Earnings Labs

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 26, 2019

$22.11

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the JAKKS Pacific Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Management will review financial Results for the quarter ended December 31, 2018. JAKKS issued its earnings press release earlier today. Presentation slides containing information covered in both today's earnings press release and call are available on our website in the Investor section. This presentation includes videos showing some of our key products. On this call this afternoon are Stephen Berman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Brent Novak, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Berman will first provide an overview of the quarter and provide highlights of product lines and current business trends. Then Mr. Novak will provide detailed comments regarding JAKKS Pacific's financial and operational results, prior to opening up the call for your questions. Your line will be placed on mute for the first portion of the call [Operator Instructions]. Before we begin, the company would like to point out that any comments made about JAKKS Pacific's future performance, events, or circumstances, including the estimates of sales and/or adjusted EBITDA in 2019 as well as any other forward-looking statements concerning 2019 and beyond are subject to Safe Harbor protection under federal securities laws. These statements reflect the company's best judgment based on current market trends and conditions today and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For details concerning these and other such risks and uncertainties, you should consult JAKKS’ most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC as well as the company's other reports, subsequently filed with the SEC from time-to-time. In addition today's comments our management refer to Non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA. Unless stated otherwise, the most directly comparable GAAP financial metrics has been filed with the associated Non-GAAP financial measure within the company's earnings press release issued today or previously. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. And with that I will now turn the call over to Stephen Berman.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Good afternoon everyone. And thank you for joining us today. This afternoon, we are going to review our performance during the fourth quarter of 2018. I will talk about how our brands and products performed in the quarter compared to last year and to our expectations. After my comments, Brent will discuss our financial performance. 2018 was a year that we saw unprecedented disruption in the global toy industry principally but not exclusively because of the bankruptcy and the liquidation of Toys "R" Us. When we held our second quarter earnings call last July, we said that while we expected that eventually most of the lost Toys "R" Us sales would be picked up by other retailers. We do not expect our sales or industry sales to see anything of a full transfer of these sales until next year. Other manufacturers disagreed but now looking back the transfer of business to other retailers did not happen for JAKKS and much of the industry. MTB reported that retail toy sales in the U.S. were down 7% for the fourth quarter and down 2% for the full year, that is roughly in line with the decrease that we saw in the U.S. in the fourth quarter. We believe most of that decline is due to the fact that other retailers were unable to make up the lost Toys "R" Us sales. We expect that by the end of 2019, the issue will have largely completed the adjustment but we expect to continue to see the disruption in the first half, bearing in mind that most of the industry's major suppliers were shifting to Toys "R" Us well into the first quarter of 2018, and that the liquidation sales appear to have pulled forward a lot of the consumer purchases into the first…

Brent Novak

Analyst

Thank you, Stephen and good afternoon everyone. Net sales for the 2018 fourth quarter were 132.3 million, down 3%, compared to 136.6 million last year. As was the case all year, the decline was essentially due to a decrease in sales to Toys “R” Us. Reported net income for the quarter with a loss of 3.2 million or $0.14 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of 30.4 million for $1.33 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2018 fourth quarter was negative 1.6 million, compared to negative 6.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. For the full year of 2018, net sales were 567.8 million, down 7%, compared to 613.1 million last year. Reported net income for the 2018 year was a loss of 42.4 million or $1.83 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $83.1 million or $3.89 per diluted share in 2017. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2018 was $2.3 million compared to $15.8 million for the full year of 2017. The sales drivers in the fourth quarter of 2018 by category were as follows. Sales of dolls, role play and dressup plus an activity products in our gross category amounted to $72.9 million for the 2018 fourth quarter, down 14% compared to $85.2 million in the comparable quarter last year. We saw positive contributions from the gross category with Incredibles 2, Fancy Nancy, and Disney Princess as well as from Perfectly Cute, a private label brand we produce for one major customer. These brands were more than offset by the expected decline in a number of girls lines including several entertainment content driven lines such as Moana, Frozen, Alina of Avalor and Tsum Tsum as well as Squish-Dee-Lish and Chocolate Egg Surprise, both…

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Thank you, Brent. Before we get to Q&A, I will share some thoughts on some of the properties and trends we think will be important in 2019. We're optimistic about 2019 for a number of reasons. First, we expect more of the Toys “R” Us business to be picked up by other retailers. And we expect the big winners to be customers we have strong relationships with. We still have to anniversary shipments to Toys “R” Us in the first quarter 2018, but after that, the comparisons are easier. Second, 2019 is shaping up to be very content rich year with an almost unprecedented lineup of entertainment content. And we have more than our share of licenses that we expect will drive sales. Third, we continue to spend our own IP consistent with our strategic goal of having our own IP constitute a higher portion of our total sales. We have several Disney properties that should benefit from either new or continued content including Fancy Nancy, which is doing very well in ratings and in toy sales and we will be shipping for the full year in 2019. We have product tied to Toy Story 4 such as the Buzz Lightyear Star Command Center, which received the best of Toy Fair award from Parents Magazine. We also have from the highly anticipated live action Aladdin film Dolls, Dress up and Role Play items. Disney will be celebrating the 30th anniversary of the release of The Little Mermaid this year, and we have special products for that celebration, including beautiful clamshell vanity. And of course, Frozen 2 will be out in time for Thanksgiving. We have several products shipping in the weeks leading up to the box office release, including special feature Dolls, Dress up and Role Play. One key driver…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Stephanie Wissink from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Stephanie Wissink

