Denise Ramos
Analyst · Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Steve. Our third quarter results on slide four were stronger than our internal expectations due accelerated productivity benefits mix and timing of investments. We delivered organic revenue that only declined 4% compared to the prior year, a relatively strong outcome in current market conditions. That performance included a 2% improvement at defense a 10% decline at fluid and a 16% decline at motion. On a sequential basis, organic revenue also declined 4% primarily due to defense timing and some seasonality in the commercial businesses. Total third quarter organic orders declined 26% on weakness at defense and that reflected the lumpiness of current year orders and the difficult comparison to a record quarter that we had in 2008. Fluid declined 15% compared to the prior year but they did improve 1% sequentially. In the third quarter, organic book-to-bill ratios for both Fluid and Motion and Control has exceeded 1.0 for the first time since the economic crisis began. Segment operating income decreased 6% to $352 million and segment margins declined only 10 basis points to 13%. When you exclude the non-operating impact of pension, foreign exchange and higher restructuring expense, segment margins actually improved 80 basis points operationally. This reflects our continued commitment to accelerated investments and footprint realignment and integrated supply chain initiatives that have generated nice productivity gains during all of 2009. At quarter's end, we once again raised our productivity expectations setting us up nicely for the fourth quarter and into 2010. Excluding special items for tax and future asbestos claims, earnings per share of $1.03 declined only 7% versus the prior year. This performance was $0.18 better than the midpoint of our previous guidance primarily due to strong underlying productivity and some timing benefits. Now, let's turn to our financial position overview which is on slide five. During the third quarter, our strong financial positions grew even stronger due to record year-to-date free cash flow of $916 million. This result was 21% better than the prior year's third quarter and is further evidence of our overall earnings quality in 2009. Excluding non-cash special items, our free cash flow conversion of income from continuing operations expanded to 174%. Our working capital performance did provide the foundation for this strong free cash flow performance. As a percent of sales, working capital includes 40 basis points to 12.9% primarily due to strong receivable collections. During 2009, we have purposefully improved our overall liquidity by generating strong free cash flow paying down and terming out commercial paper and strategically deploying capital. So as a result of these concentrated efforts, our net debt-to-net capital ratio has been reduced by over 1,900 basis points from 27.9% to 8.5%. We've paid down $464 million in debt reducing outstanding commercial paper to $225 million at quarter's end. We expect to pay down the commercial paper balance fully by year end. In addition, third quarter cash and cash equivalents now total $1.35 billion with over 75% of this cash currently invested outside of the U.S. primarily in Europe. Another positive liquidity development relates to our updated pension funding projections. We do not currently expect any mandatory contribution to our U.S. salary pension plans prior to 2011. So our strong free cash flow generation and responsible capital deployment activities are building a stronger balance sheet. Turn to Fluid Technology on slide six. Fluid's third quarter revenue declined 10% on an organic basis and this was generally in line with expectations. This performance reflected stronger than anticipated results at industrial process but offset further challenges in commercial markets. Stabilizing conditions became more evident in the municipal and residential markets. On a sequential basis, organic revenue declined 7% reflecting some seasonality. Organic fluid orders declined 16%, but on a sequential basis organic orders increased 1%. The quarter's organic book-to-bill ratio stabilized at 1.0. Fluid's operating margin performance in the quarter was strong once again. Aggressive cost initiatives helped offset volume declines and generated a 90 basis point net operational improvement. However, the total margin declined 80 basis points to 13.1%. This is due to negative impact from higher restructuring foreign exchange and pension costs. Fluid productivity actions remain ahead of schedule exiting 2009 and leading into 2010. At the fluid value center level, water and wastewater revenue declined 5% organically due to weakness in dewatering and slight declines in municipal markets. Organic orders declined 4% due to weakness in EMEA municipals, but they did improve in North American municipal markets primarily due to large pump projects. During the third quarter, we received our first U.S. stimulus-funded orders involving a number of different treatment and transport projects across our entire water and wastewater portfolio. These wins reflect the strength of our portfolio of products that are 100% buy-American compliant and they support our forecast for stable to improving U.S. municipal markets. In total, the water and wastewater book-to-bill ratio was 1.07 for the quarter. Industrial process declined 11% due to continued weakness in North American general industrial markets. However, the revenue performance did exceed our internal expectations due to stronger oil and gas and power results. Organic orders declined 30% compared to a strong prior year. This was due to lower customer investments in large projects across most key end markets served. However, on a sequential basis, organic orders improved 8%. Residential and commercial water, revenue declined 16% and orders declined 20% organically due to global commercial market weakness. Our residential business