Craig L. Martin
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. I'm on Slide 7 now. Just quickly reminding all of you about sort of our approach to the business, we are nothing if not constant about this. We continue to be committed to our relationship-based business model. We continue to believe that market and geographic diversity are important, and being local to our customers will be a critical factor going forward. We continue to have a strong cash position based on our belief that acquisitions will represent growth opportunities as well. Now I'll talk about all 4 of those things in a little more detail later on. And of course we continue to be focused on keeping our costs down. The market remains pretty competitive. We are seeing some improvements here and there in the market from a cost point of view. The public sector probably has more pressure on it than it's had in the past. The private sector seems to be stable and in fact, pricing may be improving just a little bit there. But our focus on keeping our costs down will remain unchanged. Turning now to Slide #8, I want to talk just a little bit about our business model and how it fuels our growth. Let me remind you a little -- of the difference between our approach and what we see in most of our competitors. Most of our competitors follow what we characterize as a transactional business model. They focus on big events, global competition, a lot of lump sum turnkey, they're out there with the French and the Chinese and the Koreans, and in a very competitive market for very large projects. And you can -- you hear that quite often in their calls like this one as they talk about the MIG prospects they're going to make or break a quarter or a year. Our model, however, is quite a bit different. We focus on high repeat business with our customers and a strong relationship-based business model. Something on the order of 70% to 80% of our business comes from long-term relationships and about North of 90% of our business, I think that number was 92.7% this last quarter of our business comes from repeat customers. Our business is dominated by a few core clients with whom we have very strong relationships, and our strategy is generally to grow our share of that customers' wallet or those customers' wallet, in order to enhance our business and increase our profitability, scale and growth. The chart that we've shown you here kind of gives you a sense of how all that works. So if you start at the bottom in the section named employees and you look at the key factors there, our systems and processes, our people themselves, our knowledge and understanding of our clients and our commitment to continuous improvement. All of that drives better performance by us and therefore better outcomes for our clients. As they get better outcomes, they trust us more, they're more willing to have long-term relationships with us, they're more willing to expand their share of wallet. And we get that repurchase loyalty that's so valuable to us. That drives good, steady profit growth. And we hope that drives then investor loyalty and a strong belief in our company, supports the financial strength that we need, and allows us then to reinvest in that area at the bottom of the chart there. And we get what we think of as kind of a virtuous circle in our business that let's us continuously grow that business with our customers. And in the long run, we think that's going to prove to be a very good model, one that will produce some very good results, including that compound 15% growth that we talk about. Moving on to Slide 9, you can see the market diversity. This represents the revenues for the trailing 12, pretty good spread. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this chart because I'm going to break this down into individual charts coming up, but you kind of see how our business divided across the spectrum of markets this last quarter -- sorry, for the last 12 months. So now moving on to Slide 10. And we talk a little more specifically about that part of our business that we characterize as public and institutional. That's National Governments, Infrastructure and Buildings. But let me start with the National Government's business. We see that business right now as pretty stable, actually. There's a lot going on there, there's lots of room for uncertainty, but what seems to be happening in overall terms is generally okay for us, not great. We're not suggesting this market is growing rapidly or strong, but we see every reason to think our position will remain good. There's lots of work in the information, communication technology area. Things like cyber security are quite strong, it's an area where Jacobs has developing strengths and an increasingly strong position. We see some pressure on the RDT&E market, which is a big part of our business, however there is an awful big focus, if you listen to Secretary Panetta's remarks or read them, there's a big focus in supporting technology in the Air Force and Navy. Those things will probably drive RDT&E investment and that may be very good for us. Now there's also this shift to sustainment. We think that requires quite a bit of work that we're very good at doing, end-of-life extension kinds of evaluations, testing and scientific technical analysis is a strength of our company, and there's every reason to think that business will be strong as well. We talked past about these MATOCS, that's multiple award task order contracts and the opportunity that, that represents us to grow our share. We're seeing that opportunity work for us and that we're able to penetrate markets and geographies in the U.S. for our federal customer that might have been closed to us in the past and to take share in those markets. We're being attacked in the same way but at least so far, we are be able to hang on to more work in our existing, incumbent situations, and take significant chunks of the other incumbents where the net