Brad Corson
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks Dan. So now let's talk about our operating results for the quarter. Upstream production for the quarter averaged 380,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day, which is down 65000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter and down 52,000 barrels per day versus the first quarter of 2021. This decrease both year-on-year and versus the prior quarter was due mainly to the severe winter weather in Alberta that began late in the fourth quarter and continued into the first quarter, as well as some unplanned downtime at Kearl. Also of note is the ongoing strength in commodity prices. While in the fourth quarter there were a number of factors, which drove the WTI WCS spread wider such as the phased start-up of Line 3 and other smaller industry disruptions. But we saw the spread narrow by about 20% or US$3 a barrel in the first quarter, which improved -- which was improved by egress and inventory draws in Western Canada. The spread has narrowed a further approximately US$0.50 per barrel to start the second quarter and is now in the US$12 to US$13 range indicative of pipeline economics. As a large bitumen producer, Imperial stands to benefit from improved pricing for Canadian heavy barrels. So now I'd like to talk a little bit more about Kearl. After a stellar 2021 in which Kearl set new production records in nine out of 12 months, we ran up against some challenges in the first quarter of this year, related primarily to extreme cold weather conditions and also some unplanned downtime, both of which we talked about on our fourth quarter earnings call as well as at our Investor Day in March. Production at Kearl in the first quarter averaged 186,000 barrels per day gross, which was down 84,000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter and down 65,000 barrels per day versus the first quarter of 2021. As you are aware and we've talked about this in the past, the first quarter in any year is expected to be our lowest production quarter at Kearl due in large part to seasonality driven by operating in the winter weather conditions. However, this winter saw unusually severe cold weather starting late in the fourth quarter, which carried well into January. This resulted in some atypical operating challenges especially in our mining operations. In addition, it led to extended unplanned downtime at Kearl mainly in the ore preparation area as we work to recover from the challenging start to the year. But I'm pleased to say that as of now our operations have essentially returned back to normal with April month-to-date gross production at 250,000 barrels per day. And while we realize the start to the year has created a challenge in meeting our full year guidance, we feel any change to the guidance this early in the year would be premature. As you are aware, we are heading into our annual turnaround, and once that is complete and we assess the progress of our recovery plans, we will revisit whether an update is necessary. Kearl has developed a track record over the last two years of beating expectations and the team is laser-focused on recovering and delivering a strong year again. Now looking forward to the second quarter, as I mentioned, production levels are back on track. In addition, we have our annual Kearl turnaround in the quarter starting in mid-May and running for around five weeks with an annual gross production impact of approximately 10,000 barrels per day. And finally, on Kearl, turning to operating costs, we did see an escalation in unit operating costs in the quarter. Clearly, this was largely related to the lower-than-expected volumes. Longer term, our outlook to achieve USD20 per barrel at Kearl remains intact, as we continue to grow production to 280,000 barrels per day and potentially beyond. Close management of unit cost continues to be core to our approach to maximizing profitability at Kearl. So now let's turn our attention to Cold Lake. And as you know, Cold Lake delivered very positive operating performance in 2021. And I'm pleased to say that, performance has continued into 2022. Production for the quarter averaged 140,000 barrels per day, which was down slightly versus the fourth quarter and flat with the first quarter of 2021. Our ongoing focus on production optimization and reliability continues to deliver benefits and is providing a highly cost-efficient offset to natural base decline. And the strong performance at Cold Lake has continued into the second quarter. Our April month-to-date production is at 148,000 barrels per day. I would also mention though, that we do have some very light planned turnaround activity at our Leming plant starting in late-May and continuing to late-June. The expected production impact for the year is around 1,000 barrels per day. Now turning to Syncrude, Imperial share of Syncrude production for the quarter averaged 77,000 barrels per day which was down slightly from 79,000 barrels per day in both the fourth quarter as well as the first quarter of 2021. The first quarter of this year did experienced, some challenges presented by the extreme cold weather as well. In addition, some planned downtime for hydrotreater maintenance which carried into the second quarter. The total impact of this maintenance is expected to be about 1,000 barrels per day for the year. Of note, though, Syncrude delivered their best ever first quarter bitumen production in association with strong mining and extraction performance and good utilization