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Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 14, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Ashley and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the second quarter 2008 quarterly results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Ms. Kimrey, you may begin your conference.

Karla Kimrey

Management

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2008 earnings conference call. I’d like to start by introducing today’s participants from the company. First, Bob Jornayvaz, the Chairman, CEO and co-founding stockholder of Intrepid. Next, Pat Avery, President and Chief Operating Officer; and David Honeyfield, Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Also joining is R.L. Moore, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Sales. I would also like to remind everyone that statements made in this call that express beliefs, expectations or intentions as well as those that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Securities Laws. A number of assumptions which we believe are reasonable were made in connection with the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. For material information with respect to the risks, uncertainties and factors which could cause our actual results to differ from our forward-looking statements, we direct you to our news release issued yesterday and the risk factors described in our filings with the SEC. All forward-looking information and statements are qualified in their entirety by such factors. The news release from last night which is posted on our Web site includes a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures to the most direct comparable GAAP measures. All reference to tons are short tons. I now turn the call over to Bob Jornayvaz.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Thank you, Karla, and thanks to those who are taking time this morning to learn more about Intrepid and our second quarter results. In the second quarter, Intrepid’s employees executed well at every level, enabling us to meet our production, expansion, cost and corporate objectives and allowing us to capitalize on a robust potash fundamentals. We are pleased with the results and look forward to sharing the highlights. As for our second quarter financial results, pro forma income was $32.4 million, which compares favorably to last year’s second quarter pro forma income of $4 million, and 68% greater than our first quarter 2008 pro forma income. Our second quarter 2008 EBITDA was $55 million which compares favorably to the $8 million in the same quarter last year. As for sales and pricing, our results were driven by the sale of 213,000 tons of potash and 47,000 tons of langbeinite at an average FOB price or net sales price of $425 per short ton of potash and $188 per short ton of langbeinite. As a point of reference, our second quarter 2008 net sales price for potash is $130 per ton higher than our first quarter 2008 net sales price and $243 per ton higher than our second quarter 2007 net sales price. Our income growth demonstrates the leverage we have to potash prices. Speaking of price changes, we raised our potash pricing for red granular FOB Carlsbad $200 per ton effective August 1, and we expect that increase to result in further income growth in the third and fourth quarters this year. Our posted price for red granular FOB Carlsbad has increased progressively through 2008 from $317 per ton at the end of 2007 to the current posted price of $782 per ton. Our posted langbeinite price has also increased…

Pat Avery

Management

Thank you, Bob. We enjoyed another productive quarter of operations and were able to increase our margins by focusing on operating efficiencies. In the second quarter of 2008, we produced 210,000 tons of potash, which includes [ph] our second quarter production in 2007. On a year-to-date basis, we have produced 8,000 more tons of potash and 28,000 tons more of langbeinite than last year. Our langbeinite production was 58,000 tons in the second quarter of 2008. It was 41% higher than our second quarter of 2007. Higher langbeinite ore grade rates were a key factor in the increase in langbeinite production. As a reminder, our East Mine is a mixed ore body of both potash and langbeinite ore. The production outlook for the remainder of the year remained within our prior guidance range of 870,000 to 890,000 tons of potash and 210,000 to 230,000 tons of langbeinite. As Bob has mentioned, as a result of our upgrade of the hoisting capacity at our West Mine, we expect to improve hoisting rates and de-bottlenecking as we work towards completing our underground and surface storage projects targeted for the beginning of 2009. At our East Mine, we anticipate higher potash production for the remainder of the year as a result of our new underground drilling capability and improved mine planning technology. Our maintenance turnarounds for the Carlsbad mine will be performed in the third and fourth quarters this year, which will have an impact of limiting production for about a two-week period. A short maintenance turnaround was completed at Wendover in the second quarter and Moab used the summer evaporation season to perform their turnaround work. We anticipate the plant startup for Moab will begin next week and we will begin harvesting potash at that time. As noted in our first quarter…

R.L. Moore

Management

Thank you, Pat. During the second quarter, we raised our posted potash prices three times in response to strong demand throughout the markets we serve. As a benchmark, we ended the first quarter with red granular potash posted at $417 per ton. This price increased to $582 per ton during the quarter and was raised to $782 per ton effective August 1. We should also note that lately we’ve been able to implement our price increases approximately one month ahead of our competitors. Historically, there has been approximately a three-month lag between a posted price increase and the realization of that price and we will continue to work towards shortening this lag time. We ended the second quarter with pricing for approximately 70% of our second quarter tons already settled. At the start of the third quarter, this number is approximately 60% of the available tons to be sold during the quarter. We have effectively increased our spot market exposure in part by moving most of our industrial customers from quarterly to monthly pricing. We believe this will benefit our stockholders in this price environment. Langbeinite pricing has also continued to increase and is currently about 45% of the price of potash on a realized basis, which is approximately 120% of the price of potash on a potassium nutrient basis. This price indicates that the additional secondary magnesium and sulfur nutrients and the langbeinite are valued by growers. We’re seeing a steady increase in the demand for this product. Potash demand continues to outpace production which has caused us to keep our products under allocation programs to our customers. Industrial demand remained steady as oil and gas rig count in the United States continues to climb. Year-to-date, our sales have been a mix of 63% agricultural, 29% industrial, and 8% animal feed. We utilize our network of sales professionals and industry contacts to monitor the overall market and specifically the financial health of the farm industry. I will now hand the call off to Dave Honeyfield, our Chief Financial Officer, for the financial update.

