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Ideal Power Inc. (IPWR)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 27, 2017

$3.81

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Ideal Power Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Conference Call and Webcast. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Chris Tyson, Managing Director of MZ North America. Sir, please go ahead.

Chris Tyson

Management

Thank you and good afternoon. I would like to thank you all for taking the time to join us for Ideal Power’s fourth quarter and full year 2016 conference call. Your hosts today are Mr. Dan Brdar, Chairman and CEO as well as Mr. Tim Burns, the company’s Chief Financial Officer. Dan will provide a business update, which will cover partner announcements, product updates, while Tim will discuss the financial results. A press release detailing these results crossed the wires this afternoon at 4 PM Eastern today and is available on the company’s website, idealpower.com. Following management’s prepared comments, we will open the floor to questions for those of you who are dialing in for today’s call. Before we begin the formal presentation, I would like to remind everyone that statements made on the call and webcast, including those regarding future financial results and industry prospects are forward-looking and maybe subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the call. Please refer to the company’s SEC filings for a list of associated risks and we would also refer you to the company’s website for more supporting industry information. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Dan Brdar. Dan, the floor is yours.

Dan Brdar

Management

Thanks, Chris. 2016 was a pivotal year for Ideal Power as we made significant progress with our commercialization strategy for our Power Packet Switching Architecture and they introduced new products that expand our addressable markets and strengthen relationships with several existing and new system integration partners. Despite the disruption in our initial target market in California resulting in weak 2016 product sales, several other financial and operational metrics trended well that give us confidence as we commence our domestic and international rollout of our new Stabiliti and SunDial products in 2017. On the operational front, we established key partnerships with some of the largest players in the commercial and industrial storage segment, introduced new products, expanded our product capabilities, entered new geographical markets, diversified our revenue base, expanded our addressable markets and signed our first major licensing agreement with a Fortune Global 500 company, Flex and their subsidiary, NEXTracker. On the financial front, we experienced significant headwinds in 2016 that led to poor product sales in our core marketing of California driven by the delay in the California’s Self Generation Incentive Program. As the sixth largest economy in the world and a leader for climate action and renewables, California represents the large market opportunity for Ideal Power products and I know many of our shareholders expressed concern with delay to launching these subsidized storage projects. As many of you know, the California Public Utilities Commission and the California legislature have resolved the programmatic issues from last year and in fact strengthened the program considerably increasing the storage target by 500 megawatts to 1.8 gigawatts by 2020 and doubling the total incentive dollars available for storage projects in the state for calendar years 2017 through 2019. In discussion with our system integration partners, they are now working with the close projects…

Tim Burns

Management

Thank you, Dan. I will run through the fourth quarter and full year 2016 financial results. Product revenue in 2016 was $1.6 million or a decrease of 62% compared to product revenue of $4.3 million in 2015. Product revenue for the fourth quarter was $371,000 or a decrease of 62% compared to $967,000 in product revenue for the fourth quarter of 2015. The decrease in revenue was driven by the disruption in our initial target market in California that Dan mentioned earlier. As we have noted on prior calls, our revenue and the revenue for the storage market in general will be lumpy in the short-term as it is still an early market. As the addressable market continues to mature and expand and we diversify into other more established target markets, we would expect much of this quarter-over-quarter variability in the market to SM providing a more stable revenue base. Looking forward, we expect the mid-2016 resolution of the SGIP delays, delayed third quarter favorable changes in the SGIP program, the expansion of addressable markets in the U.S. outside of California, our entry into the Australian market planned for later this year and the recent certification and availability of our SunDial and Stabiliti Series 30-kilowatt advanced power conversion systems to drive meaningful revenue growth beginning midyear. Due to the expected timing of growth in our initial target markets, we thus expect revenue to be heavily back half loaded in 2017. Gross margins were negative 19% in 2016 compared to 9% gross margins in 2015. Gross margins in the fourth quarter were negative 10% compared to 1% gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2015. 2016 margins declined significantly due to a one-time $0.3 million inventory charge from the discontinuation of our legacy IBC-30 battery converter in the third quarter. Our…

