Earnings Labs

ORIX Corporation (IX)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, May 16, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

If I may, we'd like to begin the session. First of all, I would now like to thank you for your precious time being with us. We're here now to explain the ORIX Corporation financial results for the consolidated fiscal year ended March 31, 2017. Allow me to introduce myself. I'm serving as the emcee. My name is Sahara, the Corporate Planning Department. If I'm going to take a moment to explain what you have received, you should have the 5 different sets of documentations, starting from the top, financial results and supplemental data earnings summary; the earnings release; finally, you should have the questionnaire sheet. In the first half, we'd like to have Mr. Kojima, the Group CFO, to explain the performance for the year ended March 2017. And following that, Group CEO, Mr. Inoue, is going to give us the highlights of FY 2017 as well as in current fiscal year as well as our ideas on working on the returns to shareholders. After that, we'd like to have questions and answers and we'd like to end the entire session at 1630 and I'd like to ask for your cooperation. Without further ado, I would like to begin the explanation meetings.

Kazuo Kojima

Management

My name is Kojima, Group CFO. I'd like to, first of all, express my appreciation to you for participating in ORIX's session on financial results by taking the time out of your busy schedule. First, I would like to briefly explain to you the results for our fiscal year ended March 31, 2017. Please turn to Page 1 of the handout. This is a business overview of our fiscal year ended March 31, 2017. Net income stood at ¥273.2 billion, down 5% year-on-year. As with the previous year, new record high was achieved. We accomplished our growth in 8 consecutive years, up 5% year-on-year. ROE was at 11.3%, above 10% level for 4 years in a row. In fiscal year ended March 2016, we posted gain on sales of a U.S. investment bank ,Houlihan Lokey, through IPO which greatly contributed to our income. On the other hand, in fiscal year ended March 2017, capital gain on sales of PE investment and Real Estate gain and sales gain, leveraging market opportunities contributes. We also achieved steady growth in existing businesses. Please turn to Page 2. The left-hand side, you see the segment profits. On the right-hand side, we have the segment assets and ROA. The -- this page shows a change in segment profit and segment assets for the full fiscal year ended March 2017. Segment profits totaled 200 -- ¥420,800,000,000, up 11% year-on-year; segment assets, ¥8,956.9 billion. Results of each segment is shown on Page 18 onwards of the handout. And let me briefly comment on each of them. Of the 6 segments, the Real Estate and Retail and others increased profit, but the corporate financial segments, the segment profit went down 10% at ¥38 billion. This was attributable to the reduction of the finance revenue from loans. And also,…

Makoto Inoue

Management

Thank you very much for your patronage. My name is Inoue and I'm somewhat overlapping. Fiscal year ended March 2017 was the second year after formulating our midterm plan. We posted a net income of ¥273.2 billion, achieving growth for 8 years in a row. ROE at the end of the year was 11.3%. Regrettably, on a year-on-year basis, growth was just one digit, 5%. But toward a net income target of ¥300 billion by fiscal year ended March 2018, we believe we're continuing to demonstrate steady steps forward. For your information, rating indicating our soundness, A, is continued to be maintained as targeted. In fiscal year ended March 2017, ROA of Operation segment was 4.9%; Investment segment, 5.1%; Finance segment, 1.8%. Our group as a whole kept 3% level. Although year-on-year growth was only 5%, in March 2017 as well, we executed new investments steadily. And we will continue to do so in the coming months as well. In the previous year, if I were to be more specific for each segment, environment and infrastructure, ¥90 billion; financial services, ¥60 billion; fixed income investment, including shipping loans, ¥190 billion; aircraft and property purchase, ¥220 billion; other PE investment, ¥80 billion. In total, about ¥600 billion was executed. At the same time, existing portfolio was sold off opportunistically, Real Estate related, ¥110 billion; stock sales, including PE-related ones, ¥80 billion; aircraft, ¥100 billion; service of bonds at the Life Insurance, ¥300 billion. Through these, gain on sales at ¥170 billion was posted. With regard to Life Insurance, a sale of bonds for ¥300 billion, this value is attributable to policyholders and it was posted as cash on deposits, but this was excluded from the segment assets. In Investment, a variety of new investments were executed both at home and abroad.…

Operator

Operator

I'd like to open up the floor for questions. Should you have any question, please raise your hand and please wait until a microphone is brought to you. We would like to just confine 2 questions to each and please state your name and affiliation before asking questions. Yes, the person in front?