David Honeyfield

Management

Thanks R.L. First, to comment on our second quarter financial statement presentation, as a result of the consummation of our IPO, we’re required to report the results of operations for the period from April 1, 2008 through April 24, 2008 separately from the remainder of the quarter. I’m sure that most of you have seen this presentation in other transactions where our predecessor company was involved. In our situation, Intrepid Potash Inc is the successor to Intrepid Mining LLC. In the press release, we’ve presented the pro forma comparative results for each of the quarters in 2007 and the two quarters of 2008 to aid in your analysis of the company. The pro forma results were presented in a comparative basis including the adjustments necessary for the stock compensation expenses associated with the IPO, the reflection of repaying our bank borrowings following the offering, the pro forma impact of income taxes, and a calculation of earnings per share. Bob reported our pro forma income numbers already, but it is also important to inform you of our expected cash tax rate. Our cash tax rate in the second quarter was 17.5% primarily due to the benefit of a step up of reporting the inventory for tax purposes in connection with the IPO. We expect that the cash tax rate of 21% to 23% should resume in the third quarter. We’re reiterating our annual guidance for production, cost of goods sold per ton and capital investment, and we simply want to point out that our guidance for production volumes which can vary somewhat from actual sales for any changes in inventory volumes. As a reminder of the production guidance Pat stated earlier, our cash production cost of goods sold per ton is expected to be in the range of $140 to $150 per ton for potash and $75 to $85 per ton for langbeinite. Our balance sheet is very strong. As of the end of July, we had over $100 million in the bank and we have $125 million available under our line of credit. As we've said before, our capital projects will be the first call on our capital as we can generate strong returns investing in the expansion of our existing facilities and bringing back idle potash capacity. Much of our capital investment will be heavily loaded towards the last three to four months of the year, and when we commence the HB construction, that also will begin to utilize some of our accumulated cash. We'd now like to open the line for any questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Burns with Merrill Lynch. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: Hi. Good morning.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Hey Steve. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: The North Mine, is that a mixed ore body as well since it’s adjacent to the East Mine?

Pat Avery

Management

No. That trend is – North Mine is essentially a (inaudible) of potash ore body. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: Okay. Regarding the langbeinite business, how would you assess your project at improving the recovery of langbeinite? Where is that project at right now?

Pat Avery

Management

Steve, we’ve been conducting extensive testing this summer and will continue in the fall trying a number of basic float technologies. We have really seen some advancement in the last few years in efficient flotation. We've been testing those. We think we have the design we like. We believe we'll finish final design this fall and winter, get the engineering done, and be active in construction by late winter and spring of next year. Again, as we said, hopefully bring it on late 2009 or early 2010. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: And will that increase your recovery of potash as well as langbeinite?

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

No, it will not. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: So it's just langbeinite?

Pat Avery

Management

It is. It's just on the langbeinite circuit. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: Okay. And Bob, can you talk a little bit about the demand outlook for langbeinite? How would you assess the health of the income level for those specialty crops that you sell into for langbeinite? We follow the major row crops closely, but you're selling into a somewhat different market there.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Well, Steve, I’m going to answer the first part then I am going to let R.L. talk about the domestic market. We're seeing an excellent international market for our langbeinite products. In fact, we have no inventory. We are selling it as quickly as we can and the opportunities to expand internationally are going faster than we can ramp up the production. The sales that we've had into China, into West Africa, South America, and the Caribbean Rim countries have exceeded our expectations. So we are trying to ramp our production up as quickly as we can to meet the excellent demand that we're seeing internationally. With that, I'll let R.L. address a little bit in the domestic demand increases that we're seeing as well.