Dan Brdar

Management

Thanks, Tim. We see the standalone storage space already in transition, who have new well-capitalized players entering and small players who did not bring project financing struggling to compete. Some of these solution providers both large and small will succeed [indiscernible]. Our objective is to capture as many of the potential solution providers as possible and use their collective market feedbacks to drive our product offerings and product roadmap. The groundwork for the industry is being laid both domestically and internationally with some markets such as the U.S. being driven first by the commercial and industrial and utility segments and others where the residential market will transact first. All of these markets are being driven by the macro trend of rapidly declining battery costs, greatly expanded manufacturing capacity for batteries and the growing incorporation of storage and state level objectives and utility planning for both behind-the-meter and in front-of-the-meter applications. Based on discussions we have been having with our market channel partners, we have simplified our product roadmap eliminating development efforts that do not have a clear line of sight to near-term growth. While it may result in some missed opportunities in the market as a small team, we need to remain very focused on the opportunities that provide the best near-term opportunity for scale that allow us to contain our costs. The emergence of the Solar Plus storage market is the segment we expect to begin transacting this year. We intend to lead this initiative through our licensing arrangement with Flex and NEXTracker and expect to expand that relationship this year and engage with others as well. One of our planned initiatives for later this year is the electric vehicle fast-charging market. Our PPSA technology brings unique benefits due to its features small size and footprint and our ability…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Hi Dan. Hi Tim. So it sounds like you got a fair amount of confidence in a ramp here in the back half, I mean when you look at that, is that mostly related to SGIP or maybe and you have talked about some of them, but just when you think about 2017 areas that might impact that and then just kind of a follow-on there to SGIP just to confirm, are you seeing your partners, are they closing on projects or is that something you need to see here to reach the back half ramp that you are expecting?

Dan Brdar

Management

As we look at what our revenue looks like based on the modeling we have done discussion with partners, we see a diversification away from just California in the SGIP program. The SGIP program I think is useful and it creates great compelling economics. But there is nothing as time bound on them and we have seen that these markets go slowly and there is no danger of incentive funds going away. So as we look at where the ramp is going to come from, it’s really going to come from other things coming into the mix like the SunDial product and launch of what NEXTracker is doing projects outside of California for things like microgrids and things like we are doing here in Australia and on the East Coast, so that we are really diversifying away from the exposure that we have to adjust the California and SGIP driven projects.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Got it. That’s all – maybe just turning to Sonnen and that partnership just maybe early view of the pipeline and I guess is that in light of the fact that they have just announced that they are coming to the U.S. and will have a manufacturing presence there, just how you think the C&I market with that partner is developing?

Dan Brdar

Management

They have made it clear that they were launching their residential product first, which they have done. The facilities that they have got to land actually is going to cover both residential and the C&I space. They have a design for the C&I products, they have actually taken it to some of the shows. They are getting through the residential launch here first before they do the commercial launch. But we do have products that we ship to them, but in terms of putting the same level of fanfare around commercial as they did residential they are yet, but we expect to see that in the not too distant future.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Okay. And maybe this one last clarification for me, so on the variable frequency drives is that still maybe we should think of that being paused to an extent just because it will – they don’t incorporate B-TRAN, so you got to get B-TRAN?

Dan Brdar

Management

Exactly, I mean because variable frequency drive is a more material market if we are going to try and come into that market and attract one of the major players there. We really need to bring the absolute state-of-the-art technology which means that really should be a B-TRAN based power converter.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Got it, okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Colin Rusch

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much. And then guys could give us a sense that when you are expecting some sell into the channel, at this point clearly you have gained or won a tremendous amount of share within stationary storage market, but I am curious about just pacing of deal flow and what you are seeing at this point on that ramp for the...?

