Earnings Labs

ORIX Corporation (IX)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, May 13, 2015

$32.57

+0.18%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.46%

1 Week

+1.65%

1 Month

-2.92%

vs S&P

-2.48%

Transcript

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

We will soon start our presentation. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for coming to the ORIX presentation of business results for the fiscal-year ending March 2015. I'll be acting as moderator. My name is Huji [ph] with Corporate Planning. I'd like to ask you to confirm the materials. Four materials have been provided; the earnings report; the flash report; additional information and then the questionnaire. If you are missing any of the materials, please raise your hand. In the first half, Mr. Urata, Group CFO, will give you the overview of the results, and then the CEO, Mr. Inoue, will talk about the mid-term strategic direction. After that, we will have time for questions and answers. We plan to end by 4:30. We ask for your cooperation. We would now like to begin.

Haruyuki Urata

Management

Thank you very much for coming to ORIX presentation of the business results for the fiscal-year ending March 2015. My name is Urata. I'm the CFO. First, I would like to explain about the results of the fiscal-year ended in March 2015. First the overview. Net income was, as you see, ¥234.9 billion, 25% increase year-on-year. In the third quarter, we revised upward our full-year outlook to ¥215 billion, but the actual results came in ¥20 billion higher than that, so we achieved record profits and also sixth consecutive year of earnings growth. ROE was 11.5%, improving further from the 10.5% of the previous fiscal-year. In the fiscal-year just ended, we made new investment for profit growth in Environment and Energy, Investment and Operations segment and Overseas’ segment, and we took advantage of favorable market conditions and divested certain businesses and also sold assets in the real estate, aircraft and shipping. And in each of these endeavors, we believe we are able to have a success. Also each of the business segments are delivering steady profit growth, so we are making progress towards building a portfolio that can sustain growth. Concerning dividends, we raised the payout ratio to 20%, so the dividend per share is being increased by ¥13 from ¥23 to ¥36. We want to continue to use retained earnings for growth, and we want to achieve optimum balance between securing capital for investment opportunities and returning profits to shareholders. Next, I’d like to talk about the profit and asset trends by segment. In terms of segment figures, they are in the material Page 22 and onwards in more detail, so please refer to them as necessary. As you see, in terms of both profits and assets, we saw strong growth in the retail segment and the overseas segment.…

Makoto Inoue

Management

This is Inoue of ORIX. I’d like to explain to you in the mid-term strategic directions of the ORIX Group. First, I'd like to have the overview of the fiscal-year ended March 2015. To repeat what Mr. Urata said, we had more than 25% profit growth; sixth consecutive year of profit growth; and two years in a row, we achieved more than 10% ROE. At the end of the fiscal-year, we realized 11.5% ROE. In terms of our strategy of expanding non-financial business, Robeco, which is the core of our asset management business, steadily increased AUM and contributed throughout the year with stable fee income. Also they agreed with the Asian Development Bank to establish a private equity fund to invest in environmental projects, so we are starting new initiatives in Asia. In our mega-solar power business, by the end of March, we have secured projects with a total power generation capacity of 700 megawatts, already approximately 180 megawatts have started operations and the remaining projects will come on line. And most of them have FIT price of ¥40 or ¥36, so the impact of further reduction of the FIT rate and the control imposed on grid connection will be limited. Also we're cultivating new business areas. From 2009, we started the electricity power retail business. We provide high-voltage power for business users and we are steadily expanding our marketing area and the size of the business. Also domestically, we have invested in Hartford Life and Yayoi. And overseas, we have made new investment to Hyundai Logistics in Korea. And on the other hand, we have sold our shares in the Monex Group and the STX Energy of Korea. So we are conducting portfolio turnover, and we have placed orders for new ships for the future. And we are moving…

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

We will now take your questions. If you have a question, please raise your hand. We will bring a microphone to you. When you ask a question, please identify yourself, your name and affiliation, please. If you have a question please raise your hand.

Q - Natsumu Tsujino

Management

Tsujino from JP Morgan Securities. First question. Well, in terms of dividends for the first half, you indicated interim dividend payout. So what about the dividend for the second half? What's your policy about making the interim in the final dividend? Do you look at the full-year results, and do you make the final adjustment at the second half, or interim dividend and final dividend, are you going to have stable dividend payout? Is that going to be the emphasis? What is your intent there? That's the first question. Second question. Page 9, you talk about the use of capital. You say it’s more than 80%. But in terms of Real Estate segment, you have ¥100 billion asset decline expected, and in terms of net profit, ¥200 billion is to be accumulated. And so I think there could be more aggressive investment. So you say the employed capital ratio is more than 80%. So on one hand in the news, it's reported that in the U.S., you are trying to acquire large asset management company, and if that's the case, you have some goodwill generated. So in that context, what is going to be the impact on the employed capital ratio? Can you explain?

