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Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 6, 2025

$37.39

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is your conference operator. Welcome to the Intrepid Potash, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Evan Mapes, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Evan Mapes

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss and review Intrepid's third quarter 2025 results. With me today is Intrepid's CEO, Kevin Crutchfield; and CFO, Matt Preston. During the Q&A session, our VP of Sales and Marketing, Zachry Adams will also be available. Please be advised that comments we'll make today include forward-looking statements as defined by U.S. securities laws. These are based upon information available to us today and are subject to risks and uncertainties that are more fully described in the reports we file with the SEC. These risks and uncertainties could cause Intrepid's actual results to be different from those currently anticipated, and we assume no obligation to update them. During today's call, we will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operational measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in yesterday's press release and are available at intrepidpotash.com. I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Kevin Crutchfield.

Kevin Crutchfield

Analyst

Thank you, Evan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest and attendance for today's earnings call. I'm pleased to report that Intrepid sustained its strong financial performance in the third quarter. This was highlighted by a net income of $3.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $12 million, which compares to a net loss of $1.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $10 million last year. Outside of the record pricing we saw in 2022, our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $45 million represents our best start since 2015. I'd like to take the time on our call to specifically recognize all of our employees and congratulate them on this excellent set of results, both for this quarter and year-to-date. Our strong results were primarily driven by 2 key factors: first, higher pricing in Potash and Trio as we realize the entirety of the first half increases in both segments in quarter 3. And second, our higher production over the past year has led to better unit economics. Both Potash and Trio improved our cost of goods sold per ton by low-single-digit percentages during the quarter and year-to-date our Potash cost of goods sold improved by 9% to $327 per ton, while in Trio, the same figure improved by 15% to $238 per ton. For Trio, specifically, our production has been consistently exceeding our expectations quarter after quarter, and we're confident we can continue to sustain these higher run rates, which should further improve our unit economics in 2026. Turning to market commentary. While sentiment in U.S. agriculture had softened over the past few months, there are some green shoots emerging. This was, of course, highlighted by last week's trade deal with China, which included soybean purchase commitments and yesterday's follow-through where they also confirmed they would remove retaliatory tariffs on certain…

Matt Preston

Analyst

Thank you, Kevin. Starting with our Potash segment. We delivered another quarter of solid results, primarily underpinned by improved pricing and higher sales volumes. Our Q3 average net realized sales price for potash totaled $381 per ton as we fully capture the approximately $60 per ton increase for sales into agriculture markets compared to the first quarter. Compared to the prior year, our higher sales volumes of 62,000 tons in the third quarter were driven by the increase in production over the past 12 months. As we noted on last quarter's call, during the third quarter, we did delay our production at HB with the goal of maximizing late season evaporation, which was the reason for our third quarter potash production decreasing to 41,000 tons. Despite the reduced production, we're still experiencing solid year in economics in potash particularly when you consider the other revenue streams of salt, magnesium chloride and brine that enhance our cash flows. In terms of segment gross margin, our Q3 figure of $6.3 million was approximately $2.2 million higher than last year. And year-to-date, our segment gross margin totaled $13.6 million, which compares to $13 million in the same prior year period. Due to the above average rain at HB in the summer of 2025, we expect our annual potash production next year to be in the range of 270,000 to 280,000 tons. Moving on to Trio. In the third quarter, we sold 36,000 tons at an average net realized sales price of $402 per ton. The strong pricing was driven by the continuation of supportive potash values and improved realization of low chloride pricing premiums in key markets and also reflects realization of first half price increases which totaled approximately $60 per ton since the start of the year. As for the lower Q3…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Justin Pellegrino

Analyst

This is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. I just wanted to touch on the AMAX Cavern and the permits. Can you give us an idea of what the CapEx would be associated with the injection well in the pipeline should those permits be obtained? And then within the overall capital allocation priorities for next year, I imagine this is impacting your decisions and how you're planning on going forward. But can you just give us an idea of where that falls within the potential for returning any other excess cash back to shareholders or any other projects that you might be taking on?

Matt Preston

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the question, Justin. As we continue to evaluate the HB AMAX Cavern, if you recall, that capital will be spread out over a couple of years. Certainly disappointed that the cavern didn't have brine when we got the injection well or the extraction well, excuse me, drilled in the summer of '25. But as we evaluate it, I mean, the capital spend, it will really just kind of like I said, I mean, be over a couple of years. And kind of how that plays out is something we'll have a little more color on here as we get to the first part of the year. I mean, Kevin, I'll let you touch on the capital.

