Jerry P. Rebel
Analyst · Barclays
Thank you, Linda, and good morning. I'll begin with a discussion of our Q3 results, followed by our updated fiscal year 2012 outlook. And then, before Q&A, I'll provide additional information regarding our restructuring activities, as well as our decision to outsource distribution. All of my comments this morning regarding per share amounts refer to diluted earnings per share. Third quarter earnings on a GAAP basis were $0.26 per share, compared with $0.38 last year. Operating earnings per share, which we define as EPS on a GAAP basis, excluding gains from refranchising and restructuring charges, were $0.37 in the quarter versus $0.25 last year, up 48%. Restructuring charges of approximately $0.16 per share in Q3 and $0.19 per share year-to-date are included in impairment and other charges and are excluded from our full year operating EPS guidance. Moving on to the results for the quarter. Average weekly sales for Jack in the Box company restaurants were $30,200 and were up 10% in the quarter from last year. Consolidated restaurant operating margin of 16.5% of sales for the quarter was 400 basis points better than last year's third quarter, which was negatively impacted by 50 basis points worth of cost relating to new menu boards and uniforms. Jack in the Box margins improved from 11.8% to 15.8%, and Qdoba margins improved from 16.7 -- excuse me, from 15% to 18.7% in the quarter. The key contributors to the improvement in consolidated margins as compared to last year were, in approximate amounts, sales leverage, 140 basis points; food and packaging cost, 160 basis points; refranchising, 50 basis points; Qdoba acquisitions, 40 basis points; the new menu boards and uniforms, 50 basis points; which were partially offset by higher credit card fees. The 160 basis point decrease in food and packaging costs resulted from the benefit of price increases and favorable product mix at Jack in the Box, as well as a greater proportion of Qdoba company restaurants, which more than offset commodity inflation. Commodity inflation moderated to approximately 1%, driven by lower beef, cheese, dairy, pork and produce cost. Before I review our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year, I'd like to provide an update to our commodity cost outlook for the remainder of the year. Overall, commodity costs are now expected to increase by approximately 3.5% for the full year in key points, with respect to our major commodity purchases and where we have coverage. Beef accounts for approximately 20% of our spend and remains the biggest challenge we have in forecasting commodity costs. For the full year, we now expect beef cost to be up approximately 5%, reflecting a continuation of lower cost for beef 50s. Chicken is about 9% of our spend, and our contract fixed to cost through December 2012. Cheese accounts for about 6% of our spend, and we have 50% coverage through the end of fiscal year 2012. And bakery accounts for about 8% of our spend. We have 100% coverage through September 2012 and 30% coverage through December 2012. And for the quarter, we expect commodity cost to be flat to up 1%. Now let's move on to the rest of our guidance for the balance of the year. I won't repeat all of the full year guidance included in the press release, but here's our current thinking on some of the line items that have changed since our May guidance. Same-store sales are now expected to increase 4% to 4.5% at Jack in the Box company restaurants and 2.5% to 3% for the Qdoba system. Restaurant operating margin for the full year is now expected to be approximately 15%, depending on same-store sales and commodity inflation. Our full year guidance for SG&A and impairment charges assumes distribution revenues are reported as we have historically done. And operating earnings per share, which we define as diluted earnings per share on a GAAP basis, excluding gains from refranchising and restructuring charges, are now expected to range from $1.12 to $1.22. And diluted earnings per share are now expected to range from $1.48 to $1.58, excluding restructuring charges. And now, let me discuss our restructuring activities and our decision to outsource distribution. Restructuring cost incurred in Q3 were primarily associated with our voluntary early retirement program, approximately $10 million of the $11.3 million in total restructuring charges. As you know, we have established a target for our G&A as a percent of systemwide sales of 3.5% to 4%. With our broad reach in restructuring activities, including the early retirement plan, we have identified approximately $10 million of annualized reductions in G&A, and we will begin to see the benefit of this in our cost structure beginning in 2013. We are engaged in additional restructuring activities and expect to incur incremental restructuring charges to yield further benefits, and we'll provide more information on our year-end call regarding the expected cost and savings. In the fourth quarter, we entered into an agreement with MBM Food Service Distribution to outsource our distribution services, subject to the anticipated completion of certain closing conditions. This agreement is expected to provide long-term price stability for both company and franchised restaurants. MBM distributes to many in the restaurant space, including key brands in QSR. The outsourcing of distribution will free up approximately $60 million in working capital currently tied up in franchise receivables and distribution center inventories that we can deploy to further enhance shareholder returns. We expect to report the distribution business, along with the associated exit costs for asset write-offs and continuing lease obligations as discontinued operations in the fourth quarter. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'd now like to turn the call over to Stacy to open it up for questions. Stacy?