Earnings Labs

IMAX Corporation (IMAX)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 26, 2019

$37.05

-0.19%

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Transcript

Rich Gelfond

Management

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. We believe our achievements over the past 18 months have set the stage for IMAX several blockbuster year in 2019. The story is quite simple. Beginning in 2017, we made a series of strategic and tactical decisions to improve the performance of our business from top to bottom. We committed to increasing the differentiation of the IMAX experience, more effectively marketing the IMAX brand and tackling our challenges in China. As evidenced by our box office success in 2018 and into the early part of 2019, these initiatives have started working. While there is still work to be done, the team is committed, energized and optimistic as we start the New Year. I’d like to kick-off the call by providing some additional color on these four business initiatives and then move on to our positive outlook for 2019. First, IMAX replaced -- we are extremely happy with the initial reactions from our exhibitor partners and their continued commitment to growing with our laser technology this year. In just the first 18 months of launch, we signed agreements for over 200 systems. We also installed 35 laser systems between June and December across new and existing IMAX locations. Driving this activity are some of the largest exhibitors of the world, including AMC, Cineworld and Pathé. Many of these signings represent more than just the technology update. They represent an entirely upgraded IMAX consumer experience. For example, in the majority of these signings, our exhibitor partners are creating an entirely new in-theater IMAX experience, including new seating, entry ways and branding. Next, marketing. As we continue to increase the differentiation of our experience and feature more films with IMAX DNA, it has become increasingly important that we effectively educate consumers on the benefits of seeing their…

Patrick McClymont

Management

Thanks, Rich, and good afternoon, everyone. Before diving into our financial results and outlook for 2019, I'd like to discuss how we think about our recent performance and where the business is trending. There are three things that matter in assessing the quality of any business; growth, margin and return. IMAX is now producing improving results across each of these metrics. First growth, 2018 mark an inflection point of solid growth following the period of flat performance. Box office for the year increased 6% and revenue grew 4% excluding Inhumans. We achieved this by focusing on our core business, launching our new brand campaign and refining our programming strategy. We expect these strategies to bear further fruit as we capitalize on our promise slate of films this year. While we are not providing guidance on this metric as a framework for 2019, we estimate box office growing in the mid-to-high single-digit range. Next margins, I'd like to focus on our adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding the impact of the Inhumans project, which makes comparisons difficult. Our adjusted EBITDA margin peaked in 2015 at 40.5%. For 2015 through 2017, our margins compressed as we made investments in growing our network and pursuing new businesses. 2017 and 2018 were important inflection points as we underwent the cost restructuring and refocused on our core business. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded in 2017, and again in 2018. This year, if we were to achieve the mid -to-high single-digit box office growth, we would expect EBITDA margins to return to levels achieved in 2015. Finally returns, we like to look at returns before the impact of the minority interest for the public shareholders and the China business. This allows us to assess returns of a whole enterprise we are managing regardless of ownership structure. Our ROIC peaked…

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Eric Handler with MKM Partners.

Eric Handler

Analyst

Rich, I am wondering if you could talk a little bit about your installations this year of how much is going to be China driven, how much is the rest of the world. And as far as the pace of signings that you're seeing right now on maybe your backlog or signings that could occur in the next eight months. Where are you seeing the most -- where is it busiest, or where are the most signings occurring right now?

Rich Gelfond

Management

So, I'll talk first about signings and then Patrick will go into the in stallion question. On the signings activity, remains very strong I'd say at the moment, consistent with the last almost several years. We have still a significant amount of activity in China going on. And from a lot of players not just concentrated in one player, the Middle East is looking very strong. And we have a lot of things going on there that I could see coming to fruition in the next couple of months. Japan is still very good where we've seen some of our highest PSAs in the world. Other Asian countries like Korea there is a lot of activity. It's pretty good. As I said, trying to think about missing anything Western Europe is still things going on. So consistent what we've seen before, but the same gestalt around it. Patrick?

Patrick McClymont

Management

On the installations, China looks like it will be 90 to 95 theaters in 2019 and the balance for new theaters up to the 141 to 145 will be consistent with what we saw in 2018.

