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JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 25, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining the JAKKS Pacific Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Earnings Call with Management. Today, JAKKS will review the results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2014, which the company released earlier today. Please note that presentation slides containing information covered in today's earnings release and call are available on the Investor section of our website. On the call today are Stephen Berman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joel Bennett, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Berman will provide an overview of the quarter and the full year. Then, Mr. Bennett will provide detailed comments regarding JAKKS Pacific's financial, operational results. Mr. Berman will then conclude the prepared portion of the call with highlights of product lines and current business trends prior to opening up the call for your questions. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, the company would like to point out that any comments made about JAKKS Pacific's future performance, events or circumstances, including the estimates of sales and earnings per share for 2015 as well as any other forward-looking statements concerning 2015 and beyond are subject for Safe Harbor protection under Federal Security laws. These statements reflect the company's best judgment based on current market trends and conditions today and are subject to certain risk and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For details concerning these and other such risks and uncertainties, you should consult JAKKS' most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC, as well as the company's other reports subsequently filed with the SEC from time to time. With that, I will like to turn the call over to Mr. Berman.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. I will begin with remarks about our fourth quarter and full year 2014 and then I will turn the call over to Joel Bennett, who will take through our financials. We are very pleased with our strong fourth quarter performance, which was a great finale to a very solid 2014. JAKKS pursued a very strong quarter despite many challenges such as a highly competitive retail and consumer environment and the West Coast port issues that presented many logistical difficulties. We are thrilled with the reception of our Disney Frozen Snow Glow Elsa doll, which was among the most sought after toys in 2014 and won numerous accolades across the world. In fact, in 2014 we shipped over 1 million Snow Glow Elsa dolls internationally alone in over 30 different languages. Both our Snow Glow Elsa dolls and our own multi award winning Max Tow Truck, were featured in Fortune's Magazine list of top five most sought after toys, this past holiday season, but this year was not just about Frozen and Max Tow Truck. The fourth quarter closed an exceptional year, into which many of our products showed strong results and was sought out by many customers. Our big figures license range of large scale figurines as well as our Nintendo figures and plush had a solid 2014 and show a promise for the future. By Disguise Halloween division had the strongest year ever. Furthermore, 2014 was not only about great compelling product. It was also the year, where we fully streamlined operation efficiencies allowing JAKKS to return to profitability and growing our margins. These improvements enable us to be focused and agile, which was recognized by our retail partners with the Toys"R"Us, Vendor of the Year Award and the Walmart Seasonal Supplier of the Year Award for our disguise division. Disney also recognized JAKKS specific as the Licensee of the Year in Europe, Middle East and Africa and Best Girls and Tween Licensee in the UK and Ireland. Our ability to foresee the nature and scale of the port closures allowed us to strategize, to mitigate the impact which has kept us till this day, just ahead of the curve thus minimizing the affect to our business and allowing us to have healthy inventories with the start of the year ahead that already looks promising. In conclusion in 2014, we were able to showcase our core competencies of having the agility to develop, manufacture and ship high quality popular toy products and costumes and a quick response to consumer demand, while keeping a tight focus on operating efficiencies and margins. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Joel Bennett, to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2014 and then I'll give a further update of our business this year and beyond. Joel?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Thank you, Stephen and good morning, everyone. Net sales for the fourth quarter of 2014 increased 84% to $254 million from net sales of $137.7 million reported in the comparable period in 2013. Reported net income for the fourth quarter was $2.8 million or $0.11 per diluted share compared to reported net loss for 2013 of $16.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $10.6 million compared to negative EBITDA of $6 million in 2013. Net sales for the full year of 2014 increased to $810.1 million compared to $632.9 million in 2013. Reported net income for 2014 was $21.5 million or $0.70 per diluted share, this compares to a net loss for 2013 of $53.9 million or $2.43 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for 2014, was $52.9 million compared to negative EBITDA of $17 million in 2013. Worldwide sales of products in our traditional toys in electronic segment increased to $140.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to $76.7 million for the fourth quarter in 2013. For the year, traditional toys sales increased to $408.4 million in 2014 versus $320.6 million in 2013. Sales in this segment in Q4 were led by Disney Frozen Toddler dolls, Nintendo plush and figures and Star Wars figures driving the category to an overall increase this quarter. Worldwide sales from our role play, novelty and seasonal toys segment increased to $113.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to $61 million in 2013. And the sales for role play, novelty and seasonal toys for the full year of 2014 increased to $401.6 million from $312.4 million in 2013. Disney dress-up and role plays products including Frozen, Princess and Fairies dominated sales in the category this quarter driving the category to an overall increase. Included…