Kevin Crutchfield

Analyst

Yes. Yes, Justin. Thanks for your question on capital returns. I mean, I think the answer is consistent with the past. What we're really aimed at doing is continuing to reinvest in these core assets like we talked about before, to establish a position of resiliency, consistency, predictability, et cetera. So you've got repeatable results year-over-year-over-year. I think once we get to that point and are generating predictable steady free cash flows and cash flows, then that's when we can enter a period of what does a capital return policy begin to look like. And as we've said before, it's something that the Board registers very clearly and squarely with them, and it's something we talk about routinely. So I hate to give you the same answer, but it is the same answer. And we're kind of on the path as we begin to examine that going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lucas Beaumont with UBS.

Lucas Beaumont

Analyst · UBS.

So farmer economics has sort of been pressured in the U.S. There have been concerns around demand destruction kind of across some of the nutrients. So I just wanted get your view on sort of how your order book is looking for both Potash and Trio and if you're seeing any indications of that at all? Or it seems like a nonissue in terms of cost cutting from the growers so far?

Zachry Adams

Analyst · UBS.

Lucas, this is Zachry. I appreciate the question. I think first on Trio, as Matt noted in his remarks, we saw a really good response to the fill program we released last week there. So order book looks really strong on that front, and we're really fully committed for fourth quarter at this point there. And then on the potash side, a similar story. Order book looks good. We're almost fully committed here for the fourth quarter versus our guidance values. And -- and the 1 thing I'll highlight is just the diversity of our potash mix between our feed sales, industrial and the geographies that we focus on. So that insulates us a bit if there is a slower start, as Matt said, to demand for fall in the Corn Belt, for example, and we feel good about where we're sitting today.

Lucas Beaumont

Analyst · UBS.

Great. And I guess just as a follow-up then on the new well at AMAX. So I guess, could you maybe just give us a bit more detail around I guess, what the pathway forward would be. So if you get kind of -- if you get the permit in the first quarter, like when would you kind of look to sort of execute on that? And then what would sort of be the next steps if that's either successful or sort of not successful to then continue kind of moving the project forward?

Matt Preston

Analyst · UBS.

Yes. I look to provide a little more color, Lucas. I mean depending on the permitting, we did the extraction well. It's about $5 million we spent on that. There's certainly a little more work to completely put that in service with pipeline. It'll only depend on timing of permitting and when we want to put the injection well in and what that time looks like to get that cavern full. When it comes to an injection well, it's about $5 million to $6 million for the well, a few million dollars for injection pipeline. But as far as exact timing of when that will spend and when that final completion capital around the extraction well will happen, that's something that I just will have more color on here as we get a little more clarity on permitting into the first part of 2026.

Lucas Beaumont

Analyst · UBS.

Great. And then just, I guess, while the potash volumes are kind of going to be impacted and be a bit lower heading into '26 in the near term, when should we sort of start to see the negative kind of cost absorption there flowing through? I don't know if you can kind of give us a view on sort of what portion of your cost base there in potash, you sort of view as fixed versus durable maybe to kind of help with that as well.

Matt Preston

Analyst · UBS.

Yes. I mean given the slightly lower production guide here in '26, we'll start to see, all else equal, some higher cost per ton here in the first quarter as we start to start harvesting the tons that were laid down in our ponds in the summer of '25. I think it's probably 5% to 7% increase for the full year cost per ton for potash compared to '25, which we're pleased is kind of offset by that improvement in our Trio segment.

Lucas Beaumont

Analyst · UBS.

All right. And then I guess just in Trio, I mean you mentioned at the start that the pricing there has continued to be very attractive and they're sort of trading kind of in line with potash at the moment. How do you kind of see that dynamic that are playing out as we sort of move through 2026?

Zachry Adams

Analyst · UBS.

Yes. Lucas, I think we continue to see strength on Trio, and it's really due to the components of that product. Obviously, kind of year-to-date, we've seen strength across the potassium markets. And not just on the potash side as well on the SOP side, too, where we're seeing a greater realization of that low chloride K value in the Trio. And then kind of pivoting over to the sulfate component of Trio, we did see a bit of a seasonal adjustment in the summer as expected. But just looking at sulfur values overall, they're starting to trend back up here in the fall, and we think that provides support going into Trio into 2026 as well.

