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Inseego Corp. (INSG)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 20, 2026

$14.92

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Inseego Corp.'s Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. Please note that today's event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] On the call today are Juho Sarvikas, Chief Executive Officer; and Steven Gatoff, Chief Financial Officer. During this call, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings release, which is available on the Investors section of the company's website. An audio replay of this call will also be archived there. Please also be advised that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on the company's current expectations and beliefs. For a discussion on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations, please refer to the risk factors described in the company's Form 10-K, 10-Q and other SEC filings, which are available on the company's website. Please also refer to the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements section contained in today's press release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Juho Sarvikas, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Q4 2025 was another strong quarter for Inseego. We generated revenue of $48.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $6 million, both above our guidance and marking our third consecutive quarter of sequential growth in each metric. These results capped a year of steady, disciplined execution. We exited 2025 with a meaningfully higher quality and more diversified revenue base driven by broader product breadth and increased customer diversity. Shortly after year-end, we further strengthened our operating momentum by improving our capital structure by retiring all preferred stock. We accomplished this at a meaningful discount, enhancing the company's long-term flexibility and are pleased to welcome Mubadala Capital as a significant common stockholder. Steven will walk through the financials and outlook in more detail later in the call. I'd like to step back and discuss how our performance in 2025 and our trajectory going into 2026 demonstrates that the strategy I outlined when I stepped into the CEO role a year ago is working. To frame that discussion, let me briefly revisit our strategy. We are building an enterprise wireless broadband platform that combines cellular-first connectivity with intelligence, manageability and scalability at the wireless edge. That strategy has remained consistent throughout 2025 and is grounded on 5 clear strategic priorities. First, scaling carrier revenue to a broader enterprise-focused Fixed Wireless Access and mobile portfolio. Second, accelerating Inseego's evolution into a solutions company by creating a platform that includes industry-leading wireless hardware, network and device management and subscriber life cycle management. Third, expanding and diversifying our routes to market and customer base. Fourth, maintaining financial discipline and strengthening our capital structure. And fifth, building a world-class management team and Board of Directors to drive long-term growth and scale. Our fourth quarter results and 2025…

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Thank you, Juho. Hi, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to cover 3 topics today. First, I'll take you through some details on the Q4 and full year 2025 financial results. Second, I'll provide an update on a material improvement in our capital structure that is adding to stockholder value. And third, I'll share some color on the financial profile of the business and provide guidance for Q1 and look at the full year 2026. As we always do, we'll wrap up the call by opening up to your questions. In 2025, we delivered 3 consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth, culminating in a strong Q4 that exceeded guidance and paired with strong gross margins and disciplined spending resulted in solid profitability in the form of adjusted EBITDA that was the second highest on an apples-to-apples basis in more than a decade. On the top line, total revenue for Q4 was $48.4 million, driven by higher mobile volumes, increased channel activity, continued strength in FWA and a consistent contribution from our Inseego Connect and Inseego Subscribe SaaS offerings. As expected, mobile revenue was strong in Q4 2025 and was driven by a more broad carrier adoption and ordering cadence. While FWA revenue declined sequentially from the record Q3 2025, which benefited from new product rollouts at a carrier customer that we discussed last call, FWA revenue in Q4 was up 50% year-over-year and was driven by the diversification of our carrier customer base and solid channel activity. Software services revenue was $12 million in Q4, consistent and again providing a stable high-margin contribution to results. For the full year 2025, total revenue was $166.2 million, reflecting sequential quarterly momentum throughout the year. Moving through the P&L. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q4 2025 was 43%, up 75 basis points…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question will come from Scott Searle with ROTH Capital.

Scott Searle

Analyst

Nice job on the fourth quarter and really nice to see the diversified customer base and product portfolio building over the course of '26. Maybe just to start, Steven, I wanted to dive in quickly on the memory front. I know you had some comments in terms of your opening monologue, but it sounds like you guys are managing that pretty well. I'm wondering if you could detail that a little bit more in the first half of this year. It sounds like it's going to be a shared burden with your MNO customers going forward. And then as it relates to the 2026 guidance, certainly implies things ramping up over the course of the year, as you articulated, it averages out to like $50 million a quarter. So that's a pretty big step up. I'm wondering, given the expected time lines and product introductions, what the comfort level and visibility that you have to that? And a lot of moving parts from an OpEx standpoint and gross margin standpoint, Steven, I'm wondering if you could give us a little bit of guidance about how we should be thinking about adjusted gross margins -- excuse me, adjusted EBITDA margins in the second half of the year.

