Earnings Labs

Gartner, Inc. (IT)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 4, 2016

$150.08

+0.87%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.39%

1 Week

-4.92%

1 Month

+0.19%

vs S&P

-3.36%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Gartner's Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full-year 2015. A replay of this call will be available through March 8, 2016. The replay can be accessed by dialing 888-286-8010 for domestic calls and 617-801-6888 for international calls, and by entering the pass code 61045168. This call is being simultaneously webcast and will be archived on Gartner's website at www.gartner.com for approximately 90 days. I will now turn the call over to Sherief Bakr, Gartner's Group Vice President of Investor Relations for opening remarks and introductions. Please go ahead, sir.

Sherief Bakr - Group Vice President, Investor Relations

Management

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gartner's fourth quarter and full-year 2015 earnings call. With me today in Stanford is our Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall, and our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Safian. This call will include a discussion of Q4 and full-year 2015 financial results as disclosed in today's press release. We will also discuss our preliminary outlook for 2016. After our prepared remarks, you will have an opportunity to ask questions. I'd like to remind everyone that the press release is available on our website, investor.gartner.com. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you of certain statements made on this call may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's 2014 annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as well as other filings with the SEC. I would encourage all of you to review the risk factors listed in these documents. Finally, before I turn the call over to Gene, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be hosting our Annual Investor Day in New York next Thursday, February 11. It'll be a great opportunity to hear from Gene and other senior leaders of the company. For those of you who've yet to register and would like to attend, please send an email to investor.relations@gartner.com and we'd be happy to send you an invitation. With that, I'd like to hand the call over Gartner's Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall. Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, thanks, Sherief. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on our Q4 and full-year earnings call. As you may have seen from our press release earlier today, we continue to perform well in…

Operator

Operator

And your first question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik of Barclays. Please proceed.

Ryan C. Leonard - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. This is Ryan filling in for Manav. Just wondering if you could kind of flesh out some of the commentary on the energy markets and how that's affecting productivity? Just to give us a sense of – I don't think that's getting any better. So just your assumption of flat productivity next year with that commentary on the headwinds you saw in the fourth quarter? Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Ryan. This is Gene. So, the energy sector for us, energy and utilities, first is a small portion of our business. As Craig mentioned, it's less than 5% of our overall business. In that sector, despite – oil prices went from like $100 a barrel to $30 a barrel, so it's a pretty tough environment there. In that environment, we, as I mentioned in my comments, still had single-digit growth. In many of the countries that are in the oil segment, like Brazil, our growth decelerated, but again in Brazil we had double-digit growth. And so, we're aware of what's going on in the industry and technology is important in oil and gas, in every industry in the world. Even when they have cost problems, often – in fact, almost always technology's part of the solution, not the problem. So the reason we're able to grow even in very tough environments like that is because technology helps them actually achieve their cost objectives, as well as other parts of their business like looking at how to grow with their clients as well. And so, we're pretty confident that even in tough economic situations with our individual clients or in countries that when we focus on the right issues, which is helping them save costs or helping them grow their revenues, we'll have great growth there.

Ryan C. Leonard - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks. And I guess what I was trying to get at is if productivity is assumed to be flat in the guidance and there were some headwinds, just is there a risk to that if energy continues to persist like that? So just more on the – how should we think of productivity being impacted by these energy and utility headwinds? Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So we've assumed – as Craig mentioned, we've assumed productivity is flat going forward at the rate that we achieved last year. We have a lot of programs to improve productivity. So we're not sort of happy with flat productivity. We've assumed that in the plan because we want to assume what we've actually achieved. We've got improved recruiting. We've got improved training. We've got improved tools for our sales force that we introduced sort of – that we developed last year and are coming into fruition this year. And all those leading indicators say that our sales productivity should go up. So, for example, if you look at leading indicators of the people we recruited throughout 2015, that class of new recruits, their leading indicators are that they're going to have better sales productivity than the ones in the previous couple of classes. Similarly, our training, we continue to enhance. And we've got some really innovative tools we think have potential to increase sales productivity a lot. We haven't baked that in because we want to actually see it happen. And so, we actually are looking for sales productivity – we're aiming for and working hard to get sales productivity to grow during 2016.