Dan Brdar

Management

When we looked at it Colin what’s been happening with just deal flow in this space, particularly second half of ‘16, we started to see some of the utility projects that have been announced 1 year or 2 years earlier. We are actually finally transacting on the commercial side and commercial industrial side we still see the transaction rate of the people that are capturing the end customers is being slow. We expect that to improve in ‘17, because a lot of the uncertainty around the self-generation incentive programs and other things that were driving some of the economics have been resolved and we saw lower cost batteries come out from both LG and Samsung which the market was expecting because they have signaled it long at advance. So I think a lot of customers love the system and their integrators basically said well, why buy the previous generation batteries when there are something higher performing and lower cost coming in the near-term. So ‘16 as we looked at what actually got deployed it were some high profile projects that has been announced quite a while ago and a lot for the C&I space, but based on the level of activity, we expect to see that change in ‘17 as people are back now trying to close with their end customers. And we will benefit as they turnaround an order equipment.

Colin Rusch

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Great. And then I am curious about what’s happening with corporate campuses and educational campuses, certainly there has been a lot of interest and resiliency around those sorts of properties as well as the sustainability and renewables and the economics have really caught off at this point, are you seeing more wind plus storage type systems at corporate campuses, because the interest level in microgrids accelerate, what can you give us on those two end markets?

Dan Brdar

Management

Yes. It is an area where microgrids in particular are something that’s being pursued simply because they really want to have places like the campuses be some place for students are safe from any disruptions in the power supply. The project that we do with EVgo the fast charging project coupled with buffer batteries was actually done at UC San Diego. And there were some other projects that were going on there but were distributing generation type using batteries yet. But its clearly I think something we are going to see more and more as people look to make some of these facilities that have significant bodies of people on them 24/7 be more secure in terms of just the power supply.

Colin Rusch

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then a follow-up question from me, as you are looking at taking the B-TRAN into commercial applications, the designers of the systems that will use the technology, how engaged are you at this point now that you have gotten down the road pretty far with the packaging and the final designs?

Dan Brdar

Management

Well, we really want to show this first in our own power converter. I think we have got to show people that we are actually using it in an actual application as part of our own long-term cycling and also in terms of what the real benefit can be of the device when you put into a power converter. So, we really want to get to the point where we actually have a prototype of the power converter that incorporates the B-TRAN before we really get too far with those other folks. And also we want to make sure that we have enough lifecycle testing data that makes them comfortable that has worth them going into a design cycle.

Colin Rusch

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot.

Dan Brdar

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Jeff Grampp with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, guys.

Dan Brdar

Management

Hi, Jeff.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dan, wanted to get maybe a little bit more on the EV side of things, I guess that’s kind of a newer one to hear from for you guys on my end. Just kind of wondering how you think that opportunity kind of scaling up and can you just kind of give us a sense for what type of news flow we should expect as you guys progress down that path?

Dan Brdar

Management

Yes. We actually have started to meet with some of the providers in that space to really understand what they are looking for, for the system, what the power converter needs to do and what the scope needs to be from the power converter or supplier. It’s pretty clear from the discussion we have been having so far is the size of the fast-charging installations are going to get larger and larger. It’s really driven by the fact that people want to be able to charge their vehicles in a much shorter period of time, not take 4 hours or overnight or even an hour, they want to drive to the 15 to 20 minute kind of size range, which really drives the size of the power converter. We are going to leverage some of the product design work that we have already done and some that we are actually having in the plan, because we can move to a EV charging product really leveraging our core power converter that we are using for the standalone storage market. So, we just want to make sure that we understand what the partners are looking forward from us, where they see their scope stopping, how we have to communicate with the charging and billing software that they are going to put over this. So, we are very much in the product definition stage. So, it’s really something that we are going to be doing in the back half of the year leveraging another product design that we are working on right now.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay, great detail. And then just thinking about I guess kind of the ramp here in ‘17 and associated margins, it sounds like I guess there is a couple of things kind of working in your favor with getting some of these legacy costs in the rearview, but then maybe as SunDial ramps up, you guys kind of alluded to maybe lower margins on potentially at least on that side of the business. So, can you guys kind of give us maybe any incremental sense for how we should expect margins to progress throughout ‘17?