Makoto Inoue

Management

I'd like to respond. In terms of the interim dividend, we will be paying interim dividend, and at the same time, we don't show the annual figures and we show target for the three years into the future. It's a little difficult to explain, to be quite honest with you. Now ¥22 interim dividend. Well, we had 20% payout ratio in the previous fiscal year, and our intention is that we were aiming for ¥300 billion-plus in three years time in terms of net profit. And this year, of course we are not aiming for zero growth. When you think about it, this year we had ¥235 billion at the end of March and we are aiming for ¥300 billion, so there is still 60-some billion - ¥65 billion increase. So how to achieve that in three years? And we have no idea of achieving lower revenue and profits, so we put out ¥22. So when you probably multiply that by two, and you probably expect ¥44 to be the full-year dividend payout, we understand that expectation. Now maybe you don't think so, but maybe there will be some phase of adjustment or correction and there could be some issues. So we say that we need to maintain ¥22 at a minimum. So if the - well based on the interim results, we will announce the payout ratio for the full-year. That's what we’d like to do. And we have absolutely no intention of making a downward revision, because if we had any such idea, we cannot say that there is a target of ¥300 billion. So that is our policy. And in terms of capital. Hartford and Yayoi, we have made these acquisitions with large goodwill. Hartford, it's a negative goodwill. Our issue is - what we always have…

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Thank you very much. Let's move onto the next person.

Futoshi Sasaki

Management

Thank you very much. Sasaki with Merrill Lynch Securities. I have three points to seek your clarifications. Number one, about mega-solar projects. Within the next three years, you said that those projects will become fully operational. As you start to sell power, the generated power, the business conditions how it is lucrative or not, and you can check [ph]. And also three years from now, how much of profits do you think that you can expect as projects become fully operational? Number two about Robeco. You impound that it’s duly expanding I understand. What after all is the strategy which has been kind of the key to the successful fundraising? And also any prospect for the mandates in the future? So that’s question number two. And question number three, your communication on the western market. We understand that you are [indiscernible] income the prospect on the single year basis, on the western market. We understand that. The other companies may instead of on the core tier income that you have full year and the prospect would have forecast, that would give us further clues on the monthly basis. There are on the various ideas and ways to communicate in the western market. So I wonder what sort of ideas that you have in order to set that?

Makoto Inoue

Management

About mega-solar projects. Within three years, about 930 megawatts prospect for income, 180 megawatts operational already as of now. And on top of the capacity utilization, about 10% over-performance is against our initial anticipation. Of course our business in that case has never was ever so conservative. And based on the base and the power generation, that we understand that we have been able to generate 10% over and above the business case. So that has been pushing up the income that we enjoy. About ¥250 billion, that will be the outstanding balance investments three years from now in this area. Pre-tax, after-tax. I don’t think I am ready to show that. But ¥25 billion to ¥27 billion EBITDA and that is what we expect three years from now. This is assuming that the stable operations can be expected and then we will have that size opportunity and then we’ll go from there. Now your second question regarding Robeco in United States and also Transtrend, which is trend-follower fund management firm has been operating quite favorably and there is downtrend of the oil market. The return has been generated quite nicely which has been supporting the increase of the asset under management. However, right now the 57th is the ranking as of right now. These funds that we expect that there is going to be reorganization in these investment firm and the communities. If the 57th in size and that’s not enough, then we’ll have to make sure that it becomes much stronger and bigger, so that it can survive into the future. That’s what we are discussing and thinking. But there is a positive trend after all. According to the Morningstar rating, Robeco is one of the top five, meaning that through comparisons in Asia, in particular the Middle…

Futoshi Sasaki

Management

Thank you. A supplementary question about management targets. You keep saying the preservation of the single-A credit rating. Is that internal or external?

Makoto Inoue

Management

It’s external.

Futoshi Sasaki

Management

External. What do you mean to say is that right now?

Makoto Inoue

Management

The single A minus from S&P, BBB plus and therefore Moody’s. So S&P single-A minus and that’s the level that we would like to surely have stayed.

