Daniel Roberts
Analyst · B. Riley Securities. You may proceed
Thanks, Lincoln. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our quarterly earnings call. Thank you for dialing in. It's an interesting time in the market and we're pleased to have the opportunity to present both our results from the prior quarter, but also importantly, step you through how we're thinking about the short term as well as the medium and long term. So it's an exciting time for us, exciting time for the industry, so let's dive into it. So jumping straight through to Slide 3. Make sure everyone's read the disclaimer on Slide 2. So I think it's fair to say that the Bitcoin mining sector is reaching an inflection point. It's a very dynamic time in the market and we fielded a number of questions around why miners are underperforming the price of bitcoin over the recent months and what we're seeing is institutional interest returning to the space. But the question around why isn't miners necessarily? Or why aren't they necessarily moving with Bitcoin given it's meant to be some sort of proxy exposure? What's different this cycle? So from our perspective, we are seeing that the sector has matured. There are more ways for investors to express interest in Bitcoin. Miners that built their business around a HODL strategy now have more competition than ever for that business model. You're seeing institutional grade self-custody solutions, you're seeing the emergence of the ETFs. You're seeing companies like MicroStrategy accumulate Bitcoin through capital market products. In contrast, we're positioned as a low cost commodity producer focused on cash-on-cash returns for our investors and producing Bitcoin at low cash cost, circa $29,000 per bitcoin as we'll see in the coming slides. So Mining business models are under scrutiny. This is an environment in which we expect a low cost, strong cash flow business to thrive. So as you can see there on the right hand side, business fundamentals, they're coming into focus. Production costs, operational focus, capital allocation and the outlook for growth. We believe we're well positioned for market leadership in every aspect of those, and ultimately we view Bitcoin Mining as Gold Mining 2.0. Could I just ask that other speakers on the line from our side go on mute please? There's a bit of background noise. Thank you. So if we could then move to Slide 4. It's also an inflection point for our business. 31 exahash is weeks away. In fact, I believe that the last miner is going to be delivered in the next seven days. Installation commissioning will take a little bit longer than that, but the 31 exahash is now weeks away, making us one of the largest listed miners, just as Bitcoin is hitting an all-time high. However, those that know us, we're not stopping there. We are also pleased to announce that we are accelerating our expansion to 50 exahash into the first half of next year. Previously it was the second half. So we've been able to bring all that forward and continuing to invest to generate more Bitcoin at an expected cash cost of $29,000 per coin. The fundamentals of our business model have allowed us to continue to accelerate growth at low cost. Our strategy focusing on large scale projects, continuing to provide a lower execution risk in a rapid platform to expand. Years of planning and procuring long lead items to mitigate supply chain risks and finally our management capability to deliver. If we have set a target in the market, we hit it, and we will continue to do that. This is a business model now and this is a business in IREN where we believe we've hit that inflection point. We've hit the economies of scale now. While we will talk more on unit economics over the coming slides, at 31 exahash, we expect to be producing Bitcoin at an all in cash cost of $29,000 per coin. With those economics and those unit economics only to improve as we scale as power costs and operating leverage really start to kick in. In relation to AI and HPC, we've got almost 2,000 GPUs now operating combination of H100s, H200s, both NVIDIA generations. We're focused on contracting out this capacity and looking for opportunities to grow in a measured way based on robust contractual arrangements and demand that we're seeing in the market. In respect to AI colocation and other monetization opportunities, they're also being progressed in parallel. We have high quality assets that we believe will remain valuable in a power-constrained market with increasing competition from both Bitcoin mining and AI for this land and power. We will continue not to provide guidance on specific terms or timing given the uncertainties, given the nature that we are dealing with counterparties, it is not all within our control. However, we continue to progress negotiations with some very large counterparties and hyperscalers. We will update the market as appropriate and as we have news. In terms of what is within our control. As we know the majority of the new generation Blackwells from NVIDIA, those GPUs will require liquid cooling. So notwithstanding successful testing of our GPU clusters in free cooling environments, including at Childress, we will also be installing our liquid cooling infrastructure at both our Prince George and Childress data centers in the coming months to ensure we are ready to support this next generation of GPUs. This creates opportunities for the business both across our cloud platform as well as our colocation pathway. In terms of corporate and funding initiatives. So in terms of funding, it's clear to say market conditions have improved materially over recent months. More funding options are emerging beyond the ATM. We are focused, very focused on alternative funding instruments as part of funding our upcoming growth plans, for example convertibles and we'll continue to progress that over the coming months. In terms of becoming a U.S. domestic issuer we intend to transition to this status in 2025, reporting on a U.S. GAAP basis. We are also been working on potential inclusion in major U.S. indices for example the Russell 2000s in the near term, given the majority of our assets are in the U.S. Finally, our increased scale at 31 exahash and not long after that, 50 exahash combined with our non-HODL approach i.e. we don't hold Bitcoin on our balance sheet, we mine at expected all in cash cost of $29,000. It's anticipated to generate very substantial operating cash flows in the near term. As such, we believe this will support potential investor distributions in 2025. We're working through specific details around what that might look like. However, we wish to again signal our commitment and our focus on