Steve Howden
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Sam, and hello, everyone. Let's take a look at Slide 8, where we show our 1Q '25 performance. Our results were in line with expectations and came with a backdrop of a more stable macroeconomic environment in Nigeria. As we look at the results, please note, firstly, the year-over-year comparisons are impacted by the late January 2024 devaluation in Naira, which dragged down the 1Q '24 comparator. Secondly, the December 2024 Kuwait disposal, meaning no MENA contribution now in 2025. And thirdly, the impact of the renewed and extended contracts with MTN Nigeria signed in August of last year, including associated site churn, continue to impact the comparisons. In terms of the results themselves, both towers and tenants were down approximately 3% and 1%, respectively, year-over-year, while lease amendments increased by high single-digit percentages. The decline in both towers and tenants is primarily a reflection of the divestitures of towers in Kuwait and Peru. And excluding the impact of these disposals, we added 1,375 net tenants year-on-year. We also saw the initial impact of the 1,050 sites that MTN Nigeria will vacate this year. As of the end of Q1, 183 tenants, including 347 lease amendments, have churned with an approximate $1.6 million reduction in revenue year-on-year as a result. On a reported basis, in the first quarter, revenue increased by approximately 5% year-on-year with organic growth of almost 26% more than offsetting the 14% depreciation of the Naira against the dollar and the Kuwait disposal. As a reminder, Naira average FX rate was NGN 1,316 to the dollar in Q1 of last year and NGN 1,527 to the dollar in Q1 of this year. We should caution that given how the Naira has moved in 4Q '24, 1Q '25 and now into 2Q '25, we reset our Nigeria contracts at the beginning of January 2025 at a higher rate than the 1Q '25 average rate turned out to be as the Naira was appreciating in the first quarter. This results in a quarter of FX tailwind in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was up more than 36% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA margin was up 1,320 basis points, again, comparing to the low point of 1Q '24 as well as reflecting our continued cost control and the resilience of our financial model through contract resets. Meanwhile, ALFCF increased by approximately 248%, driven by improved profitability, a low quarter of maintenance CapEx and the rephasing of interest payments between quarters following the November bond refinancing, where our bond payments will now reflect in the second and fourth quarters of each year. To put some numbers to this, if we look solely at the phasing of interest on our various Group-level dollar bonds, they carry interest of $11 million in each of Q1 and Q3 versus $70 million in each of Q2 and Q4. Our level of CapEx investment decreased by 18% in the quarter, largely driven by the pullback in CapEx as we continue to focus on improving cash generation. And finally, our consolidated net leverage ratio decreased to 3.4x having peaked at 3.9x in the second and third quarter of 2024, including a reduction of 0.3x from the fourth quarter to the end of this quarter, well within our target of 3x to 4x. Slide 9 shows the components of our 1Q '25 revenue on a consolidated basis, where you can see how the business delivered a quarter of growth despite the impact of the Naira devaluation and the Kuwait disposal. From a constant currency perspective, revenue grew approximately 8%, driven primarily by CPI escalations, new colocations and new lease amendments, positive signs of the fundamental underlying tenancy growth continuing across our key markets. The strong organic revenue growth of 26% was supplemented by the benefits of our FX resets and power protection mechanisms. The right side again shows the organic growth rates of each of our segments for the quarter, where our Nigeria segment grew approximately 46%, including a large benefit from FX resets and despite the initial impact of the financial terms in the renewed and extended contracts with MTN Nigeria. On Slide 10, you can see our consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins for 1Q '25. Specifically, in 1Q '25, our adjusted EBITDA was $253 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 57.5%, continuing the trend of higher margins post the 1Q '24 dip from that Naira devaluation. On to Slide 11, we show adjusted levered free cash flow. In the first quarter of '25, we generated ALFCF of $150 million, a 248% increase year-over-year, in line with our expectations and primarily due to the increase in adjusted EBITDA, low maintenance CapEx in the quarter and a decrease in net interest paid driven by the rephasing of interest payments. As I mentioned just earlier, the bond payments will now reflect in the second and fourth quarter of the year. In addition, we benefited from the decrease in the withholding tax rates in Nigeria from 10% to 2%. Our ALFCF cash conversion rate was 59.3%. On to CapEx. And in the first quarter, CapEx of $44 million decreased 18% year-on-year, continuing last year's trend. The decrease was driven by lower CapEx on fiber and augmentation CapEx and a decline in new site CapEx, although we still retain a healthy level of new site build in Brazil. On the segment review on Slide 12, I'll start as usual with Nigeria. But following the 6 rate hikes we saw in 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee has continued to keep interest rates steady with the NPR at 27.5%. Nigeria's FX market stabilized in the first quarter of '25 and the Naira averaged NGN 1,527 to the dollar in the quarter, albeit an increase year-over-year, but down from the NGN 1,629 as of the fourth quarter 