Candido Bracher
Analyst · macroeconomic conditions, market risks and other factors
Good morning. Thanks for joining us in this first quarter of 2018 earnings conference call. Before we go into key financial figures and performance, I'd like to briefly talk about our economic scenario, the regulatory framework and changes in the competitive environment in this first quarter. During this period, we observed the continuity of the trends started in the second half of 2017 with a more favorable performance in the Brazilian economy and a steady and gradual recovery of economic activity. This improvement we've seen is a direct result of the Brazilian Central Bank's ability to control inflation, which enabled a further decrease in the Selic rate. The more benign economic environment led to an increase in the confidence levels of individuals and companies, notably in the SME segment, that continued to improve credit demand in the period. Besides that, the Brazilian Central Bank has acted following its BC+ agenda, aiming at the reduction of the inefficiencies of the financial system, as demonstrated by the recent measure related to the reserve requirements. The combination of all these factors, coupled with better asset quality indicators, allows gradual and sustainable spread reduction. Now on the competitive arena, we continue to see increasing competition, mainly from newcomers and fintechs. We like competition because it stimulates us to permanently seek the improvement of our product and services, all of this aiming at our client satisfaction. Turning now to Slide 3. Here, we highlight the key performance figures from our first quarter results. The recurring net income reached BRL 6.4 billion in the quarter, which resulted in a recurring ROE of 22.2%, an increase of 30 basis points when compared to the fourth quarter. In the same period, the recurring ROE for our Brazilian operations was 20 bps higher and reached 23.7%. As you know, the first quarter is usually the weakest quarter in the year for the loan book, mainly due to the credit card portfolio. I'm glad to say that the seasonal impact in our credit card portfolio was less pronounced than in previous years. And save for this portfolio and large companies, all the other portfolios presented growth in the quarter, leading to a 0.2% growth in the total loan book in the period. This positive development is a result of the increased credit demand from our clients. Now taking a more detailed look at our results we presented. First, lower financial margin with clients, mainly due to the lower number of calendar days this quarter. Commission, fees and results from insurance operations declined 3.4% in the quarter, mainly due to seasonal effects. It's important though to highlight that year-over-year fees increased 7.3%. The margin and fees contraction was more than compensated by the decline in cost of credit as a result of the lower delinquency ratio in Brazil, both in individuals and in the SMEs portfolio. I also highlight the decrease of 7.9% in non-interest expense. Now on Slide 4, we present our first quarter income statement. This quarter, the decrease in financial margin with clients and in commissions was more than compensated by the reduction in cost of credit and in non-interest expenses, as I mentioned in the previous slide. This movement in the quarter led to an increase of 12.7% in our income before tax and minority interest and 2% in our recurring net income when compared to the fourth quarter. So the income before tax and minority interest increased by 12.7%. The income, 2.2% was our recurring net income because, as you see, the tax rate increased. Let me just highlight here that we are calculating income taxes at a 45% rate while valuing our deferred tax assets at a 40% tax rate, in line with the current legislation. On Slide 5 now, we show the evolution of our net income and ROE over the last seven quarters. The figures show the positive evolution of our profitability, especially when compared to our cost of equity. On Slide 6, our business model chart, in which we break down the consolidated income statement in income earned in operations that bear credit risk, including its related fees; income from trading operations; income from insurance and services; and excess capital over regulatory requirements. I'll point out that the capital allocated to these activities corresponds to the target capital of our risk appetite, which, as you know, indicates a Tier 1 of at least 13.5%. The insurance and services business line continues to be the main driver behind our value creation, and this quarter, the credit business created value, mostly as a result of the lower credit cost. You can see there on the credit column the first quarter 2018 value creation of BRL 0.2 billion. On Slide 7, we present to you our credit portfolio breakdown. On the last three months, the portfolio grew 0.2%. On the individuals portfolio, as previously mentioned, the only portfolio that showed contraction was the credit card due to seasonality, typical of the first quarter. All the other credit lines showed positive evolution in the quarter. This trend is related to the resumption of consumer confidence that resulted in increased demand for credit. I highlight the increase of 3.9% in personal loans and a 0.7% in mortgage loans. I also want to emphasize another quarterly growth of our vehicle portfolio this time of 1.7%. The stronger demand was also a key driver for the growth in the very small, small and medium companies portfolio, which increased 1.9% in the period. Looking at the past 12 months, the portfolio grew 2.4%. Here, we have the positive impact of the acquisition of Citi's retail portfolio in Brazil. The portfolio would have grown 1.3% if it were not for this effect. This was mainly due to the retail portfolio, especially on consumer credit lines and also to our SMEs portfolio. Now on the negative side, we continue to see a subdued demand on large corporates, as expected, leading to a decrease of 1.9% in the quarter. The main reason for this movement is related to a very healthy demand for corporate debt from the capital markets, which has enabled companies to access cheaper sources of funding with longer maturities. Now on Slide 8, we are presenting for the first time our credit origination and private securities issuance in Brazil. So it's an account of our credit origination. We do not intend to show this every quarter because they are not that significant changes every quarter. So here, we make a yearly evolution of it, and so that you can have a long-term view of our – what's the growth in our credit origination. So you see that in the years before the crisis of 2014 and 2015, we had a stable credit origination in those two years. Then we dropped 35% in 2016, started recuperating 7% in the first quarter of 2017, and now we are growing 17% in the first quarter of 2018. This is in total credits. And we can see that this increase in credit origination is led mainly by individuals. You see that we are back to 99, almost to the same level we had in the first quarter of 2014, though still below the level of origination we had in the first quarter of 2015. And it's also led by very small, small and middle market companies, where we see an increase. We are now at 92% of the origination we used to have in the first quarter of 2014. And looking