Steve Howden
Analyst · Michael Rollins from Citigroup. Your line is open
Thanks, Sam, and hello, everyone. Turning to Slide 8, as Sam mentioned, here we show our third quarter performance. As you see, both towers and tenants are up approximately 2% in 3Q 2024 versus 3Q 2023, while lease amendments again increased by double-digit percentages, positive signs of the fundamental underlying tenancy growth continuing across our key markets. While revenue is down 10% year-on-year and a few percentage points from the second quarter 2024, the quarter reflects a very different FX environment versus third quarter last year, and now the impact of the MTN Nigeria commercial deal since the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA, however, is up, reflecting continued cost control and highlighting the resilience of our financial model. Specifically, in 3Q, we saw adjusted EBITDA increased 3% year-over-year and we saw a significant increase in our adjusted EBITDA margin of 750 basis points versus 3Q last year, reaching 58.5% in the quarter. ALFCF, meanwhile, also increased by approximately 2% year-over-year. Our level of CapEx investment decreased by 34% in the quarter, driven by the pullback in CapEx across all our segments as we focus on improving cash generation. Finally, our consolidated net leverage ratio increased year-on-year to 3.9 times at the end of the third quarter, but in line with Q2 2024. As previously communicated, we continue to expect to remain within our target 3 times to 4 times range, albeit to remain at the higher end of the range this year. So, revenue, much as we expected, complemented by an increase in adjusted EBITDA, an increase in adjusted EBITDA margin, an increase in ALFCF and a decrease in CapEx. Turning to our revenue, on a consolidated basis, you can see how the continued devaluation turned a quarter of strong organic growth into a 10% decline. The Naira devalued 52% in 3Q 2024 versus 3Q 2023, yet the business delivered organic revenue growth of 49%, driven primarily by FX resets, by power, and by CPI escalations. Note that the revenue growth drivers here are illustrative of the rebased USD components, shown as if the MTN Nigeria renewal was in place in the third quarter of the last year. You’ll see the larger contribution from power in the third quarter compared to recent quarters, driven by the increase in the power component of our use fees as a result of that MTN Nigeria renewal, which I’ll discuss in more detail on the next slide. New lease amendments, fiber, new colocation and new sites also contributed to organic growth this quarter and came from countries across our portfolio. The right side again shows the organic growth rates of each of our segments for the quarter, where our Nigeria segment grew approximately 87%, including a large benefit from FX resets. Moving to slide 10, I just want to take a moment to detail the excellent work our teams have done over recent periods to materially reduce our exposure to movements in power price and derisk our operating model. In this regard, our business now is very different to what was at the beginning of 2024. In a number of steps, we have moved from a company with meaningful exposure to power prices to one with a significant majority of our business now being power passed through or power indexed. Looking at the middle chart on Slide 10, you can see that our third quarter 2024 revenue split now reflects the new contractual terms from MTN Nigeria following the renewal of all of our tower MLAs back in August of this year. We continue to believe that the new structure provides a more balanced split between foreign and local currencies, and the newly introduced diesel-linked component is intended to act as a hedge against diesel price and FX fluctuations. Under these new terms, our direct USD exposure is reduced, but in return, we no longer own the risk of diesel price fluctuations, which is now passed on to MTN Nigeria through diesel indexation. The new power element, in our view, also acts as a hedge against movements in the Naira-dollar rate, given that the local diesel price reflects movements in global diesel prices, which are priced in dollars. As a reminder, the USD component will continue to benefit from quarterly FX resets and annual US CPI-linked escalations and the local currency component will continue to benefit from local CPI-linked escalations now applied every six months rather than annually. This significant change of introducing power indexation to our use fees with MTN in Nigeria, together with unbundling the power managed services contract with MTN in South Africa in the second quarter, now means that IHS has moved its business model to being further protected against power price volatility across our footprint. On Slide 11, you can see our consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins for third quarter 2024 as we’ve already discussed. Specifically, in the third quarter, the adjusted EBITDA of $246 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 58.5%, benefited from a decrease in cost of sales as we seek to drive efficiencies across a number of our cost lines, including tower repairs and maintenance costs and regulatory fees. On slide 12, we review our adjusted levered free cash flow. In the third quarter of 2024, we generated ALFCF of $87 million, a 1.6% increase versus third quarter last year, primarily due to the increase in adjusted EBITDA and a decrease in revenue withholding tax, partially offset by an increase in net interest paid. Our ALFCF cash conversion rate was 35.4%. Looking at CapEx, in the third quarter of 2024, CapEx of $66 million decreased 34% year-on-year, continuing the trend we have seen over recent quarters. The decrease was driven by lower capital expenditures across all our segments and the decrease in Nigeria was primarily driven by decreases related to Project Green, given the investment in this project is largely complete, while the decreases in Sub-Saharan Africa were primarily driven by a decrease in maintenance CapEx, following the unwind with MTN South Africa for the power managed services business. LatAm CapEx declines were driven by decreases related to new site CapEx, although we still retain a healthy level of new site build in Brazil. Please note that our year-to-date cap allocation decisions have led us to reduce our 2024 CapEx guidance that I’ll touch on in more detail later in the call. On the segment review on Slide 13, firstly I’ll add Sam’s earlier comments on what we’re seeing in Nigeria. In September, the CBN made another 50-basis-point rate hike, bringing the NPR to 27.25%. That’s a total of five rate hikes in 2024. These actions appear to have initially had a positive impact on Nigeria’s FX market, albeit the November 8th U.S. dollar to Naira Bloomberg rate is now at $16.68. Most recently, the Nigerian government raised over $900 million following the successful issuance of an inaugural locally issued U.S. dollar bond. The transaction marks a significant step up for Nigeria as the government remains focused on stabilizing the economy with the aim of increasing dollar flow within the country, enhancing the attractiveness of Nigeria as a foreign direct investment destination and improving