Steve Humphreys
Analyst · the SEC, including the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K. Identiv assumes no obligations to update these forward-looking statements, which speak as of today. I will now turn the call over to CEO, Steve Humphreys, for his comments. Sir, please proceed
Thanks, Sandra. As I said earlier, our RFID growth is predictable for two reasons. It's heavily backlog driven. And it's driven by major companies who have incorporated RFID devices into their products. Planning for global products is a yearlong process. So even now we're getting visibility into plans throughout 2021. First backlog, going into the fourth quarter, our total backlog stood at $10.5 million, up 68% from last year and our RFID backlog for shipment in the fourth quarter is up 125% over last year. We've now gotten in orders for about 95% of our expected shipments for the quarter in RFID. And that means, most additional orders either contribute to upside within the quarter, or drive more backlog for 2021. This is a key driver of our growth for 2021 and we expect the RFID portion of our business to grow well over 50% in the first half of 2021 versus the first half of 2020, with a full year growth in the mid 20% range for 2021. And the core driver of our RFID business is the mass market adoption of RFID integrated products. Our customers are leaders in their own industries, incorporating RFID devices into their products, each with volumes of tens or hundreds of millions of units. So this is a huge market that's just beginning to grow. In the third quarter, two strong use cases were launched in the market, one by CVS and the other, of course by Apple. Now we don't generally disclose customers. So these are just industry examples, to be clear. But both are great examples of the RFID market accelerating. They're both basic uses that establish platforms, to then drive multiple products from already big first launches. So the first, some of you saw in the demo session we had a couple of weeks back, CVS’ Spoken Rx for visually impaired people. You tap your phone to the RFID tag on the prescription bottle, and it reads up medication with dosage and all the other information, for people who can't read the label. Now about 13% of prescriptions go to people with some visual impairment. And there are about 4.5 billion prescriptions annually. So in the U.S. alone, that's over 1.5 billion RFID tags every year, just for the visually impaired sector. Now that's the current use case and the first use case, so now extrapolate. With the platform deployed, every CVS Pharmacy now is set up to program and put RFID tags on every prescription. And that's really where they should be on everyone. So when you have your prescription bottle, you tap each time you take it, you'll know if you've taken it morning or evening or whatever the prescription regimen is, it'll auto refill as you get low. There's all kinds of capabilities you can do there. You could even opt in and your doctor could get information about how consistently you're taking your meds. Because anyone who studies this area knows that the biggest issue with the prescription pharmaceuticals is people complying with taking their meds. So there's a number of things that companies like CVS are thinking about, now that they've made that additional investment, they can really expand into other categories. So ultimately, we think the opportunity is for all 4.5 billion of the prescriptions in the U.S. annually. Now, the US is about a quarter of the world prescription. So, again, you can see, for the visually impaired application as a couple of billion units worldwide, and nearly 20 billion units for all prescriptions worldwide. Now, of course, it's going to take time, but you can see the value of potential. And again, the investments really now done and, of course, the reader and the app technology is already in everybody's pockets in their phones. Now related to the mobile space in the phones, the biggest event, of course, was Apple's launch of full NFC support in iOS 14 and the iPhone 12 and especially, the new ecosystem of products around MagSafe. So Apple's made it very easy and secure to connect peripherals to the iPhone. And then through NFC, they connect them into core iPhone features. So just as a couple of examples, the first Apple branded cases, for example, if you buy an orange case, you pop it on your phone, the screen turns orange, it goes through an animation, you know you've connected it and you though it's an apple verify phone, it seems pretty trivial. But what its showing is, the peripherals are actually communicating securely with the phone, launching processes in the phone, and all secured and controlled by Apple through a secure NFC way. Now, this enables a whole world of new peripherals to connect to the phone and seamlessly but securely launch apps and experiences. So this is really the vision for this type of connected device that Apple's deploying. And with over 200 million iPhones shipped a year, connecting multiple MagSafe enabled devices each. Again, you