Craig L. Martin
Analyst · KeyBanc
Thank you, John. Beginning now on Slide 7, just a quick review of our growth strategy. It doesn't change. It hasn't changed. We continue to be committed to our business model of being relationship-based, being local to our clients and diverse in the markets, both domestic -- our multi-domestic strategy and through the focus on multiple markets. We're going to continue to leverage our cash position for strategic acquisitions, and I'll talk more about all of those things later in the discussion. The thing I want to focus on here is our ability to continue to drive down costs. We had an excellent quarter from a cost control point of view. As you know, we were very disappointed about cost control last quarter, but we have recovered nicely and feel pretty good about our ability to continue to control costs going forward. That puts us in an excellent cost position just at the time when margins broadly are improving. We're seeing nice improvement in margins in the private sector. The public sector continues to be more price-sensitive than ever, although that's good for us. But of course, the margins have always been stronger in the public sector, and they continue to be good margins going forward. So overall, I think our cost position is a positive in terms of our outlook. Turning now to Slide #8. This is our relationship model. We've showed this to you in different forms at different times, trying to help make it clear how the process works. But it really is a function of long-term relationships creating value, which creates repurchase loyalty, creates a stable business for us that we can then grow, reinvest in the business and have this sort of virtuous circle of continuous improvement. It is different than many of our competitors, most of whom follow a big events kind of model, many of whom have a substantial portion of their business in the lump sum turnkey arena. As you know by now, I'm sure that's just not the Jacobs way. This model continues to work well for us. Repeat business last quarter was 91.3%, consistent with what we do pretty much every quarter. And we continue to get a significant part of our business, north of 75%, 80%, from preferred relationships with our customers. Turning now to Slide 9. I'm just going to spend a second here. You can kind of see how our diverse markets break out. There are 9 markets that we report on, although the one down in the corner, that's Pulp and Paper, Power, High Tech, Food and Consumer products is obviously a lot of the smaller submarkets or small markets. But it is a good level of diversity, and I think that's a positive for us in what is a very complex economic situation. Let me move ahead now to Slide 10, and I'll discuss each one of the sectors in a little more detail. So we have our Public and Institutional business. As you can see, it makes up just right around 40% of the company's revenue, made up of national governments, infrastructure and buildings. The markets in general in this area are improving slightly. The National Government business is improving, for us at least. We've had a number of major wins this last quarter and this year in the aerospace and defense arena, and we continue to do really well with the transformation of much of the U.S. aerospace and defense business into Multiple Award Task Order Contracts. We're able to take share in these situations from our competition, and that's contributing to maintaining a strong business in what has otherwise been a fairly tough climate. When you look to things like the MoD where we think there's a lot of growth opportunities for Jacobs, they've locked down their budget at $160 billion on a 10-year basis. They're very enamored with a government-owned contractor-operated business model, like Jacobs uses for the atomic weapons establishment, and it looks like that's going to lead to other major contract opportunities of a similar nature, where I think our reputation in the U.K. and our position on AWE could well lead to us winning some really nice long-term assignments, the kinds that Jacobs really likes to do. In addition, there continues to be a lot of environmental spending. There's a chunk of it still in the U.S., and of course, there's an ongoing program in the U.K. It looks like the funding in the U.K. has plus-ed up another $4 billion, so you get some sense of what a huge market that is when you think about a plus-up of $4 billion. Moving on now to infrastructure, another area where we see improvements, particularly in things like rail, water, utilities, telecom, all the areas that have in common that they're user-fee driven. And the user fees that are available there really can drive business, even in tough tax and economic climates, and we think that will continue to do so. Another good news item is the extension of the highway and transit bill. It's good news from -- predominantly from the stance that it creates real visibility and some certainty that will allow a number of states and localities to release projects and begin moving ahead with their spending because they know what's going to happen. And I think that will be a positive for our business as well. And then as you think about infrastructure more broadly, globally, we're seeing huge, huge investments in a number of different places. Examples of these are the Qatari rail program or India's ambitious plans to spend $5 trillion over the next 5 -- or 5 -- $1 trillion over the next 5 years. That's a staggering amount of money. It's more than they will spend. They just don't have the ability to move that much in the way of projects. But it is indicative of what probably would be a program close to half that, which over a 5-year period, means something like $100 billion a year in infrastructure spend in India. And as you know, we've gone to lengths to get position to take