Michael M. Larsen
Analyst · Tami Zakaria with J.P. Morgan. You may go ahead
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. In Q1, the ITW team delivered a solid start to the year, both operationally and financially. Starting with the topline, organic growth was down 1.6% as expected. On an equal days’ basis, organic revenue was flat to the prior year, which had one additional shipping day. Foreign currency translation reduced revenue by 1.8% and total revenue was down 3.4%. Product line simplification reduced revenue by 50 basis points in the quarter. Of note, we did not experience a meaningful impact from customers pulling forward orders from Q2 into Q1. On the bottom line, the ITW team continued to focus and execute well on the things that we can control, as evidenced by enterprise initiatives, which contributed 120 basis points and free cash flow of $496 million with a conversion rate of 71%. Operating margin was 24.8% as enterprise initiatives were offset by operating leverage, higher restructuring expenses related to 80/20 Front-to-Back projects and other one-time items. The margin decline year-over-year was due primarily to the non-repeat of a 300 basis points LIFO inventory accounting benefit last year. We are projecting that margins will continue to improve sequentially from here in every segment and at the enterprise level as we go through the year, which is in-line with our historical pattern and supported by meaningful contributions from enterprise initiatives that are volume independent. In summary, demand remains steady in Q1 as we continue to outperform our underlying end markets, delivering flat organic growth on an equal days’ basis, solid margins of 24.8%, free cash flow of approximately $500 million as well as GAAP EPS of $2.38 which was ahead of our planned expectations, primarily due to a lower effective tax rate in the quarter. Please turn to Slide 4, for a look at organic growth by geography. And, on a geographic basis, organic revenue declined about 3% in both North America and Europe, while Asia Pacific was up 7% with China up 12%, driven in part by continued strong performance in the automotive OEM business. As you can see, China represents about 7% of total company revenues, and China grew 9% even when excluding the 14% growth in automotive OEM. Let’s move to the segment results, starting with automotive OEM, where organic revenue declined 1% in the first quarter as product line simplification or PLS efforts reduced revenue by 1%. On a regional basis, North America was down 6% as D3 customer builds were down 10%. Europe was down 6%, while China grew 14% against a tough comparison of plus 23% last year as our local team continues to innovate and gain market share, particularly in the rapidly growing EV market. We expect this strong growth momentum to continue through the balance of 2025, partially offsetting expected weakness in North America. For the full-year and compared to industry build data, we expect that this segment will outperform relevant builds by the usual 200 basis points to 300 basis points as we continue to grow our content per vehicle. We have incorporated recently revised auto builds forecast into our guidance as worldwide auto builds are projected to be down low-single-digits with North American builds down high-single-digits, Europe down low-single-digits and partially offset by China. Overall, our relevant markets are expected to be down in the mid-single-digits in 2025, which compares to a plan of down low-single-digits going into the year. On the bottom line, the Automotive OEM segment delivered operating margin of 19.3% in Q1, which included 80 basis points of restructuring headwind. In other words, margins were 20.1% excluding restructuring. And, it is worth noting that the tariff related costs and margin impacts in this segment are relatively insignificant, primarily because of our “produce where we sell” manufacturing footprint. And, we remain confident that we will continue to expand margins as we go through the year. Turning to Slide 5. Food Equipment organic growth was up a little more than 1% and up 3% on an equal days’ basis. Equipment was flat and Service grew 3%. By region, North America grew 1% with strength in institutional end markets, which were up double-digits. Our International business was up 2%, Europe was up 2% and Asia Pacific was up 1%. In Test & Measurement and Electronics, organic revenue was down 5% due primarily to tough comparisons in the MTS business, which grew 23% in the year ago quarter and was down 19% this quarter. Excluding MTS, this segment was down 2%. Overall, Test & Measurement declined 9% with about half of that decline due to MTS. While on a positive note, Electronics was up 3% with some encouraging signs as semi-related orders were up double-digits in the quarter. Operating margin of 21.4% declined 200 basis points due primarily to negative operating leverage as well as a headwind from higher restructuring costs of 60 basis points. Moving on to Slide 6. Organic growth in Welding was essentially flat and up 2% on an equal days’ basis. Equipment increased 1%, which marked the first positive growth rate in Equipment in two years. Consumables were down 2%, while Industrial sales declined 1% and the Commercial side was down 6%. Overall, North America was down 2% offset by international, which was up 14%, driven primarily by more than 30% growth in China as a result of the success of new product introductions targeted at the energy space. Operating margin of 32.5% was essentially flat year-over-year. Polymers & Fluids organic revenue grew 2% with Polymers up 6%. Both Fluids and Automotive aftermarket were flat. On a geographic basis, North America was flat and International grew 5%. Operating margin improved 70 basis points to 26.5%. Turning to Slide 7, Construction Products. Organic growth was down 7% in tough end-markets. In The U.S, annualized new housing starts were down double-digits compared to year-end, and we estimate that international markets were down in the high-single-digits. As a result, North America was down 10% with Residential Automation down 12% while Commercial Construction was up 2%. In the first quarter, Europe was down 2% and Australia and New Zealand was down 9%. Operating margin of 29.2% was essentially flat with another significant contribution from enterprise initiatives. Specialty Products organic revenue was up 1% against the comparison of plus 6% in the year ago period, with North America up 2% and International down 1%. The reduction in revenue from Strategic PLS was 130 basis points. Of note, equipment orders were up double-digits with continued strength in the Aerospace and Packing Equipment businesses. Operating margin improved 120 basis points to 30.9% with another solid contribution from Enterprise Initiatives. With that, let’s turn to our Slide 8, for an update on our full-year 2025 guidance, which is unchanged. Looking ahead to the balance of the year, we firmly believe that we’re better positioned than most as the impact of tariffs is largely mitigated by our 90%plus “produce where we sell” manufacturing strategy, and our unmatched ability to read and react in our highly decentralized operating culture. We’re well-positioned to outperform our end markets and deliver organic growth of 0% to 2% based on our usual topline guidance process, which is based on current levels of demand adjusted for typical seasonality, the incremental pricing associated with tariffs and updated for the most recent automotive build projections that we talked about earlier. As you saw in our press release this morning, we’re maintaining our previous guidance, including GAAP EPS in the range of $10.15 to $10.55. And, given the uncertainty in the global demand environment, we decided to not incorporate the EPS upside from our above plan results in Q1 as well as approximately $0.30 of tailwind from foreign exchange at current rates. We fully expect to continue to execute at a high-level on the most important profitability drivers that are within our control, such as our ongoing pricing and supply chain actions that, as Chris said, are projected to offset tariff costs and therefore be EPS neutral or better as well as our enterprise initiatives, which we now expect will contribute 100 basis points or more of margin expansion independent of volume. So to wrap things up, we’re confident that the strength and resilience of the ITW business model, our high-quality diversified business portfolio and our people put us in a strong position to deal decisively and effectively with the effects of the announced tariffs, however, they play out from here, while remaining focused on executing our long-term enterprise strategy. So with that, Erin, I’ll turn it back to you.