Mark D. Powers
Analyst · Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, again, for taking the time to join us today. This morning, we reported first quarter operating income of $41 million, a decrease of $18 million compared to the first quarter of 2013. Severe weather in the Northeast reduced first quarter revenues by approximately $50 million. In addition to the roughly 1,800 flights canceled during winter storm Hercules in January, subsequent winter storms caused a significant number of additional flight cancellations with respect to revenue. First quarter PRASM increased approximately 1% year-over-year. Year-over-year passenger unit revenue increased in January by 6%, increased in February by 7% and declined in March by 8%. As discussed on our January call, March year-over-year unit revenue comparisons were negatively impacted by the shift in the Easter and Passover holidays. This holiday shift impacted March year-over-year PRASM by approximately 7 to 8 points. In addition, we faced tough year-over-year comparisons in March this year due to an exceptionally strong March last year. Given our strong leader franchise in the North East to Florida and Caribbean, we have historically outperformed peers during the Easter Passover travel periods. For the same reason we saw a March PRASM headwind, we anticipate an April PRASM tailwind. With respect to networks and partnerships, we continue to be pleased with the revenue performance throughout our network. During first quarter, we acquired 12 slot pairs at Reagan Washington National Airport DCA. This is an airport we've worked tirelessly to gain access to for more than a decade. Reagan National is a high sale market with a demographic very well suited to our brand and business model. To help support our growth at Reagan National to up to 30 daily departures by year-end, we plan to eliminate transcon flying from Washington Dulles and to close several other routes. Airline partnerships continued to generate high margin revenue and expand the scope of our network. Partnership bookings generated approximately $120 million of revenues in 2013, of which, approximately $50 million was incremental. We expect incremental revenue from partnerships bookings to grow between 50% to 60% in 2014, driven by new partnerships, as well as a deepening of our existing partnerships. The impact of our partnership agreement on our new Boston-Detroit services is a great example of how effective our partnership portfolio has become. We currently carry, on average, 30 customers connecting with our airline partners today, between Boston and Detroit. We expect this figure to grow significantly by year-end. With respect to ancillary revenue, total ancillary revenues in the first quarter increased by roughly 9% year-over-year to $175 million. Although we voluntarily waived more customer change fees during the first quarter due to winter weather, resulting in lower change fee revenue, we continue to see growth in high-margin passenger-driven ancillary items. Our Even More offering remains on track to generate approximately $190 million this year. During the first quarter, we began adjusting Even More pricing by the time of departure and aircraft route to optimize revenue performance. We expect to continue tweaking Even More pricing as the year progresses. Our recently announced TrueBlue Mosaic status match from members of other carrier loyalty programs nicely illustrates our efforts to improve revenues by attracting those customers underserved by other carriers. In conjunction with this match, we also offer the Mosaic Challenge to allow any customer, not just those with status on another carrier, to fly their way to Mosaic at a 1/4 of the qualification criteria. As a result, we've signed up thousands of new Mosaic numbers, who on average generate 10x more revenue annually than a typical TrueBlue number without Mosaic status. We expect total ancillary revenues in 2014 to increase between 10% to 15% year-over-year, driven primarily by Even More and higher TrueBlue-related revenues. Turning to costs. Fuel, of course, remains our largest expense, comprising approximately 35% of the total. We continue to maintain a fuel hedge portfolio as a form of insurance. In the first quarter, we hedged approximately 16% of our fuel consumption. Additionally, fixed forward price agreements, or FFPs, covered approximately 8% of our first quarter fuel consumption. Including the impact of the fuel hedging, FFPs and taxes, our fuel price in the first quarter was $3.14, down 4.4% year-over-year. We have currently covered approximately 23% of our remaining full year 2014 fuel consumption using a combination of hedges and FFPs. More specific details regarding our hedge positions are set forth in the investor update which was filed with the SEC and is made available on the Investor Relations section of JetBlue's website prior to the start of today's call. Excluding fuel and profit-sharing, year-over-year first quarter unit cost increased by 6.3%. Winter weather reduced our first quarter planned year-over-year ASM growth by approximately 