R.L. Moore

Management

What seeing here in the domestic market is just that the steady growth that we planned – I have dealt with this product for a number of years and you always think that you're probably peaking and there's not a whole lot more room for growth, but Florida continues to be an extremely good market for us with the crops down there that require a low-chloride or a chloride-sensitive application of fertilizer. Up and down the East Coast, where they're growing fruits, specialty crops, even tobacco up in the Carolinas, there is huge demand for the product there. We're seeing the use of this product as a replacement for potash in some areas where the price of potash has got to the level to where they may not put in a pasture land but they will come out there with the langbeinite product and use that for pasture fertilization. Right now the langbeinite is allocated just like our potash is and the demand far exceeds what we can produce at this point in time.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

That covers for you, Steve? Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch:

R.L. Moore

Management

We’re exporting standard and granular into the offshore markets. At times, we'd have to combine a vessel of standard and granular to get the standard business. We do see more standard going to the offshore market, particularly China, that's a standard market for us. The relation in pricing to the export to granular, I can say that we’re getting as much for our standard product going into the export market as we do the product going into our domestic market here in North America. Steve Burns – Merrill Lynch: Okay. Thank you.

Karla Kimrey

Management

Thank you, Steve. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line Elday Madriguez [ph] with Goldman Sachs.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Hello?

Operator

Operator

Your line is open, sir. If your line is on mute, please unmute your line at this time.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Karla Kimrey

Management

Okay. Let’s go to the next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line Xavier Honablue [ph] with Meyers Associates. Xavier Honablue – Meyers Associates: Hi. Good morning. Could you tell a little – could explain a little bit about the difference between the nitrogen fertilizers and your product and how competition and sales outlooks will affect the future growth of the company?

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Well, first, we’re a potash-only producer, so we don’t produce any nitrogen. 75% of the fixed cost of nitrogen is natural gas. I really can’t speak to where the nitrogen market is going simply because we don’t produce it. We don’t market that product. As the price of natural gas does go down, we’ve made the assumption that the price of nitrogen products might go down as well, putting more dollars in a farmer's pocket to pay for potash. Pat, is there anything you would like to add about nitrogen?

Pat Avery

Management

No. I think that's a fair assessment. I mean, that is certainly not our expertise, but we always believe in the strength of balanced fertilization. Let me just say that we’re very concerned and always believed that our grower and our customer makes money and makes a good return. Again, I would just say that we do think they’ll use solid amounts of NPNK because fertilizer is the best returner for yield to a grower. Xavier Honablue – Meyers Associates: Thank you.

Karla Kimrey

Management

Thank you very much. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Majid Khan with Cobalt Capital. Majid Khan – Cobalt Capital: Can you guys talk a little bit about cost inflation ex D&A and freight costs that you’ve seen in the quarter?

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

I’ll let Pat Avery talk about some of the cost inflation that we’re seeing in terms of steel products, labor, et cetera. A lot of the inflation that we've experienced is what you would expect is it relates to diesel costs, energy costs, which fortunately is we are able to increase our potash pricing that we’ve far exceeded any inflation that we’ve seen. We are trying to build up our staff and build a well-trained bench. And I’ll let Pat Avery talk a little bit about some of the investments that he’s making in not only our management teams, but in the employees which does cause cost inflation.

Pat Avery

Management

Well, Bob is absolutely right. And let me just we’re keenly aware of rising costs and watch them closely and I think that was reflected on our only modest increase in cost of goods sold for the quarter. We all track various indices. We use a number of published industries and we do track our basket of goods at all our facilities, and that would include steel, concrete, diesel, labor is a great example, and a lot of times finished products like pumps, crushers, conveyors, things like that and you're certainly on track. We’ve seen increases over the last year or two of 10% and 20% in some of those products. The key of course is always working closely with your suppliers and buying early in some places, make sure your orders are locked up. As we’ve also alluded, since we have a pretty steady steam of projects, we’re able to work with a number of engineering firms and construction firms and suppliers to stay in the pipeline, so to speak, get pretty effective pricing. The last one I will touch on, as Bob alluded to, is labor. We’re in a unique time that we don’t feel we're capital constrained. Our only constrain sometimes is resources. We’re actively, like everyone else, competing for engineers, IT people, technicians, draft persons, welders, electricians, and it’s a very competitive market. I think we’re using some very innovative recruiting techniques, recruiting in various places around the country and in the world some cases, innovating ways of housing them or bringing them to our facilities. But human resources are pretty competitive right now. We pay market but we also use innovative approaches to get them. We are always looking ahead at prices as we see our HB facility coming on next year. We're actually already getting bids on extensive items and lining up long lead items, for instance like for HB and North Mine. Majid Khan – Cobalt Capital: Okay.

Karla Kimrey

Management

We want to thank you for your time today. At this point, I’d like to turn it over to Bob again.

Bob Jornayvaz

Management

Finally, I’d just like to say that this is a very exciting time for potash producers with record demand for our product. We have well defined plans in place to improve and expand our facilities that will allow us to capitalize on the market conditions and are actively working to reopen the HB Mine as a solution mine. We also note again, we're expediting our efforts to re-open the North Mine and expect continue to be able to report on this project in the future. We believe that if we execute on our strategic growth plans in a thoughtful and rational manner, we will achieve the best long term results for our stockholders. We are focused on these efforts and thank you very much for your interest in our company. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.