Richard King
Analyst · KBW. Your line is open
Thanks, Tony. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you joining for joining the call today. We are pleased to announce second quarter Invesco Mortgage Capital core income of $0.42. Core earnings well above the dividend of $0.40 were down modestly relative to the elevated first quarter $0.44, due to somewhat faster prepayment speeds, given falling interest rates and higher seasonal housing turnover. Management of interest rate risk is always a focus of ours and it certainly was in Q2 as rates continued to fall. As of the end of the quarter, the 10-year treasury was 80 basis points lower year-to-date. Since the recession in 2008, 2009, we’ve seen a pattern emerge regarding interest rates and credit spreads, where global events drive interest rates lower, initially causing credit asset prices either to fall or just lag as their prices can’t keep up the pace with the improvement and treasuring of some bonds. Then rates stabilize and eventually go up modestly for a time. And in that time period, credit assets dramatically outperform as their prices catch-up with rate rally and then some, then the process repeats. As this has played out multiple times now, you should notice that credit assets have tempted to lag investment-last [ph] as rates fall and recover more quickly with each success as many crisis. The demand for high-quality U.S. credit assets is strong in a tightening trend and we expect that to continue. The assets that IVR owns are attractive for those looking for additional yields that are seeking quality. Our portfolio has aged and now benefits from several years of appreciation in underlying property values. And as such, these securities valuation is set to become much more resilient to shocks. The adverse market reaction to the UK referendum was very short-lived indeed. And we continue to see our book value performance improve post the Brexit vote. We are well aware that our book value has tended to do better, when rates are stable or raising, so much of our focus this year to date has been how to better deal with falling interest rates. We’re well prepared by having added 15-year agency mortgage backed securities and some five year treasuries, in an effort to maintain a positive duration. And that worked up quite well. Despite what appears to be a rebound in U.S. economic growth after an anemic first quarter, we think that rates are likely to remain in a trading range, as overseas demand for U.S. assets remained strong. We’re getting much of the impact of stronger domestic growth, and slightly higher but still sub-2% inflation. Book value per share improved 3.3% in Q2, largely due to declining credit risk premium over treasuries, or said in other way, spread tightening. I mentioned on our Q1 call that our book value improves when the spreads improve. And that we think in a slow interest rate environment, spreads are going to end up tighter over time. The longer the market stays at a given range of interest rates the tighter spreads get. That is an accurate description of the environment we are in. Just through Q2 however, our economic return and the change in our book value plus dividends was 5.7% return for the quarter. And it was 4.3% year-to-date through June. Given these comments that I’ve been making, you can probably agree that book value is continuing to improve. And we estimate it’s gained about another 5% not including income, and that puts our book value approaching $18 per share. Our use of cash and the increased capital, due to asset depreciation, in the second quarter was used to expand our exposure to the 15-year Agency MBS, which I already mentioned, and to reduce leverage in the agency portfolio in the process. Our agency leverage dropped a whole turn in Q2 from 9.7% to 8.6%. We also funded $13 million of a CRE loan commitment - the commitment is $25 million and we did that out of cash flow in the second quarter. John will go into more detail about our high-quality portfolio. But, right now, let’s turn to Slide 4 in the presentation and look more specifically at the components of the change in book value. As I mentioned, credit spread tightening drove our book value higher and it was higher by 55% per share. Here we disaggregate the change in the growth components. Falling rates in the second quarter caused the subtraction from book value due to our swap hedges. That’s labeled here as derivatives and that was by $0.61 per share. But the yields on our assets fell by more than our swaps, such that the agency mortgage-backed securities and CMBS portfolio together contributed $0.98 to book value or $0.37 per share more than the loss on the swaps that we used to hedge them. Most of that outperformance is within the CMBS component, as agency MBS performed marginally better than swaps. Residential portfolio contributed an additional $0.17 per share and that was due primarily to improvement in the GSE credit risk transfer prices, which outperformed most any asset class on a spread basis. We paid $0.40 in common dividends of the $0.42 of core earnings. We’re happy with the way things are going in our portfolio with an attractive dividend, strong and improving asset quality, lower interest rate risk and declining book value volatility. Since we are positive on credit spreads and credit fundamentals, we therefore expect further book value appreciation, declining book value volatility and a stable dividend. With the increased risk retention regulation on the way for securitization, we also see some attractive opportunities developing in the CMBS market to put capital to work, earning low to mid-teens ROEs with no financial leverage. We expect the volume of risk retention deals to start slowing now in the second-half and for volumes then to pick up toward the end of the year and into 2017. Increased volume will incent issuers to partner with trusted capital providers as the amount of capital needed cumulatively begins to exceed the amount of this risk that regulated institutions will desire on their balance sheet. We have the resources and platforms to excel in both residential and commercial. It makes sense to us that as we continue to execute on our plan to reduce economic return volatility, that our stock prices eventually going to reflect that we have outperformed our industry. In the long run, the major driving force behind the returns to mortgage REIT shareholders is the high level of dividends, relative to pretty much any other industry. IVR management has been focused on reducing book value volatility, believing smoother economic returns will be reflected in a higher stock price over time, as risk is priced out of stock. Our shareholders have seen excellent portfolio returns and additional accretion from share repurchases. We expect to continue to drive shareholder returns with strong and stable income and to see additional benefit in the stock price at discount rates. Now, I’m happy to introduce John Anzalone, our CIO since our IPO seven years ago to cover our investment strategy and current portfolio positioning.