Analyst

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Stephen, the first question is for you. I always appreciate your candor when you're talking about the industry and wondering if you can just help us with that 5% growth forecasts for JAKKS. How are you thinking of that relative to the industry expectation? What are you thinking about the backdrop will be in terms of growth this year?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Good afternoon Stephanie, good morning. Well for JAKKS, I can speak specifically for JAKKS based off of the movie lineup, the TV show line up, the depth of our own IP and our categories that are, you know, very strong and very consistent. We're seeing growth in our mass distribution, both U.S. and internationally. The alternative distribution channel has grown very, very well both in the U.S. as well as internationally. And online sales from our online retailers as well, the online component of our brick and mortars are all really starting to come to fruition for us after about a three year plan of going and getting deeper into distribution that coupled with the content that we have, we have a tremendous amount of new content and we're hitting many different categories with all the new content coming out. So it's really like a perfect storm for us this year. In addition, on the separate sides Halloween, we're seeing a very nice dramatic growth for us this year in North America, one of which is the content line up as well as additional distribution we had going into 2019 as last year 2018, we had several online retailers in our Halloween segment that went into liquidation. So we believe the past call it hardships are behind us and we see a really good future going forward. I can't speak exactly for the industry so I just don't know what the toy industry or through MTD what they believe the growth is for 2019. And separately besides that we have obviously one of the top, top most call it sought after properties and a broad product line for the up and coming Frozen 2, which again, we did Frozen originally, we did really nice the first course, first quarter that was out, but the real strength was the following year, which will be 2020.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

But that's why to Steph -- when you look at that seasonality why we're kind of guiding more heavily for the back half. So 27% in the first half, the balance coming in the second half.

Stephanie Wissink

Analyst

Stephen, how should we think about Frozen 2 relative to Frozen 1 here? Typically, we assume that the sequels are less productive from a consumer products and merchandising perspective. But maybe share a little bit of insight into how Disney thinking about the globalization of that property this time. And then you mentioned several things that you have and just wanting to help understand for us to understand is the license similar in scope to what you had last time? Or do you have access to more subcategories this time around?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

For us the license is similar, but now we are much more educated of the content of Frozen and the characters is much more passionate to the understanding of the storyline from the first Frozen came out it was an unknown to many of us inclusive of Disney in the sense of what's the success will be. And we believe and also Disney believes as well as retail believes the sequel will be extremely powerful. Normally sequels are little bit less than the original, but for Incredible, for instance Incredibles the movie when it came out originally when it came out the second time. The movie surpassed the success of the original as well as the product lines did as well. So we're really now our breadth of our line is extremely expansive. We have a broad array of exclusives worldwide for retailers, the promotional plans that are being made by retailers around the world are much more in line ups, they know the success. So everyone is pushing for the success and counting on the success from Disney from us and from worldwide retailer. So I really believe this is a good being pretty equal to the original based on what we see today.

Stephanie Wissink

Analyst

And then Brent really quickly for you. Just on cash flow in 2019. I know you had to use up cash this year. Based on your sales growth forecast for the EBITDA what do you expect to be generating cash in 2019?

Brent Novak

Analyst

Q2 increased free cash flow? Yes, so adjusted EBITDA would be about 27 million, that's what we're projecting right now. So we should be able to generate a bit of cash going into 2020. There may be some working capital movement there, because again we're going to be more back half loaded in terms of sales.

Stephanie Wissink

Analyst

Okay, that's great. Thank you, guys.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

And Steph one other thing was we have the NPD data and NPD is same that sales in the U.S. in 2019 will be down approximately 1%.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your next question comes from Garrett Johnson from BMO Capital. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Q - Garrett Johnson

Analyst

So you called out strength in Europe others in the space have called out Europe as being very weak. We heard a lot of commentary around Toy Fair of Europe being very weak. So what are you seeing there differently? Why's your business doing well in Europe. Thank you.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Good afternoon Garrett. One is for us is our price points and our product line, we're seeing the appropriate price points that are resonating in addition to having the right products for the specific territory. So for us I can only speak for is that we're seeing nice pockets at specific retailers. There is some weakness at certain retailers across certain countries but for us in general we see nice things going. And for us we also have changed to a direct model was part of our business in Italy, Spain distribution partnerships we have actually have extremely built our UK operation too much more in depth operation of sales focused and marketing focus. So a lot of things we've been working on started coming to fruition last year.

Brent Novak

Analyst

Yeah but the incredible to was pretty strong to in Europe and so that that create some volatility going forward just to add that note on Stephen's.

Garrett Johnson

Analyst

Okay and we didn't hear anything about same loss. What's the update on the same are we actually launched in initiative?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

The same loss we actually launched in fourth quarter four new retailers one is Walmart.com, Riley Rose, Fab Fit and Fun and Ricky's in addition to our launches early in 2019 we have Target stores and HE Butt and our focus is now with specific influencers that we're working with to garnish now the actual sell through is based on the distribution and more of the call it structural necessity for say model be a placement at retail, both online retail and brick and mortar. And from there then we focused on the marketing with issues to the sell throughs.

Garrett Johnson

Analyst

Okay and sorry to bounce around but one more I should ask this one first. Can you talk about your POS in the quarter. How did that perform?

Brent Novak

Analyst

As in the POS last week ended up the year at retail going into first quarter 2019 from listening to the retailers across the board, as I'm generalizing levels are very low for us. We don't have high levels of inventory overall there are specific pockets of items that will have additional call it inventory that we need to address. But nothing that we see that's material to the company so we came into the year or the end of last year very healthy and not over shipping. And it actually provided sell throughs to be very well and not having a tremendous amount of inventory going into 2019.

Garrett Johnson

Analyst

Okay, so your POS was up in the quarter?

Brent Novak

Analyst

I don't have the key data year over year if it was up so I just don't have that in front of me.

Garrett Johnson

Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over Stephen Berman for concluding remarks.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Well thank you, ladies and gentlemen for the call. And we look forward to updating everybody after our first quarter and looking forward to a strong 2019. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

That concludes this conference call, thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.