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Thank you, Joel. As you just heard, we're very pleased with our 2014 performance and enter into 2015 with prudent optimism. Our strong sell-throughs in 2014 left us in great shape at retail and we're already off to a strong 2015. Despite an initial estimate showing a reduction in sales for 2015. We will monitor sell throughs and seek additional opportunities as we did in 2014. And where possibilities occur, we will react as we did last year. As Joel mentioned earlier, for our first quarter forecast of 2015. We were seeing strong year-over-year growth compared to first quarter, 2014. As we enter into 2015, we are excited about achieving our strategic plans for international growth. Increased US distribution for both online and brick and mortar as well as a pipeline filled with great product offerings both physical and digital. We still believe, we can maintain a healthy level of profitability, even on lower revenue forecast. We are confident with higher gross margins and the operated efficiencies that we have attained and continue to work for, will result in continued profitability. In terms of product, we have created a terrific line up for 2015 in all of our segments. For Disney, we have developed a rich year two broad product line for Frozen, whose current sell throughs continue to be very strong and encouraging. We are keeping a close eye on the ongoing Frozen opportunities and are well positioned to capitalize on it. We are also very excited for the release of Disney's Cinderella live-action movie, expected to be in theatres in March. And we continue to feel strong about our core Princess line for the year. In addition, we are excited of our new line of Star Wars products for this fall. We continue to grow JAKKS own IP…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] our first question in line comes from Gerrick Johnson from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Joel, first off can you give us the convertible interest add back for the fourth quarter in year as well, shares outstanding, shares from converts etc.? Sorry because I'm having a little bit of trouble time through EPS number.

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Sure, the after tax interest for Q4 was 2,041,000, the weighted shares 24,284,000. For the full year 7,342,000 interest add backs, weighted shares 20,387,000 so that should get you there.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Okay and your first quarter sales are expected grow over 20% in your reserves for allowances are down about the same amount. So what explains those two going in opposite directions?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Generally, it's a matter of when the customers take their deductions. We fully accrue all programs as the sales are made. So it's more function of when the customers take the deductions.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Okay, so do you feel you're pretty much fully reserve for anything that might occur in the first quarter?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Absolutely.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Okay, I've a few more. I'll get back in queue.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] our next question in line comes from Sean McGowan from Needham. Please go ahead.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

I've a couple of quick questions and then one that might take a little bit longer. Joel, can you help us out with what we can expect on new guidance for take rate in 2015 and if you can for the fourth quarter give us some ballpark figure of what the gross margin was within each segment, where there was upside or downside there? Within the role play and the traditional toys?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Sure, with the legacy items we have margins ranging from the high 20s to the high 40s, but on average they are coming in that general range in terms of upside, this is about where we would expect them to be in the short-term, as we continue to re-cost, so there was nothing really anomalistic within each of the divisions.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

I was looking for like a more specific number like within role play, what was the gross margin in the fourth quarter and within traditional toys, what was the gross margin, do you have that handy?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

No, I don't. I'm sorry.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

Okay, I'll wait for the 10-K and then taxes in 2015? Tax rate, I mean effective tax rate.

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Yes, it's 14.9%, although it will fluctuate a little bit amongst the quarters because the flow of taxable income between Hong Kong and the US varies somewhat. For example, Q1 will be about 4.5%, but for the full year we are expecting at the 15%.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

Okay and then, if you, you went through a couple of factors that affected a cost and expense in the fourth quarter and could you talk, how that relates to why more of the sales upside. Isn't flowing down to the bottom line? Can you just kind of give us some order magnitude of what some of those costs were in the fourth quarter?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Sure, to recap on the upside of $55 million in sales, we would have ordinarily expected a read through of $10 million, $11 million. However, in the fourth quarter we had a number of unexpected in some non-operational expenses including legal associated with the shareholder actions. In addition, Target Canada is closing business and we had some bad debt associated with that. The upside in overall operations triggered some incremental bonuses and in addition to drive that upside, we had additional media and outbound freights since a lot of that upside came from domestic sales.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

Okay, so do you think if those things would add up, to about that, $10 million?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Yes, that's about $9 million. So again on the $55 million, we would have expect. Our incremental EBITDA margin is in the $20 million, so we would expect it about $10 million off of that $55 million.