Eric Handler

Analyst

And just in case I missed it. How much do you expect to be street sales, how much JV, how much hybrid? And then I think it was very interesting Patrick that you're looking at ROIC analysis. And just curious what you are using for your weighted average cost of capital there?

Patrick McClymont

Management

Well, I answer the second first. On the ROIC, I don’t need any cost of capital to calculate that, it's just the straight ROIC position. In terms of how we think about deploying capital, I think we've consistently said as we look at projects, we want to see something, the theaters for example, when we think about deploying capital on JV. We've talked about that we wanted to be on a path to achieving 15% plus ROIC.

Rich Gelfond

Management

And then in terms of the mix, we are not providing specific disclosure or guidance around how the mix will unfold for this year. We've got a combination this year between new and upgrades and we've got a mix between the different types. Generally speaking, it should be consistent with what we've seen historically. But we won't be giving a specific guidance on that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JPMorgan.

This is David in for Alexia. Just regarding your box office outlook for mid-to-high single-digit growth. Is there any additional color you can provide on that in terms of breakdown by region or just any guidance you can gave around the cadence as we go through the year?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Again, we said before that predicting movies is like predicting the weather. So, I think it's very difficult to be specific as to regions or what not. But our China business, as I said, is up over 60% for the first two months and that's really before you started to open any new Hollywood blockbuster. So that's an area I think we expect to see some significant growth. I mean, Captain Marvel is opening day in day in China on March 8th, I believe it is. And the tracking and the presales, as I said, are quite strong. Avengers, on a global basis, was one of the best movies box office wise in years, and I think you'll see the same global effect on that. Lion King is some people are talking about those numbers being better even than the Avengers numbers, and again global I would say. And then you look at Spider-Man, Aladin, Dumbo, Star Wars. And one of the interesting things about Star Wars is this one actually has an ending rather than a set up for a sequel, and I think that should drive growth there. So we haven't pinpointed it by region but we've actually seen footage from a number of these movies, and we're feeling quite bullish about the box office.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · JPMorgan.

And then can you just maybe discuss the wider significance on Wandering Earth. What is the success of this movie mean in terms of you not only how China's consumers view the IMAX experience but just also local film maker? Thanks.

Rich Gelfond

Management

So I think when you have to look. When you take a step back, China's total box office was around $9 billion last year. So that means within that ecosystem when they model out the movies they can make, they could afford better special effects, better acting, better production values. And so that's the first thing the kinds of movies that people like to see in IMAX are really higher quality productions. The other thing is it's a new genre, so Sci-Fi hasn’t really worked in China until now. So I think when you have freedom to go into more genres and you have more money to have higher quality box office and you've take into effect the fact that IMAX is doing better, not only in tier one cities on movie like wondering but in the lower tier cities, I think it bodes very well for that market for us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Vasily Karasyov with Cannonball Research.

Vasily Karasyov

Analyst · Cannonball Research.

I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the box office expectations. If you were to point out today area where you think the most risk is concentrated. Which geography would it be and what time period, if not quarter, but would it be first half of the year, second half of the year, China, the U.S. or other international?

Rich Gelfond

Management

There is no such thing as a risk-free movie slate. But I think the global movies there are this year and remember, Q1 was in a way the riskiest so far, because we haven't really open a blockbuster Captain Marvel is the first one. And Q2 is back to, back to back. Again, I don’t want to overstate it, because I'm not pretending to predict movies. But I don't really see a big risk across this year in the titles that we're involved with. I don't think there's much of a risk in Avengers too film with our cameras, Endgame I mean. I don’t think there's much risk in Lion King. I don’t know if you saw the recent commercials on the Oscars. But the scope and scale and the work of that is just terrific. As I said that, because it's the last in the series, I just don't see a lot of risk and where Star Wars is. I think again there is a comment which I'm going to carry out, because some movies business you always could be wrong. But I think these are the kinds of titles that play across regions. I guess the other thing I should mention is in China over the summer season there's a movie being released that was filmed in part with IMAX cameras. And what we've work out again is harder to predict in China, but the slate looks pretty good over there also. So I just not worried about much right now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Steven Frankel with Dougherty.