seems to be a positive, and we think it's going to continue to be a positive. I don't want to ignore our environmental business here, it's still a strong part of our National Government's business and that market has a lot of activity in it. Certainly in the U.K., the nuclear decommissioning agency, $140 billion worth of work to come, spending about EUR 3 billion -- or $3 billion a year. The DOE spend in this market is also up, it's up about 9% since fiscal '10. Based on what we're hearing from government, it looks to me like environmental cleanup will continue to be an area where there's good opportunity and Jacobs is well-positioned. So overall, the National Government business is stable and I think our position's pretty good. Moving on to infrastructure. We characterize that market as improving. Highways remain soft. We think they'll be a transportation bill here fairly soon, that may help a bit. But overall that market -- the highways business is getting better, little by little. The strong markets are aviation, transit, rail -- all the things, water, wastewater, telecom that are fueled by user fees. It's a strength for us as a company and we see a lot of activity there. We're well-positioned to take advantage of those businesses. So we think infrastructure in those areas will represent a growth opportunity for us. And of course, alternative methods of funding, design, build, public-private partnerships are also growing in significance. Jacobs' very low-cost position relative to our competition in the infrastructure arena is a real advantage to us in those things. We're quite good at doing low-cost engineering work that results in lower cost projects, and we expect that to continue to be a positive for us as a company going forward. Moving on now to buildings, that's another business that we see as improving. Particularly the nonfederal arena. So things like education and healthcare that have very strong demographic drivers, quite good for us. In addition, the whole area of what we call mission-critical facilities: data centers, cybersecurity facilities, command-and-control facilities for the government, are all very strong. The KlingStubbins acquisition which seems like it's ancient history, but frankly it was only a couple of months ago, is hugely positive for us in that area, tremendous strength in supporting that area of our business. So in addition to just being a straight-up accretive acquisition like most of our acquisitions are, they've really put us in a preeminent position in these high-tech design and construction management markets. And then the federal climate, as it goes forward, is offering new opportunities as well. There's significant opportunities in things like the sustainment of existing facilities, dealing with lowering the energy cost of federal facilities, and the company's very well-positioned to take advantage of those things as well. So the public and institutional markets certainly aren't as strong as some of our other sectors but it is a very, very solid business for us and we expect it to continue to be solid going forward. Moving on now to Slide 11. The markets we characterize as industrial. I'll start with the PharmaBio. Now the story here, we see continuing investment by our pharma clients in emerging markets. They clearly have lots of products that are needed in places like China and India, and they're investing to manufacture there. Jacobs has the good fortune to have both a presence in the countries of choice from an investment perspective, as well as strong relationships with these customers corporately, and a strong know-how based in the PharmaBio market. All of that's leading to a significant business for us. Steady might be a little understatement, I think it's probably a little better than that. And we really continue to be the last major player in the Pharma industry with significant capability, and I think that also bodes well for us. So I'm a little more upbeat about PharmaBio than I might have been even 90 days ago. Mining and Minerals remains very, very strong. The demand for raw materials, particularly in the emerging markets, is driving new investments, particularly strong in Australia where we're well-positioned. I'll talk about that in a minute. Copper and gold are particularly strong and those happen to be our strengths as a company in the Mining and Minerals area. So that's a positive. We see about $85 billion, $86 billion of investment in the next year from the top 10 players in the mining industry. So it's a huge market. And there are segments of that market that are relatively untested by the majors. Things like continuous presence, opportunities, the ability to not only do the Mining and Minerals processing work, but to the support infrastructure that goes with that. Fairly unique to Jacobs because of our market diversity. We think those are also going to drive significant growth opportunities for us. Obviously Aker now has a much larger resource base. And so we're able to present a more capable combination of resources to our customers. That also is driving growth. And this set of customers resonates well with our relationship-based business model. We really like what we see so far, and the sense of loyalty that we see in those customers, and we think that's going to be a positive for us as well. So very bullish on the Mining and Minerals business. Moving on now to the other category, which is a mix of a bunch of important markets for us. Now let's try to work through each of those in turn. Pulp and Paper is, as I think I've mentioned in the past, very active in higher-value products, it's very active for us in particular. Again there are few players left in the industry. So while the aggregate CapEx is not large, our share of it is getting larger and we're pretty happy about that. The Power business -- and I don't really think of Jacobs yet as a power player, is starting to generate a fair amount of work for us. We get a