Richard Kruger
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open
Yes. Emily, fair question. And what I've said before is, we would not -- a year-and-a-half, almost coming up on two years, we would not have reinstituted a share buyback program if we thought it was going to be something that would be short term in nature. Now we've also said that, if you look at our capital allocation strategy and kind of that pecking order I described about paying -- strong balance sheet, the dividend, quality investment, sustaining CapEx, we've always looked at the share buybacks as kind of the flywheel to go up and down if and when we have surplus cash. But now, if I get -- and I take the environment today, this year we generated about -- just shy of $4 billion. WCS was $39 a barrel. I'll get to differentials in a minute. Last year, at 2017 WCS was $39 a barrel. And we generated just shy of $3 billion. So, the storyline in the year were differentials and what that did on our Downstream in 2017, the differentials, the heavy-light differential -- excuse me, the Canadian light differential was $3 or $4 a barrel, the WCS was $12 or $13. That was 2017. And we generated $3 billion. In 2018, those differentials were much bigger, we generated 4. Whereas if I look today, or literally yesterday, WCS $44 a barrel. The Canadian light differential about $4. The Canadian heavy differential about $10. So all of that is about where we were in 2017, when we had strong Downstream performance we had strong Upstream cash generation. WCS is a bit higher today. So it's hard to predict for the year, because we're looking at a snapshot in time. But the dividend, roughly $600 million a year, we've released that kind of the capital guidance, 2.3, plus or minus $1 billion including some $800 million in Aspen. And so, you march down from the dividend, the CapEx. I think the share buybacks, it will be dependent on the macro environment, what it does and how our true spending unfolds. Our intent is that we will continue at a ratable level, but it will depend. We also have $1 billion cash on hand and that we typically don't carry a lot of cash. So I think we still have a great deal of flexibility to do all those things that are important to us. Strong balance sheet, reliable and growing dividend, fund attractive growth projects and a sustaining capital in there, and then continue to return surplus cash to shareholders if and as available. And I still see that as a part of our 2019 business plan. Absolute quantum is difficult to say. It always is difficult to say, because it depends on a number of things. But I don't think my earlier comments, including with spending on Aspen. I stand by my earlier comments. I think 2019 will be much the way we've described it in the past.