Tim Burns

Management

Yes, it will be very dependent on the timing of revenue, but from looking at the first half of the year in particular, we are launching here right now we just recently received certification on the SunDial and Stabiliti. Just like we have seen with our couple, last two product launches, there is typically about 3 to maybe 5-month period after initial launch room product where that specific product has lower margins and that’s just due to the fact that our initial builds are small volume builds. So, we are not getting the benefit of a lower cost for a larger order commitment. So that will challenge margins over Q1 and Q2. As we look at the back half of the year, revenue will obviously help from the perspective of – although we don’t have that much overhead within costs that will eat through the overhead pretty quickly, we saw 2015 with just over $1 million in revenue. Our margins started to be in the 10% to 15% range. Our Stabiliti product will be at margin levels that support those kinds of numbers. The SunDial, if we sell a SunDial without a storage port that will definitely be depressed margins, which is very price competitive for a PV inverter. With the storage port, it still won’t be quite as high as the microgrid capable Stabiliti product, but it won’t necessarily be that far off and we expect actually probably most of our sales of the SunDial to include the storage port. It sounds like most customers are interested in having the storage immediately not waiting to do the sales upgrade.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. And then last one for me and sorry, if I missed this in the prepared remarks, but on the backlog, did you guys disclose what that number was at year end?

Tim Burns

Management

It was $5.5 million at year end.

Jeff Grampp

Analyst · Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay, perfect. That’s all for me. Thanks for the time guys.

Dan Brdar

Management

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question from Carter Driscoll with FBR.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

Good afternoon, guys.

Dan Brdar

Management

Hi, Carter.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

First question, could you maybe at a high level and I know you gave quite a bit of detail then, Tim, but at a high level kind of prioritize your either product or project spend within your core buckets, over say next 3 to 6 months versus all of 2017? Is this Solar Plus than EV standalone microgrid just kind of trying to get a sense of where the pull-through was going to come from, obviously, there is bit of a solar ramp in C&I than you initially envisioned, trying to get a sense at a high level? And I have a couple of follow-ups.

Tim Burns

Management

Are you talking about the revenue spend or the R&D spend to support it?

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

To start with the R&D and then kind of work their way into just timing of when you are going to see pull-through beyond Solar Plus storage, I mean you have alluded to a little bit in the SunDial ramp, you have talked a little bit about potential ARM community charging, it doesn’t sound like is it 2017 revenue event? Just trying to get a sense of the cost versus the pull-through in the revenue side in the big bucket?

Tim Burns

Management

So, the good thing about our technology is it the platform. So, we will be probably the main focus or the largest focus I should say of our R&D spend this year will be on our 125 kilowatt product. We will be launching a two-port and three-port version of those products here in 2017. That product will be the base product for the EV charging product. So, we will basically share the same core hardware for the EV charging project. So, we are able to leverage that R&D spend over multiple markets. So, that will be for – could be used for standalone storage, could be used for microgrids potentially for Solar Plus storage and also that will be the hardware with some additional firmware for the EV fast-charging market. So that will be the largest area for our R&D spend. Second would probably actually be the B-TRAN, we have down-selected to one semiconductor fab, but that’s something that we will probably spend it similar to 2016 levels on the B-TRAN. We are through a lot of this spend now with certification on the SunDial and Stabiliti products. And on the SunDial, we may continue to look at that as try to even cost reduce that even more here in the future, which may drive a little bit of R&D spend. In terms of pull-through electric vehicle contributions are really we are talking about 2018, 2017 will be about growth in Solar Plus storage for us, particularly in the second half of the year. Hopefully, a pickup here in the standalone storage market in California, but also outside of California, including the East Coast and then the microgrid market. So, JLM, for instance, was an order that’s largely for the microgrid market that was for deliveries from 12 months from orders. So, we will be seeing that order flow and we see actually pretty good demand from the microgrid side. So, it will definitely be a mix of the three. It’s actually possible that Solar Plus storage maybe the largest contributor of the three for 2017

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

Perfect, that’s helpful. If you look at Dan maybe a question for you, if you look at some of the larger system integrators and system developers, certainly a little bit longer timeframe from kind of initial discussions to when you think you might get first commercial orders, is it – I mean, obviously without GM, Samsung introducing the cheaper batteries, people really waited, you had Tesla come out and really depressed the price of their next generation power wall and power pack. Is that – is it still kind of a waiting game? I mean, what in your opinion is the biggest hurdle to getting the C&I market going? Is it a combination of all factors? Is it still financing and changing business models of some of these guys, just kind of the natural headwinds you have with a new type of technology adoption? Just trying to get your sense of timing internally your expectations versus kind of on the ground orders kind of a lateral question to what I am talking about, is just there is so limited visibility from our perspective sometimes when you have these great discussions and then what is actually getting people to pull the trigger? Any color will be helpful.