lot of what I'll characterize as supporting cast work. All sites and utilities, substations, the sort of things outside the power island that drive the Power business. And we are increasingly developing a position in nuclear new build, particularly in Europe and most specifically in the U.K., that I think is going to be a positive for us as well going forward. High-tech spending, mostly that means semiconductor, is up with selected clients that are particularly important clients to Jacobs. We expect that market will be good for us for the next few years based on their forecast spending. And then consumer products market is another area where we're seeing a lot of activity in emerging markets. Now that customer set is very prone to the alliance model, they like the way Jacobs approaches things. And we think that's going to be a good business for us across the emerging markets as we go forward. So overall, the industrial sector of our business is a positive. We're doing pretty well in that arena. Moving on now to Slide 12, that's the process area made up of chemicals in the oil and gas business, both upstream and downstream. Let me start with the downstream part of the business, refining. We're seeing increased spending in North America, a lot of that's for environmental and efficiency reasons, but also we're seeing activity that's related to reconfiguration as the crack spread on distillates is quite a bit better than the crack spread on gasoline. We're continuing to see work related to changing crude sites. All across the world, crude is getting sour-er and more viscous, and so many, many refineries are going to have to be reconfigured. There've been a bunch of closures of minor refineries, smaller refineries which actually is good for our customers. Where we work, we're in a bigger refineries where we expect long-term, our relationships will continue to produce lots of good, small project work, as well as a few bigger projects. And then of course in places like the Middle East and India, we're seeing a tremendous amount of activity, and I'll talk more about that when I get to the geographic discussion. The Oil and Gas businesses is very strong. For us that's onshore gas and the oil sands. Oil sands are just huge. The numbers are so big and people can't seem to get their hands on them. I've seen estimates from sort of a low $18 billion of CapEx next year -- this year '12, to as high as $22 billion. And I've seen forecasts that are up anywhere from 10% to 25% in '13. Certainly, we see a lot of CapEx activity out in the '13 timeframe as these projects go into construction. We're still pretty solidly in the earlier phases of most projects. Although we expect a few of those to go into the construction phase in '12. Our onshore presence with our core clients continues to be a area of strength for us. This is mostly related to the Gas business and shale gas specifically, shale oil to a lesser extent. We have tremendous strengths in those areas and we have the geographic diversity that onshore gas requires. So overall, we think that's also going to be another plus for us. So we see that market as a very strong market going forward. And in the chemicals markets, it's also very strong, probably the strongest it's been in more than a decade, and you can start to see that in the revenue growth that the chemicals represents in our totals. The shale gas activity is driving a big supply of natural gas liquids and a low-cost feedstock for chemicals investment in North America. Jacobs' strengths tend to be in high-value chemicals, another area where we're seeing a lot of activity. Those strengths were improved with Aker. And so the whole area of high-value and specialty chemicals are strong, we have a global presence to support that, and we're going to see we take a lot of investment in that area. I'll talk again about that a little bit when I talk about the geographies. So the Process business is another area that we're really very positive about. If you kind of summarize the 3 sets of markets or groups of markets, public and institutional is steady, maybe slightly improving, industrial is clearly a strong market and the process side is very strong. So overall, as you think about our historic 5 cylinders out of 8 conversation, we're certainly in that position today. Let's move on now to the slide, Geographic Diversity. I think that's Slide 13. And let me just start by talking about North America, we've already talked about the oil sands, tremendous growth. We think that in North America as well, we're going to see a lot of activity. And I think we heard that in the president's remarks in the area of cybersecurity, and the whole sort of technology area related to where our government will invest. Jacobs is extremely well positioned in that area. Infrastructure is showing signs of improvement in North America, particularly things like utilities work. We're seeing a nice uptick there. There's going to be a tremendous boom in chemicals in North America as well. There've been $10 billion worth of ethylene projects that have been announced for the Gulf coast. That will drive huge investment over the next few years, and CapEx forecast for U.S. chemicals is expected to be somewhere between $25 billion this year and $35 billion, 3 to 4 years out. So that's a stronger Chemicals market in North America and we've seen in a very, very long time. Moving on now to South America. We are a major player in the Mining and Minerals market there and we're seeing lots of growth. Interesting enough, we think South America represents a very significant refining opportunity. There is something on the order of $80 billion worth of refinery projects that have been announced in Latin America. Our increasing geographic presence and our historic strength in refining, I think, gives us a tremendous position to take advantage of that expansion. So I think you'll see more of Jacobs in Latin America, and I think you'll see some