Brian P. McKeon
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Bill. Let's turn to Slide 3, which highlights the key messages from today's review. We delivered solid operating performance in Q4, driven by consistent storage rental growth. Storage rental grew 5% on a constant dollar basis in the quarter, supported by consistent gains in North America and 12% growth in International, including benefits from our 2012 acquisitions in Brazil and Europe. Overall, growth trends were similar, with reported results constrained by lower service revenues. As expected, we saw about $3 million of negative impact from lower year-on-year recycled paper pricing, however, the impact was less than we've seen in recent quarters, and we've worked through the lapping of the significant price declines that began in Q4 2011. Adjusted OIBDA was in line with our full year guidance. Our profit results continue to be supported by International margin gains. As reviewed in our Q3 call, we saw impacts in Q4 from costs associated with accelerated facility transactions and a realignment within our sales and account management organizations, as well as from the true-up of accruals at year end. Overall, we finished the year on track with our expectations, supported by solid storage growth, strong International gains and continued efficiencies in capital investment. Today, we are reiterating our full year 2013 financial outlook for revenues, adjusted OIBDA and free cash flow. We're increasing our CapEx guidance to reflect the recent facility lease buyout and the relocation of our Boston headquarters that was announced after Investor Day. Additionally, we're updating our preliminary outlook for our REIT conversion costs to reflect a more informed view of the expenditures required to complete the project, particularly with respect to the International convergence. We're investing to ensure that we meet the January 1, 2014 deadline, including having our REIT-critical systems operating in third quarter of this year. Let's move on to Slide 4 to review our financial results in more detail. Slide 4 compares our results for this quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011. As noted, Q4 results were as expected, supported by 5% constant dollar storage rental growth. Enterprise revenues grew 2% on a constant dollar basis as our International segment continued to drive strong performance. International posted 10% constant dollar revenue growth, supported by 4% internal growth and benefits from our acquisitions in Brazil and Switzerland. North America posted flat constant currency revenue growth as a lower service revenues offset 2% storage rental gains. Foreign exchanges had a minimal impact in the quarter. Gross profit was $420 million in Q4, yielding a gross margin of 55.4%, down 210 basis points compared to the same prior year period. Storage gross margin decreased 120 basis points, reflecting costs related to accelerated facility transactions in the U.K. and in the Southeastern United States. And service gross margins were down year-over-year due to decreased recycled paper prices and impact from lower core service activities. Mixed impacts from 2012 acquisitions were also a contributing factor. Adjusted OIBDA was $207 million or 27.2% of revenues in Q4. Our underlying profit performance remained solid, supported by continued improvement in our International segment. In Q4, this improvement was offset by the negative impacts from the costs associated with the facility transactions I just described, the realignment within the sales and account management teams in North America, the integration of our 2012 acquisitions and the impact of year-end cost accrual true-ups. Lower paper prices and lower service activity were also contributing factors to year-on-year decline in adjusted OIBDA. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.20 per share compared to $0.33 in Q4 2011. The decrease was primarily related to lower adjusted OIBDA and increased interest expense related to our recent debt financing transactions in support of shareholder payouts and the REIT conversion. Adjusted OIBDA and adjusted EPS exclude the impact of costs associated with the REIT conversion. These costs reduced 2012 reported EPS by $0.07 per share. Reported earnings per share of $0.15 includes $18 million of REIT costs, $6 million of losses in asset dispositions and $2 million of other expense. These impacts were partially offset by the impact of a lower effective tax rate due to foreign currency losses and discrete tax items. Our structural tax rate for the quarter was 40%. Let's now take a closer look at our revenue growth on Slide 5. Slide 5 shows the components building to our overall revenue growth. Q4 and full year growth rates were in line with our full year expectations. For the quarter, constant dollar growth was solid at 2.5%. Overall, constant dollar growth for the year was at the midpoint of our 0% to 2% range, including the impact of lower paper prices. Excluding these effects, constant dollar growth for the year was a solid 2%. In Q4, storage rental grew 5%, driven by consistent performance in North America and continued strong growth in our International segment. North America reported 2.4% constant dollar storage rental growth, reflecting relatively flat Records Management volume and consistent pricing trends in the 1.5% to 2% range, with some additional benefit from solid data protection storage rental growth. International storage rental constant dollar growth was 12% for the quarter, reflecting sustained double-digit growth in Latin America and Asia-Pac and benefits from the 2012 acquisitions. Total services decreased 1% as expected headwinds in North American activity-based services and lower paper prices more than offset solid DMS growth and benefits from our 2012 acquisitions. Overall, North America service revenues declined 4% in the quarter, with 1% of that decline related to paper. Gains in DMS revenues were offset by decreased core service activity levels and lower revenues from special projects and ancillary service lines, including film and sound and fulfillment services. The International segment posted 8% service growth supported by acquisitions. In terms of components building to overall growth, storage rental internal growth at 3.2% for the quarter showed an improvement, as expected, compared to Q3. Net