Earnings Labs

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, May 4, 2018

$8.29

-0.06%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital Incorporated, First Quarter 2018 Investor Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Tony Semak, Investor Relations. Mr. Semak you may begin.

Tony Semak

Analyst

Thank you Amber, and good morning everyone. Again, we really want to welcome you to the Invesco Mortgage Capital first quarter 2018 earnings call. I am Tony Semak with Investor Relations, and our management team and I are very delighted as always that you’ve joined us as we look forward to sharing with you our prepared remarks during the next several minutes before we conclude with our customary question-and-answer session. Joining me today are John Anzalone, our Chief Executive Officer; Kevin Collins, our President; Lee Phegley, our Chief Financial Officer; and Dave Lyle, our Chief Operating Officer. Before we begin, I’ll provide the customary forward-looking statements disclosure and then we’ll proceed to management’s remarks. Comments made in the associated conference call may include statements and information that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Securities Laws as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and such statements are intended to be covered by the Safe Harbor provided by the same. Forward-looking statements include our views on the risk positioning of our portfolio, domestic and global market conditions, including the residential and commercial real estate market, the market for our target assets, our financial performance, including our core earnings, economic return, comprehensive income and changes in our book value, our ability to continue performance trends, the stability of portfolio yields, interest rates, credit spreads, prepayment trends, financing sources, cost of funds, our leverage and equity allocation. In addition, words such as believes, expects, anticipates, intends, plans, estimates, projects, forecasts and future or conditional verbs such as will, may, could, should and would necessarily depends on future events are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and they involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ…

John Anzalone

Analyst

Good morning, and welcome to IVRs first quarter earnings call. Joining me to help with Q&A following my prepared remarks will be Lee Phegley, our CFO; Kevin Collins, our President; and Dave Lyle, our COO. I’ll start on slide three with an overview of our first quarter results. Our core earnings were $0.45 per share, which is down from $0.47 in the prior quarter, due primarily to higher funding costs. However, we are pleased that we once again comfortably covered our divided our $0.42. While core earnings remain strong, continued increases in funding costs could potentially pressure core earnings going forward. On a positive side, higher rates and favorable seasonal factors should work to lower our prepayments fees, which would support the core run rate. Book value ended the quarter at $17.16 which is a 6.5% decrease into March 31. However since the majority of the move occurred in the quarter, book value is only down about 1.5% since we announced the level during our last earnings call in the beginning of February. The decrease in book value is due to a combination of widening spreads on agency mortgages, along with the impact of higher rates. Away from agencies, credit spreads performed comparatively well in relation to other fixed income risk assets amidst the state of weakness during the quarter. Seasoned credit assets representative of our holdings are outperforming more recent vintages as expected to continue to exhibit a strengthening credit profile as they roll down the curve. While this is a challenging quarter for book value, the silver lining is that we have seen the reinvestment outlook improve with accretive opportunities available in agency mortgages and in pockets of CMBS. For example we are seeing hedged ROEs on 15 year fixed rate agencies at 11% and 30 year fixed…

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Tony Semak

Analyst

Amber, are you going to provide instructions for queuing up for Q&A?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question will be coming from Douglas Harter of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Thanks. Can you talk about – you mentioned John about your payups. Can you talk about kind of how those performed in the rising rate and you know kind of I guess how much more kind of payup you have on the specified pools and you know whether there is risk to that if rates go further?

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah, I mean we did – you know obviously payups are going to be correlated with rates in some respect. You know most of the pools that we have purchased recently you know have been lower payup type bonds under more current coupon and so we haven’t paid up as much. We’re not buying very high payup premium bonds, so we’ve seen a little bit of decrease there, but not significant. I mean I think we saw in spread widening was more just general mortgage spread widening. As prepaids flow, I mean our book is generally speaking prepaids slower than the market so I would assume that as speeds slow, you know our portfolio which is really consistent of either newer production, lower coupon bonds or very, very well seasoned specified pool, higher coupon bonds, I would expect those to slow equally if not more. I mean we may get a little pressure on payups, but you know the slowing speed is a big benefit.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Got it. And then a few other mortgage REITS have mentioned that they have kind of recently been looking at the kind of new production jumbos again or have purchased retain bonds there. Is that something you’re looking at sort of getting back into that and how do you view that opportunity today?

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah Dave, are you on?

Dave Lyle

Analyst

Yeah, I’m here. You know that is the opportunity in Jumbo’s, especially as supply picks up. Here in kind of recent months it’s something that we are always keeping tabs on and kind of engaging the economics of the trade there, so you know I think the answer to the question is yes. You know with potentially more supply comes potentially better economics and that is something – you know that’s one of the many opportunities that we could potentially get more active in down the road.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Got it, thanks.

