the quarter and then whey they paid obviously we had to re-value them again and we don’t expect to obviously that will repeat, so some of it is the timing of that and to be frank some of what’s occurring in the FX losses this quarter is when we book the initial revaluation of those in the prior period we didn’t do it correctly, so we had to catch that up this quarter, that wasn’t a material issue for the prior quarter but nonetheless it created a little bit of additional headwinds or pressure for this quarter. So I do think that line item is unique to the quarter and that doesn’t – I wouldn’t expect that line item to repeat, the other two line items are bit tougher to forecast.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Peros from Credit Suisse.
Andrew Peros – Credit Suisse: Just trying to reconcile some of the comments you made earlier that market conditions with the US volume growth, you mentioned PDG with positive but not as positive that you would have expected, we know new housing was down, so that would imply R&R that quite conceivably, would that be a fair assumption?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Yeah, I think you have to show me how that equation would dissect, because like I said we don’t follow quarter to quarter as much as a fourth quarter rolling, and our general comment on that is going to be saying, we are doing better in our R&R than new construction but I don’t think this was an outlier in that, I think it would have been in line with what’s happening in the last three quarters.
Andrew Peros – Credit Suisse: And just to follow up on your comments around growth CapEx, I guess I would interpret some of those comments, I think in the previous quarter you guided to about $200 million of growth CapEx each year for the next three years, I am wondering how – if that might change considering that you are having – a slower market and the impact that this expansion is having on margins, I think also included in that is that an assumption around some greenfield capacity, should we assume that continues to go ahead or should we assume that that’s maybe priced [ph] for a later date?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
You should assume it goes ahead had we booked the – and trying to figure out [indiscernible] So you will start to see some of that greenfield mainly in the form of land show up in our CapEx, but the market – I don’t know, I mean, I guess like a lot of people, I am having trouble figuring out the market – we are in a recovery market and we are not yet at the level of housing that used to be recession type level, so just like almost a different equation and we don’t in the past, but I don’t think we have been there long enough to say that our need for CapEx changes dramatically I think I mean I don’t know you guys probably remember better than me but I think the housing has been running softer than expected for even nine months now and I don’t think that, that does allow you to do some deferrals on start-ups but I really don’t think it allows you to defer building capacity just because it takes a couple years to build capacity, so you can’t look at a soft period that’s nearly less than a year and say hey we don’t need that two years from now but you can be sure that our guys that work on capacity plant are now putting in new levels in their equations and if we can slow some capacity down, and not put supply at risk that’s what we will do but at this point we are not there.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of David Leech from UBS.
David Leech – UBS: My question is very simple, it’s actually guidance, the bottom at the guidance is 205, and historically how at this time better in the June and September quarters, as we head into the back half of the year, I am just wondering how confident you are about the bottom end of that range?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I mean we think it’s the bottom, so we are obviously pretty confident. I know what you are saying though, the 50 times 4 doesn’t even get you at the full year, and we just consider that a replicate problem as much as a bad fourth quarter problem. I covered this, some things in that first quarter that dampened the first quarter result aren’t going to repeat in the next three quarters.
David Leech – UBS: Would you care to put a dollar number on what you would say won’t repeat in the first quarter the 8 million but if you add up all the things that you even easily eliminated in the first quarter results?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I think the whole idea is number one, it’s a 30 million range, so we are not trying to get it to 205. But we think 205 at this stage, so as far as giving you kind of [indiscernible] I don’t think we go to that degree but to answer to your initial question we think that 205 is safe.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Andrew Johnston from CLSA.
Andrew Johnston – CLSA: Just a couple of questions around a few things there, you mentioned – Lou can tell me if I am wrong, you mentioned inefficiencies in the business that weren’t related to start-up.
LG
Louis Gries
Management
We just had a couple of them, those would probably be the more normal things that the start-ups kind of create problem, those things – if they were on top of start-ups we definitely wouldn’t talking about them but I mean it’s a bit disappointing and the performance of some of the plants that don’t even have start-ups going on.
Andrew Johnston – CLSA: You previously talked about – Lou shared the flexible membranes, is that still an issue and is that category still or how do you say that going forward, is that out of the reason you are losing share?
LG
Louis Gries
Management
I mean there are two catch in the share, so share for cement board is going under tile as I would say slow decline as both just some technology takes a greater share on the wall and let’s turn – that is there is a fiber glass, mash, gypsum technology that used to be patented and one company had it, and the other are now patents expired. The other gypsum companies are launching their products and their channel – they have a channel advantage through the gypsum channel, so I think you are finding more gypsum reappearing on the wall, now it’s in a different form, it used to be paper gypsum and now it’s now fiber glass mash gypsum, so that has some impact on the total market share, and cements forward, and that doesn’t direct – that doesn’t affect us as directly as the other cement board manufacturers because we never – take a gypsum channel, in fact, we are very, very small players in the gypsum channel. Now the other one that mesh in the membranes, which they are a little bit separate but they are kind of talked about the same. That’s more of a floor product, are some of the membrane products are up in the walls but the one that goes after our space is the floor product. I would say that is continuing to grow at a pretty slow rate. So that’s not the problem, we are talking about, we are actually talking about our share in the categories, so now we are in the cement board category, I was sharing the category has declined recently and I am not talking about large decline but like I said we are down 3% in an outmarket in the quarter so again it’s a short…
LG
Louis Gries
Management
So coming into the way we have it internally is coming into the recovery market, internally we established 6% as the floor and like I said earlier, you need to add some 9s to get where we want to go. So you are right, last year we were right at around 9 and I am not saying we are not going to be around 9 this year, so I shouldn’t have misled you at that comment. But six is a floor, I am seeing the results, I don’t think one piece of information we need for that calculation as in yet. But my guess is it’s going to be quarter to trend – if you look at just that one quarter which we don’t look at four quarters, but if you look at one quarter, you would say, hey it looks more like 6 to 9. But I don’t mean to be forecasting that we are not going to do 9 because I am pretty with 9.
OP
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Gries,
LG
Louis Gries
Management
Yeah, no, that’s fine. Appreciate everyone’s question. Appreciate everyone joining the call and look forward to seeing those that are going to join us in the US tour in September. Thank you very much. Bye.