of the interconnecting pipelines. Guidance of 75,000 to 80,000 barrels per day for the year reflects the impacts of the planned maintenance I just mentioned as well as a major coker turnaround in the third quarter. And before we move on to the Downstream, I also want to just make a quick comment about the status of our marketing efforts regarding our unconventional assets. As you will recall the bid window closed at the end of March. And as I indicated a while ago the interest level has been quite high. We're in the process of evaluating the bids. And we'll provide more information as it becomes available. I would reiterate though, that no decision to sell the assets has been made up to this point. Now moving to the Downstream, we refined an average of 399,000 barrels per day in the first quarter which was down 17,000 barrels a day versus the fourth quarter of 2021 and up 35,000 barrels per day versus the first quarter of 2021, reflecting continued strong operating performance. Our refinery utilization was 93%. This is the third straight quarter above 90% and represents an 8% increase over the first quarter of 2021. This year-over-year increase is reflective of the ongoing post-COVID demand recovery. We also commenced our turnaround at Sarnia in the quarter, which was completed in April. This work had minimal impact on utilization, and was completed on schedule and on budget. And that also completes our planned turnaround activity in the Downstream for the year. As I've mentioned in the past, this is a light turnaround year for the Downstream. In the first quarter, our petroleum product sales were 447,000 barrels per day, which is down 49000 barrels per day versus the fourth quarter of 2021, but up 33,000 barrels per day versus the first quarter of 2021. Now, while the increase versus the first quarter reflects ongoing recovery from the pandemic-related softness, we did see pandemic-related restrictions increase somewhat early in the first quarter of this year, driving the softer demands and mainly for gasoline versus the first – versus the fourth quarter. We continue to see industry demand trends pretty consistent with what we saw through 2021, with gasoline and diesel demands hovering around 90% of historical levels and jet continuing to improve, but averaging around 70% to 80%. Canadian jet demand continues to trend toward more normal levels as COVID restrictions continue to ease. And also of note is that, our jet sales volumes continue to track above 10% ahead of industry, predominantly related to competitive gains we were able to capture in 2021 which has increased our overall market share. We are seeing a positive Downstream margin environment continue into the second quarter, due to several factors, including low product inventories and global export constraints. However, the market is also proving to be highly volatile, and we are seeing fairly large swings in Downstream margins. Also of note for our Downstream, as I mentioned earlier the first quarter saw the completion of the Sarnia Products Pipeline project, ahead of schedule. Commissioning and start-up was completed in April. This line will provide secure reliable access into our largest market Toronto, and it will also support a reduction in transportation costs of around $40 million per year. And one final item worth noting is that, we announced an expanded partnership with Loblaw's PC Optimum loyalty program, which now provides the opportunity to redeem PC Optimum points at more than 2000 Esso stations across Canada. This is one of the largest loyalty programs in Canada, and we expect the expanded partnership to bolster our leading market share. So that brings us to Chemicals now. This business delivered $56 million in earnings in the first quarter, which was down slightly from the fourth quarter of 2021, as we saw the all-time high margins of 2021 begin to ease somewhat. However, these margins still remain quite strong and we're looking forward to another year of solid results from our Chemical business. In closing now, I would summarize, the first quarter as a very strong quarter though not without some operational challenges that, I am confident are behind us now. As we look forward, our operational focus should allow us to benefit further from the very strong commodity price environment, we are currently experiencing. And our $2.5 billion substantial issuer bid announcement continues to underscore our ongoing commitment to drive shareholder value and our continued commitment to shareholder returns. Looking forward for the rest of 2022, our priorities have not changed. We remain focused on optimizing our existing asset base and delivering superior shareholder value through enhanced reliability, and maximizing performance in a period of strong commodity prices, allowing us to take utmost advantage of the current market conditions. And hand-in-hand with that comes a continued focus on sustainability as we progress our plans for renewable diesel at our Strathcona refinery and a host of other greenhouse gas advantaged projects such as Grand Rapids Phase I and our Leming redevelopment. Not only do these projects play a key role in our emissions reduction focus, but they also provide economic volume growth for our business. We will remain disciplined with respect to spending levels both operating and capital and we will also continue to return cash in excess of these needs to our shareholders. So finally, I'd like to thank you once again for your continued interest and support in our Company.