Ryan C. Leonard - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. And just on the M&A commentary, is there anything particularly industry-wise, geography, that you're focused on? Obviously the small and medium-sized markets were kind of a focus this year. Is that something we should expect to continue or is there anywhere else you're looking? Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We track approximately 100 or a few more companies at any given point in time. So there's all different kinds of situations. So I can't really characterize it as being one kind of particular area that we're looking at.

Ryan C. Leonard - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler of Baird. Please proceed. Jeffrey Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Yeah. Thank you. Another one on productivity and I recognize it doesn't impact this year's financial results all that much. But it was down in Q4 and this may be parsing it a bit too thin looking at one word, but I think you said primarily due to energy utilities and other markets. Are there offsetting factors that are offsetting some of these programs and initiatives that you have in place? Because it sounds like it was down in Q4, you're assuming flat in 2016, and I know you have initiatives, but just you did insert the word primarily, so I'm guessing it's flat to down even outside of energy, utilities and other markets. If you could just help us reconcile that? Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. Sure, Jeff. Hey, it's Craig. Good morning. So, the comment was really around the impact from energy and utilities, and then some selective markets, most of which are very reliant on the energy and utility sector. That said, as Gene just alluded to in the answer to the last question, we have been very focused on improving sales productivity and we see great signs and we have great examples of large complements or large teams where we've seen significant improvements in productivity on a year-over-year basis. That was muted by some of these macroeconomics challenges that we are seeing. But as Gene said, we remain very confident that we're doing all the right things from a recruiting perspective, from a training perspective, and from a tools perspective that will continue to improve productivity into the future. Jeffrey Meuler - Robert W. Baird…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anjaneya Singh of Credit Suisse. Please proceed. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask on oil and gas, I guess first off. Could you characterize what your exposure is to oil and gas clients? I realize you've got some country exposure there also, so it might not be cut and dry, but if you could help us with that? And then if you could just perhaps also just talk about what is actually happening there? Is it the larger end of the spectrum of clients that's cutting back? Is it the smaller end? Are they cutting the number of seats? Cancelling subscriptions? And what are the price increases I guess that you're able to put in for the O&G clients that you are retaining? Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Hey, Anj. It's Craig. So, we wrap up oil and gas in our energy and utility sector. That's the way we characterize it here internally. And as we mentioned earlier, it's less than 5% of our total CV, specifically companies in that sector. And then Gene will take the second part of your question. Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Here's what's going on at kind of an operational level, which is companies in distress in the oil and gas sectors displayed today with the big bowl in prices, they're having budgets that are smaller. So instead of budgets that were growing last year, they're saying, okay, our exploration budget is lower, our HR budget is lower, our IT budget may be lower. And so, of course, they're looking to say, okay, how do we save money? And…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to ask about the Research contribution margins; they're a little bit lower than what we were modeling and so you mentioned that these were impacted by acquisitions, but just wanted to find out if there was anything else to call out there and if you could sort of size how much acquisitions impacted those Research margins. Thanks. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Sure, Toni. Good morning. Q4 is typically our lowest contribution margin quarter for Research. If you look back historically, it's typically always the lowest quarter we have because of a lot of travel and other things related to Symposium season. That said, there were two primary impacts of the gross contribution margin decline on a year-over-year basis. One, modest impact from the acquisitions. They run at modestly lower gross margins. Net margins are good overall, but the gross margins are a little bit lower. And then the second thing, there was an impact – and we saw this across the full year, but impacted us in Q4 as well, a little bit from foreign exchange as well. And so, while we are nicely naturally hedged, it isn't always perfect when you get down to Research – revenue Research, expense, et cetera. So if you look at, we were down 90 bps. I think about half was FX. A little bit, probably about a third was due to the acquisitions and a third due to some other stuff. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Great. And then just in the Events business, really strong guidance there. So, just wanted…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee of RBC Capital Management. Please proceed.

Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning. First question, the new business growth or bookings, I think it was sub 10% for the second quarter in a row and a sharp slowdown from the first half. I guess if that continues at that level that would likely point to further deceleration in contract value. But I know you haven't given that metric consistently till the second half of last year. So is part of this that just comps got more difficult or how do we think about that trending from here and what that might mean for CV going forward? Thanks. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Hey, Gary. How are you? So the CV growth is determined primarily by two things. The amount we retain, and the amount of new business we put on top of that. I think your characterization of the tougher compare, particularly in Q4, is accurate. We had an amazingly strong Q4 of 2014, which fueled us and gave us great incremental Research revenue growth as we headed into 2015. We had a strong Q4, as Gene mentioned, as we went through in our remarks. New business was a little bit lighter than we expected. Again, impacted also by some of the macro challenges that we described. So, as Gene mentioned, energy and utility was a double-digit grower for us and now it's dropped down to single-digit. Brazil was a strong double-digit grower for us, dropped down to modest double-digit growth. All those things also had an impact on new business growth. But again, we remain confident that we can continue to grow our new business growth at strong rates. Manage really strong retention and that will equate to strong productivity into the future.

Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. It doesn't seem to me that the energy or the weakness in some geographic regions is something that's going to change quickly. So what allows that new business to accelerate from here? Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's basically the fundamental piece is, as I talked earlier, which is there's this fundamental demand for help in addressing technology issues across the business. The thing that's going to drive the growth is, we grew our sales force by 15%. If you look at our pipeline going into the year, our pipeline is very strong, and that's what drives the new business growth, which is what kind of gives us confidence. A combination of we have great capacity, all the leading indicators on the count we've been hiring is that they are going to get off to a faster start we've had in the past, and a leading indicator in terms of our actual pipeline looks great as well. So we're pretty confident we're going to have a great new business year in 2016.

Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just one last one. As you think about the next few years, are there any gating factors to continuing the strategy you've used in recent years of debt financing a good portion of your buy-backs? Did the level of interest rates, and if they rise, does that matter to you? I don't know – do you look at your leverage ratio based on your U.S. profits since I think all your debt is here? And is that a factor as that's clearly been rising more than your total leverage ratio? Or are you very comfortable that total leverage remains low and that you can continue do this sustainably into the future? Thank you. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: It's a great question, Gary. So, we do look at it on a total leverage basis. We have gross debt of just over $800 million, net debt of about 1.1 times leverage. And again, we also have this great benefit of amazing free cash flow generation and so we are generating significant amounts of free cash flow year after year after year after year, and again, roughly 60% of that free cash flow gets generated here in North America. So we have that at our disposal. The other comment I'd make on the interest rate comment, we have locked in $700 million of our $800 million or $825 million worth of debt with interest rate swaps. So we're not – we don't have exposure on continued interest rate rises on that one and we'll continue to look at our capital structure, look at our free cash flow generation and look at other shareholder enhancing activities, whether they'd be share repurchases, acquisitions or both as we manage our capital structure on a go forward basis.

Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Sheldon of William Blair. Please proceed. Stephen H. Sheldon - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hey. In for Tim McHugh. Good morning. First, in the Consulting business, the gross margin has continued to trend down. I think it peaked around 40% back in 2010, but has continued to move down since then. I'm guessing a lot of that's the strong growth that you've seen in managing partner and consultant head count, but was just curious if you think that could reverse at some point and trend back up or if you view kind of the lower gross margin as more of a permanent structural change in the business. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Hey, Stephen. Good morning. It's Craig. You're right. The primary driver of those reductions in gross contribution margin have been the investment in managing partners. We've been growing that very aggressively, well faster than revenue. The goal of making those investments though is so that we can drive deeper relationships with our largest clients where we're doing longer engagements and repeat engagements, and inherently those have better economics over the long-term. So we continue to believe that this can be a 35% to 40% margin business for us and we manage it so that we – or we plan for it so that we do see modest margin improvements on a year-over-year basis. But again, the investment in MPs, we think is the real lever there for us to drive better, more consistent results for us and better, more valuable relationships for our clients. Stephen H. Sheldon - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the pace of share repurchases, it was a little slower in the second half of the year, so just wanting to know how you're thinking about share repurchases as you move into 2016. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. I mean we did over $0.5 billion of repurchasing in the year. Yes, it was heavily weighted towards the first half of the year, but we still did well over $500 million for the year. As we've talked about, share repurchases remain a strategic use of our cash flow and our balance sheet, and we'll continue to look at both share repurchases and acquisitions as the two primary uses. As we talked about, when we put the current authorization in place, we talked about it being a roughly 2.5 year to 3 year program, that's the way we still think about it. Stephen H. Sheldon - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks so much. Sorry to go back to the sales force productivity issue. I just wanted to clarify something. If we somehow or if you can take out the impact of the energy and utility sector, would your NCVI per AE have gone up in 2015? Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: So we probably would have seen a very, very modest decline on a year-over-year basis.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

But that's not something you expect to continue going forward, correct? Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Just to follow on that, which is, so the energy and utility sector is just the companies. If you look again, like I used Brazil since I've already talked about Brazil as an example. So in Brazil, because there – the whole economy has a lot of reliance on oil and gas – if the oil price goes down from $100 to $30 a barrel, it directly affects the oil companies but it affects government revenues; the government has less to spend. It affects all the companies that supply the oil companies. And so part of the factor we had was directly driven by the oil and gas sector itself. But the other thing is, if you're in a country like Brazil, it affects more than that. And to put it in perspective again, I want to drive home that we didn't see shrinkage or anything. In fact, Brazil was growing a bit above our average double-digit growth last – in 2014. In 2015, it had double-digit growth a little below our average growth. So, even in that tough environment, we had great growth there. But again, if you go from higher double-digit growth to a little lower double-digit growth, that has an impact on productivity. So it's not that we have things that are going from like great growth to negative, it's the double-digit just isn't quite as good as it was. And so that's the other small piece of it.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. That's fair enough. I got that. And just to shift gears to the Events segment for a second. Was there an issue in terms of the size of the events this quarter? Your average attendee per event went down a bit. I know you had two more events but was there a mix shift or a timing issue? Thanks. Craig W. Safian - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Our attendee growth in the quarter, Jeff, was 3%. I don't think you were in Orlando but, as you know, Orlando is our largest event where we actually sold it out for two years in a row. And so you don't see big attendee growth when we have a sell-out. We do see revenue growth because, again, we're attracting and targeting a higher quality of attendee and then we're able to get a higher price out of that. But no, no issue or no risk from the math you're doing. Q4 was a very strong quarter for us from an Events perspective and particularly from an attendee revenue growth perspective.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. Appreciate the color. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Gene Hall, Chief Executive Officer of Gartner. Please proceed sir. Eugene A. Hall - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I just returned from our annual kick-off meeting with our sales managers from around the world and our sales leaders are excited about our prospects for growth and feel well equipped for success in any economic condition. As a company, we're in a very strong position. We have more impact on end users and technology providers than any other company in the world, and we know how to be successful. The macroeconomic environment affects all companies, but Gartner is better prepared than ever to deal with these disruptions. We're entering the year with the highest number of sales people than ever before. Our recruiting processes are better than ever, and all the leading indicators on our people suggest the talent we have in our organization today is better than it's ever been. We're getting better, stronger, faster day after day, year after year. We have a vast market opportunity, a powerful value proposition, a winning strategy and an exceptional business model. Looking ahead, we're prepared for ongoing macroeconomic challenges in 2016 and I remain confident we'll deliver another great year. We're well positioned for accelerated sustained growth for years to come. I look forward to giving you a more detailed update across our business at our upcoming Investor Day. Thanks for joining us today.