at the trend, we have reasons to believe that the trend is still positive and we'll keep on growing credit origination for this. On the other hand, we see that on the corporate sector, credit origination continues to lag. A significant part of the explanation comes from the last chart on the bottom right, where we show a very hefty increase in private securities issuance, which are now, in the first quarter of 2016, almost twice as much as what they were before the crisis in the first quarter of 2014, having decreased, and after that, to a level which was 34% that of the first quarter of 2014. And now we are more than five times more than what we had in the first quarter of 2016 in capital markets. So I think that this may be a permanent factor now, and that the corporate portfolio is not expected to grow as we are seeing the growth in the individuals and SMEs portfolios. Turning now to Page 9, the net interest margin and financial margin with clients. We present here our net interest margin and also the impact in our first quarter financial margin with clients when compared with the previous quarter. Our gross net interest margin remained stable and once again was negatively affected by the lower Selic rate, not only in our liabilities margin and in our own working capital but also in the reduction of spreads. However, these effects were compensated by a change in our credit mix towards higher-yielding products. Despite the stability, the reduction in cost of credit caused the risk-adjusted net interest margin to grow 30 bps in the quarter. Going to Slide 10 now. We present the evolution of our margins with the market. We had a positive quarter with an increase of 20.9% when compared with the previous quarter, reaching BRL 1.7 billion. The better-than-expected performance was related to the trading book, which benefited from the volatility in the period and by the gain of BRL 90 million from the sale of B3 shares. Moving to Slide 11, we present our delinquency ratios. And both the 90 days and the 15 to 90 days NPLs were stable in the quarter. Despite the stability of the 90-day NPL, we highlight the important decrease of 30 basis points in the individuals and of 20 basis points in the very small, small and medium-sized companies in Brazil. These decreases were compensated by the increase of 80 points in the corporate ratio, which is related to the exposure of a client that in the previous quarter was in the 15-day to 90-day NPL. This exposure was already adequately provisioned. Our 15 to 90 days NPL of the individuals portfolio increased 20 points in the quarter. This deterioration is related to the seasonal concentration of deals and expenses for individuals such as the annual taxes on cars and housing, education cost and end-of-year credit card bills, among others. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that the seasonal deterioration was smaller than it has been in the previous three years. On Slide 12, we present the evolution of our NPL creation. Our total NPL creation increased in the quarter and reached BRL 5 billion. The increase is mainly related to the exposure of a large corporate client that migrated from the 15 to 90 day NPL, as mentioned, which was already provisioned and as I mentioned in the previous slide. The dotted line indicates that NPL, excluding the mentioned case, would be BRL 4.5 billion. Now on the positive side, the NPL creation of our retail portfolio continues to improve nominally, decreasing for the third quarter in a row and has reached the lowest level since 2012. On Slide 13, we present the evolution of provisions for loan losses and cost of credit. The decrease in our provision for loan losses in this quarter is mainly related to the improvement in asset quality of the retail portfolio in Brazil. In the wholesale portfolio in Brazil, despite the slight increase, it continues to perform as expected. And as I mentioned before, the increase in the 90 days NPL did not affect our results. I'm glad to mention that the ratio of cost of credit to the total risk reached 2.5% this quarter, the lowest level since 2014. On Slide 14, we present our coverage ratio that reached 236% this quarter. As I have explained in previous conference calls, the coverage ratio goes down if a company to which we have made precautionary provision defaults, and the NPL increases without affecting our profit and loss. And that was the case this quarter. The dotted lines indicate the NPL, excluding the case I mentioned previously in this presentation. In the long term, the coverage ratio will go down not only due to events similar to what we had this quarter in which a company defaults. But it will also go down if the companies improve and we are able to revert the provisions, in this case with a positive impact in our P&L. However, in the short term, coverage ratio may even increase if none of these events materialized and we have a reduction of the 90-day NPL balance. On Slide 15, we see that commissions and fees and result from insurance operations decreased 3.4% when compared to the previous quarter. This performance was mainly a result of the decrease of 6.2% in credit card fees, which is seasonally impacted, and by the reduction of 19.8% in advisory and brokerage fees related to our investment bank, which, despite a good volume of operations in the first quarter, was below the record level verified in the previous quarter. These reductions were partially offset by the increase of 6.5% in asset management fees associated with the growth of the assets under management and higher performance fees and also by the increase of 3.1% in current account services due to increased volume of transactions and client base. Turning now to Slide 16. We show here the decrease of 7.9% of our noninterest expenses in the period mainly related to the typical seasonality of the first quarter. But I want to highlight our annual performance in this line. Excluding the impact of the consolidation of the Citibank operation and the expenses of our Latin American operations, the annual growth of the noninterest expenses was 1%, 170 basis points below the inflation on the same period, once again demonstrating our strict cost control. Now we move to Slide 17. Here I'll comment on our capital ratios. After having reduced our fully loaded Tier 1 capital according to our restated policy to 13.5% after the payment of dividends, we finished the quarter with the level of 14.5% due to the first quarter profit and our additional Tier 1 issued on March 2018, which is pending approval by the Brazilian Central Bank. Lastly, it's important to say that our additional Tier 1 capital issued in December 2017 was approved by the Central Bank. Now on Page 18, in addition to the disclosure of financial results, I'd like to present the distribution of added value in the quarter. During this period, we added BRL 17.4 billion to society that helped to boost the economy and to stimulate the transformational power of thousands of people. Of that value, 14% was designated to our more than 120,000 direct shareholders and more than 1 million indirect shareholders in Brazil through investment funds; 32% was invested to taxes, fees and contributions; 28% to our employees; and 24% to reinvestment in our operations. So with this, I conclude this presentation, and we can go now to the questions that you may have.