Kazuki Watanabe

Management

Watanabe with Daiwa Securities. I have 2 questions. One, the -- with respect to profit growth, in 2018 March, a ¥300 billion target. The external environment, if that changes, you believe you can achieve that? And after achieving ¥300 billion, what would be the driver for further growth? In the materials, you say you would like to develop new business fields. What are they specifically? Two, regarding dividend. The interim dividend is ¥27 is planned. The net income is 10% growth. Compared with that, the growth is a bit higher. So what is the basis for calculation of this ¥27?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Perhaps it is impossible to achieve it. So for example, Mr. Trump, if he starts bullying Japan, if that kind of an external environment cannot be anticipated, so as we move on a cruising speed, ¥300 billion is not difficult to achieve. However, as you have pointed out, what to do after that, now things that we need to do this year is a ¥300 billion investment, plus ROA -- low ROA assets need to be replaced with higher assets or acquisition of new assets to achieve ¥300 billion. That's one. And after that, toward the next year, new investment need to be continued. After 2019, we should be able to enjoy a continued profit. These 2 have to be worked on in parallel. So what are the new businesses? Well, I can't tell you -- or I should say, well, frankly speaking, with respect to concession, a variety of projects are out there. However, the existing projects, when you combine them all, the -- that's less than half of the revenue coming from Kansai Airport. So the -- there are lots of competition over possible projects. Should we continue with concession? This is one theme that we're not discussing within the company. In aircraft and shipping, particularly shipping, it's hit the bottom, it's bottomed out. And fortunately or unfortunately, European banks, they have shipping loan portfolio and they want to sell them. And to this, we say we would like to look at our loan to value and pricing. If they can be bought, we will buy them -- we're buying them. So ROA, 3% plus, that kind of profit will be possible. And also, well orIX's past, if you look at the past 10-year history, I think you see it, we're very, very flexible. We go to higher ROA things and we don't go toward the low ROA things, so irrespective of place or industry. So on this point, well, after -- well, if you just see how we operated for 8 years after Lehman, we will go into new business fields. I hope you understand it this way. And also with respect to ¥27, I don't know if you remember, well, ¥23, our interim dividend last year, you were shocked. You said it was too low. We received such criticism and so we set it a bit higher this time. There is no basis for this. However, in a nutshell, the payout ratio is 25%; and also the return rate, well, 25%. And furthermore, should we be above that or should we use the money for new investments? Well, over the coming 6 months, in that -- at the time of the interim announcement, we'd like to set the direction and make an announcement and also with the numbers in the next 3-year plan. Well, in this respect, the -- when we make explanation about the half year financial results, I think there's going to be lots of questions, so please wait until then.

Operator

Operator

Let us now move on to the next question. I see a hand over there, on the lady, please.

Natsumu Tsujino

Management

JPMorgan, my name is Tsujino. My first question, again, are having to do with dividend. Well, the payout ratio has been growing by 2% to 3% in your history and you have reached the point of 25% right now. Well, maybe you can reach around 30%, but 30% are going to be -- it's going to be quite similar to the situation some -- there with banks. So you have some hesitations as for this particular point. But again, going forward, again, on -- what is going to be our latest philosophy and thought concerning the improved higher payout ratio? And concerning the dividend, furthermore and ¥300 billion, again, on the exit profit, again, of ¥100 billion, exit profit is not going to be generated in a stable fashion. But profit is rather difficult for you to produce some in stable profitability. If that's the case, the DPS target could be another idea for you to consider. So this is a question concerning the dividend. And my second question concerning pipeline, and as shown on Page 5, you emphasized that the pipeline seems to be quite thicker, so to speak. Again, looking at the pipelines, also the Asia, particularly, the Overseas segmentations and private PE investment, again, has increased for 2 quarters in a row; and also, in Americas and the renewable energy projects and actually coming up into the surface. So with these points in mind, I'd appreciate if you could expand on the specific areas and with a specific number on what are the results here, please.

Makoto Inoue

Management

Thank you for the questions. Well, concerning the payout ratio, we seem to be going bit by bit and, actually, improvement by now 2%, 3% in one shot. But now 25% and whether or not we're going to reach 27%; and after that, are we going to reach 30% in terms of the payout ratio. Well, actually, we have spent ¥600 billion in the previous fiscal year. And also, we -- excluding the gains from the fixed bonds and, actually, ¥250 billion and also including one-off and others, so put them together, actually, ¥600 billion was used for the new activities, new investment. And in the previous fiscal year, actually, intentionally, we tried to slow down. The reason for that is having to do with external factors. There are many external factors more than we had expected. For example, things that have happened was discovered in the U.K. And also, another unexpected thing took place in American as well. So effects on the forecast, rather difficult for us, luckily or unluckily. And thanks to President Trump elected, actually, our American company is actually -- and actually, it surpassed rapidly, going beyond $21 and becoming $30. And so I think we have to pay attention to all these factors. So what's going to happen to our payout ratio going forward? I'm sorry and I am repeating the same point and whether or not we're going to go beyond 25% in terms of payout ratio, please give us more patience. And in regard to the pipeline, well, this -- these gains on the sales is set to be temporary. But again, for the several years actually now, we're having capital gains incurred. And being honest with you, in this -- in the current fiscal year, the -- yes, pipeline or, actually, the…

Operator

Operator

Next question, please raise your hand. Please raise your hand if you have a question. Yes, this person.