4 percentage points, pressuring unit costs. Excluding the impact of these flight cancellations, we estimate year-over-year, x fuel costs, would have increased to only 2.3%. In addition to first quarter cost pressures caused by capacity reductions, we also faced increased cost associated with the winter storms. To look more specifically at a few items on the income statement. One, salaries, wages and benefits were up approximately 50% on a unit cost basis, the largest driver of our year-over-year increase in non-fuel unit costs. Recall, we recently increased our pilot paydays rate and have hired additional pilots to help mitigate the impacts of FAR 117, which is the FAA's new regulation regarding pilot flight time and duty rules. In addition, we incurred higher-than-expected over time expense during the first quarter related, of course, to winter storms. We expect salary cost pressures to ease somewhat in the second half of the year as we adapt and optimize operations pursuant to FAR 117. For the full year, we expect salaries and wages and benefits, excluding profit sharing, to drive approximately 60% of our increase in non-fuel unit costs. Other operating expenses were up 11% year-over-year on a unit cost basis. This increase was higher than expected due to additional weather-related cost such as de-icing. Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with approximately $771 million in cash and short-term investments. In addition, JetBlue maintains $560 million of undrawn credit lines and 21 unencumbered aircraft. We expect to end the year with cash, as a percentage of trailing 12 months, of approximately 10%. As Dave mentioned, we plan to use a portion of the net proceeds from the pending sale of our wholly-owned subsidiary, LiveTV, to prepay debt. Please note that all guidance today assumes LiveTV remains a subsidiary of JetBlue throughout the year. We plan to update CapEx and cost guidance after the LiveTV transaction closes some time midyear. Both CapEx and cost guidance will have a positive financial impact on JetBlue. CapEx and fleet. JetBlue ended the quarter with 195 aircraft, including 100 A320s, 5 A321s and 60 E190s. For the full year 2014, we're forecasting aircraft CapEx of approximately $600 million. Effectively managing the invested capital base is a key driver core ROIC improvement. Our goal is to keep the level of invested capital relatively flat as we grow the airline. Turning to capacity. We plan to grow second quarter ASMs between 5.5% and 7.5% year-over-year. This increase is driven largely by our growth in the Caribbean and Latin America, which we expect to be up approximately 20% year-over-year. For the full year, capacity is expected to increase between 4% and 6% year-over-year, which is 1 point lower than prior guidance. Most of this decrease was driven by the reallocation of long-haul transcon flying from Washington Dulles to support new short-haul routes at Reagan National DCA. Turning to the revenue outlook. We currently expect April PRASM to be up between 9.5% and 10.5%. Recall, there is roughly a 7-point tailwind in April due to the Easter and Passover holiday shift into April this year. While we have limited visibility, May booking currently looks solid. We currently set May PRASM to be in the mid-single-digits year-over-year. Moving to the cost outlook. Excluding fuel and profit-sharing, CASM in the second quarter is expected to increase between 4.5% and 6.5% year-over-year. We expect salaries, wages and benefits; and other operating expenses, to be the 2 largest drivers in the second quarter year-over-year, x fuel CASM growth. Salary, wages and benefits, excluding profit sharing, are expected to compromise 40% of the second quarter increase. With respect to other operating expenses, we expect year-over-year comparisons to be negatively impacted by the $3 million gain we recorded during the second quarter of 2013, in connection with the sale of LiveTV's spectrum license. We also expect to incur additional expense related to Ka-band installs during the second quarter of this year. Finally, we expect sales and marketing expenses to be higher in the second quarter due to our new advertising and marketing campaign in this quarter. Excluding fuel and profit sharing, CASM in 2014 is expected to increase between 3.5% and 5.5% year-over-year. We expect approximately 1.5 points of this year-over-year unit cost increase to be largely denominator-driven. That is, our capacity reductions resulting from the reallocation of aircraft from longer-haul routes to support new service in Washington Reagan and first quarter weather-related cancellations. Finally, in conclusion, our key focus for the remainder of 2014 is cost control, revenue enhancements and balance sheet improvements. Several key longer terms strategic initiatives, including Sharklets in the A321, are well underway. While the first quarter was certainly challenging, we are committed to our ROIC goal of 7%. We believe generating an ROIC of 7% by the end of 2014 is attainable. And with that, Dave, Robin and I are happy to take your questions. Lindsey?