advantage of that. And then the Buildings business, that's a little more of a mixed bag. There are aspects of the Buildings business that we don't really participate within that are really poor, commercial office buildings, retail, both pretty tough markets right now. But the businesses that we like to do, healthcare, mission critical facilities, complex technical buildings, school programs as opposed to individual schools, all remain pretty strong elements. And I think they're all positives for our position in an otherwise kind of mixed market. Whatever the Affordable Healthcare Act means to businesses otherwise, it looks like it's going to add something like 30 million users to the health care system, and that's going to require a substantial amount of investment to accommodate those additional users. On the mission critical side, there are major upcoming procurements, and of course, the dot-coms continue to spend lots of money on mission critical facilities. And while none of them will let us say that we're working for them, there's plenty of opportunity there and plenty of work in terms of what we can do. And then the school buildings market, this number, again, kind of staggering, $271 billion of deferred work. We just finished a study for one school district alone that had $2.45 billion worth of improvements required immediately. When you look at the backlog side of this aspect of our business, you can see quarter-over-quarter, we've gotten some growth. We're still below where we were back in Q3 of '10, although we still had a lot of the residuals of the stimulus program in backlog at that time. So I think this there's -- while there's some way to go to get back to where we'd like to be here, we're actually performing pretty well in the public & institutional marketplace. Turning now to Slide 11, the process business. This is refining oil and gas and chemicals. Collectively, these are very robust markets. Refining's actually improving. We're seeing good crack spreads for the U.S. Gulf Coast and the West Coast, and the refiners tend to spend cash flow on improvements. So we're seeing a fair amount of projects and opportunities. Nothing huge, but that's okay. Our specialty is not the huge projects. It's the ones in between. So we think the U.S. refining market will be good for us. We also think that our expanding presence globally means a lot of positives for us in places like the Middle East, India, China. All of those places seem to have new investments, and there's substantial new refining investment both in Middle East and India, and Jacobs is especially well positioned with our strong reputation in refining to take advantage of that work. When you move on to oil and gas, it's strong. You might even say very strong. Our upstream business is growing. The construction momentum is starting to build. I think that's a positive. There's lots of activity up in the SAGD and oils sands market, and we continue to be the premier player in SAGD. If you noticed, the forecast is up from quarter-over-quarter. We're now seeing more like $30 billion in annual spend going forward, assuming that oil prices stay in the range they are or above. And then the unconventional gas world is another huge market opportunity for Jacobs. The CapEx as you can see is in the $150 billion to $200 billion range over the next few years or maybe a little longer than the next few. It's ideally suited to Jacobs. It tends to be a large number of small projects. It tends to be multiservice. By that, I mean it's not only process engineering but infrastructure engineering and buildings work and permitting, and it tends to have a local flavor. And so Jacobs is well positioned in all of those aspects to serve these customers. And most of our traditional competitors in the upstream world lack the buildings and infrastructure background and the local presence to be effective with these customers and these projects. And then chemicals it is just as good as it can be. We have these low-cost feedstocks driving tremendous growth. As we mentioned last quarter, 8 crackers announced, all with huge derivatives facilities associated with them. We know all 8 of those won't get built, but there is plenty of evidence that 3 or 4 will, and that will be something in the $12 billion to $16 billion of investment, 2/3 to 3/4 of which Jacobs will be able to access. We also see a significant investment in the Middle East and in Asia. And of course, India is also becoming a giant in the petrochemicals world, with huge investments both by the Indian oil companies and by companies like Reliance. This is a historic strength of our company. There's practically no project on the derivative side that we don't have good qualifications to do. And so we think that represents an ongoing tremendous opportunity for us as a company. If you look at the backlog trend, that's the backlog trend we like to see, steady up and up 17% year-over-year in the Process business, so that good news. Turning now to Slide 12. This is our industrial business, or at least we call it that for convenience. It starts with pharmabio. Our pharmaceuticals business remains pretty good. It's nice and steady. We are, as I've mentioned before, sort of the last man standing in the industry. So when these customers need projects done, we're the go-to party to do them. And there's a lot of investment going on in places like India and China in particular to serve those large domestic markets, consumers of healthcare products and pharmaceuticals. So we think this business is going to remain good. It won't be a big spender compared to some of these other industries by comparison. Mining and Minerals, also very strong. I've mentioned we found Mining and Minerals to be very conducive or connective to our relationship-based business model. The market remains enormous, and