2024. USD liquidity remains good. We've seen a small decrease in the FX reserves to $38.3 billion at the end of March from $40.9 billion at the end of December last year. And inflation has remained stable at 24.2% as of March. The government continues to make macroeconomic progress and investor confidence seems to be returning. For IHS in Nigeria, 1Q '25 revenue of $271 million increased 19% year-on-year on a reported basis, driven primarily by FX resets from the low of 1Q '24 to now, power indexation, escalations, and tenancy growth. Offsetting factors include the impact of the financial terms in the renewed MTN Nigeria MLAs, including the approximate $1.6 million reduction in revenue year-on-year from the associated reduction in tenancies and lease amendments that I mentioned earlier. Separately, lease amendments continue to be an important driver of growth, increasing 1.4% year-on-year as our customers add additional equipment to our sites, notwithstanding the MTN Nigeria churn. 1Q '25 segment adjusted EBITDA in Nigeria was $179 million, a 74.1% increase from a year ago, with the first quarter of last year negatively impacted by the Naira devaluation in that period. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin was up 2,080 basis points to 66%, given the increase in revenue we've already discussed and along with the reduction in cost of sales and admin expenses, primarily due to the devaluation of the Naira. In our Sub-Saharan African segment, revenue decreased 8.1% and segment adjusted EBITDA increased 2.9% year-on-year. This performance was primarily due to lower revenues, but also lower associated costs being recognized in South Africa following the unwind of the power managed services agreement with MTN South Africa that took effect in the second quarter of 2024. These revenue changes have no impact on segment adjusted EBITDA. The performance has further benefited from new colocations, lower power generation costs, security services and maintenance costs. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 640 basis points as a result to 59.4%. In our Latam segment, towers and tenants grew by 6.7% and 8.2%, respectively, versus the first quarter of last year. Revenue decreased by 0.5% because of negative movements in FX rates, but was broadly offset by continued growth in tenants, lease amendments and new sites. In Brazil, our second largest market with 8,400 towers, macro conditions were more benign this quarter as the Brazilian real was largely flat against the dollar, and there were moderate increases in both interest rates and inflation. Moving to Latam profitability, while segment adjusted EBITDA increased by 5%, segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 420 basis points versus the first quarter of 2024, which mostly reflects the reduction in costs more than offsetting the decrease in revenue. As we mentioned last quarter, given our Kuwait disposal and our decision not to commence operations in Egypt, MENA is no longer a reportable segment. Moving to Slide 14, we look at our capital structure and related items. At March 31, 2025, we had approximately $4 billion of external debt and IFRS 16 lease liabilities. Of the $4 billion, approximately $2.2 billion represents our bond financings. Most recently, post the end of the first quarter in April this year, the outstanding balance of approximately $86 million equivalent on our Nigeria term loan was fully prepaid using local Naira cash. This Naira term loan carried a high interest rate and is in line with our focus to reduce debt, particularly high interest debt. Cash and cash equivalents was $629 million as of March 31, bringing our total liquidity to $929 million. In terms of where that cash is held, approximately 29% was held in Naira at our Nigeria business. But as I just explained, some of that local Naira cash was used to pay down debt post quarter end. Consequently, while our consolidated net debt was relatively flat at $3.3 billion quarter-over-quarter, our consolidated net leverage ratio of 3.4x at the end of Q1 was down 0.3x versus the end of December 2024. And as Sam previously highlighted, the 3.4x leverage does not reflect any proceeds from the Rwanda disposal. We expect leverage to remain within the bottom half of our target 3x to 4x net leverage ratio in 2025, supplemented by the cash proceeds from the Rwanda disposal once it closes and any other further disposals. Moving to Slide 15. Given that the first quarter has been in line with our expectations, we're maintaining our 2025 guidance. As a reminder, our guidance shows further growth in 2025 versus 2024 in our revenues when excluding the impact of the Kuwait disposal and growth in adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF. A couple of points I'd like to further highlight. Firstly, we had a strong first quarter of ALFCF with $150 million generated in the quarter. This phasing of ALFCF through the year was expected and known to us when we set our guidance at the Q4 results. And as I mentioned earlier, the majority of our interest is paid in 2Q and 4Q. And given this and the timing of maintenance CapEx plans, we continue to expect to step down in ALFCF in the second quarter, leaving us on track for our 2025 outlook of $350 million to $370 million. And secondly, we continue to assume a full year of contribution from Rwanda in our guidance. However, we expect to close the disposal of our Rwandan operations announced today during the second half of 2025. And -- should we need to update our outlook for a lower contribution during this year, we will do so following the completion of the transaction. This now brings us to the end of our formal presentation. We thank you for your time today. And operator, please now open the line for questions.