Sean McGowan

Analyst

That's really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question in line comes from Stephanie Wissink from Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Maria Vizuete

Analyst

Hi, good morning, this is actually. Maria on for Steph. Thanks for taking our question and congrats on a great quarter. I've just a couple of questions. I was just wondering, first off if you can just discuss the sales forecast for 2015 and what the year-over-year decrease is primarily tied to, I assume it's Frozen and how strong Q4 was, but if you can discuss some of the specifics around that?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

As I go into 2014, I'll go through the product lines at really were successful. Frozen, Max Tow our big six category, our Nintendo line worldwide, miWorld, Black & Decker, the Disney Role Play and strengthen overall Moose Mountain those contributed a lot to our success in 2014 and some of those will continue on and grow into 2015, whereas, where we got our forecasting guidance which our introduction of new items, which will be Hulk's mask, Amazing RC [ph] and the Marvel RC [ph] which is based off several movies being launched this year. We are continuing to develop new products in our Frozen category. We have a second amazing doll to go as we did with our Snow Glow Elsa called Sing Along with Elsa, which allows a child to sing the full song with Elsa and the doll will sing with the child. We also have an amazing jewellery box that just to name a few. For 2015, we have the new Cinderella live-action movie which launches in March and we expect many good opportunities in various categories. Max Tow has a very large extended line from Max Tow 2.0 to Max Mini's. We have big things with the Star Wars launch as well as big fig containers with Minions. We have a very broad line of Nintendo, our 3D Creation station, new launches of Street Dog and SKECHERS and Halloween. We have Emoji's [ph], Nintendo, Cinderella live-action, the new movie from Disney, Descendants. And My Little Pony, so that all coupled with a lot of continuation in growth from 2014 going into 2015, with new categories area how we compelled focusing on our guidance for 2015. Again, we are really cautiously optimistic for 2015. This is the best estimate that we have at this time and we will continue to see how things progress and develop through the course of the year and we'll just make adjustment positive and or negative when necessary, but of course we'll want nothing more than to exceed our forecast again as we did in 2014.

Maria Vizuete

Analyst

Great. Thank you. That's very helpful. Just a couple quick other questions. On the cost side, in 2015, do you guys expect any benefits from product cost this year and what is your exposures to resin, which is great? Thank you.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

On the first, as we indicated in the release our short-term margin targets are at least 31% and we're achieving those by re-costing legacy items which we don't have the ability to raise prices, but by re-costing, by going to other factories we were able to actually effect some nice margin improvement and that just extends to improved sourcing overall for new products as well. In addition, we are better managing licenses and the expectation of short fall, is that they will be much lower and we've mentioned in previous calls Frozen becomes part of the core Disney Princess effectively cost collateralizing those contracts and then with new items, we have the ability to create the value at retail and through that cost, actually bring new lines into the portfolio that have higher than average margin.

Maria Vizuete

Analyst

Thanks and just on the resin exposure, can you provide us with that?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Sure. Some of products have no plastics, we do a lot of role plays and dress-up. So we're really not exposed especially now that oil has been below $100 and well below historical rates for long time. So we have very little exposure to that.

Maria Vizuete

Analyst

Great and I'm sorry, just last question. Can you just enlighten us with the D&A [indiscernible]? Thank you so much.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

In 2014, it ran about $21.4 million and we have been able to reduce CapEx through engineering of tools and moulds. So we would expect that in the $21 million range again for, I'm sorry, it was $19 million last year, so we'd expected about $19 million in 2015.