further stabilized with the second quarter of sequential growth after a difficult first quarter of 2009. For the year, we are continuing to project residential declines in the low-teens. Despite difficult market conditions, we did not adjust our previous commercial forecast. Also, at residential and commercial water, the integration of our recent land acquisition is progressing nicely and is ahead of schedule. We are excited about the future opportunities that this strategic acquisition brings to our fluid portfolio. Now on slide seven you will see the detailed full year key end market forecast supporting the increase in our fluid organic revenue guidance to down 10% from down 12%. The primary driver of this improvement is a more positive forecast in our industrial markets combined with some stability in residential and municipal markets. Total fluid revenue including acquisitions and FX is now forecasted to decline 14%. On slide eight, our Motion and Flow Control segment continued to show strong productivity gains in the face of topline pressures. Third quarter organic revenues declined 16%. This performance was well in excess of our internal expectations, due to stronger results in the automotive market. On a sequential basis, organic revenue was only down 3% primarily due to seasonality. Segment organic orders declined 15% on weakness at Control Technologies and Interconnect Solutions, but that more than offset improvements at Motion Technology. The segment's third quarter book-to-bill ratio was positive at $1.03. Motion Technology's organic revenues and orders declined 3% in the third quarter. Both results reflected increased activity in the European auto market related to various countries automotive stimulus programs. However, weakness in the truck and trailer markets offset these automotive gains. During a difficult 2009 automotive market, our team has continued to gain market share due to our advanced technology, our operational excellence and customer focus. We had new platform wins in the quarter from Ford and Audi, and for the quarter Motion Technology's book-to-bill ratio was strong at $1.11. Control Technologies revenue declined 20% and orders declined 29% on an organic basis due to slowing demand primarily in global industrial and aerospace markets. Interconnect Solutions revenue declined 30% organically reflecting weakness in industrial markets. Orders declined 23% compared to the prior year, but actually increased 14% sequentially. Segment operating margins at Motion and Flow Control declined to 13.2% due to lower volumes, higher pension and foreign exchange. However, accelerated productivity actions and prior investments mitigated the impact of lower volume resulting in detrimental margins in the quarter under 20%. Slide nine includes the latest full year key end market overview for Motion and Flow Control. In total, we raised the full year organic revenue forecast for Motion and Flow at 300 basis points to down in the 16% range compared to the prior year. Total motion revenue including foreign exchange is now projected to be in the down 23% range. The forecast improvements primarily reflect our strong Q3 automotive performances to some stabilizing conditions in the general industrial markets. On slide 10, we have our third quarter defense results. Third quarter revenues of $1.57 billion improved 2% compared to the prior year and were generally in line with our internal expectations. This performance was anchored by the success of Avionics programs in our Electronic Systems business coupled with strong results from our service businesses. In the quarter, our systems business improved 8% with strong performance on Middle East contracts and recent program wins including Maxwell Air Force Base, the Tethered Aerostat Radar Counter-Drug Program and LOGCAP. Advanced Engineering and Sciences improved 5% due to increased activity on various data analysis contracts and the FAA Air Traffic Control Modernization Contract. In the quarter, Communications systems declined 13% as expected due to lower domestic SINCGARS shipments partially offset by stronger international SINCGARS. In addition, shipments of networking and antenna equipment declined compared to the prior year. Total defense organic orders declined 34% due to timing and difficult comparisons to a record prior year. As a result, backlog declined to $4.9 billion. As you know, timing of defense orders can be very unpredictable. For example, just after the quarter closed, we received our largest ever international satellite order at Space. This win provides further validation of the commitment that we have to grow our defense business internationally and that brought our backlog quickly back up over $5 billion and we do expect to maintain that level at year end. Defense's third quarter operating margins was very strong at 13%. This result was 80 basis points better than the prior year due to net cost productivity and favorable product mix primarily involving CREW shipments that more than offset higher pension. Defense operating income grew 8% compared to the prior year and exceeded $200 million for a second straight quarter. So now that we've completed our third quarter operating review, I'd like to discuss the net liability we recorded in Q3 for future asbestos-related claims. The projected net liability primarily relates to products sold prior to 1985 that contained a third-party manufactured part alleged to contain asbestos. It does not relate to a new class of claims or a change in our methodology to process or defend these claims. It is simply a quantification of our estimate of claims to be filed in the next 10 years based on our current experiences and history. Prior to this quarter, we had not recorded a reserve for asbestos claims to be filed in the future. While the likelihood of future claims was probable, until now we did not have sufficient reliable data to estimate future costs. As you know, the accounting rule states