we remain a minor share player comparatively. We think there's tremendous opportunity for us to grow. We look at South America, we look at Australia, huge amount of opportunity there, a significant forecast for CapEx spend in both parts of the world. We're able to leverage China into these projects with significant cost savings. And again, we bring to the party something a little different than most of the competitors. We have the metals processing, mining and minerals background that most of our competitors have. But we also have strong capabilities in buildings and infrastructure that is also essential to these big mining projects, and many of our competitors are unable to provide that same level of capability. So we see that as a positive for us as we go forward. And then the last category, Power, Pulp and Paper, High Tech, et cetera, a mixed bag. Some businesses are pretty good. Pulp and Paper continues to pick up. We see expansion not only in our business domestically but also in places like India. The power market, slowly but surely, we're gaining share on a bootstrap basis, and we continue to be a real player in the U.K. power market, particularly in the nuclear arena. And then consumer products business, again, is being driven by consumption in the developing economies, and we're leveraging that with our alliances and our growth in that area. From a backlog point of view, you can see backlog's down slightly quarter-over-quarter. But it's up something like 60% year-over-year, which is really good growth in backlog when you think about it, especially since both quarters include Aker. Well, now moving on to Slide 13, our geographic diversity. I'll just take a minute to go through the markets and some of the key points. North America, I've already talked about the oil sands business, how strong it is and the chemicals market, the Natural Gas business. Those are all strong plays for North America. But we're also starting to see a lot of activity, particularly in rail. We were chatting here before the call started about freight rail in particular and the really significant increase we're seeing in that arena. Moving on to South America. This is for us still mostly a mining and minerals play. We see a lot of opportunity for our ongoing growth there, and we see a lot of opportunity to expand into what we think of as adjacent markets. So things like oil and gas, pharmabio, food and consumer products will all be opportunities for us to grow in South America. Moving over to Europe and Africa. The U.K. defense budget, I have mentioned and the power that it has. There's still pressure on the Infrastructure business, although we seem to be managing to take share and offset that pressure. So I'm very happy with our performance there. And then of course, Environmental Remediation and Nuclear businesses are both strong in the U.K., and we're doing very well in establishing our position. In the Middle East, it's largely for us a play with Aramco and the process business today, but interestingly enough, another place where the buildings businesses is starting to get a lot of traction and our infrastructure business is starting to get traction. So I think the Middle East will be a great growth opportunity for us as we go forward. Just in the 2 predominant markets for us, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the expected CapEx spend is something like $217 billion over the next 5 years. So the numbers are staggering. And India, I've talked about most of those growth areas, the infrastructure investment, the expansion in chemicals and the investment in the refining business. So India is going to be a good market for us. We are the dominant engineering company in India at least from a size point of view. It's still a pretty fractured market, so there's lots of additional opportunity for us to grow. Moving on to China and Southeast Asia. Our position in China continues to be one that we can leverage with these multinational customers. A number of good pharma projects, a lot of chemicals work are all driving our business both in Singapore and in China, and we continue to have a decent infrastructure business, particularly in Hong Kong, as well. And then finally, Australia, another significant area for mining and minerals and oil and gas. We are a decent-sized player in the mining and minerals area. We have a lot of opportunity to grow in the oil and gas side and still plenty of runway in mining and minerals as well. Again, this is one of those markets where the adjacencies of infrastructure and buildings and airports and all the kinds of things you really don't think about when you think about a mine, have high leverage for us as a company in growing our business. And we continue to have a good business in the national governments arena supporting the Australian Department of Defense. So that's the story on the markets. Moving now to Slide 14, acquisitions. Nothing particularly new to report here. We continue to see lots of good opportunities and, in fact, more opportunities than we can embrace. The market remains pretty decent in terms of pricing, notwithstanding what you may have seen with Shaw and CBI. And we think there'll be plenty of decent deals to do that are the kind that we like to do. There probably aren't any public sector deals in our radar. So that brings me to the concluding slide, kind of the commercial on Page 15, why us? And I think our story remains good. We're effective at controlling costs. We have a strong balance sheet and a cash position to drive acquisitions. We're diversified in terms of markets, geographies and services, and our relationship-based business model works well. So I think all of that means we should be able to continue to drive that 15% annual average EPS growth forevermore. And with that, I'll turn it back to Emily for questions.