Dave Lyle

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Eric Hagen with KBW. Your line is open.

Eric Hagen

Analyst

Thanks gentlemen, good morning. Please give my best to Jason. My first question is on leverage. It just looks like leverage in the credit segment has risen a bit recently. Can you just provide some color on I guess how you think about leverage in that segment going forward, especially given how tight credit spreads are. Thanks.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah Eric, thanks. Yeah, I would say that the tick-up in leverage really is a function of lower dollar prices on our bonds and in general sense. So we just have less you know assets or less – worth a little bit less and so obviously your financing is a mark-to-market so your leverage appears higher as rates increase. I mean that’s largely what it is. So really I think you know, if there is any difference between where it is on versus CMBS or agency, that’s really just a matter of the mix of you know where we find the best terms. So it’s not really any real decision to like lever the credit anymore or anything like that. I think overall like you know our leverage, we didn’t really move to make leverage higher. This is simply a matter of rates moving up.

Eric Hagen

Analyst

Yeah, yeah, no that makes sense, thanks. And then just a question on CPR’s, just kind of a technical question. I guess the CPR that you reported for the non-agency MBS, is that a collateral CPR or is that the runoff for your actual bond?

Dave Lyle

Analyst

Yeah, on non-agent – this is Dave. On non-agencies that is a collateral CPR. So it accounts for all voluntary prepayments, as well as the recovery portion of defaults.

Eric Hagen

Analyst

Great. Maybe I can press you just a bit on the prepaids for the legacy Alt-A segment and how you see that trending going forward.

Dave Lyle

Analyst

You know it’s a very seasoned book. It’s not nearly – the CRP on Alt-A’s is not nearly as sensitive to prevailing mortgage rates as newer production obviously and especially performing production. So we don’t expect dramatic changes. There is some sensitivity there obviously, so it will oscillate a bit and you will continue to have – you know faster prepaids are good on legacies obviously given the discounted basis. I think we’ll continue to see some tailwinds from you know further equity recovery in terms of borrower equity and the flexibility that gives borrowers to refi. So that should continue to support prepaids to an extent and you know offset some of the slowing prepaid effect of higher rates.

Eric Hagen

Analyst

Yeah, I guess the obvious follow-up question, my first one about CPR is just what is your actual bond, your bond CPR, I mean just given where you are in the capital structure and how we should think about the runoff in that portfolio going forward. Thanks.

Dave Lyle

Analyst

Yeah, you know I don’t want to mis-quote a specific number. I don’t have it in front of me. We disclosed you know a certain level of CPR detail in our filings, so I would check there, but overall in the book it tends to be quite a variety of assets that go into that number that we disclosed, but that number tends to be very low double digits.

Eric Hagen

Analyst

Yeah, great, thank you. That’s helpful.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Sure, yes.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your next question will be from Trevor Cranston with JMP Securities. Your line is open.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Hi, thanks. A couple of questions on the swap portfolio. I guess first I didn’t see the notion anywhere, so if you can give that, that would be helpful. And then second on the receive side, here in the press release you showed the received rate for the first quarter at 168 which is you know lower than where the three month LIBOR was throughout the quarter, so can you say how much of the swap portfolio is index to one month versus three month LIBOR. That will be helpful somewhat thanks.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah, I don’t have the exact notion amount in front of me, but that will be in our filing, so I’ll differ for there a bit. As far as what we’re receiving, its approximately half and half, three month and one month LIBOR.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Okay, that’s helps. On the notional would you say you know was there any meaningful additions since the…

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah, I mean we added, we did add hedges – yeah, we added about $650 million of hedges during the quarter and it’s up to $9.2 billion and we added another $800 million start that came onboard of support starting swaps.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Support starting, okay.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Right, so yeah, so it did increase over the quarter, right.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then second question here on book value with you know rates moderately higher again this quarter, can you give an update on where you guys are seeing book currently?

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yeah, it’s basically unchanged. It’s basically – so we’ve added swaps. Our interest rate sensitivity is leveled off a bit and agencies have settled down a bit also. You know spreads have been pretty well behaved, so we’ve seen book value remain pretty stable.

Trevor Cranston

Analyst

Got it. Okay, thank you.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Yep.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Speakers, at this point we have no further questions. I’d like to hand the meeting back to you.

John Anzalone

Analyst

Well, thanks Amber. We appreciate your help with the call today and we want to thank everyone who has joined us and as always, if there might have been a question that comes to mind afterwards, we’ll also like to help and you can reach out to us. So we really appreciate as always. Have a great day! Thanks everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, speakers. And this does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.