transparency in the money markets. While there continues to be more to do as a result of these actions, we’ve seen an increase in U.S. dollars in Nigeria and FX reserves in the country have increased again to $38.4 billion at the end of September 2024 from $34.2 billion at the end of June 2024. Since the FX environment adjusted in Q1 of this year, we’ve been able to upstream $155 million to Group during the year from Nigeria alone. We continue to expect to upstream more throughout the rest of the year. For IHS in Nigeria, third quarter 2024 revenue of $242 million decreased 11% year-on-year on a reported basis, reflecting the items we’ve just discussed, the significant FX headwind year-over-year and the impact of the new financial terms in Nigeria. This more than offset the 87% organic growth, which was driven primarily by FX resets and power. Our co-location rate also decreased a little to 1.56 times down from 1.58 times in the third quarter of last year, following the reintegration of 210 towers and 529 tenant churns in the quarter from our smallest key customer in Nigeria, on which we were not recognizing revenue. Lease amendments continue to be a strong driver of growth, increasing 4.8% year-on-year as our customers added additional equipment to our sites. Third quarter 2024 segment adjusted EBITDA in Nigeria was $159 million, a 3.2% decrease from a year ago. But segment adjusted EBITDA margin was up 510 basis points to 65.6%, given a reduction in cost of sales, primarily driven by a decrease in tower repairs and maintenance costs, and despite the year-on-year increase in the cost of diesel. In our Sub-Saharan African segment, towers and tenants increased by 0.9% and 3.4% respectively, versus the third quarter of last year. Revenue is impacted by the unwinding of our power managed services business in South Africa, including lower pass-through revenues being recognized, albeit this has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA. Therefore, revenue for the segment decreased by 10%, but segment adjusted EBITDA increased 22.3%, primarily due to lower regulatory fees and maintenance and power generation costs, following the changes in our agreements with MTN South Africa. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 1780 basis points to 67.5%, again, aided by the continued benefit of the power managed services agreement unwind. In our LatAm segment, towers and tenants grew by 8.9% and 6.5% respectively, versus the third quarter of last year. Revenue decreased by 13% as a result of negative FX movements and reduction in revenue recognition from OI, given their judicial recovery proceedings. In Brazil, our second largest market with 8,109 towers, macro conditions softened this quarter as the Brazilian real devalued against the dollar and there were increases in both interest rates and inflation. Moving on to LatAm profitability, and while segment adjusted EBITDA decreased by 11%, segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 basis points versus the third quarter of last year, which mostly reflects the decrease in revenue, while savings across a number of cost lines were accreted to margins. In MENA segment, towers and tenants grew by approximately 1%, while revenue increased by 23.8%, including 19% organic revenue growth, driven primarily by new sites and lease amendments. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 55.5%, driving the third quarter 2024 segment adjusted EBITDA margin to increase to 63.1%. Moving on to Slide 15, here we look at the capital structure and the related items. As at September 30, 2024, we had approximately $4.1 billion of external debt and IFRS 16 lease liabilities. Of that $4.1 billion, approximately $2 billion represent our bond financings and other indebtedness, which includes $430 million that has now been fully refinanced post the quarter in October 2024, using a new $439 million five-year term loan that we completed in October. As Sam mentioned, this new term loan is evidence of a desire to continue to improve the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, which is a really important component of our strategic review. Not only does the term loan extend our maturity out to 2029 with a bullet structure, the new South African rand tranche swaps dollar obligations into local currency as we seek to closer match our debt FX exposure to our revenue FX profile. Cash and cash equivalents around the Group were $397 million as of September 30, and in terms of where that cash is held, approximately 21% was held in Naira at our Nigerian business. As we mentioned, we were able to upstream another $74 million since the end of the second quarter, bringing the total to $155 million year-to-date as of November 8. While we anticipate to upstream again in 2024, we do caution it remains to be determined if the increased dollar availability can be sustained. So, from all these moving elements, at the end of the third quarter 2024, our consolidated net debt was approximately $3.7 billion and we had an unchanged consolidated net leverage ratio of 3.9 times versus the end of the last quarter in June 2024. We expect leverage to remain within our target 3 times to 4 times net leverage ratio this year prior to the realization of any future disposals, at which time we expect leverage to drop. Moving to Slide 16, given our performance year-to-date, we remain confident on achieving our current revenue, adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF 2024 guidance. Our guidance reflects the updated currency assumptions shown on the slide. And as you can see, some of these new assumptions have had a positive impact on our 2024 financials, such as the Naira, but this is somewhat offset by a number of adverse currency movements negatively impacting our financials in Brazil, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, for example. The net impact, though, is positive, and this combined with solid underlying momentum means that we are trending towards the upper end of our existing revenue adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF guidance ranges. With regards to CapEx, based on our year to date capital allocation decisions and our expectation of making further CapEx savings, we’re revising our full year 2024 CapEx guidance range down to $270 million to $300 million. This is in line with our strategic priority of taking a disciplined approach to capital deployment and improving our cash flow generation. We continue to recognize the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and reiterate our net leverage target of 3 time to 4 times, albeit expecting to remain at the top end of the range over the remainder of the year. As we move into next year, we expect leverage to start to drop organically, driven by adjusted EBITDA growth and higher cash flow generation. Disposals will supplement this deleveraging as and when they complete. We also expect significant increase in ALFCF in 2025, driven by EBITDA growth and lower withholding tax in Nigeria. We will announce our FY 2025 guidance on our next earnings call in the new year. This now brings us to the end of our formal presentation. We thank you for your time today, and Operator, please now open the line for questions.