Craig L. Martin - Chief Executive Officer
Analyst · Lehman Brothers. Please proceed
Thank you, John. Good morning everyone. We are going to take the usual time to talk about how we are going to continue to try to grow this business and keep that 15% growth rate in the long-term. There are five things we think we have to focus on. We need to remain committed to our business model, which we think is relatively unique in the industry. We will talk more about that in a minute. We need to continue to diversify our market and focus on those markets that represent real opportunities for growth. Again, I will talk about that a little more in a minute. We need to continue to have a multi-domestic strategy, we think being local to our customers continues to be very important to our position in the marketplace, as I think we have talked a lot. We are not interested in so much in the big events as we are in the long-term local businesses. So, we are going to continue to focus on that multi-domestic strategy. We are going to grow in the Middle East, for example, you have heard about our acquisition of Zamel & Turbag ZATE, which we think we will begin to get us a real presence in Saudi Arabia and grow that business. We are making slow progress in Asia and we think we are going to continue to expand our base of operations there and grow in additional countries across Asia. We are going to continue to make acquisitions, it's a central part of our growth strategy or it has been. Our focus continues to be largely in the infrastructure and oil and gas arena where as we think have the most opportunities for growth and consolidation. So that will be an area where we will continue to focus probably focusing more on opportunities in Europe and Asia and the Middle East than on the US for the time being. As we complete the integration of acquisitions like Carter & Burgess we will come back to US and continue to expand here as well. And then we always talk about driving down costs. We think it's a critical advantage, particularly when this market goes away. We know this positive marketplace is great for all of us but it won't last for ever and companies that can control your costs and position themselves to be cost effective in the down cycle do better in the up cycle as well. So, let's talk a little more now about our relationship based business model, I am now on slide 8. Remind everybody of what we call the industry model there on the right side of the slide. For the most part our industry continues to focus on events. Now, in today's market those events aren't so much lump sum turnkey, but there is still events, big projects and far away places are a bit the dominant mode of the work for most of our competition. They also do discrete projects and they continue to have some preferred relationships and those pieces of the pie vary depending on the market climate where it's the big events that drive most of the players in our industry. We continue to be focused in the opposite way, preferred relationships are our basic approach. We get about 80%, 75% to 80% in any given quarter of our business from people within we have long standing preferred relationships. We got great links to be sure that we resource for those customers over any other opportunities that might be out there. So, where our priorities to serve our long-term customers make sure they are satisfied and we think that will help us not only in this up cycle, but it will also help us to be strong in a down cycle when and if it comes. Well there is no if, it will come. We will continue to do discrete projects in an effort to find additional preferred relationships and there may be the occasional event that makes sense for us as a company, but they are likely to be [inaudible] between. Moving to slide 9, we also continue to try to diversify our business and have a broad spectrum of opportunities that we can work on. We continue to think that not all these market cycle together and that having a diverse group of markets we serve we're helpless. Let me take you through kind of each of the markets and how each market is performing today. I'll start with refining. It is a very, very good market as we sit here. If you look at just announced projects, announced CapEx in the refining area and talk about CapEx first. The big oil and gas companies, the big refineries I should say more specifically have announced a $30 billion a year CapEx spend and so there is lots of money flowing into refining. We have got lots of drivers for that, capacity expansion is clearly a driver, there is also a fair amount of environmental regulation that is driving refining spending. The MSAT II program, the non-road loads offer [ph] diesel, the prospect of loads offer green fuel bunker, all are driving a lot of potential CapEx in refining. Moving to upstream oil and gas, big, big, big market. Again if you take just the major they have announced an annual spend of about $80 billion in upstream oil and gas. It looks like a terrific mark for us and you will recall we are still a very small player in that market. So, we think it is a very significant opportunity to take market share as well and grow our business. And in the chemicals business, there is good investment in the Middle East and Asia, some investment in North America and Europe, and so it continues to be a good steady market. Probably it doesn't have quite the energy behind it in terms of growth that oil and gas, and refining do quite a good business overall. When you look at overall CapEx released three businesses, there is about $590 billion of announced projects, a $115 billion or so in that oil sands, $475 billion in refining and chemicals. If you weighed all that according to what our consultants suggest is the likely project, there is still something like $200 billion, $195 billion in that range of announced projects in this business. So, we think this part of the diverse group of markets we serve is going to be pretty robust for a while yet. Moving on around the wheel, pulp and paper high tech, food and consumer products that are other category, it's other because there is nothing going on. There is not good business there... there is, but the growth prospects there is just not very strong, there