Candido Bracher
Analyst · macroeconomic conditions, market risks and other factors
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. And thanks for attending Itaú's 2020 third quarter earnings call. I hope you're all well and safe. On Slide 2 and before we get into our financial performance, I'd like to comment on the macroeconomic scenario we faced this quarter. After a period of strong economic contraction due to the pandemic, we can already see encouraging signs of activity recovery in Brazil. This is reflected both in our GDP expectation for the period, as well as in the Itaú economic activity index, which is very close to the pre-crisis levels. However, this recovery was made possible largely due to the stimulus provided by the government, which in turn increased public spending and deteriorated Brazil's fiscal situation, as you can see in the debt to GDP graph. In the end, this recovery scenario brought important opportunities for the bank. Over the past quarter, the interest rate in Brazil reached its lowest level in our history, which continued to drive our clients to seek more profitable investment opportunities. In this context, activity in the capital markets continued to grow due to the increased demand from individual investors and created the condition for us to advice and structure 28 new ECM transactions this year. This low interest environment in conjunction with the changes brought by the pandemic on the way the population uses for the transportation has led to a healthy demand for car financing products. We also launched important new real estate financing options for our clients with a wider range of products aimed at home equity, as well as the launch of mortgage with interest rates based on savings deposits. This was only possible due to our funding structure, which enabled us to deploy this process, which currently has the lowest interest rates in the market without increasing our ALM risk. Last but not least, we dispersed to our SMEs clients just over BRL16 billion in the period through loan subsidies which is sponsored and largely guaranteed by the government. Slide 4, so in view of the scenario I just described, here we show that the bank ended the third quarter of 2020 with a recurring net income of BRL5 billion, which translated into an ROE of 15.7%. This19% net income growth was led by an 18.7% reduction in the cost of credit and important recovery of our fees revenues. However, these effects were partially offset by the negative impact of the change in product mix on our net interest income and seasonally higher non-operating expense. Finally, the loan portfolio grew by 4.4%, ending the period with a balance of BRL847 billion, which we'll discuss in further detail in the next slide. Moving to Slide 5, we showed the evolution of the client portfolio. I'd like to highlight three things in this page. First is the SMEs loan book growth, the 14% growth in this portfolio was due to our participation in loan facilities sponsored and largely guaranteed by the government aimed at this sector. Our customers used these lines not only so that they could better navigate the effect of the current crisis, but also to replace more extensive credit lines. Secondly, we observed an important recovery in the individual's loan portfolio driven by credit cards, mortgage and vehicle financing. It is important to highlight that the growth in credit cards occurred in a non-interest-bearing portfolio, whereas the revolving credit balance still showed an important contraction quarter-on-quarter. Lastly, personal loans remained relatively stable. But there was an additional relevant change in the mix of products as you can see in the chart on the bottom right corner of the slide. As we mentioned on the previous quarter earnings call this movement reflects not only a change in our customers behavior and a drop in consumption levels, but also and very importantly, our active risk management approach as we gear clients towards more sustainable credit products. It is important to mention that the bulk of this change in mix happened in the previous quarter. Therefore we consider the impact was higher on the average outstanding. Naturally, this portfolio dynamics continued to negatively impact the financial margin as we you'll soon see on the next slide. But we do believe this is a good trade off temporarily to give as part of the margin in order to protect the principle Slide 6, on Slide 6, you'll see that the change in the credit mix as we explained in the previous slide generated two negative impacts, BRL0.4 billion related to the change in the mix on the individuals and SMEs portfolio as mentioned previously, and an additional point BRL0.4 billion due to the change in mix between segments, more wholesale, less retail. And finally, the lowest in the grade had a negative impact of BRL0.2 billion on the remuneration of the working capital. These effects were partially offset by the higher average credit volume and also by the higher number of calendar days. Slide 7, which is the reprofiled loans. Before we move into cost of credit, I would like to update you on how the reprofiled loans behaved this quarter. On Slide 7, we show that this portfolio finished September with BRL53.5 billion, marginally higher than the second quarter when we had BRL52 billion. The acceleration of the growth of his portfolio is directly linked to the better macroeconomic environment, which eventually led to lower demand for this [indiscernible]. By the end of the third quarter, 75% of the grace periods already expired. Out of that six percentage points where delinquent between 15 and 90 days and 0.6% of points were delinquent for more than 90 days. This performance is better than originally forecasted and one that puts us positive in place. Moving to Slide 8, we present evolution of the expected loss provision model and cost of credit. Before getting into the actual numbers, I'd like to once again explain the way we demonstrate the provisions on this chart. The provisions for overdue operations strictly follow the rules defined by the regulator, where a minimum level of provision is required when the loan is overdue. The next layer is what we call aggravated rating. These are related to the amount we have provision for overdue or renegotiated credits above the minimum defined by the regulator. Finally, we have the potential losses, which contains the provisions we've made for credits that are not delinquent nor regulated nor renegotiated. Even though we are seeing a good delinquency behavior from the clients that were granted payment holidays of their loans, we believe that we are still sailing in uncharted waters. Where due to the payment holidays I just mentioned are due to the fact that the recovery of the economy accelerating in the quarter was largely supported by emergency government aid, which is expected to be reduced dramatically next year. Given this fact, we decided to maintain a prudent management of our provisions. Therefore in this quarter, we continue to build provisions for potential losses, which increased by approximately 120% over the first 12 months, and together with the drop in the NPL balance, led to the highest coverage levels we've ever had. The management of our provisions reinforces our commitment to the sustainability of our medium and long-term results. Lastly, although the cost of credit is still above the normal levels, it continues to show a positive trend contracting further 18.7% in the quarter, the