Mark D. Powers
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I apologize for the slightly weak voice. Note to self, when visiting Minnesota, take a coat. Anyway we are so pleased to report third quarter operating income today of $152 million. This is an increase of 35% compared to the third quarter 2012. These results are a credit to our 15,000 crew members, who do a great job taking care of our customers. Third quarter year-over-year passenger unit revenues, or PRASM, increased by 5.4% on a capacity increase of 5.1%. A solid demand and yield environment contributed to our record quarterly average fare of $164. That's a year-over-year increase of 6.5%. Although we saw strength throughout our network during the quarter, yield and unit revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean markets outpaced our system average. Today we continue to be very pleased with our success in this important region. Today we announced daily service from the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood-focused cities to Montego Bay, Jamaica, and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, beginning in May 2014. Boston short hauls also continued to perform well as we build relevance and increase corporate travel penetration. To that end, we recently announced 3 times daily service from Detroit and Boston commencing March 2014. We are now relevant to roughly 65% of Boston customers. We measure relevance as the number of routes JetBlue serves on a nonstop basis relative to the total number of domestic and international routes flown by travelers in Boston. Increased relevance has been an important driver of our strong revenue performance in Boston. We also continue to be very pleased with our revenue performance in our hometown of New York. We recently celebrated the fifth anniversary of our award-winning Terminal 5 at JFK airport. Construction of T5i, our international expansion at JFK, is on track and is scheduled to open by 2015. Year-over-year, PRASM increased by 5% in July, 3% in August and 9% in September. Demand during the peak summer travel season was solid. September benefited from strong close in demand and strength in Boston short-haul business markets, reflecting the success of our efforts over the past years to de-seasonalize the network and increase corporate travel. With respect to ancillary revenue, ancillary revenue per customer was up 11% versus last year at $21. That's a quarterly record. Our Even More offering was once again a significant driver of ancillary revenue growth and remains on track to generate approximately $165 million of revenue this year. Total ancillary revenues in 2013 are expected to increase about 15% year-over-year. Moving to costs. Quarterly operating expenses increased 8.1% year-over-year or $95 million. Fuel, of course, remains our largest expense, comprising nearly 40% of the total. We continue to maintain a fuel hedge portfolio as a form of insurance. In the third quarter, we hedged approximately 29% of our fuel consumption. Additionally fixed forward price agreements, or FFPs, covered approximately 14% of our third quarter fuel consumption for a total of 43%. Including the impact of fuel hedging, FFPs and taxes, our fuel price in the third quarter was $3.14 a gallon. For the fourth quarter, we've hedged approximately 27% of our anticipated jet fuel requirements. Additionally FFPs cover approximately 12% of our projected fuel consumption. The underlying details of our FFP and hedge positions as of October 24 are more specifically described in our investor update, which will be filed with the SEC later today. The impact of hedges and taxes -- including the impact, rather, of hedges and taxes, we're estimating fourth quarter fuel price of $3.03 per gallon and full year fuel of $3.13. Excluding fuel and profit sharing, year-over-year third quarter unit costs increased by 4.9%. The primary driver of the year-over-year increase was maintenance expense, which accounted for approximately 50% of the increase. As discussed on prior earnings calls, we faced greater maintenance cost pressures this year related to the aging of our E190 fleet and the CF34 engine. Although maintenance expense has been a source of significant cost pressure this year, we expect to see year-over-year maintenance cost inflation slow in the fourth quarter. Also contributing to the year-over-year increase in third quarter unit costs were airport rents and landing fees, which increased 9.6% year-over-year on a year cost basis. This was driven in large part by higher airport rents in several of our key focus cities as we assumed a larger portion of that airport's total costs with corresponding decreases in competitive capacity. Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with unrestricted cash and short-term investments of approximately $954 million or 18% of trailing '12 revenue. Not included in our cash balance is our line of credit with Morgan Stanley of $200 million and our revolving credit facility of $350 million. During the third quarter, we made debt and capital lease payments of approximately $70 million. Fourth quarter scheduled principal payments from debt and capital leases are expected to be $185 million. We also plan to redeem approximately $52 million of our 5.5% convertible bonds in December. With strong cash from operations and management capital commitments and debt maturities through the rest of the year, we believe JetBlue is positioned to maintain stronger liquidity through the fourth quarter and generate positive free cash flow. We expect to end the year with cash in a percent of trailing '12 revenue of roughly 15%. Strong cash from operations has enabled us to reduce outstanding debt and, as a result, decrease financial risk. Since 2008, we've paid down approximately 70 -- $700 million, rather, in adjusted net debt while growing our fleet 35%. S&P recently recognized the impact of these and other efforts by us, grading JetBlue's corporate rating 