Dan Brdar

Management

For the larger players that are coming into the space, folks like NSC, Mercedes and others, while they bring a lot of credibility and they bring brand recognition and they certainly either bring your own financing or are financeable because of who they are, for them to go through the process of bringing a system out takes time. If you think about something like Mercedes who is known for quality when they go through and select their suppliers, it’s a long process where you are spending months and months in the lab as they bring your product out and make sure they understand it. They have tested it for liability. They then have to go and design an integrated system. And then they have to take that integrated system in some cases through a certification of its own or certainly through many operating cycles to be comfortable that they can stay behind the system because one of the things that the players bring that the small players don’t is they typically want to step up and provide performance guarantees of the system or well guarantee the saving to the end customer. So for the larger players I think it’s just the nature of how they have to rollout a system to protect their brand and the people make the guarantees that help differentiate them and make them financeable. I think in terms – at the customer level there is really two things that are happening. If you look at the end customers, what is it’s still very much an education process for a lot of businesses who really have nothing to do with energy storage I mean all they know is they have got electric bills that’s higher than it was last year and that’s higher than a year before. So you have to reach them, you have to educate them and look for those customers that have the ability to scale. And with a lot of noise about what’s going on in batteries, it’s still an for them to basically to do nothing because the thought may be, well, with all this money that’s flowing into these battery factories once the system be cheaper for me next year than it is this year, but I think you will see a little bit of that dynamic going on as well.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

And then you alluded too maybe in last question, alluded to some of the auto OEMs may be getting behind I don’t know whether you were referring to going to be the standardization on fast charging product or actually may be potentially putting dollars to work to help, develop the marketplace, maybe characterize their potential involvement into our financing or maybe you can comment on the recent issues in California to now push storage in new residential construction?

Dan Brdar

Management

For fast charging there is a couple of things that are happening. One is there are actually some mandated investments that need to be made. Energy, basically in the settlements that they had with California Public Utility Commission from some of the market activities several years ago has a commitment in terms of how many fast chargers they need – how many chargers they need to put into the California infrastructure as part of that settlement. Volkswagen as part of the issues they had with reporting diesel emissions falsely has reached us, where they have got to spend a lot of money building out electric vehicle charging networks here in the U.S. was part of the deal they made with U.S. regulators. The auto manufacturers though they have all come together and they are pooling money and agreeing on the standards to collectively mitigate the risk of Tesla has been building after a charging network and they have been using their own standard and they really hadn’t do that to enable them to sell parts, but the other auto manufacturers I mean they already have combustion based cars, they can sell, this is just part of their broadening out what they are going to do in terms of where the markets are naturally going with the luxury people so they have a chance to work together and say, okay what is the charging standard we want to agree to, how do we pool the money to actually buildup the infrastructure because we don’t – each one to do it ourselves. We can always do it more collaboratively if we form an alliance and they have actually done that and they are now starting to put money to work to actually start to identify the high profile science work. It’s a great opportunity that you are close to hardware infrastructure, that you are close to tie into the grid, the high value sites are the ones that they are going to start to tackle here to build out the network that they are going to be able to use for all their electric vehicles regardless of whether you are GM or Ford or European manufacturers. They are really approaching it on a collaborative fashion because of the magnitude of the investment.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst · FBR.

Perfect. I will the first line offline. I appreciate all the color guys. Thank you.

Dan Brdar

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today’s question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to the management for additional closing or prepared – additional or closing remarks.

Dan Brdar

Management

I just want to thank everybody for joining us today and thank you for your continued support. And we look forward to updating you on our next call.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.