Futoshi Sasaki

Management

Thank you very much. I understand. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Thank you very much. Next question please.

Sachiko Okada

Management

Okada from Goldman Sachs Securities. I have three questions. First, you commented to the ROE of 11% to 12%, so what's the thinking behind that? The ¥300 billion profit is what you what to achieve in three years. When you achieve that? What would be the ROE or did you start from ¥300 billion and came up with the ROE figure, or did you have the ROE figure first? So what’s your idea about the capital efficiency, and also capital cost, or do you compare vis-à-vis capital cost. What is the thinking about that? Second question. In terms of the asset size, March 2018, Hartford Life asset will have declined. At that time, compared with the current asset size, what will be the change? There will be change in regulation of non-banks. And also the operating cash flow. This you're using instead of the base profit, and so will you continue to disclose this? I think that’s your intent but how is that going to increase, if you can explain please?

Makoto Inoue

Management

So this is just an image, ¥300 billion. We conducted simulation based on ¥300 billion and ROE three years from now. That will be a little lower than 12%. That is our target. If possible, we want to exceed 12%, but it depends on the condition at that time. So if things move at the current pace when we achieve ¥300 billion, we should be able to achieve ROE a little lower than 12%. In terms of our size, ¥11.4 trillion is what we have. That's too big is what I think. ¥10 trillion plus or minus is the right level. So if we suppress ¥10 trillion, then ¥300 billion would be the 3% ROA. That is what we like to target, but I think that will be quite difficult, but that is my target.

Sachiko Okada

Management

How about the cash flow?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Well, about your third question, operating cash, Page 4. So in our securities report every term we disclosed that, and that is just translated into this graph. So if you look cash flow from operating activities it’s divided into two parts into different colors. And if you analyze the past figures, you can see that it has been steadily growing. And so that part we think that trend will continue and show stable growth. That is what we think.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Next person, yes.

Masao Muraki

Management

Muraki with Deutsche Securities. Two points. Page 13 of your presentation materials, the historical trend of profits. Three years from now of ¥300 billion as you say. If you add that, then it means that long-term the profit expansion in the period isn't going to be what you're going to have. If for the three year period going to come, what are your assumptions in terms of external conditions? As you were talking about dividend and the payout, you said something about uncertainty mounting and the externalities in dividend and the decrease yes or no. I was wondering that ambiguity, that weakness are you hinting at your anticipation that that uncertainty in your externalities may grow or not necessary that? So that's question number one. The question number two on the retail investors, sort of long-term investors and remembering yesterday's press announcement, Toyota’s [ph] type-A shares, how the interesting something I liked that approach instrument. I think there is comment that made in that regard. And also Mr. Miyauchi said that one has to wait for three years investor before divested and we support that right. So that’s what your new chairman said. So what about the particulars from whatever type-A shares, or how the divesting period therefore voting rights. Are there any particular ideas or hints that you can give us?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Number one, shareholder policy. Our senior Chairman Mr. Miyauchi - I’m sorry I didn’t catch that. Maybe I was not listening, but anyway, basically we have no plans to issue that sort of shares type-A equity issuance and we are not thinking of. There is certain preferred and the distinctions, but we are not thinking from any type-A sort of instruments to be issued per se. Yesterday, the media announcement of our financial results that was made and I took to the podium and Mr. Miyauchi made comments. And I think what he meant to say is that the secretariat is continuing learn and investigate various [indiscernible] options, but we have not focused on any type in particular. And also on that external conditions in the three year period to come, simply put don’t know. Assuming that the current conditions will have to stay for the next three years then ¥300 billion, but you never know. One can never be sure that there is never going to be any other disruption such as the failure. So basically provided that everything will be as we see today in that ¥300, but one would couple of rounds of corrections in the marketplace that probably can give internal experiences from the past, but we should be able to weather that. So whatever sort of events or the European situation getting and anticipated whether U.S. rate hikes and the causing unanticipated realization of the downside, those the possibilities. Nothing is in our expectation. However having lived through the post-Lehman crisis period of natural conditions and how it has become much stronger, so even if there is some disruption to the markets such as the Lehman failure should occur again, we should be able extend it. We are stronger than we used to be. If you keep on expecting then coming up with whatever possibilities, then we will never be able to finish the planning process. So what we say today is that we assume that the conditions would stay as it is in ¥300 billion. I hope I am answering adequately. Thank you very much.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Next person please, over there in the middle.