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Yes, sure. In a sense -- I will tag team. Juho and I on a good chunk because certainly on the memory part that Juho was talking about. And the short answer on the first part, Scott, is that on memory, we're pretty well locked in for Q1 certainly and really most of the first half of the year, and we'll get to that if you want to...

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Maybe the big thing, Scott, on the memory -- and thanks for the great question really is that we have so much new exciting products and customers ramping in first half. And I wanted to make sure that we have sufficient buffer to also capture upside, channel fill, all of that good stuff. So from a memory standpoint of view, as we were doing that, we realized somewhere around 6 months ago that the memory market is going to get tight. So we took the appropriate actions. So I feel good about the first half inventory situation as well as the pricing environment.

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Awesome. And then good question, Scott, quite a few of them on the dynamic guidance. But the crux of what you're saying in our view is that, yes, things ramp quite quickly so that the Q2 -- we gave guidance, obviously, for the year, but the math, if you just sit there pretty back of the envelope, you would see that Q2 ramps to the high 4s, and then you would expect Q3 and 4 to have a 5 handle on it. Like yes, like that's how -- that's the math that gets you to $190 million. And so we get that. And so you -- in our view, you're thinking about it, right? And a similar dynamic, which is consistent with what we've talked about probably for the last 1.5 quarters which is EBITDA is the lightest in Q1 and then starts to grow and scale as we go into Q2 and then certainly in Q3 and Q4, where we said the average for the year doesn't really exist in nature, right? The first half of the year is at a lower rate and then the second half of the year is at a much higher rate, and we're exiting the year at a nice dollar amount of EBITDA and margin percentage. Let me pause there. Does that hit up what you were asking about?

Scott Searle

Analyst

That's perfect. And if I could just quickly tack on. Juho, there's been a lot of dynamic changes within the industry, I think, from a competitive standpoint. I'm wondering if you could give us some thoughts in terms of how you see your share shifting over the course of 2026. A lot of moving currents, I think, competitively in the mobile hotspot market. But then also, if you can provide a little bit of color in terms of some of the new product portfolio. Is that mostly going to be MiFi? Are there some other products that we should be expecting to see in new categories potentially taking us in international markets in the second half of the year?

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Scott, excellent questions. So I'll start with the mobile part. What I'm super excited is that we'll have now all 3 large carriers launching our new mobile generation. And like we discussed in the prepared remarks, we were hoping to see that earlier in Q1, but it will now take place towards the latter part of Q1. But the thing with mobile is that it's a predictable run rate business. Think of it like a light switch. Once you launch the product, you get the share in the category. All 3 of them are also positioned in a higher volume segment than where you've seen us historically. So I feel really good about the MiFi volume. And I think I've been fairly open about it. Look, I think in mobile or in hotspot, our job really is to go and consolidate the market. And these 3 across all 3 is a huge, huge milestone. I also see opportunity towards the latter part of the year or going forward in expanding a hotspot. There's also a value segment. And I also believe there's a great opportunity in the premium segment. So mobile, we innovate the category. We're huge fans of, and we look forward to continuing investing and growing, growing in that. I believe your second question was then on the portfolio. So I already described the mobile part of the story. Like you know, in FWA, today, we have, if you think good, better, best. We have the better with the FX4100 that we launched about 9, 10 months ago. We recently introduced FX4200, which is the best. And now what we're going to roll out during the first half is an entry-level, yet enterprise grade, same manageability, everything you know us for, but a lower tier router. So we'll complete this good, better, best for SMB, enterprise, call it, carpeted environments. And then, of course, there's a lot of other attractive verticals. So that would be my summary on the immediate portfolio expansion.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Tyler Burmeister with Lake Street.

Tyler Burmeister

Analyst

So as we think about the 2026 guide across your mobile and your FWA businesses, the FWA side of the business continues to gain momentum and you kind of highlighted the mobile side of the business as being stable. Just wondering with the new customer ramping this year and mobile coming off a softer '25 and different dynamics, should we still expect the Fixed Wireless Access side to be a relatively larger contribution to growth this year?

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Awesome. Thanks, Tyler. We'll tag team as usual. So we expect mobile and FWA both to grow on a revenue basis in 2026 for albeit different reasons, right? Fixed pie, if you will, on mobile, growing pie on FWA. So you all share all the thoughts on that. And on both the revenue and customer base. So short -- just to make sure you said flat, but it's a growth driver, both of them.