that liabilities should only be recorded when they are both probable and reasonably estimatable. So as we indicated in our 2008 10-K and 2009 10-Q, we engaged outside consultants earlier this year to construct a comprehensive database of our existing claims, settlement values and legal costs to begin the cost estimation process. We also utilized a leading provider of liability estimation services to assist in the projection of future incidences of asbestos-related disease in the various industries in which we operated. These estimates were integrated with ITT's historical experiences around key variables, such as claims filed, percentage of claims settled, settlement values, and legal costs. After the completion of a qualitative assessment of the input from various internal and external experts, the data elements were combined into a 10-year forecast of the gross liability from future asbestos-related claims. Our forecast timeframe is 10 years because we believe that it is long enough to fairly represent current trends. Next, we examined the recoverability of various related insurance policies on a year-by-year basis. It should be noted that 63% of the insurance receivable is covered under court-enforceable agreements that we've already negotiated with certain primary insurance carriers. These policies are called coverage-in-place agreements and they typically carry less collection risk than other policies. For the receivable portion related to non-coverage in place policies, we discounted the expected future recoveries based on the expert opinion of legal counsel on a policy-by-policy and year-by-year basis. So the net liability for future asbestos claims recognized in the third quarter is the combination of the10-year future claims liability net of the projected insurance and other recoveries. As is typical of all reserves, we're going to review and assess the adequacy of the existing liability and receivable balances on a quarterly basis. New trends and assumptions will need to be analyzed Also, because the net liability is a 10-year estimate as one-year drops-off, we will add another year of projection over the course of the year. When this amount is revalued each year, there will be a corresponding adjustment to earnings. Lastly, the most important point on this slide is that we do not project a material impact to our future net annual cash flows. This point bears repeating. We've done the work required to project our asbestos-related net annual cash flows 10 years forward and we do not see a material change from our current net cash run rate. Now let me give you some numbers. Over the last three years, our cash outflows for asbestos claims have been in the $10 million to $15 million range. For the forecasted 10-year period, our average net annual cash outflows are projected to be in the $15tmillion to $20 million range. That represents less than 2% of our forecasted net cash from operations. Now, let's turn to slide 12 and look at the balance sheet and income statement adjustments recorded in the third quarter to reflect this net liability from future asbestos claims. On the balance sheet, we increased our existing liability by $662 million representing undiscounted future claims and legal costs. This was partially offset by the $439 million increase in our asbestos-related receivables. So the resulting net liability adjustment in the quarter was $223 million. The $223 million net liability adjustment resulted in a $139 million after tax or $0.75 per share charge. $131million or $0.71 per share of this charge was for continuing operations and was classified as a special item and excluded from our adjusted EPS from continuing operations. Now, there are a lot of numbers here to process from an accounting perspective and we understand that. So we've added a detailed schedule to the appendix of our presentation to hopefully help clarify. Additional details will be available in the third quarter 10-Q that we expect to file soon. So with that, I'd like to now turn to our 2009 guidance going forward on slide 13. As Steve indicated, we've once again increased the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guidance this time by $0.12 to $3.72 exceeding the high-end of our previous guidance range. We also tightened the range due to solid year-to-date performances. The revised 2009 adjusted full year EPS guidance range, excluding special items, is now $3.70 to $3.74 per share. This represents only an 8% decline to the prior year. So here is how you should think about the guidance. We exceeded the midpoint of third quarter guidance by $0.18; $0.08 was driven by exceptional productivity across all segments and $0.02 related to lower interest. We pulled all of this into our new full year guidance. The remaining $0.08 of the Q3 performance primarily related to the timing of restructuring and defense product mix which is a neutral on a full year basis. In addition, our guidance includes $0.06 primarily related to fourth quarter productivity at fluid. These improvements are expected to be partially offset by $0.04 of incremental corporate expenses, new investments and share count. So to summarize, the $0.12 raise included $0.10 of the Q3 performance plus $0.06 of incremental Q4 productivity and interest net of the $0.04 of incremental expenses and investments. On a full year basis, the organic revenue forecast of down 4% remains unchanged. However, we did increase the organic revenue forecast at fluid by 200 basis points and at motion by 300 basis points due to some stabilizing market conditions and strong year-to-date performances. Defense revenue growth is now projected in the 3% range primarily due to timing on key new service contracts and international shipments. For example, expected revenues for both LOGCAP and the NASA Extends Contract, which is currently under protest have largely pushed into 2010. So with that review, I'd like to turn things back to Steve before we begin the Q&A session.