Roger Thompson
Analyst · Jefferies
Thanks, Dick and thank you everyone for joining us. The first quarter’s results can be characterized by three points: first, near-term investment performance improved across a number of key areas and the long-term results continue to be strong; second, despite the continued elevation in net outflows, we finished the quarter with 9% higher assets under management as markets rebounded to the lows we saw in December; and third, the financial results are in line with our budgets, but as expected, lower both year-on-year and quarter-over-quarter given lower asset levels exiting the volatile fourth quarter. Investment performance as of 31 March was strong with 69% of firm-wide assets beating their respective benchmarks over the 3-year time period, improving on the prior quarter. Total company net outflows were disappointing. Looking ahead, we still anticipate outflows in areas of underperformance and some notable outflows from changes recently announced, in particular, the impact in the emerging markets team that will be departing, which I will go to in a little bit more detail in a few minutes. That said we remain optimistic about future prospects across many areas of the business given our global distribution footprint, good investment performance and the breadth of our product offerings. Adjusted EPS of $0.56 reflects the impact of fewer days compared to the fourth quarter and lower performance fees. Finally, we returned $101 million of cash to shareholders during the quarter via dividends and share repurchases. Moving to investment performance which is on Slide 3, overall, investment performance relative to benchmark is strong with all time periods showing improvement compared to the fourth quarter. We saw continued strength in the performance of our equity and multi-asset capabilities across the 1, 3 and 5-year time periods and short-term improvements in our fixed income and alternative capabilities. INTECH’s performance remains challenging. However, year-to-date performance albeit in a very short time period, has been encouraging. This quarter, we have also included the percent of mutual fund AUM at the top two Morningstar quartiles, which was previously included in the appendix. As you can see in the table on the right hand side of the slide, performance against peers is very strong with 78%, 72% and 86% of our equity mutual fund AUM, which are our largest capability, in the top two quartiles on over a 1, 3 and 5-year basis. Now, turning to total company flows, for the quarter, net outflows was $7.4 billion compared to $8.4 billion last quarter. While the quarterly result is disappointing, we did see improvements compared to the fourth quarter across a number of areas. The better results was generated primarily by lower redemptions in equity and alternatives as market sentiment improved in the first quarter along with ongoing market share gains in our multi-asset capability. It’s important to note that the first quarter result includes $1.9 billion of outflows related to management decisions and other onetime events, including the closure of the Australian equity business and certain cash management accounts, the retirement of Bill Gross and the announced departure of the global emerging markets team. Moving to Slide 5 which shows the breakdown of flows in the quarter by capability, equity net outflows for the first quarter were reduced to $2.9 billion compared to $4.1 billion in the prior quarter as a result of lower redemptions in our U.S. intermediary channel. The favorable comparison versus last quarter was driven most significantly by nearly a $1 billion improvement in the Global Equity Income fund, which posted net inflows during the quarter and much improved redemptions in the international equity U.S. mutual funds, which while still negative in outflow terms, were significantly better. Flows into fixed income were negative in the quarter $2.8 billion. This resulted primarily from outflows in our U.S. intermediary business. Fixed income outflows included $1.3 billion of redemptions from our flexible bond fund in the intermediary channel in addition to redemption related to the retirement of Bill Gross I previously mentioned, which resulted in roughly approximately $700 million in redemption. INTECH outflows were $1 billion, which is flat to the prior quarter. Multi-asset flows continued to be driven by strong flows of the balanced strategy. The total inflows for the capability in the first quarter $700 million, an improvement over the prior quarter. The balanced strategy continues to be a great example of a cross-selling strategy across all regions of the globe. Alternative net flows were negative $1.4 billion driven by outflows in the UK Absolute Return fund and the property fund. Finally, I wanted to say a few words about the recent announcement concerning the departure of the individuals overseeing our global emerging markets strategy. At the end of the quarter, that strategy had roughly $5.1 billion in assets under management. And our current expectation is that we will see the majority of those assets to be at high risk of redemption in the second and third quarters. So far in the second quarter, we’ve received notification of redemptions of $2 billion for the strategy. We remain fully committed to the emerging market asset class and are actively pursuing various options, including recruiting new talent to our investment team. Slide 6 is our standard presentation of the U.S. GAAP statement of income. Now, turning to Slide 7 for a look at a summary of financial results, first quarter results compared unfavorably versus last quarter and the same period a year ago as we expected given the lower AUM levels the firm had entering 2019. Additionally, we