Maria Vizuete

Analyst

Great, thank you so much and best of luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question in line comes from Jeffrey Thomison from Hilliard Lyons. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Thomison

Analyst

I had several questions and they've all been asked and answered. So let me just come up with a small question for you. If you could clarify to whatever extent you're comfortable, what specific licenses you will have in 2015 from the Frozen and Star Wars property given those are such a high profile property?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

So for the Frozen and Princess categories which they're combined together now. Frozen is part of the core princess, we have large dolls toddler and baby worldwide, we have 3-inch to 6-inch toddler dolls and baby dolls. We have 18-inch Princess & Me dolls, we have dress-up and dress-up accessories. We have the role play category, we have the bulk category which are like vanities and kitchen. We have style heads and my size dolls. We have miscellaneous activities like the Olaf Snow Cone Maker and Switch Em Ups. We have a broader ray of flash lights, broad array of costumes and our Moose Mountain categories. It's very broad from ball pits to wagons to 2-in1 Happy Hauler, and kids only, big wheels, kids indoor and outdoor furniture and so on. Those are just to name a few, on the Cinderella live-action we have large dolls which are toddler and baby dolls, the 18-inch princess dolls. Dress-up and dress-up accessories, role play and Halloween costumes and on Star Wars which is classic Rebels and Episodes VII. We have 18-inch to 20-inch figures and vehicle scales worldwide, 31-inch figures worldwide, our 48-inch figures which we did last year was a Teenage Ninja Mutant Turtles. We have moulded flash lights, plug and play and a wide variety of Moose Mountain to just a name a few.

Jeffrey Thomison

Analyst

So, Stephen is there anything specific that will be branded, The Force Awakens, in the fourth quarter?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Yes, there is from our 18-inch and 20-inch figures and vehicle scales, to those categories to our 31-inch figure, to our plug and play, our 48-inch figure and I believe some of the Moose Mountain everything I mentioned will be part of Episodes VII: The Force Awakens.

Jeffrey Thomison

Analyst

Okay, great. Well good luck on all that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question on line comes from Mr. Ed Woo from Ascendiant Capital. Please go ahead.

Ed Woo

Analyst

I had a question about retail inventory. How does it look out there?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

If you're talking on specifically broad array of JAKKS Pacific products, we are extremely healthy on inventory. In fact, to-date our sell throughs, we couldn't be more pleased with. Two of our top retailers in the US started with 15% less inventory than the prior year, which leaves more open by an increased demand for replenishment. Our Frozen categories of business continue to show extremely positive sell throughs comps versus 2014 at all of our top retail partners, very impressive week-over-week growth and we're enjoying a really - point right now, as approximately 30% POS increase at Walmart on total sales revenues. So we're seeing some great sell throughs currently at retail. I cannot speak on behalf of competition of where they're at, with inventories.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Okay in terms of your Frozen inventory at retail, are you pretty well stocked or are you still chasing demand?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

I would say, we are continuing to be well stocked, but we're constantly shipping as you've seen in our inventory, we have avoided a major portion of the port issue, so we brought inventory in based off of multiples and sell throughs and I think based of what we reviewed over the last week, we have 80% to 90% end stock at our major retailers and our secondary retailers and we're keeping at, we're not, we have to focused on, it's not just having compelling product amongst the whole company, we have to be able to be in stock and achieve what the retailers need and that's something that JAKKS does very well. We are very agile, but you can speak to our customers. So we meet the demand that how we win specific customer award. So I think we've done very well in keeping up with demand and making sure we have the right product in the right areas and not having the incorrect product in incorrect areas.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Great, then I had a question about your international business. Is your international business facing similar momentum with your domestic business and also are you forecasting growth international in 2015?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Yes, we're forecasting growth in 2015 internationally and what's occurring for us, is that we're actually getting additional licenses, where we didn't have them previously for our international territories, which is helping. We also have more of our own IP which is very beneficial international territories. In addition, we announced later last year. Our joint venture with Meisheng which gives a free trade sales agreement with China. We have a new office in Mexico and a new office in Germany. So all that being said, we see strong growth and we're hoping for exceptional growth in 2015, but we're monitoring it throughout the year, but international is something we've mentioned over the last 18 months, where we're putting extremely strong effort and the team that we have in our international business I think is one of the best. So we're excited for international to continue to grow, not just in 2015, but well beyond.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Great and one last question, I have is on cash. You guys obviously are going to be generating a lot of cash. You guys have a lot of working capital. Do you have any comments on what you guys made views on cash in 2015?

