Tim Mullany
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, Darin, and good morning, everyone. My quarterly review will begin with financial results for both of our brands before closing with remarks on guidance and capital allocation. Note that Q3 marked the first full quarter of Del Taco within our consolidated results. Starting with Jack in the Box, system wide sales fell 1.4% while same store sales declined 0.6% in the quarter, consisting of positive company wide same store sales up 3.5% and a franchise same store sales decline of 1%. When removing the impact of our four evolving markets, our company same store sales would have been approximately 200 basis points higher. During the quarter, system wide sales declined relative to same store sales due to a one week shift affecting the calculation of same store sales related to the 53rd week in 2021. This one week shift had a more positive impact on same store sales due to lapping less of the stimulus benefit in its calculation when compared to the fiscal quarter comparison. The decline in system same store sales was largely attributable to fewer transactions and reduced operating attributable to fewer transactions and reduced operating attributable to fewer transactions and reduced operating compared to last year. These were mostly offset by price increases. The Jack in the Box brand continue to experience staffing challenges that resulted in lost operating hours compared to the prior year period. Although we showed consistent improvement within the company portfolio, helping mitigate its impact on third quarter sales performance. Furthermore, we experienced improvements in speed of service trends, which Darin touched on earlier as the quarter progressed. And for the first time in several quarters, we were pleased to not experience any meaningful product supply disruptions or shortages during Q3. The quarter began with negative same store sales trends as we lapsed stimulus checks from last year, but as that impact faded, the trend turned positive. The snack and dinner dayparts drove most of our quarterly sales improvement, seeing the least amount of traffic pressure of all dayparts and benefiting from fan favorite menu items, notably Popcorn Chicken and a Double Bacon Cheese Jack. Transactions for both the breakfast and late night dayparts declined and addressed this in Q4 we will run a popular breakfast LTO along with improvement in staffing during the late night daypart. Same store sales increased sequentially on a three year basis by 70 basis points and company owned same store sales were also 70 basis points higher than our 2019 performance of the same period. Core premium menu items, driven by the Cluck Chicken Sandwich, Ultimate Cheeseburger and Sourdough Jack and value items driven by the Chicken Sandwich inside such as Tacos and Tiny Tacos contributed positively to Q3 sales. As we have long stated, we will continue to innovate and seek to benefit from the return of fan favorites, as well as employ our successful barbell strategy to balance value and premium offerings. Notably, restaurants with open dining rooms at quarter end were at about 55% of the system and experienced higher sales gains year-over-year than stores with closed dining rooms as in-store activity continued to increase. Regarding store count. During the quarter, there were three openings and three closings, maintaining our Jack restaurant count at 2,207. Inclusive of Del Taco, there are now over 2,800 units across the entire company. Jack restaurant level margin for the quarter was 15.8%, inclusive of our temporary evolving markets portfolio. As a reminder, the evolving markets are comprised of Oklahoma, Kansas City, Oregon and Nashville, which were acquired for the purpose of refranchising. Excluding these four evolving markets, restaurant level margin would have been 19.3%. Additionally, we are pleased to enter into an LOI for the Oregon market. And as Darin mentioned, we are nearing agreement on two of the remaining three markets. In addition to the impact from these markets, restaurant level margin was pressured by unprecedented commodity and wage inflation, at levels consistent with industry trends. Pricing of 9.7% helped us manage the cost environment and we will continue to take a disciplined and measured approach to pricing strategies as a means of mitigating the impact on our margin and bottom line. Food and packaging as a percentage of company owned sales in the period was up 3.6% versus the prior year, primarily due to commodity inflation of 16.8% as well as unfavorable sales mix, partially offset by menu price increases. The inflation we have experienced is across all categories with the greatest impact seen in proteins, sauces, oils and beverages. Excluding evolving markets, this impact decreases to 3.3%. Labor as a percentage of company owned sales in the period was up 3.6% due largely to wage inflation of 13.2% compared to prior year, as well as the impact of our evolving markets. These two cost pressures were partially offset by price increases and by lower incentive compensation. As you know, the labor market remains tight and we have selectively increased wages in key markets to attract and retain talent. Excluding evolving markets, labor as a percentage of company owned sales was up 2.2%. Occupancy and other costs as a percentage of company sales in the period was up 2.5% due largely to 29 restaurants within our evolving markets portfolio with lower than average sales volumes and higher costs for maintenance, repair and utilities. Franchise level margin in the quarter came in at 41.4% or $70.8 million, a $6 million decrease compared to the prior year with just over $2.7 million due to the St. Louis area of franchisee bankruptcy. Without this impact, franchise level margin would have been 42.2% for the quarter, only 110 basis points lower than the prior year of 43.3%. Jack SG&A in the quarter was $26.9 million. Excluding advertising, G&A was $21.8 million, $4.7 million higher than the prior year. The driver of the increase was net COLI losses in the period versus a gain in the prior year. This increase was partially offset by lower litigation matters, incentive compensation and other. Adjusted EBITDA was $73.2 million, down from $79 million in the prior year due primarily to lower restaurant and franchise level margin as well as net COLI losses. Consolidated GAAP EPS for the third quarter came in at $1.08 compared to $1.79 in the prior year. Operating earnings per share, which includes certain adjustments came in at $1.38 for the quarter versus $1.64 in the prior year. The decline in operating earnings per share was primarily attributable to lower company restaurant level margin and