also see the impact of lower performance fees and seasonally higher compensation expenses. That said, the market returns experienced in the first quarter will benefit revenue and cash flow generation for future quarters. Average AUM in the first quarter increased 1% over the fourth quarter driven primarily due to the market rebound beginning in January. Total adjusted revenues for the quarter decreased 6% compared to the fourth quarter due to 2 fewer calendar days in the quarter and lower performance fees. Adjusted operating income in the first quarter of $143 million was down 13% over the prior quarter, primarily as a result of the lower revenue, seasonally higher compensation expenses seen in the first quarter and the impact from mark-to-market on long-term incentive compensation. First quarter adjusted operating margin was 34.4% compared to 37.3% in the prior quarter and 40.1% a year ago. Finishing up on the financial results, adjusted diluted EPS was $0.56 in the first quarter compared to $0.59 the prior quarter and $0.71 a year ago. On Slide 8, we have outlined the revenue drivers in the quarter. Performance fees and fewer calendar days were the biggest drivers of the quarterly change in adjusted total revenue. Management fees decreased 2% from the fourth quarter. Net management fee margin for the first quarter was 42.9 basis points, which is down 0.5 basis point compared to the fourth quarter driven by mix shift in the business primarily from outflows in higher-fee equity product. As we did in the first quarter last year, we provided the net management fee rates by capability in the appendix. We’ll disclose this metric on an annual basis going forward and hope that you find it useful. Compared to the prior quarter, performance fees were lower primarily from segregated mandates partially offset by better fees on our U.S. mutual funds. Despite positive returns year-to-date the UK Absolute Return fund didn’t return performance fees during the first quarter as the investment performance remains modestly behind its high watermark. Regarding mutual fund performance fees, the first quarter improved to a negative $9 million from negative $12 million in the prior quarter as weak performance in the first quarter of 2016 rolled off and was replaced by much better performance in most cases. If we are successfully continuing to add alpha in the second quarter, this will further improve performance fees going forward. Moving to operating expenses on Slide 9, adjusted operating expenses in the first quarter were $274 million. Adjusted employee compensation, which includes fixed and variable staff costs, was down 7% compared to the prior quarter. Fixed staff costs are up slightly as expected due to annual pay raises and seasonality of payroll taxes resetting and 401(k) matches. Variable compensation costs were lower than the prior quarter due primarily to the lower profits as well as reflecting the final adjustments to the 2018 bonus pool that placed during the first quarter. Adjusted LTI was up 50% to the prior quarter primarily due to $15 million of mark-to-market adjustments as a result of the market change. In the appendix, we provided further detail on the expected future amortization of existing grants. The first quarter adjusted comp to revenue ratio was 45.4%. This revenue is higher than the guidance we previously provided due to lower revenues, seasonal compensation expenses and the mark-to-market on adjusted LTI. Importantly, for the full year, we still anticipate a comp ratio in the low 40s. Turning to adjusted non-comp operating expenses, collectively, there was a decrease of 9% quarter-over-quarter. The main drivers of the decrease were lower marketing expenses due to the seasonally higher spend in the fourth quarter and lower G&A costs. Compared to the same period a year ago, non-comp expense was down slightly when adjusting for $12 million legal outcome during the first quarter of 2018. Reflecting on the strategic priorities we laid out last quarter, we continue to focus on simplicity and operating efficiency and some of the business decisions that were made during the first quarter were done with this in mind. In addition to those, we expect to deliver further efficiencies in the future. We are maintaining the guidance on 2019 non-comp expenses that we provided last quarter, which is that excluding the $12 million legal outcome in ‘18, we would expect to see non-comp expenses flat year-over-year. Finally, our recurring effective tax rate for the first quarter was 22.8%, which is just below our prior guidance. For the full year, the firm’s effective tax rate is still expected to be 23% to 25%. Lastly, Slide 10 is a look at our capital management. As we said previously, we remain committed to returning excess cash to our shareholders. And on this slide, you can see those results over the last 8 quarters. During the first quarter, we paid approximately $70 million in dividends to shareholders and today declared a $0.36 per share dividend to be paid on the 29th of May to shareholders of record as of May 13. During the first quarter, we also purchased 1.3 million shares of our stock for $31 million. It’s important to remember that this activity only reflects 1 month of execution. In the first quarter ever year, we purchase shares on market to grant employees shares of company stock as compensation. And therefore we do not execute our accretive buybacks until this program is completed. Going forward, we anticipate $50 million to $60 million of share repurchases per quarter, depending on share price levels as part of the $200 million authorized share repurchase. With that said, I would now like to turn it back over to Dick for some final thoughts before we open it up to Q&A.