Joel Bennett

Analyst

Sure, I mean we consider a lot of different deployment areas, our converts are trading below par. We look at the stocks from time-to-time, in addition to there is a robust acquisition flow. So for the right opportunity, we would pursue any or all of those.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

In addition, the components we see growth as we've said in the past, one is through new compelling product and licenses. Acquisition is been part of our DNA since inception. Our international expansion, not just in offices and people, but licenses and developing products specifically for the international territories and also doing two tiered call it marketing distribution and development platform, which allows us to get into alternative channels such as Gamestop, Justice and Col [ph]. So we're utilizing the cash in many various areas, but the most of part of it is to, one is to bring shareholder value and two is to make sure that we have, the roots in this company to grow in all aspects of our businesses.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Thank you and good luck.

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Gerrick Johnson from BMO Capital Markets.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Just wanted to touch on international huge increase during the quarter. Was there any sort of lift from switching over to direct distribution in Mexico, China there and do you anticipate any lift from other geographies going direct?

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Gerrick, great question. It's about one is, selling direct where we do in many territories. We have a split platform for distribution which minimizes our risk which is distribution as well as selling direct, but the selling direct we are becoming more and more agile to sell direct where appropriate. So in Mexico, which is a very big market, China is a very big market, UK, Germany and France. We sell direct and we sell through distributor. So there, the growth is coming from selling direct retail and being able to market our own product and control what we do with our own product as well as another areas using distribution, but in addition as we're acquiring increase of licenses worldwide such as Nintendo various Disney licenses and China in fact, we have a broad array of the Disney licenses and which we have in the US. So it's coming from various segments, various areas, but international be a very big growth trajectory for us over the next few years. So we set the placements over the last 18 months. So we're really cautious, but optimistic with the approach.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And so you guys put up some good numbers this quarter, you know some good guidance. Your stock is down 8% kind of replay of what we saw in the third quarter. I don't know, I'm just guessing that some people probably thinking you're just all about Frozen not maybe it and you can't replicate that going forward. Can you just clarify how much of your business really is Frozen, how much is licensed in general, how much is your own brand? Just so we can get a better idea of what your business can look like going forward. Thanks.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

So one is, I can give you. We're probably about 70% a licensed company, but we're also leaders in specific categories. So we can't break out the what we do by license, whether it's Nintendo, whether it's a Star Wars or whether it's a Disney, Frozen, but what we can do is talk about the strength. We've been a licensed company since day one, Halloween we're leader in. We have very strong licenses in that category. Even we license from a friendly competitor Hasbro for their rights and Moose Mountain, kids only. We license from Hasbro as well as Mattel, Fisher-Price in those categories. So we have categories that we lead in and license are strong sometimes throughout the year and weeks sometimes the following year, so this last year we had Maleficent, which did really nice for and continues to share and this year, we have Cinderella live-action across a broad array of product. We have been since inception a strong license based company, but in addition we have a strong our own proprietary products from Spy Net, to Max Tow, to 3D Creations, to Street Dogs. Our Selfie Booth, our miWorld area. So it's a mix and I'm sorry, can't answer the question of what each license means to us in dollars as we're precluded, but I will tell you Frozen and I know people it's been brought up last year, it was a concern that Frozen would be gone this year. We couldn't be more positive about Frozen, but it's too early in the year like it was for us last year to give a good forward-looking understanding as we did last year early on. We are very positive, we have lot of line extensions in various categories. Disney has a lot behind Frozen worldwide this year. So we're excited about Frozen, but not just about Frozen. We are excited about our Hulk's mask, Max Tow and Nintendo and we're excited about various areas of business and we're just not a Frozen company, but at the same time Frozen is a dream for JAKKS anyone that has license and for Disney, who created it.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I see we have no further questions in queue. With that I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Berman for closing comments.

Stephen Berman

Analyst

Again thank you to our shareholders and also to our employees, who have done a great job in 2014 and what they're doing in 2015 and we appreciate everyone's time on this call and feel free to call myself or Joel with any follow-up questions. Thank you very much.