prudent capital management and generating strong cash-on-cash shareholder returns. So, moving along to Slide 6. A little bit more about Bitcoin Mining. So where we're at? We have been delivering consistent growth over the last couple of years. If we set a target, we have met it. We're now at 21 exahash above the 20 exahash previously guided and 31 exahash is just weeks away as I mentioned earlier. We're not stopping there. We are continuing 50 exahash in the first six months of next year. So we are committed to hitting these targets. We will maintain our disciplined approach to delivery, our focus on costs, our focus on safety. It's supported by our single site expansion at Childress where we have over 400 people on site who will continue the cadence of building out 50 megawatts of data centers every month. No M&A is required. It's all organic growth at cost. The land in Childress cost us a few million dollars. That is it. Everything has been self developed internally by our team. Proven people, proven delivery processes and a strategy to focus on large scale projects continues to provide lower execution risk, more certainty and a platform that allows us to rapidly expand at low cost. On the Mining Hardware side, you'll recall that we previously secured miner purchase options for S21 Pro miners at a fixed price of $18.90. These options were struck when Bitcoin was $65,000. It's taken the last six years to get our platform up to this stage. The vision to accumulate organic development of large scale sites, building a team and know-how, raising capital. We've now hit that inflection point just as we are seeing the real world really start to lag the digital world. There is significant megawatts, significant miners, significant capital and management expertise required from this point for the network, i.e., the hash rate at a global level to scale in parallel with the bitcoin price. Against this backdrop, there's now increasing competition for a number of those inputs. Transformers, land, power with the AI, traditional data center world now also competing for exactly the same core inputs. To play this out with a simple thought exercise, what happens if Bitcoin moves up to $150,000, 50% all of a sudden you need another 7000 megawatts of additional capacity, another $9 billion in CapEx, transformers, long-lead items, cables, networking, concrete, steel, all these things that take time that are fraught with risk. All of it to bring into the real world, real projects, real data centers, the ASICs, you cannot plug an ASIC into a high voltage transmission line. It just doesn't work. So we've set ourselves up to really become a leading force in Bitcoin Mining. On Slide 7, to really drill into this $29,000 cash cost per bitcoin, we have driven it down. It is happening, best-in-class efficiency at 15 joules per terahash from 22 in this recent September quarter. Expansion at low-power cost, Childress our average power cost is a tick over $0.03 since moving to spot price with our automated curtailment algorithm a few months ago. That is becoming a larger and larger proportion of our portfolio, driving down our average power cost accordingly. And then overheads, non-power costs, but all-in cost of our business, we're really starting to see the benefits of operating leverage come through. We'll talk more to this on coming slides, but it's effectively spreading our corporate cost base across a much larger number of exahash, a much larger number of expected Bitcoin mined. So finally, in terms of operating efficiency, we believe in building high-quality data centers that optimize operating conditions for our miners. It's really important to us that we maintain the highest levels of up-time and look after that fleet to maximize profitability. Moving on to Slide 8. Illustrative mining economics. Some of you would have seen this on Twitter previously, but one exahash of operating capacity costs IREN approximately $30 million to deliver. Against a market backdrop where capital markets are valuing that at almost four times that valuation $120 million. If you have the ability to deliver at $30 million to have something valued at $120 million, that in my simple mind, that makes a lot of sense to continue pursuing. We see investing in additional capacity is highly accretive. It's a really simple framework for thinking about this. The unit economics to cross-check that in terms of cash flow, $13 million of net illustrative adjusted EBITDA on a $30 million CapEx, it's around a two-year payback, again, making a lot of sense. So as we look in all-in cost to produce, you'll notice on the right-hand side, a step-up in renewable energy certificate costs as we continue expanding at Childress. This highlights our commitment to 100% renewable energy. We're seeing the sustainability focus really come to the fore. There are lots of different claims out in the market around supporting renewables. At Childress, notwithstanding 80% of the network in that area is renewable, you need the certificates. If you do not have certificates, you are not operating with renewable energy. At the moment, a wind farm or a solar farm evacuates power into the grid, the commodity is bifurcated into two components. One is the electron that trades alongside black and brown power. The other is the certificate. If you do not buy those certificates, you are not renewable because someone else will own those certificates, and we'll be double counting it. So this has absolutely been a critical part of our strategy. We've bought it for every electron since day one, and we will continue to do that. A key part of how we are also thinking about growth is accretion on a per share basis. How do we drive value for every shareholder in our business? One example of how we're thinking about this is in the bottom right-hand table. We've shown this analysis in terms of adjusted EBITDA per share, which highlights very strong accretion metrics as we continue to scale from 31 exahash to 50 exahash. We have also set out some illustrative share price levels at which equity is raised. Whether that be through ordinary equity, convertibles, or other alternative funding structures. We've seen a number of convertibles launched over recent months with creative strike prices and we'll continue to look at that as one of our pathways to raise additional capital. So yes, growing from $400 million to $700 million of illustrative EBITDA in the top right-hand corner, is super exciting. But more exciting for us is the accretive nature of this growth and our continued commitment to drive cash-on-cash shareholder returns. On that note, I'd like to pass over to Kent to talk about AI and HPC.