Steven Frankel

Analyst · Dougherty.

These tweaks to the China tactics clearly have paid-off. Have you learned anything from that that you could apply either to the rest of the world or to North America, or do you think these were really China specific changes?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Well, I think there is one that we could certainly apply to the rest of world and that's more data analytics. Because of the way the platforms work in China, there is more targeted marketing that's available. And I think we intend strategically and to do that in different areas of the world. We're targeting targeted marketing efforts in more ways to identify audiences and we're definitely going to do that in the rest of world as well as China. That would be the one thing I would say. I'm also hopeful in China. One of the problems in China is that you can't start marketing a movie until it's dated. But some of them were recent movies like Captain Marvel is already dated to go day in day with us and China. So we could start the marketing efforts earlier than we could have before. Patrick has been spending a little more time than I have. Are there any other lessons you think from China that we could apply abroad?

Patrick McClymont

Management

Well, the programming flexibility is the concept that we've used elsewhere in the world. And particularly you saw it a lot at the end of the year and beginning of the year where we had strong performance from movies that had lags, but we also reintroduced certain films with great for example with Bohemian Rhapsody in Japan. We displayed in that market for a period of time. I think the approach of being nimble in China has taught us that we can be nimble in every market. We don't always need to do it. We will need to do it when we've got these big blockbusters that Rich has went through but during certain periods having that flexibility. And now we can point to our exhibitor partners that are at work to deliver more value for them is an effective strategy.

Steven Frankel

Analyst · Dougherty.

And maybe some qualitative commentary on what the impact of the A list has been on your, or subscription programs in general on your business?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Well, we’ve seen our indexing in North America go up for many of the blockbuster movies. And as the matter of fact for Alita, we were about 13% of the U.S. box office, which is traditionally our indexing was around 10. So throughout the last number of movies, we've seen it go up. So that will be one qualitative thing I would say. I think it brings more people into the IMAX Theater. AMC has shared with me some data and I don't know if it's public or not, and you can ask them on their conference call in a few days. But it's shown a lot more people are going to IMAX Theater as a result of the A list program. I also think overtime, because many of the exhibitors in Europe have subscription programs in slightly different forms, you will see more of these programs that I think they'll be more to our benefit.

Steven Frankel

Analyst · Dougherty.

And you traditionally have given out PSAs. I know you talked about trying to get away from that but for consistency state just to finish out 2018. Could we have what the PSAs were by region for the quarter?

Patrick McClymont

Management

Steve, we have moved away from that for all the reasons that we've talked about. It's simply an output. It's not how we think about growing our business and it's not how we think about managing our business. We are very focused on driving as much box office as possible through the network and as much revenue. And on a go forward basis as we grow, if we are deploying capital, it's all about return on invested capital. So that's where we were focused on. So we haven't moved away from PSAs. There's data that's available in our historical model out there, but it's not something that we focused on.

Steven Frankel

Analyst · Dougherty.

And then maybe one last one. As part of the change in China, you were going to be more proactive of pushing the customer toward maybe a hybrid, maybe a sale in the particular place as opposed to the starting with JV every time. How has that mix change with this new policy? Has there been a material change in what's being installed or what's being signed?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Yes, it has changed. I'm trying to get the data here as for the numbers, but I don't have it in my fingertips. But we definitely move more away from JVs and towards hybrids and sale deals. And it's partly because we're more discerning in that area, especially below tier 1 and tier 2 cities. But we've been successful at that and increasing the number of sales in hybrids and decrease in the JVs as a percentage of the deals we do.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

Chad Beynon

Analyst · Macquarie.

First, no one has touched on the laser, so congrats on the signings and everything that's out in the market now. Can you talk about anything you are seeing from a visitation or a pricing standpoint so far? And could you just remind us what the approach is for your partners that have lasers if they've adjusted pricing, or if they are waiting to see just the initial demand there? Thanks.

Rich Gelfond

Management

It's really too early to say. By the way I misspoke in my remarks. I said we have signed 200 deals in 18 months, it's actually eight months. So I just wanted to clarify that. But it’s really too early. The number in North America, we only had 10 open in North America and we did 35 all year. And most of those were in the fourth quarter. So I mean just it’s just too early to tell.