franchise level margins at Jack, as well as a higher interest expense connected with increased borrowings to fund the acquisition. Turning now to the Del Taco segment. System wide sales were up 3.3%, while same store sales rose 3.5%, consisting of the company's same store sales increase of 2.3% and a franchise same store sales increase of 4.8%. The difference in same store sales performance was primarily due to pricing, as well as a number of non-California markets posting outside same store sales performance, as these franchise markets continue to demonstrate considerable brand loyalty. Notably, the brand outperformed the fast food industry during the quarter for 11 out of 12 weeks and exceeded the quarterly industry benchmark by more than 200 basis points. Similar to Jack, Del Taco looked toward price and helping combat inflationary headwinds related to food and labor. Average check rose as a result in spite of modest transaction declines. The impact of reduced operating hours in the quarter was immaterial to the system wide same store sales result and the trend line was stable. The snack and dinner dayparts drove the majority of the sales improvement versus the prior year in 2019 and was aided by delivery growth that over indexes at late night. Compared to 2019, same store sales growth was mid single digits for the company and double digits for franchise with positive results across all major geographies. During the quarter, the two for quick combo meal platform had the greatest contribution of sales through higher pricing from the $5.50 to $6, while the 20 under $2 menu, which launched in Q2 to help preserve and drive value, contributed a notable sales lift from the chicken roller refresh. There were five closings of which two were company and three were franchised, and the quarter end Del Taco restaurant count was 594. Since the beginning of the fiscal year, which includes both before and after the acquisition, there have been three Del Taco openings and 11 closings. Del Taco restaurant level margin was 17.6% compared to 21.2% in the prior year. The variance was due primarily to pressure from commodities, wage inflation and the impact from purchase accounting. Company owned pricing for the quarter was just over 11%. Food and packaging as a percentage of company owned sales in the period was up 2.7% versus the prior year, primarily due to commodity inflation of 20.5% that was only partially offset by menu price increases. While commodity inflation was pervasive across all categories, the greatest headwinds were seen in proteins, oil, avocados, cheese and tortilla shells, which collectively represent 70% of the overall impact. Labor as a percentage of company owned sales in that period was down 0.4% versus the prior year. The rate per hour inflation was 10.8% but same store sales increases and well controlled labor hours resulted in an improved labor margin percentage. Finally, occupancy and operating costs as a percentage of company owned sales in the period were up 1.3% due to higher utility costs and delivery fees. Franchise level margin in the quarter came in at $5.1 million or 42.7%, a decrease of [1.6%] from a year ago. This modest decrease was mostly due to the impact of increased leasehold interest amortization and franchise IT support costs, while favorable same store sales and royalties as well as lower support and other costs contributed positively. We are focused on successfully integrating Del Taco and realizing our target synergies, which will be a continued priority as we close out 2022 and head into 2023. Moving on to guidance. We are updating our restaurant level margin guidance as well as our CapEx and other investments for full year 2022. Jack restaurant level margin is now expected to be around 16%, which includes high single digit price increases. Our previous guidance was around 17%. Restaurant level margin, when removing the temporary evolving markets, is expected to be around 19%, also 1% lower than our previous guidance of around 20%. And lastly, our company wide CapEx and other investments guidance is now at $50 million to $55 million for full year 2022 due primarily to lower franchise incentive capital deployment towards restaurant reimages. Our previous guidance was $75 million to $80 million. All guidance measures not mentioned remain the same as previously disclosed. And as we said in May, our intention remains to provide specific Del Taco guidance beginning in November for full year 2023. Turning now to our capital allocation strategy. We have previously discussed that our primary goal is investing in growth while being disciplined in returning cash to shareholders via share repurchases and quarterly dividends. This combination, in our view, is the surest means to unlock shareholder value over the long term. Our strategy also entails operating an asset light business model, which would involve refranchising Del Taco along with our Jack in the Box evolving markets. However, identifying appropriate partners as part of this effort is critical, both in terms of strengthening our franchisee base across both brands so that we can deliver attractive annualized net unit growth by 2025, as well as maximize proceeds. We continue to pursue sale leasebacks for our own Jack in the Box properties in consultation with our advisers, who are evaluating optimal structures within the securitization. This program is underway and we look forward to providing more updates in the future as further details are finalized. Shifting to share repurchases. As I said on our Q2 call, we would be resuming share repurchases in the back half of this year and stand by that commitment. While we did not repurchase any shares during Q3 as part of our $200 million share repurchase authorization, we intend to execute $25 million in share repurchases in the fiscal fourth quarter. These repurchases demonstrate our commitment to deploying capital to drive shareholder return when we have excess liquidity available and can do so at an attractive price. In closing, we are making progress on simplifying our business model through refranchising Del Taco, addressing evolving markets at Jack in the Box and continuing to provide short term visibility where it would be most helpful. On behalf of myself and this leadership team, I would like to thank all of our team members and franchisees across Jack and Del Taco for their efforts and perseverance. As we navigate through the near term, we are looking confidently towards our future of harnessing the combined power of our two brands. We have great optimism for what lies ahead for Jack in the Box. And with that, we'd be happy to take some questions. Operator, please feel free to open the line for Q&A.