can see the market in 2 billion units plus range annually. Now, additionally, of course, we're apple and CVS go, Samsung, Walgreens, Amazon pharmacy, and others have to match. So, you can see the scale of the markets we're going after, and the volumes that already are happening. So, RFID is gaining traction right now. We've been the trusted co-developer and supplier for some of the most advanced applications and the most demanding companies. This is where the growth is, and it's where our competitive advantage is strongest. So, how are we going to keep our advantage? We're expanding our technical capabilities. And for 2021, we're launching services to help companies put RFID into their products that were unique in our ability to go from concept to optimize design to early production, scaling, production, and then to immediately start back into the next generation of devices. And this is exactly the cycle that customers need. We're also innovating with new products, answering needs we know from our own customers. An example is a new product we've launched, but we think is the industry's lowest carbon footprint, RFID tag, our eco tag. Instead of being an etched antenna on a plastic substrate, we've developed a unique laser cutting process and is on recyclable paper substrate, we even use recycled aluminum for the antenna. So, there's no etching chemicals, no lost metal, no plastic layers, no chemical runoff. So, why do we do all this? Well, the biggest users of high end RFID are consumer-facing companies and sustainability matters to them. Companies like Amazon and Apple have a public commitment to being carbon neutral and RFID tags are consumer visible devices. So, our eco tag shows their eco commitment, and eliminates what otherwise would be a negative on their carbon footprint. Our customers told us this is what they want. It's very tricky technology, but we developed it. And fundamentally, this is exactly why we're going to keep our lead in the fast growing RFID market. So, that's RFID. Now let's look at premises, which has some similarly exciting opportunities. And remember, the core technology in our RFID tag is shared with our access cards, dual readers, identity readers, and other parts of our physical and data security solutions. So, one growth driver really supports the other. So, with the premises industry overall, growing about 6%, we grew 26% sequentially and we're expecting premises to grow about 25% year-over-year this quarter. For 2021, we expect growth in the mid-teens more than double the industry rates. Now, the fundamental drivers are recurring revenue growth to shift to IT-driven buyers and federal grant. So, why would we be growing faster than the market with these dynamics? Just like an RFID, we're both the trusted provider and we've got some of the most advanced technology and broadest product range. As customers move to software-defined platforms, they need to migrate their entire platform, across readers, credentials, controllers, access video, and audio. And it's all got to be integrated with their active directory or other sensitive data repositories. Now, we're the only company that delivers all of this and we think total solutions and IP centric recurring revenue platforms will be the fastest growth sector and physical security and strategic position of provide access video and audio management is the key for anyone trying to win. A great example of this is our Freedom Cloud platform that we just launched this week. It's the lightest weight implementation in the industry, totally web and mobile-based and especially on the hardware side, our Freedom Bridges are extremely compact and cost effective IoT devices. A bridge that can control two doors is the size of a pack of playing cards. And this is what customers are looking for, hardly noticeable, really intuitive to deploy and manage, and a platform that the IT department is totally comfortable owning and managing. The software is browser based, and the hardware is managed just like a network switch. So we've described the growth in each segment. So to put it together, in the fourth quarter, we're expecting overall revenues to grow in the 25% to 30% year-over-year range. So looking at the business drivers for next year, we have RFID use cases that each can be hundreds of millions of units over time, and give us clear line of sight into 2021. The strong federal government demand for our physical security, identity readers and mobility apps and our complete range of recurring revenue products is now in place. Now with all these growth drivers, we could see faster growth in any given quarter, so to keep our predictability; we’ve given a strong base growth outlook. And we'll update as we get further into the markets take off. So 2020 has been a challenging year, but we're in markets that are taking off. And we've been able to strengthen our leadership even as they're accelerating. The result is we're looking forward to a strong finish to the year and an exciting 2021. So with that, let me open the discussion to questions. Operator?