global Records Management volume was up 1.8% on a year-on-year basis. Service internal growth was minus 2%, and total revenue internal growth was roughly 1%. Acquisitions and foreign exchange changes combined to add about 1.5 points to our reported results -- growth results. Overall, our storage rental business remains durable, providing consistent results and a solid foundation for our overall revenue performance. Let's take a look at our storage rental performance over the last 12 quarters on Slide 6. Slide 6 shows our constant dollar storage rental growth over the past 4 quarters to the enterprise, as well as for our 2 operating segments. The stability and durability of our storage rental business drives the economics of our business. We've now reported 24 consecutive years of storage rental growth. As you can see in this chart, since 2009, our constant dollar enterprise storage rental growth has averaged 4% per the quarter while ranging between 2.5% and 5%. North America, which generates approximately 75% of our storage rental revenues, continues to deliver stable growth of 2%. Our strategy here is to sustain this level of growth by capturing opportunities in the unvended market and underserved verticals such as government. As we outlined at Investor Day, our target growth rate for North America storage rental is between 1% and 3%. Our overall storage rental growth is enhanced by our fast-growing International segment, which has averaged 9% constant dollar growth over the past 3 years. This performance is supported by strong organic growth and more recently, additional growth through acquisitions. In the more developed International markets, we'll continue to support the growth of the annuity as we are in North America. In addition, we'll look to expand in high-quality, high-growth emerging segments. Over the next 3 years, we expect to drive 5% to 9% storage rental growth overall in International. Our long-term focus is to sustain the durability of our storage rental business as the key driver of our overall economics and the foundation for the long-term growth of our cash flows. Let's now take a look at our full year profit results in Slide 7. Slide 7 looks at our full year performance compared -- for 2012 compared to 2011. In terms of our key financial metrics, we delivered results that reflect consistent business trends and the achievement of our financial goals. Reported revenue for the year was $3 billion, up 1% on a constant dollar basis, as solid storage gains offset impacts from lower recycled paper prices and declines in core service activity in developed markets. Adjusted OIBDA was down 3% year-on-year on a constant dollar basis. Lower paper prices pressured profits by about $30 million in 2012. As noted, at current prices, we worked through these tough comparisons. Year-on-year results were also impacted by discrete costs in Q4, including facility moves, costs associated with the realignment of our sales and marketing organization and the year-end true-up of accruals. These impacts offset gains driven by strong underlying International profit performance. Adjusted EPS was $1.21 per share, down 11% compared to 2011, reflecting lower adjusted OIBDA and higher interest expense incurred to support shareholder payouts and costs associated with the planned reconversion, which more than offset the benefits from fewer weighted average shares outstanding for the full year. 2012 capital spending was $182 million, including $54 million of acquired real estate and $13 million of REIT conversion CapEx. As a percentage of revenues, CapEx excluding real estate and REIT CapEx is 6.1%, in line with our capital efficiency goals. Free cash flow for the year was $347 million, solidly within our guidance range, compared to $467 million for 2011. The year-on-year decrease was as expected, reflecting lower adjusted OIBDA combined with higher cash taxes compared to low 2011 levels, higher interest expense in support of our shareholder payout program and a lapping of lower cash incentive compensation payments in 2011. The 2012 adjusted OIBDA and adjusted EPS results shown here exclude $34 million of costs associated with the REIT conversion. These costs reduced 2012 reported EPS by about $0.14. Note that 2011 adjusted OIBDA and adjusted EPS excluded $16 million of these costs and reduced reported EPS by about $0.05 per share. In addition to the $30 million of REIT-related CapEx I just discussed, we paid $80 million in taxes towards our D&A recapture liability. All told, these items would have reduced free cash flow by about $116 million year-to-date. We've included a slide outlining the actual and expected REIT costs and related expenditures in the appendix of this presentation. Let's now turn to Slide 8 to review our full year results by segment. Slide 8 shows key year-to-date metrics for each of our 3 segments compared to 2011. Consistent with our business strategy, we're sustaining high returns in our North America segment while continuing to build momentum in our International segment as a significant driver of profit and cash flow gains. North America continues to deliver high profits and strong cash flows. For the full year, our North American business segment reported revenues at $2.2 billion, supported by consistent 2% constant dollar storage rental gains. Despite the impacts of lower recycled paper prices, we sustained adjusted OIBDA margins of 42%. Adjusted OIBDA in North America was down year-on-year due to a decrease in paper revenues of $23 million, lower core service activity levels and costs associated with the facility transaction and the realignment in the sales and marketing organizations. We also sustained capital efficiencies in North America this year, spending at 4.5% of revenues excluding real estate. Our International segment continues to post strong constant dollar revenues, adjusted OIBDA and cash flow gains. Adjusted OIBDA increased 10% on a constant dollar basis. We're benefiting from cost improvement initiatives in Western European markets and strong profit performance in Asia-Pac. Excluding acquisition integration costs and the accelerated facility transactions in the U.K., International adjusted OIBDA margins expanded about 150 basis points this year. Benefits from productivity initiatives and from continued solid growth across our International portfolio have us on track