second time in row. This reflects all the actions we've undertaken since the beginning of this crisis, and the improvement in the macroeconomic and financial conditions which feed into our expected losses more. Now on Slide 9, we show that due to the intensity of the crisis in negotiations and the proactive offering of more flexible repayment terms of the last two quarters, the NPL 90 days ratios of individuals loan portfolio continue to contract. We believe this numbers do not properly reflect the full extent of the prices yet. You will note though, as expected, that there was an increase of 60 BPS in the short-term delinquency ratio of individuals portfolio as customers started to repay their loans. Slide 10 now, financial margin in the market. We can see that this financial margin continues to perform in line with historical levels. The performance was mainly due to higher gains in the Brazilian real [ph]. In Slide 11, we saw 12% increase in service revenues this period, a stark contrast to the performance in less quarter as all the fees and services revenues performed better than the previous quarter. The better economic activity led to more volumes, and naturally generated positive impacts in our credit and debit card fees, both in the issuing activity as well as in the acquiring operation. The higher transaction volumes also benefited the credit operation fees and the collection services. The low interest rate environment coupled with the economy recovery seen in the quarter led to good opportunities for investment banking activities. We finished the quarter with a 59.8% higher advisory and brokerage fees. Lastly, I'd like to highlight that we ended September with BRL1.9 trillion in assets under custody, a 15.7% growth over the last 12 months. This performance was achieved not only through traditional operations, but as well through the investment open platform, which finished the quarter just shy of BRL290 billion under custody. Slide 12, ESG, last quarter, I mentioned that we would continue to highlight how ESG aspects are integrated into our core business. This quarter we are going to shed more light over some of our initiatives in our asset management and investment banking operation. Itaú asset management has a long tradition in integrating ESG metrics in its operation. It was a pioneer in adhering to the principles for responsible investment. And since 2010, it has incorporated ESG metrics to evaluate the company's where we invest our client's resources. Today, more than 95% of our assets under management are covered by our ESG valuation model. Moreover, we promote the adoption of the best sustainability practices through direct engagement with investees and by exercising our rights to vote as shareholders meetings. Additionally, we have several investment products dedicated to this. One of such products is MomentoESG or ESG moment in a direct translation. It is an active managed fund launched September this year that selects between 15 and 25 stocks with the greatest potential for long-term results. Lastly, in this year our investment banking operation Itaú BBA structured and advised 75% of ESG issuance of Brazilian companies in international markets. Slide 13, now, non-interest expenses. We'll discuss the non-interest expenses, which are another important element of our performance. When we compare this quarter with the same period of the previous year, we can observe a decrease of 0.9% in our consolidated expenses with a 4.2% decrease in Brazil. If we adjusted for inflation, expenses in Brazil fell in real terms by an impressive 7.4% in the period, as can be seen in the chart at the bottom of the slide. One of the reasons we became more efficient is due to our consistent investment in technology. As you can see on the left side of the slide, this is an area where we continue to invest heavily increasing our capacity and developing hours by almost 40% this year. Moving on to Slide 14, we present our clients digitalization trends. As you know, the crisis naturally led and forced many clients to migrate their banking interactions into our digital channels. And in the upper left corner chart we show that the number of customers that primarily use our digital channels continues to grow. In this scenario, we were pleased to see that the availability of our systems and services reached their highest historical levels despite the greater demand and stress of our digital infrastructure. We strongly believe that the experiences our customers had on our digital channels was very positive. And this becomes evident when we observe the same or even higher level of utilization of our digital channels in this quarter despite the end of almost all of the quarantine and social distancing measures that were in place throughout the second quarter indicates. Additionally, we noticed that the flow of new accounts opened online showed a small decrease in this quarter. However, the volume remains practically double what was observed last year and showcases a positive ongoing trend as new clients becoming more digital in the way they interact with the bank. Slide 15, we show that our Tier 1 regulatory capital improved by 30 basis points this quarter despite a still fuller price scenario, and under then it appeared with 12.4% capital ratio. On Slide 16, as we are already in November, it makes no sense to disclose the guidance for the year 2020. Also next month, we will support Milton in defining the guidance for 2021 that will be given on our fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Nevertheless, the perspectives described here should be the basis of this guidance, namely, keeping appropriate levels of capital and liquidity, expanding the loan portfolio, an additional reduction in the average rate of financial margin is client, compensated by our growths in service and insurance revenues. We expect a progressive reduction in the cost of credit, and we'll keep an emphasis in efficiency gains. Finally, on Slide 17, we'll comment on the recent material effect of other stake in XP. As you all know, the original acquisition plan set a series of colon put options whereby we could eventually end up controlling the company. However, this design was not approved by the Brazilian Central Bank, and we ended up with a minority non-controlling stake. As a result, this became a financial investment rather than a strategical asset for the firm. Therefore, after a careful and thorough analysis, we concluded that it would be in the best interest of our shareholders, seeing off such investment from Itaú and transfer it to a new company owned by them. By doing this, we would be able to achieve two equally important objectives, unlock value as this investment is not fully priced in our evaluation, and give our shareholders the ability to decide what they want to do is this asset. As a result, we're studying the possibility to spin off 41.05% of XPs capital held by the bank into a new company or Newco, a company that would be listed in the stock exchange. After the spinoff, Itaú Unibanco's shareholders would receive an equity interest in Newco whose only asset would be the shares represented by XPs capital. This study also looks into the possibility of selling the remainder of the shares issued by XP held by Itaú Unibanco corresponding to 5% of XPs share capital in order to monetize part of this business line in our guarantees, and boost our capital ratios. With this I conclude the presentation, and we may start the Q&A session.