Lucas Beaumont

Analyst · UBS.

Great. And then just lastly on Oilfield Services, I mean, it's sort of in a tough water sales environment there that you called out with the low activity levels in the quarter. So how is kind of -- is the fourth quarter kind of tracking the same? And I guess, how should we kind of think about the outlook there for that business into '26, both on the sale side and I mean like you saw, you saw a fair bit of margin pressure there in the quarter as well, which I'm assuming the bulk of that is probably tied to the sales decline. But I mean, if there's anything else there to maybe roll out for us to kind of just help frame how we should think about the potential earnings if we're sort of running at a lower sort of sales level kind of going into next year?

Matt Preston

Analyst · UBS.

Yes. I mean Q3 was certainly quite a bit lower, particularly when we compare it against last year's record frac. I mean, we're very exposed to kind of the drilling activity that's on our feed land there, and it's really kind of feast or famine with some of those bigger drilling jobs. As we look into Q4, we certainly expect it to be down a bit compared to what we saw in the first half of the year, where we were pretty consistent margins around $1.3 million and $1.6 million. So some improvement over Q3, but we see still a slower water environment here in the fourth quarter and likely into the first part of '26.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Jason Ursaner with Bumbershoot Holdings.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst

Just for Kevin, it's been, I guess, nearly a role since your were -- nearly a year since you were announced in the CEO role. But I think you've been pretty clear on the priority in terms of consistency of earnings, sustainability. Just looking at the results, it does feel like a lot of that work to get back to structural profitability, at least the heavy lifting is kind of either done or kind of on the path. So I guess, in your mind, what else sort of -- what are the big steps that you're looking for to kind of get you there?

Kevin Crutchfield

Analyst

Well, I mean, the focus has been intense just around the core assets. And look, I'll tell you that while we're posting more consistent, more reliable results, we're still not pleased with where we are. We think there's more work to be done, and we're going to continue that work because what we'd like to do is continue to take costs out of the system move ourselves down the cost curve. Some of that comes from the removal of cost that you can avoid because some of that comes through tweaking the volumes. And I'd like to just specifically recognize the Trio team for the work that they're doing at our East mine, have been dramatic improvements there over the last year. And I think they'll continue to outperform going into next year. We've still got some work to do on the potash side. We had the AMAX disappointment and then the weather at the end of the year that kind of threw a little bit of a ranch into early part of next year, but we'd like to get that back on track and kind of get back over that magic 300,000 ton mark and even a little higher. So while we're pleased with what has been done, there still is more work to do to achieve that resilient, predictable, as you just said, structural reliability. So that continues to be job one. And once we feel reasonably satisfied that we've accomplished that, then we can start to think about where we go from here. So bottom line is pleased with progress to date, but we still have more work to do and look forward to reporting out on those results in the coming quarters.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst

And in terms of the capital allocation stuff, I mean, is it waiting to see it? Or is it kind of a linear thing where, I guess, or is it -- at what point you kind of feel like it's in the works sort of, I guess, is where I'm trying to go, is it just obviously sitting with a pretty big percentage of your market cap in cash. So the commentary on waiting for capital returns, just sort of how does that go together?

Kevin Crutchfield

Analyst

Yes, the nature of this business and a lot of businesses, you can make a capital investment and see the result in a week. Here, it can take a year or 2 before that stuff starts to play out, just given the long-dated nature of largely the evaporation seasons and our -- the impact that weather can have on us. But I would say that a lot of that's in flight. We still have more work to do, specifically around Carlsbad and Wendover and frankly, Moab as well, making sure that those assets are performing at what we believe to be sort of their entitled level of performance. So we've sort of done a couple of years of catch-up capital. I think next year will be another one of those years. And you'll start to see the benefits of those manifest themselves late next year and moving into 2027, I think.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Crutchfield for any closing remarks.

Kevin Crutchfield

Analyst

Again, I'd like to take just another moment to thank our team for their hard work and dedication this year and posting solid results year-to-date and look forward to continuing to work with them in the coming quarters. And thank you all for attending today's call, and we look forward to keeping you posted in the coming quarters. Everybody, have a good day. Thank you. .

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.