Masao Muraki

Management

Muraki with Deutsche Securities. You explained earlier the ¥300 billion profit for this fiscal year. I would like to ask you about the basis. From existing businesses, the -- that's ¥200 billion, you said. In the previous year, the -- what sort of internal growth do you expect from which segment which category? And the remaining ¥100 billion, hotel and changing the investments, I think that's -- it was your explanation. In Q4, the Maihama Sheraton, I think you had a profit from that. And so you still have Okinawa. Well, in the past, whether you sell it or not, I think there was a talk about that -- a possibility about that. But now it was withdrawn. But the basis for ¥300 billion, you have to have a ¥100 billion profit. Well, if you generate a capital gain, then that's an earlier consumption of the future revenue. What kind of conversation took place in order for you to be able to achieve ¥300 billion? So broadly speaking, income and capital, please enlighten me on those fronts.

Kazuo Kojima

Management

Regarding capital gain, to some extent, well, based on the things that we ceased to some certain extent, we have come around that. So there might be upward revision, but right now, in the previous year, ¥160 billion capital gain is not expected, so the base profit needs to be increased. And so that's why we say ¥300 billion. That's our basic thought. With respect to base profit, 2-digit growth is what we say. Naturally, our capital gain would decline from the previous year somewhat, so 2-digit growth is necessary. Now against this backdrop, the greatest contributor would be Overseas, none -- ex-Japan business. The -- in terms of base profit, of course, this includes aircraft, so the gain on sale of aircraft is included in here, so ex-Japan. And also, the assets in the Americas in the previous year, we accumulated a great deal, so one driver would be an ex-Japan. And another thing that we expect to grow substantially is operations. Investment and Operations, we have explained this many times about this. But Environment and Energy is an area where there's going to be an increasing renewable energy. And also, concessions in the previous year, it was negative in the first quarter; but in this fiscal year, it will be contributing fully. And so this is another additional factor for growth of the basic profit. And also, in this fiscal year, there was a decline in maintenance. But the secondhand product, the reversal of that sale and also there has been accumulation of assets and that would contribute to increased profit. And so overall, ¥300 billion is the plan that we're considering. Have I answered the question?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Well and also hotels, rather than selling them now, keeping them would be better. That is a suggestion that I would like to appreciatively enjoy. Now I think it depends on the thinking. So the revenue from hotels right now, well, I think it's at the peak. But it will continue until the Olympics. And depending on the location, there might an overcapacity. That's a possibility. For example, Kyoto, probably there is still revenue that will increase. Okinawa, Chatan, I think you were talking about Chatan in Okinawa. With respect to Chatan in Okinawa, annex is being built. And when it's complete, we'll make a forecast for the future. And if it's peak, we will sell it. If it's not, then we'll hold it. The same for other hotels. I would like to preclude your misunderstanding. We're not selling it to -- just to get a capital gain, but the -- whether the hotel management business is peak. If it's a peak, then we will sell it. If we can expect profit contribution, we won't sell it. So that's the decision -- the kind of decision we will make, so please feel reassured. Have I answered your question? Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Let us now move on to the next question. If you have questions, would you please show your hand.

Koichi Niwa

Management

Citigroup Securities, my name is Niwa. Investment and ERM are the areas I would ask some questions. One, the -- for the fiscal year now ended, the ¥600 billion has been a number given to us. Again, you tried to be selective. But again, without being selective, what will be the normal investment numbers in terms of your true capabilities of making investment based upon the current situations? And the second question, concerning the ERM. Well, the risk control is very important. That's what you said in your presentation. At the same time, I think in ORIX, what makes ORIX like ORIX is doing something new? There seems to have a conflict. So which one of these areas are we going to put more emphasis and focus going forward in managing your business activities?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Well, concerning our capabilities to make investment, well, being honest with you, actually, it is going to be unlimited, so to speak. I hope you're with me. Right now, in the capital, we have right now, well, of course, if you like, we borrow money, I think we have no problems. Actually, we have problems by many people, actually, in the prism on the rent money. So when it comes to funding, we should have no major issues and challenges. And so with this one in mind, it is going to be unlimited. But again, we're going to aim at an ROE on the 11% or the 3% on a plus. So we're going to now look and we're going to be quite selective whenever we're going to put our money into whether or not depend on how we can expect those numbers, in other words, on the future value increase, for example, the ERM, the holding period and our earnings is going to be negative. And also, we keep losing money actually. We have actually stopped those projects. For example, in developing the projects, ROA is now going to be a negative with 3% and a 4%. Yes, sometimes, we're going to have those in the projects. And we, I think, ourselves, that we have actually slow down those inactive change. In other words, we're going to be quite selective in picking up on those projects which are going to give us on day 1 earnings opportunities and that is why we're enjoying a ¥600 billion. And ERM, actually, now we have history of 60 years. And actually. sales is given top priority. Back office and middle office actually are behind the sales. In other words, those guys are going to back up the salespeople. But FCPA and world…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And now we're approaching the ending time. So with this, we would like to conclude the Q&A session. Lastly, we request to you, we have distribute to you a questionnaire survey. Please fill that in. And with this, I would like to conclude the session to explain the financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2017. Thank you very much indeed for coming. Thank you.