towards our business goals of approximately 25% margins in 2013. Finally, corporate expenses were consistent with prior year levels, reflecting benefits from overhead cost control initiatives. Overall, we continue to drive strong operating performance across our portfolio. Let's now take a look at our debt statistics on Slide 9. Strong, consistent cash flow generation enables us to maintain a sound balance sheet. We're currently operating with a consolidated leverage ratio of 3.9x, within our targeted 3x to 4x leverage range. Our leverage ratio was increased over the past 2 years as planned to support shareholder payouts of $1.5 billion and expenditures in connection with our proposed conversion to a REIT over that period. As we've previously stated, the costs associated with REIT conversion, including tax payments, will temporarily and modestly push our leverage over the high end of our range -- of our target range. We're well positioned in terms of cash and financing capacity. At year end, liquidity was more than $900 million, with $243 million in cash and $667 million in additional borrowing capacity. Our strong cash flow supported continued advancement of our shareholder payout strategy. During the fourth quarter, we paid $47 million in regular quarterly cash dividends at a rate of $0.27 per share in addition to the $140 million cash portion of our $700 million special dividend. For the stock portion of this special dividend, we issued 17 million new shares. As we discussed on the Q3 call, management recommended and the board, at its regular scheduled meeting in December, agreed to maintain the $0.27 per share quarterly cash dividend rate rather than reduce it based on the new higher number of shares outstanding. This resulted in an increase to our dividend payout levels of nearly 10% over prior years. We're managing our balance sheet consistent with our strategy while advancing substantial payouts to shareholders, and we're well positioned to fund our business plan. That concludes our review of our Q4 2012 results. Overall, 2012 was another good year in which we continued to drive solid financial performance and position ourselves well for continued success in 2013 and beyond. Let's now turn to Slide 10 to review our 2013 outlook. Today, we're reiterating our full year 2013 revenue, adjusted OIBDA and free cash flow guidance while updating our outlook for CapEx, adjusted OIBDA and REIT costs. As we first presented at Investor Day last October, we're projecting 2013 reported revenues to be in the range of $3,020,000,000 to $3,100,000,000 or 0% to 3% constant dollar growth. We're maintaining our outlook for adjusted OIBDA to be between $905 million and $935 million on an operating basis. Storage rental growth is expected to remain strong at 4% on a constant dollar basis, consistent with the past 2 years. Service revenue growth is expected to be down moderately, driven by consistent trends in developed markets. Based on current prices, recycled paper should have a limited impact on 2013 growth. Adjusted EPS for 2013 is now expected to be in the range of $1.13 to $1.24. The change from Investor Day is primarily due to some additional D&A and interest expense, as well as to formally update for the full number -- for the number of diluted shares outstanding that we have after the E&P distribution. We provided some estimates at Investor Day, and this formally builds in the actual 17 million shares distributed. The calculation of adjusted EPS now assumes 190 million shares outstanding and a structural tax rate of 39%. We're increasing our full year capital expenditures to be approximately $290 million, including an estimated $75 million for real estate. The increase reflects the addition of $22 million for the relocation of our Boston headquarters that was announced in Q4, as well as about $11 million for the buyout of a lease in Dallas we completed earlier this year. The $75 million we expect to spend on real estate this year includes $30 million for the expansion of our data center capacity in our Pennsylvania underground facility that we discussed at Investor Day. Our outlook for operating free cash flow continues to be in the range of $320 million to $360 million as we expect cash tax efficiencies that will offset the net cash impact from the office move. As we've been highlighting, we anticipate significant onetime operating and capital costs associated with our potential conversion to a REIT. These costs relates to substantial system investments, legal and tax work, advisory fees and other miscellaneous costs to implement the proposed structure. Total operating expense and capital costs are now estimated to be in the $150 million to $200 million range, up about $50 million from earlier estimates. We expect the majority of these costs to be incurred in 2013. We've increased our preliminary outlook in this area to reflect a more informed analysis of the conversion project, particularly with respect to the scope and timing of our international conversions. We're investing to ensure that we meet the January 1, 2014 deadline, including having our REIT-critical systems operating on a test basis by the third quarter of this year. For 2013, we expect to incur between $65 million and $90 million of incremental expense, between $30 million and $45 million of CapEx and to pay $105 million to $115 million in additional taxes related to the depreciation recapture, all in connection with the REIT conversion. The impact of these items will be a reduction in reported EPS of $0.26 to $0.36 and use of cash of $185 million to $230 million. We'll continue to track and report these costs discretely from our underlying operating results. Slides laying out our outlook for line items below adjusted OIBDA as well as for the REIT-related items are included in our appendix. That concludes our review. And in summary, Q4 was a quarter of good financial performance, and we're well positioned to achieve our financial goals in 2013. We continue to execute against our business plans, sustaining high profits and cash flow in North America and driving strong growth and higher returns in our International business. And we continue to advance work in connection with the proposed REIT conversion as part of our long-term approach to enhance value creation for stockholders. Thanks, and we'd now be happy to take your questions.