is not just a lot of activity that’s going to drive a major increase in our business as we go forward. But it does keep several thousand people busy and we love it for that reason alone. PharmaBio, about 9% of our business right now is steady, it continues to grow although it's not as strong as it has been in times in the past. We have had a good spur of growth over the last year or two, but it looks to us like it's going to be a little slower going forward and not quite as active from a project perspective, may be as has been. Part of that I suspect to being driven by the election issues, but it will be a good business for us regardless. Just maybe not as strong in terms of growth perspectives as it has been. Moving to National Governments, you’ll recall that's really two kinds of business for us, research and development, time topic [ph], and technical engineering work, a very good business for us. We are getting steady, steady growth out of that business. We are kind of uniquely positioned, is one of the few services only providers to that industry, and it keeps us out of trouble and keeps us in a good position because we have always conflicted interest. We have a lot of prospect in the selection process. We are very optimistic about the possibilities of those projects being awarded the Jacobs. So we think we are in a great position to see continued growth out of the scientific and technical services side of our Government's business. On the environmental and related project side the more of the DoD side of the business, DEO side in the US, the ministry of the defense and the Nuclear Decommissioning agency in the UK. In the US, the businesses is at steady long-term business, we continue to see the environment clean-up work. It's a good solid business from that regard, probably not a big growth business, probably the number of opportunities are going to be pretty steady for the next few years, certainly not yet a dying business, but not one that we expect a lot of growth out of. But we are possibly accepting that as we can see a lot of activity related to base alignment and closure, both in terms of some clean-up work, but as much as anything pre-location issues and the projects that go with that. And we think you are prominently in that base relocation kind of work around the US, in a really good position we expect a good growth out of that. The UK business, one that we have been very excited about for some time continues to be a very exciting prospective market. There is still about $300 billion with the work out there to be done, but the process of awarding that work is doing more slowly than we expected and so that the business is not as robust at the tier one level as we might have liked. On the other hand at the tier 2 and tier 3 level the business is going very well, there is lots of activity and we are well positioned in that business so we continue to see good growth. We are also pretty excited about the atomic weapons establishment, what's going on there you may have seen our recent press release of our expanded scope in that regard. So, overall the national government's business looks to us to be another really robust market and good opportunities for Jacobs going forward. On the building side, remember that’s technical buildings, science facilities, jails, hospitals, healthcare related work that sort of thing. Another really good business for us we see lots of activity in science facilities. We see tremendous activity in hospitals and healthcare, that's a particular strength for Jacobs both in Europe and the US and given the overall graying of the baby boomers we think this is going to continue to be very strong market as well. In addition, US market for corrections, jails seems to be going through another cycle, it looks like we have run out of room to put prisoners in so got to build some more jails, so we could put some more people in them. That looks like a business that's going to be a little more robust in the next couple of years that has been in the last couple. So overall, the buildings market also looks to be a good market going forward. Finally, the infrastructure market, this is a market we have told you we are very high on for some time now and we continue to see no reason not to be very high on this market as we look forward. There is every evidence that infrastructure spending will remain robust through 2008 and 2009 based on what we can see. Part of that's driven by residual backlog of projects, part of it is driven by the fact there is just blatant demand out there, part of it is driven by the ageing of our infrastructure, things like the I-35 bridge problem or the St. Cloud bridge problem. All those things are factors that drive a demand for infrastructure that's not just unique to the United States. It's all over the world. And that market therefore in our mind remains one that is very, very robust for a very long time. And if you look at the evidence of how people feel about that, in the most recent data we have in terms of State Municipal Bond elections for infrastructure, 89% of those elections were approved and that's actually the highest level of last pin sets of elections. So it really is indicative that there is lots of support for the infrastructure business globally and we think that's going to remain a good business for us. Part of that is also because it’s our share business, no one has any significant market share. So the opportunity for Jacobs to take market share and grow its business is really quite strong. So, overall the markets I think are pretty good and we are diversified well in those markets. We will continue to look at other opportunities to diversify our business across the markets. Turning finally the slide 10, this is where we have our commercial. We do think we have a lot of things going for us that should make us attractive to the investor. We’ve got this unique customer driven business model. We are a diversified company. We are in a great market right now with a strong balance sheet, which should let us take advantage of that market in a number of ways and we believe we can continue to grow at 15% a year or more for evermore. So with that I will turn it back over to Kathy for questions. Question and Answer