George A. Kunberger
Analyst · UBS
A few minutes, huh? Okay. Well, good morning, everyone. It's George Kunberger. I've met some of you, and I'm delighted to be making my debut here today with my friend Mr. Watson and Kevin. Let's start with Slide #8, which is our diversity slide representation. You've seen this many times before. It's obviously a slide that doesn't change a lot quarter-to-quarter because it's based on a 12-month trailing backlog, so the math just doesn't allow. However, I do want to point out a couple of things. The diversification that it shows on the process side, the number there is about 46%. And for those of you who keep track of these kinds of things, that number was about 48% last quarter on a slightly smaller revenue stream. On the public sector side, that number has increased from about 35% to 37%. That's indicative of a couple of different things. One is the strengthening of public sector market, as Kevin talked about, and a little bit of a headwind impact that we have on the process side, but is more a factor of the fact that as we've evolved over 12 months, it now represents a full 12 months of SKM being in the backlog. And so just the math drives the public institutional side up a little bit. It doesn't necessarily represent the geographic diversification the company has. But as you're well aware, we have the diversification of markets spread out across a wide geographical diversification, so it brings an added value and power through our ability to adjust to these markets. I would say just to -- because I want to use this line. I mean, I've always looked to this picture as a bit of a rose. And it can be a plain rose. But I would say that looking at it through the lens of $45 now oil, it looks pretty darn nice to me right now. So let's move on to Slide #9 and let's talk about these various market sectors. I'd like to start with the public and institutional. As you know, we started showing the backlog within these major market areas down the lower right-hand column. As you can see clearly, the backlog in this particular area grew nicely over this last quarter. That's actually at a rate of about 16% on an annualized basis. I would say this market, I would characterize all of it as being good to strong, both -- and really on a geographical basis. And I'd anticipate looking at our prospect list that this kind of growth will continue on a relatively strong basis throughout the rest of the year, for sure. Going to the individual areas a little bit, I'd like to characterize it like this. All of these areas on this chart, on this page that we have right here, the markets are good to strong in various ways. Just to give you some example. If we look at the defense spending, defense spending has started to stabilize in the U.S. and is ramping up in the U.K. and in Australia. There's some very big programs associated with redeployment of bases in Asia-Pacific, which as you well know, we're very well positioned, both from a relationship perspective, a capability perspective and a geographical perspective to go after it, for sure. If you look at the nuclear cleanup space, that's a growing marketplace both in the U.S. and U.K., and we have a strong resume in both areas and is a marketplace that as you've seen some of our press releases in recent quarters on Sellafield, as an example, we have an opportunity to continue to take advantage of that. The transportation, utility, infrastructure market is good pretty much around the world. There's been a lot of pent-up capacity, as you all know, not only in the U.S. but in the U.K., in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, really pretty much all around the world. And so while I wouldn't say this is buoyant, off-the-page kind of growth, it is strong, steady growth for sure. Jacobs is well positioned geographically in all of those areas to get after that marketplace. And because of our, I would say, our unique and wonderful business model, as I like to characterize it, we are able to get after that project and move our resources around the world to bring our best resources to bear to capture and bring those -- and capture those marketplaces. In the health care and education, a growth strength, again, not only in the U.S., but everywhere around the world. And then in the area of even like social development, there's a double-sided sword to what's happening in the oil business, and we'll get into the geopolitics of all that. I'm sure you're well aware of them. But you look at the spending that's going on in the Middle East as they try to grow that part of the world on behalf of the citizens of those countries, tremendous amount -- I mean, in the order of $800 billion to $900 billion worth of expenditures planned over the next 5 to 6 years. And again, for the reasons I just articulated, our relationship in that part of the world, along with our capabilities, along with our ability to deliver those resources, really makes it a strong marketplace for us. So overall, I have to say that I'm extremely optimistic about this marketplace. I know it's strong. It's not going to light the world on fire, but it is going to be strong and steady growth as we go through the rest of the year, and I think into the following years as well. So let's go to the next slide, which is what we call our industrial sector or market area, which, of course, has a lot of different factors to it. I'll start with my old favorite, pharmabio. I think as you probably know, there's some exciting things going on in the pharmaceutical word today. New discoveries in the areas of immuno-oncology, which, frankly, are going to make all of us in this room and on this phone call healthy and live longer. There's tremendous discoveries being made there. And of course, that results in real significant capital spending going on, primarily in the Western world, so in the U.S., Ireland, Mainland Europe. And of course, as you well know, Jacobs is a very strong contender in the biological marketplace. And so we're well positioned from a skill set in that perspective. I'll say [ph] pharma companies continue to divest in their distribution of their stable products in developing parts of the world. And as we've discussed