Jack C. Fortnum
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Ilene. Good morning, everyone. As we always do, let me start off with some financial highlights. The first thing you'll note -- you'll likely notice is the absence of any adjusted figures as there were none in the second quarter of 2014 and none in all of 2013. So it is a clean comparison. Sales fell $150 million, largely as a result of passing through lower-priced corn and the impact of numerous currency devaluations. Gross profit rose by $20 million, and that flowed down to operating income for an increase of $23 million. This reflects the good regional performance that Ilene just described. Earnings per share increased only 13%. I say only because we would normally expect a 16% operating income increase to drive even stronger growth at the EPS line. In this quarter, nonoperating items netted out to a slight negative as the benefit of a 22% tax rate in the second quarter of 2013 more than offset the accretion from last year's share repurchase. I'll lay this out more completely in just a few minutes. Shifting over to the sales bridge. You can see the significant impact of the lower pricing and currency headwinds. The primary currency working against us were the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, Canadian dollar and Thai baht. Volumes were up $63 million, again, reflecting the nice operational results. Looking at the sales variance by region, you'll see the primary source of currency headwinds was South America, while North America was the main driver of the lower price mix. Positively, we saw volumes increase in all 4 regions. Turning to operating income. You can see the strong positive variances for North America, Asia-Pacific and EMEA, offset slightly by the small decline in South America. Notably, you see a reduction in corporate cost reflecting our keen focus on managing costs in all parts of our business. On the earnings per share bridge, the operational impact was positive $0.20 per share, largely a result of better margin and volumes, slightly offset by foreign exchange headwinds. This was partially offset by a negative $0.05 per share from nonoperating items. I mentioned this a moment ago. You can see the EPS impact of the lower tax rate in the quarter ago -- in the year ago quarter. That resulted from the 2 to 3 tax items compared to a more normal rate this quarter. This was partially offset by last year's share repurchases. On the previous call, we said that we expected foreign exchange to be a headwind of $0.30 to $0.35 per share, and this remains unchanged. I'm going to move fairly quickly through the year-to-date figures. You see the sizable decline in sales driven by lower raw material prices. As you just saw, we are back on our growth trajectory in the second quarter. However, for the first half, gross and operating profit, as well as earnings per share, are down, entirely a result of the first quarter performance. The net sale bridge highlights the lower raw material prices, currency headwinds and the fact that volumes were up for the first half. In fact, on this slide, you can see the volumes were up in each region for the year-to-date. North America is up 0.3%, but rounds to flat on this slide. The operating income bridge reflects the very weak first quarter by North America, which was both timing and weather. We expect to recover the decline over the course of the year. It shows that the declines in South America, which are largely due to the difficult comparisons in Argentina. And we see ongoing strong results in Asia Pacific and EMEA, along with a favorable variance on corporate expenses. Earnings per share for the first 6 -- for the first half is down as the benefit of higher volumes was offset by lower margin and FX headwinds. On the nonoperational side, the 2 largest buckets, tax rate and share count, essentially offset each other, thus far, for the year. I expect that to change in the back half of the year as the tax rate comps are more typical, and we have more share buyback pulling through the income statement. That's a good transition to our 2014 earnings outlook. We're expecting earnings per share in the range of $5.40 to $5.70. This narrows both the top and bottom of the range by $0.05, and reflects a less robust outlook for Brazil and the benefit of the ASR. We're leaving a larger range than we'd like. We need to still reflect the uncertainty in Argentina, while allowing for the potential upside from higher volumes as input costs continue to fall. Asia-Pacific and EMEA continued to be in line with our favorable outlook for the year. Last quarter, we discussed the relative outlook for our quarters and told you that the second quarter would show substantial improvement over the first quarter, and it did. We also told you the third quarter would likely be the strongest for the year, and we still see things playing out that way. The fourth quarter should be solid. Turning to the regions. In North America, we expect sales to continue to decline significantly as we have passed along much lower corn prices to our customers. Volumes for the region should be down slightly as pressure in Mexico from the tax on sweetened beverage hurts volumes in the short term. This negative impact should be offset by volume increases in the U.S. and Canada as lower prices stimulate consumer demand. We still expect operating income to be flat or increased modestly in North America, driven by our ability to expand our dollar margins, as well as the mix benefits by selling more specialty product. We also continue to effectively leverage the free trade opportunities across all 3 NAFTA countries. South America sales are expected to increase as volumes grow in the region, particularly Brazil and Colombia. We now see operating income for the region as being down slightly as Brazil's economy has not shown the growth that we expected earlier in the year. For Argentina, our views haven't changed. As a reminder, we have factored in assumptions that the currency continues a fairly rapid devaluation. The low end of our assumption is predicated on very significant devaluation and a slow, roughly 6 months recovery. A better scenario would be a quick, complete devaluation soon and a more speedy recovery, perhaps 3 or 4 months instead. As we see the devaluation, we're looking for the scenario where farmers begin to release more corn into the market, bringing prices down and making corn-based sweeteners more competitive with sugar. We would also look for peso-denominated costs to come down, providing relief to the cost crunch. Ultimately, this is an unpredictable situation, and the political and economic risks remain. As we've said before, we believe we've captured significant further downside in our guidance. Asia-Pac -- Asia-Pacific should continue to deliver top and bottom line growth behind an attractive portfolio of specialty starches sold in a balanced mix of mature and emerging geographies. EMEA should also see top and bottom line improvement. In particular, the new specialty starch capacity we've installed in Hamburg should help drive volume and profit levels as we meet growing customer demand. We are also fully -- more fully utilizing the new capacity in Pakistan to meet strong consumer trends. Cash generated by operations was positive in the first half and much better than the year ago period as the seasonal build of working capital was a smaller use of cash reflecting lower raw material costs. Looking to 2014, we expect another strong year for cash from operations, potentially exceeding our record 2012 figure. And we'll continue to invest in capital projects for growth, as well as cost and process improvements around the world. We continue to expect to spend about $300 million on capital expenditures this year. This brings my section of the presentation to a close now. And I will turn the time back over to Ilene.