1 notch to B. Looking ahead to 2014, we have roughly $600 million in debt maturities that we plan to refinance or retire. We recently closed a private placement EETC for 206 -- $226 million with a funding date in March 2014, which coincides with the final maturity of JetBlue's 2004-1 EETC, which will release 13 aircraft. With this transaction, we have taken a portion of the interest rate risk off the table while using existing unencumbered collateral. We believe this provides financial flexibility with our new deliveries with respect to CapEx and fleet. JetBlue ended the quarter with 189 aircraft, including 130 A320s and 59 E190s. Earlier this month, we took delivery of our very first A321, and we expect to take delivery of 1 E190 and 3 additional A320s before the end of the year. We estimate fourth quarter capital expenditures of about $275 million, $200 million for aircraft and $75 million for non-aircraft-related expenditures. We estimate full year CapEx of approximately $630 million, of which approximately $60 million relates to LiveTV. As Dave mentioned, in addition to the A320 Sharklet retrofit, we announced several significant changes to our fleet plan this morning, which, we believe, will allow JetBlue to better match capacity with customer demand. We are essentially: one, converting 18 future A320 delivery positions to A321s, rather, converting that -- let me say it again, A320 delivery positions to A321s; two, deferring 24 E190s; and three, taking delivery of 15 additional A320s in the near term. JetBlue plans to optimize its E190 fleet to approximately 60 aircraft. We'd like to thank EMBRAER, in particular, for being a strategic partner in reaching this agreement and helping JetBlue achieve our network and financial goals. The changes we announced this morning reduced our aircraft purchase obligations by roughly $200 million through 2016. The A321s are very attractive because they allow us to more efficiently serve high-density markets, particularly those to Florida and the Caribbean. We believe the A321 is well suited for these markets because we expect to achieve similar revenue at lower unit costs than the A320. The A321 will also allow us to optimize our lucrative slot portfolio in New York. In addition, we expect the A321s to help us better manage costs over the long run, specifically the A321 aircraft in single-class configuration are expected to benefit from a 10% to 15% CASM advantage versus our A320 aircraft. These cost savings are driven in large part by a 10% to 15% fuel-efficiency advantage. We also announced plans to purchase 20 additional A321neo aircraft. The aircraft, which we expect to begin delivering in 2018, will give us the flexibility to replace older and less fuel-efficient A320s in the future. Additionally aircraft equipped with the new engine option are expected to benefit from a 12% to 15% fuel savings relative to the current A320 aircraft. Specific fleet changes are more specifically outlined in the press release we issued this morning. Moving to capacity. We expect to increase fourth quarter capacity -- fourth quarter ASMs between 7% and 9% year-over-year. Approximately 1/3 of this increase is due to our reduced flying as a result of Hurricane Sandy in the fourth quarter of 2012. We expect 2013 full year ASMs to increase between 5.5% and 7.5% year-over-year, unchanged from previous guidance. Turning to the revenue outlook. Bookings are shaping up well from both a yield and load factor perspective. We are seeing significant strengths during the peak Thanksgiving holiday period. While still very early but first look at December holiday period is shaping up nicely as well. Now as we move through the last 3 months of the year, there are several items impacting year-over-year unit revenue comparisons. Recall, October PRASM last year included a 2-point benefit related to Hurricane Sandy as we were able to reaccomodate customers and recapture revenue while reducing ASMs in the last 2 days of the month. We currently expect October PRASM to increase by approximately 4% year-over-year, including this 2-point headwind. Moving on to November. The comps get easier due to the significant demand challenges we faced in the wake of Hurricane Sandy last year. However because the Sunday and Monday following Thanksgiving, 2 of our highest revenue days of the year, fall in December this year, we expect November year-over-year PRASM comparisons to be negatively impacted by the calendar shift. Therefore November is a difficult month to forecast. As for the CASM outlook, keep in mind, last year's fourth quarter CASM was negatively impacted by flight cancellations related to Sandy, resulting in a CASM tailwind in the fourth quarter this year due to higher ASMs. We expect fourth quarter CASM, excluding fuel and profit sharing, to be between negative 0.5% and positive 1.5%. For the full year 2013, we're forecasting CASM, excluding fuel and profit sharing, to be up between 2.5% to 4.5% versus 2012. Maintenance costs are expected to comprise approximately 2/3 of the full year CASM x fuel profit-sharing increase. We project CASM all-in will between -- will be between negative 1% and positive 1% for the fourth quarter and up between 1% and 3% for the full year. In closing, we're very pleased with our performance. Our initiatives to increase revenue continue to gain terrific traction. On the cost side, we recognize that we clearly have more work to do, both on a structural and a tactical perspective. The fleet-related actions today are another many steps in that direction. We are also focused on improving our productivity and running a reliable operation, which we believe will help further reduce costs. I'd like to thank our crew members for making our strong third quarter results possible. I continue to be impressed everyday by the work you do in delivering the JetBlue experience to our 30 million annual passengers. And with that, Therese, Dave, Robin and I are happy to take questions.