many times, we're well positioned to do that. I would say that unlike in the past, the competition is starting to return to this space, to be fair. I guess that they're coming back, away from some of the other marketplaces they've been focusing on for a while. So we are seeing increased competition in this space, which we haven't for a while, but we are capturing more than our fair share of this market space, so that's good. Mining and metals, as Noel articulated, I mean, we are in a depressed commodity situation, and I don't see that necessarily changing for a long time. This marketplace will not be a marketplace that we see much significant growth in over the next couple of years, but that doesn't mean it's not a good marketplace for us. As you well know, we've positioned ourselves to start taking advantage of sustaining capital in this market space around the world. And we're having good success with all the majors in that area, both -- whether it's South America and Australia specifically. Some of the majors who are, frankly, still making money even in this depressed commodity marketplace -- they're not making the money they once made, but they're still making money -- they are starting to at least study potential future expansion projects. It'll obviously -- since it's just in the study phase, it'll be a few years before we really see that translate into major capital expenditures. I mean, overall, the capital expenditure rate in this marketplace is still going down, but it will eventually turn around in a few years out as a result of some of these studies and as the overall global economy changes. So that's good. And then because they're trying to get after better utilization of their spaces, there are a number of key sort of plum projects around the world that are in the brownfield space that are really directed towards improving the utilization of existing assets. And there are a number of those around that we're well positioned to capture, and we're going after those. Pulp and paper and high tech and consumer products. New -- for the newbuild and products in the U.K. continue to be there for us, and we're happy with those. In the area of consumer products, as you well know, those lend themselves to alliance types of relationships. And we are very good at alliances. And those opportunities continue to be available to us around the world. And in the high-tech space, there are a number of key clients. You could just look at who's making money today and who's not and understand that, that's an opportunity for companies like Jacobs to get after it, and we are, for sure. So let's move on to the process world. So obviously, the process world is uncertain, for sure. But uncertain does not make it bad necessarily. Now you really do need to look at the various individual elements of this marketplace to look at it. So let's just start with the upstream, probably the most impacted globally for sure, and let's more importantly look at its impact on Jacobs. Obviously, Canada and the oil sands work is going to be challenged because of the price of oil and the price of getting oil out of oil sands out of the ground up there. But that does not mean that the market has completely disappeared, and that good projects are not going forward, and they are. It's certainly going to be not as strong as it's been for quite some time. In U.S. shale oil business, as you all know, the companies are blowing their horns and moving their resources to where there's more ROI -- as to basins, Permian Basin as an example and the Bakken, but that overall business is shrinking a little bit. But in the midstream, the Middle East and other places in the world, there is still spending going on. Certainly not robust, but not a 0 by any stretch of the imagination. In the refining marketplace, that's a little bit more mixed. There definitely continues to be projects that are focused on improving the overall effectiveness and productivity of individual refineries around the world for some of our major clients. Those projects, some have been delayed and some have not been delayed. Obviously, each one of our clients are going through a lot of examination of their capital expenditures pretty much as we sit here today. But there is still a lot of very good ROI projects in the system associated with refining that are out there, and we're involved in, and we certainly expect them to continue. When you look at areas like ISA 84, which is the process instrumentation-driven safety upgrade. A large amount of money needs to be spent in the billions of dollars over the next few years. We built a strategy in advance to get after this marketplace, and that strategy has translated into some very nice wins already in this quarter. So a very good marketplace for us. And of course, our old sustaining capitalization strategy is always there in these refineries, although we’ll pull back some. We'll need to continue to spend money in the sustaining capital, and we'll be well positioned around the world to get after that. The chemical marketplace, certainly, in our view, remains overall very strong. The impact of the oil prices, the compression of the naphtha price to gas, to natural gas will certainly have some impact on the -- potential impact on the ethane jobs and potential spinoff projects like methanol, et cetera. But overall, the generic chemical marketplace is -- remains very strong in all the areas where Jacobs plays. This has been a market that we have won a number of major projects, some of which we've released, some of which we're not quite free to talk about. And this first quarter has been a big part of the overall sales success that we've had. So I don't see that necessarily changing. There'll be some ups and downs and some starts and stops and projects get reexamined, but overall, that market will be strong for the rest of this year and into the next year. So overall, I'd have to say, I'm pretty darn bullish. And I would just want to point out one other thing. I mean, this growth that we've had over this year -- over this quarter has been completely organic in nature and not impacted by any acquisitions at all and so -- which makes me even more bullish about where we're going.