Chad Beynon

Analyst · Macquarie.

Is there any adjustment on the economics -- go ahead Rich…

Rich Gelfond

Management

Yes, there was an adjustment on the economic. On the JVs, generally we have a higher take rate when it's laser. But I mean you just can't use three weeks data or a month's data to say what a trend line is. So we will let you know over the next year or so when we see what the impact is. But especially it's film-by-film you can't tell what the attendance would have been. I can tell you our indexing is a little better. But again, it's such a small number I hesitate to attribute it to that.

Patrick McClymont

Management

There's certainly data, exit surveys, people going through the experience is overwhelmingly positive. And exhibitor partners absolutely are very positive on it and then the actual end consumer who've experienced it. And so far the reviews are very strong.

Chad Beynon

Analyst · Macquarie.

My follow-up is around streaming platforms. Last quarter, you put a carried out there talking about what your business can do for some of the streaming platforms and we haven't heard any update there. So wondering if you still have those views, and if there is anything to announce or how we should think about that in 2019 and beyond?

Rich Gelfond

Management

So I'm in LA the last month and Megan and I have been meeting with most of the streaming platforms, and updating in our discussions. I think a lot of them is still in the business of figuring out what their strategy is, and the ways that they see that coming. The only difference might be that Megan has somewhat of an expansive view on what we could do with the streaming platforms, which would include different forms of alternative content, not just standard showing a movie. And we've started to tee that up and we were at different degrees of positive reaction for that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from Mike Hickey with Benchmark Company.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company.

Rich, Patrick, congrats guys. Great quarter, great year and definitely, a lot of success in China. Sorry if I miss this. But will you specific to key changes that you've made in the methodology of film selection. It seems like you missed it to your big films before, it seems like you are taking the right ones now. So curious if there's any difference in your approach?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Yes, the difference is in China specifically during the holiday period, we're programming three films at a time. So even this Chinese New Year, we had three films, of which Wandering Earth was one of them. And it didn’t open as the number one movie on the first day. But the ticketing platform, Maoyan, which as I mentioned earlier, we are trying to develop a broader alliance with. The consumers rate the movie on the day it comes out. And Wandering Earth had by far the highest rating. And then the exhibitors changed over and we changed our most of our schedule in Wandering Earth, and it took off. So that was one way of going about it and changing our approach. I think another reason we got involved in China with Maoyan is we're going to try and get a little bit more data upfront testing data to help supplement the way we think about it. I think in North America and outside of China, we have such good relationships with our studio partners that those are discussions with projects years out. And I think as you know Megan just joined, I think she'll get involved and looking at that. And I think the process will be largely consistent. And then overtime, we'll see if she wants a tweak it but that's been working pretty well for us.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company.

The last one from me is I think you had made an effort to get your cameras into the China film-making progress. Just curious how that's evolving for you?

Rich Gelfond

Management

Well, it's gone pretty well. We're releasing our first film that’s used a fair amount of IMAX footage this summer. And we've been talking to a lot of filmmakers. Megan is going over in mid-March to meet with some people. And we're trying to increase the amount of DNA in IMAX films, so that's going pretty well for us.

Patrick McClymont

Management

The film is called 800 that's been announced that our cameras are in that. And then there is others that have not been announced yet but we anticipate announcing sometime this year. So we are starting to make progress over there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I like to now turn the call over to Rich Gelfond for closing remarks.

Rich Gelfond

Management

Yes, I wanted to follow-up on my opening comments. In 2016, we noticed some trends, particularly at China and we responded with a strategy of more differentiation launching the laser product. We raised our marketing spend and raised our marketing game. I think took a little while to take hold, but a lot of that hold in '18. And as Patrick said, you saw margin expansion and revenue growth and different things. And we think when you layer that on top of the 2019 on film slate we're in a really good place. And just qualitatively, I would say I have not seen the IMAX organization as pumped as we are in '19. Overall, we feel really good about things. And thanks, operator.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.