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Yes. The one thing I would add here or highlight is that, like I mentioned when I was answering Scott's earlier question, there's plenty of room to grow in mobile, and we're going to go as fast as we can, and that pony will do extremely well. At the same time, FWA on the back of the portfolio expansion, the customer expansion is going to be also a great story in 2026. So if you look at 2026, we'll see which one of these 2 categories ends up running faster. But if you take the long-term view, the FWA TAM for mobile. Also, now with these product introductions, our share in mobile will significantly grow. So if you take a longer-term view, it will be in -- the mix will be in favor of FWA.

Tyler Burmeister

Analyst

That's great. And then we talked maybe a little bit less about the MSO and the distribution channel opportunities on this call. So I was just wondering, as we look out this year, could we possibly hear some announcements or start seeing maybe some more meaningful contributions from those customer groups this year? Is that maybe a little bit further out opportunity for you guys?

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Thanks, Tyler. I think that's a fantastic question. So -- and I'm sure you're asking because I've been mentioning in my remarks, and I have been talking about it a little bit already. Look, to me, the MSOs, whether it's cable or fiber, many of these guys actually have cellular assets as well, right? They're kind of like a carrier. So like I would even put them in the same bucket as the large -- 3 large carriers, and there's brilliant FWA use cases with the MSOs, starting with failover, day 1, all of that. And we've done massive investment in both products where the FX4200 is actually the ideal, I'll call it, router platform for that use case, but also in our cloud with deep understanding of those use cases. So MSO is definitely something where I expect that we'll have great discussions as the year progresses. The VAR and the managed service provider, let's call this the channel, this is a different type of an animal. Now you have a fairly fragmented set of partners. By the way, I did mention or I should mention that the 3 large value-added resellers, CDW, Insight, and I can't believe I'm flagging on a third one now, are all going to launch -- we've already introduced programs. They're all stocking the FX4200 as of late last year. That is going to be a steady ramp. It's a little bit like the FWA. So these large guys, whether they are the carriers or the MSOs, they will drive big immediate volume uplift. The VARs and the MSPs in the long term become significant growth driver for us, but will be a slower burn. The third large value reason, of course, is SHI. Did I answer your question?

Tyler Burmeister

Analyst

Yes. That's great.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

Christian Schwab

Analyst

Good quarter, and congrats on all the deals. As we look at the software business, you have one customer who's a material percentage of that software and services revenue. Is there an opportunity with the other 2 customers to deploy a similar program as your historical leading customer?

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Christian, thanks for joining us. Actually, I'll answer both aspects of the software business. Let me start with the Inseego Connect, which is our device management platform, orchestration platform. One of the really important things that we've implemented now, especially with the FX4200, but much broader is that since we've made that investment over 2025, in creating a world-class device management platform with great differentiation capability. Our go-to-market motion has really changed on the routers. It really is a solution first sale attach rate, but also the value capture is growing. The installed base, of course, takes time to grow. But again, here, if you take a multiyear view, Inseego Connect is a really important part of our story. It also provides other service opportunities for us where we can expand, as you might imagine. If you look at the subscriber life cycle management platform, yes, for sure. We've done significant investment here as well, and we're looking at from a business development standpoint of view, expansion opportunities. It really does have a unique feature set, especially if you go into the Fed and government space where you have a lot of compliance, a lot of complexity in terms of how you manage those customers, and there are significant benefits for carriers, broadly speaking, to leverage that platform.

Christian Schwab

Analyst

Great. I guess my second question, with the broadening base out of all 3 carriers, there seems to be a greater industry focus on enterprise class Fixed Wireless Access versus just residential. From a bigger picture standpoint, do you believe any of this has to do with Industry 4.0 initiatives or greater acceleration finally of private 5G networks by the carriers and their thoughts?