Yusuke Yabumoto

Management

Yabumoto from Mizuho Securities. Two questions. First, in terms of the mid-term strategic direction, what's your emphasis? So what are going to be the deals that will emerge will depend on that, so it might be difficult to say at this time, but towards the ¥300 billion in three years. What will be the segment profitability direction? I know you said - you mentioned several focus areas. So what do you think is has the most potential, most promising, which segments do you think is more problematic? That's my first question. Second question, concerning the current business environment, so the March 2015 term that just ended, compared with one year ago, domestically or globally, which are - is it the situation that you can step on the gas and accelerate your activities. Is that what your view of the current situation?

Makoto Inoue

Management

In terms of promising areas, we have existing segments and without making any effort there is profit that will come from these existing segments. That's about ¥200 million. And then we have some additional profit from new business. And then there is the ¥20 billion to ¥25 billion EBITDA from the mega-solar, that's part of that. And so if we don't have new business, we will not be able to achieve ¥300 billion. So ¥200 billion or ¥220 billion, ¥230 billion from existing business. So the reminder we have to increase with new business. And I think it's the mission of the of the management to try to find that additional income. In terms of environment, it's mixed. China, we are wait-and-see attitude there. And it's interesting that China has worsened, but in areas other than a real estate. Well, money for real estate is now flowing into the stock market and stock market is now very strong. So PE that we're doing in China, we are doing exit-phase. So the environment overall, it's not unitary. It's not the same everywhere. For the U.S. real estate, there is a very big boom, especially for condominiums in Manhattan. Condominiums are selling at not hundreds of millions but the penthouse selling at tens of billions and being traded with cash and the Middle East and Russian buyers are buying that. And shale gas not so strong. So you have to look industry by industry or else you make the wrong judgment. So in terms of the environment, you have to look at the and analyze the industry environment and decide where to put your money in, which industry to invest in. So it's more difficult to make a macro decision. You have to look at it at an industry level. So for China, real estate may not be so good, but stock market is a very strong. Hong Kong, non-China business, IT-related industries strong, but the China real estate related business not so good. But then in terms of real estate companies stock prices are much higher than a year ago. So that's time to exit or sell. So that's how we look at it. So overall, the environment is not so bad. But there is a zero interest rate, that's been continuing, and there is a lot of short-term assets, current assets. And so based on the U.S. monetary policy, there is going to be a very big impact. And so we really have to carefully make decisions about investing and exiting. Thank you very much

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Gentlemen, now we're approaching to closing time, so the next one is going to serve as the final question. Yes.

Koichi Niwa

Management

SMBC Nikko. My name is Niwa. I have two points. Sorry to be a bit redundant, but number one having to do with your mid-term business plans. I'm interested in further details, to accumulate ¥65 billion additional profits. Those will be basically from new investments - through new investments, right? And is it possible for you to go deeper from whichever particular project or the segment, is it possible? And question number two. Short-term the conditions [indiscernible] and that’s also very useful. So what will be the range view that you have from the current fiscal year?

Makoto Inoue

Management

Mid-term strategic directions and plans. What I did say was that given our business model, we have finance, non-finance, retail, wholesale, overseas, domestic. So it covers a widely spend. And so accentuations depend on the nuances in each and every. So knowing that how to show more clearly and effectively, which has been a big challenge. So we always have been thinking ourselves as to the better means of communicating with you. But I did say was that the organic growth will 10%, 20% maybe it’s in that sort of [indiscernible] prospect which can be maintained by some but not by others. Life insurance, yes, more than 10% growth. With mega-solar or environment and energy, it’s not 10%, more than 20% in growth. Overseas, more than 20% as you’d expect. Automobile related, as you probably know there are the various asset sellers who are the M&A, so that rumors. Just by having our hands on the - a handful few, then that will mean sizable investment. If we are able to have one of that, then IRR 20% in five years and that has been the criteria that we have been applying over the years. If we do the ¥165 billion in three years time, it’s certainly feasible. There is no reason for us to think that it is not. So ¥234.9 billion, about ¥11. billion or ¥11.5 billion effect on the corporate tax and the payable. So it came towards all at once abruptly. So basically I think our thinking is that we preserve and to certain gross we aim at ¥300 billion. However as I keep in saying different chapters and different stages ups and downs, so when I say that constant double-digit growth, that’s something that once quoted, we would have to, meaning that in order to…

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Thank you. And with this, we close today’s presentation. Thank you very much for your attendance. The meeting is finished now. Thank you.