really positive things to come in there. There are clearly emerging markets in places like Brazil, for PharmaBio and Food and Consumer products. That's where most of the population is, that's where a lot of interest for those companies goes. And we're working to be positioned to help those customers be successful in that area. Moving on now to Europe and Africa, kind of an odd combination I know, but it's the easiest way to talk about them. The infrastructure spending is under pressure but we've done, I think, as a company, a particularly good job of positioning in the right places. And we are doing well in terms of our relative share in the U.K, in the Infrastructure business. There are some bright spots in Europe in terms of energy, nuclear and defense, and we're taking advantage of those. On the Oil and Gas side, it's largely sustaining capital kinds of work, which again, as we know, plays to Jacobs' strength. And then we have our relationship with OCP in Morocco and that relationship remains very, very strong with very solid investment as we go forward in developing that business. And then we do see some emerging opportunities in the mining industry in Africa, particularly South Africa, we'll see how those develop as we go forward. Moving on now to the Middle East, just a huge opportunity for Jacobs in terms of the process end of the business. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, just between the 2 of them, have a $220 billion program over the next 5 years. Whether all that gets spent or not is always the question, but we are very well-positioned in particular, in part, because of our localness and our ability to execute work In-Kingdom, that's becoming a very key differentiator. GES plus remains a strength for us. We're still one of the only 2 contractors. We see that as an ongoing opportunity. There's a lot of activity there and then of course, our traditional buildings and infrastructures business are also significant growth opportunities in the Middle East. So we think the Middle East is a really positive engine for growth for Jacobs going forward. Moving over to India, we've been very successful with the CES acquisition. Lots of activity around wastewater, ports, airports, the entire business of infrastructure in India. India has announced a $1 trillion 5-year plan for infrastructure. It's highly unlikely they'll actually spend all that, but it does mean there'll be lots of project activity in India. We continue to grow nicely in our historic markets in India: chemicals, oil and gas, refining. We have big, big programs coming from customers like Reliance, where we think we'll be successful as well as Indian Oil, who's committed to spend something like $75 billion to expand their refining capacity by 2.5 million barrels over the next decade. Our position in India helps our business overall as well as it continues to be an excellent resource for low-cost engineering services, or what we would call high-value engineering to support our expansions in Asia as well as our customers in the developed world. Moving now to China and Southeast Asia. We have the scale and leadership today in place, in those places to address our core clients as they invest. We think that will represent real growth opportunities. I've talked about Pharma, but also the Chemicals business in China in particular, as well as consumer products. All represent opportunities for us to see significant growth, and we have a strong position now in the key investment areas in Southeast Asia. I think there's opportunities for additional growth there from acquisition as well, and I'll talk about that in a minute. And then finally, finishing with Australia. Australia continues to be a huge Mining and Minerals market for Jacobs, and we're doing extremely well there in terms of taking market share and positioning. I think we'll have really good growth out of that business in Mining and Minerals. There's also significant heavy process activity and we, right now have a very small share of that. So I think there's another area of seeing good growth for us in that regard. And of course our National Government, Defense, Project Management business in Australia also seems to have some pretty good legs and we think we'll see some additional growth there as well. So that's kind of where we are from a geographic diversity point of view. Moving on now to Slide 14. Just a little history on our acquisitions, as you can see, we've done a lot of those. We continue to believe we do them pretty well. As we look forward, the areas that are getting a lot of focus for us are China, Australia, Brazil. The markets are oil and gas and mining. IT particularly things in the tech higher cyber side of IT. We continue to be interested in power, but we won't ignore niche market additions when they augment our business significantly. And of course, we're always interested in adding a new key in core clients. The acquisition pipeline remains very strong. We see lots of potentials out there and it's -- sometimes there's so many good things it's hard to choose which ones to focus on. And frankly, the other piece of good news in that regard is the pricing for acquisitions seems to be a little better than it's been in the recent past. So that's a positive as well. So let me finally go to Slide 15 in our commercial. Why Jacobs? We think we have a unique business model that drives client loyalty, opportunity and drives results. We have a diversification that we think will be important today and will be even more important going forward, whether it's markets, geographies or services. A great balance sheet which let's us take advantage of all those acquisitions and fund expansion. Our cost position is also quite good. We continue to be in a very competitive market overall, but we're in a position to take advantage of that and make money when money's there to be made. So with all of that, I'll turn it back to Roque for questions and answers.