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

So there was an immediate gold rush in FWA when 5G merged to consumer. The problem with consumer is the ARPU and the consumption profile. Very, very data demanding, massive consumption profile and you're competing against cable and other value props for the consumer. Enterprise, on the other hand, has a very rich ARPU profile. And if you think about it, the usage profile is completely the opposite of the consumer because you'll be working through the day, you maybe should not be streaming Netflix at the office. So just like from the basic dynamic standpoint of view, very favorable from a carrier P&L standpoint of view. There has been a significant constraint on the industry, and it really has been spectrum. So C-band when the auction happened, launched a massive wave of FWA expansion. There was a recent acquisition that one of the carriers made that you're very much familiar with. And all of a sudden, FWA and especially the business or enterprise segment became top of mind because now you have the capacity to go there, and it has the highest ARPU. So one of the really foundational things that we believe in is that cellular will take over the world in 2 ways. One, 5G performance is now broadband like as opposed to 4G. 6G is yet again another 10x faster. So you could make the case where now cellular should become the primary and there shouldn't be a discussion around it. It will also release massive amounts of spectrum, massive amounts of capacity when you can utilize higher on auction spectrum assets that are still out there yet to be deployed. And then look from an enterprise end customer standpoint of view, super easy to deploy, single management interface. You don't need to worry which of your location to get fiber or cable or how do you patch all of that together. So I think there's a lot of benefits that will continue to accelerate enterprise FWA. And that was one of the data points I was sharing is this 30 -- high 30s CAGR on service provider revenue increase in the enterprise FWA.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Lance Vitanza with TD Cowen.

Lance Vitanza

Analyst

I've got a couple, if I could. The first is it's good to have Verizon back in the fold. That said, I do wonder what this means, if anything, for the variability of results going forward. I'm just wondering beyond the initial rollout, just looking ahead here, do you expect this to -- I mean will your visibility be better or worse off for having Verizon back in the mix relative to working with AT&T and T-Mobile?

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

That's an FWA question. I'll take it, Lance. So the way to look at it is that I kind of go back to my previous answer, there's a strong economic incentive. All 3 players have made the statement that they're investing in FWA for enterprise, where we got with our existing large customer, it took a couple of product generations, and it took some time to develop the co-selling motion and to be able to drive that kind of volume uplift. So at this early stage, I can't really tell you like how fast each of these opportunities will grow. But I think we have very reasonable expectations, reasonable expectations that inform the guide for 2026 that Steven was sharing.

Lance Vitanza

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then -- so just to sort of go back to Scott's question about the full year EBITDA outlook. If I'm doing the math right, I think you put up about a 12.1% EBITDA margin for 2025. Should we be thinking about 2026 as kind of being in and around the same ZIP code? Or could there be upside or potential downside maybe for investment spend and so forth? How should we think about that relative to margin profile year-over-year on the EBITDA line?

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Good question. Similar outcome, Lance. And so far as the answer for the year doesn't really exist in nature because we would expect to exit 2026 at those levels you're saying, at the higher levels, kind of where we are now-ish. But the first part of the year is going to be a bit lower. So the average for the year is somewhere in between that's not really existing. So if it's -- you can see the math for Q1, right? So if the first half of the year is single digits and the second half of the year is getting into a decent double digit, you'll do the math on the average. But the short answer is the rates that we're at, we would expect to be seeing in the second half and exiting the year for sure.

Lance Vitanza

Analyst

Perfect. Understood. And maybe just one last one for me. And just sort of thinking a little bit longer term, is double-digit revenue growth sort of sustainable over the next few years, do we think? Or should we be sort of thinking I'm not expecting guidance here. I'm not expecting that '27 will necessarily look as robust as 2026. But will those years -- will we continue to see robust growth, do you imagine? Or does 2026 sort of bring us back to kind of more of a new plateau level would you expect?

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Of total revenue growth? You're saying, hey, can you grow total revenue at double digits in the next couple of years?

Lance Vitanza

Analyst

Yes.

Steven Gatoff

Analyst

Yes, we can. I think we said that at the end of last year as we're setting up for this year. And candidly, the growth profile for 2026 is a nice double digit with a pretty low week lane we might say internally, Q1. And so if we're pulling that off in a year where we're ramping a whole bunch of new products and transitioning, right, we're going from a company that was one product, one customer to many products, all 3 carriers, and we're doing that all this quarter. So like that's a big deal. And once that gets up and running, like that's a really nice model. And so a little probably long-winded, but the short answer is yes, we do believe that's a double-digit growth for the next several years.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

Juho Sarvikas

Analyst

Thank you for the great questions and for joining us today. Steven and I will be at the ROTH Conference next month, and we hope to see many of you there. I also wanted to thank our awesome employees for their hard work and dedication and our shareholders for your continued support and confidence in our vision. We are excited to have you with us on this journey. Thank you again for your time, and we look forward to catching up soon.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.