Earnings Labs

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 20, 2017

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Transcript

Catherine Dolton

Management

Good morning. This is Catherine Dolton, Head of Investor Relations at IHG. I'm joined this morning by Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. Before I hand over to Paul for the discussion of our third quarter results, I need to remind you that in the following discussion, the company may make certain forward-looking statements as defined under U.S. law. Please check this morning's press release and the company's SEC filings that could lead actual results to differ materially from any such forward-looking statements. I'll now turn the call over to Paul.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks Catherine and hello everybody. Thanks for joining us. I’ll begin with some of the key highlights in the period before covering each of our regions in turn and then I’ll open up the call to questions. So, we’ve delivered a good third quarter performance driving RevPAR up 2.3% and net system size growth of 4.1% year-on-year. This is our strongest pace since 2010 and was lead by double-digit growth in our greater China and Asia, Middle East and Africa regions. We opened 11,000 rooms or 70 hotels, which is our highest third quarter rate since 2011. At the same time, we remain focused on removing underperforming hotels from our system, exiting 3,000 rooms most of which were in the Americas. Looking out to future growth, we signed just under 20,000 rooms or 137 hotels into our pipeline. This was our highest third quarter signings pace since 2008 and included almost 7,500 rooms in greater China. This takes our year-to-date signings in the region to over 17,000 rooms, our strongest ever performance by some margin. Our total group pipeline now stands at 235,000 rooms with our share of the active global industry pipeline that’s three times our share of open rooms. We assess that well for future organic growth. At our first half results in August, we talked about the opportunities we see to drive in acceleration in our growth rate focusing on finding further efficiencies to create more fuel for growth and increasing resources behind our highest opportunity markets and segments. With that in mind, in September we announced the official launch of avid hotels. This brand is targeted at the $20 billion midscale segment in the US where 14 million guests are currently underserved by the existing brands. Avid hotels will be highly attractive for these guests and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from the line of Chris Agnew of MKM Partners. Chris, please go ahead?

Chris Agnew

Analyst

Thank you very much, good morning. Couple of questions. First one, I know there are a lot of puts and takes in the quarter. I was just wondering if you would be able to quantify what you believe the impact of the Jewish holidays in the third quarter and therefore maybe likely in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks Chris. It is kind of difficult with all the puts and takes coming in to pull out each one because they interrelated with each other because for example, we have had some group business that didn’t materialize because it was cancelled in the hurricane hitting areas, but then the franchise business benefited from that because we got more FEMA business et cetera. So to try and put some individual number on each companion part there is too much guesstimation that would have to go on to that, so I’m not going to give a specific number for the Jewish observances.

Chris Agnew

Analyst

Understood. I thought I would try that. And then next question on, if we could just maybe think about comparing avid with respect to EVEN Hotels I think on the earlier call in the UK you said that EVEN had got off to a slow start in the US, why where you so much more confident about avid are you pitching this with, is there a lower royalty rate, is it higher ROI is it larger end market, what’s driving your increased confidence in that brand?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks Chris. So avid is absolutely in our sweet spot where we really already have the category killer. So Holiday Inn Express is the category killer in our limited service market. If you look at its growth around the world there is nobody who has a brand like that. And then we’re launching avid into that existing reputation and that known competency for revenue delivery into that segment. It is a smaller plot as required for the owners and it is going to be slightly lower price point, slightly tighter rooms or value engineers, a very high GOP margins for owners, have a very high ROI, and going up against Hotel products that frankly is pretty old in that segment. So it is going to be something that isn’t offered to consumers at the moment. So it is going to be very effective attractive from an owner perspective, very attractive from a guest perspective, and that’s already playing through in the interest that we're getting from owners, worked with our own counsel and developing this and we know there is a lot of them who want to build a lot of avid. So, I have absolutely no doubt as to it. So, it is strong success initially in the US and then over time, I am sure we will take it internationally as well. Compare that with EVEN, EVEN will be a success for us in due course and it will have international capability, but it is more into one niche positioning, niche positioning where people really want this wellness product and they will pay a premium for it, which we are seeing as these hotels are performing well and there have been demand from owners in China and in the Australasia market to bring the product there, but it is not going to be a product at the same scale of avid.

Chris Agnew

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And then last question, you had strong net unit growth in the quarter and obviously the pipeline is growing strongly, you have strong growth additions, you know a lot of your net unit growth comes down because the removals, most of that is in the US. Is that starting to slow the pace of removals and why might that happen as we think out over the next couple of years? Thanks.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Yes. No, absolutely, and we talked about our exit range, our removals range being in the 2% to 3% range and we are managing to bring that down for few years, we are right at the top of that and I would like to see us read down at the bottom end of that range. Not sure exactly which year that’s going to be, but I think that’s doable, and partly it is that we have moved our US franchise contracts from a 10-year contract on to our 20 year contract and that is helping us get owners to invest back in the properties more early and also we have just been taking out some of these hotels that we weren't happy with the product quality and becoming right the tale of that. So, I think we have got good momentum around that and then the signings that we have had, which has been ramping up quite nicely, I guess since about 2012 are now starting to play to a higher level of openings, which mathematically they will be. There is just a timing lag, which is then translating into a higher rate of net system size growth.

Chris Agnew

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks Chris.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs. Stephen, please go ahead.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Do you have any early reads on 2018 from forward group bookings or otherwise that you can share?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Good morning Stephen. You know because we are not as big as a group house as - or we don't get quite that same level of early booking pace visibility, so it is quite early to look at it. I guess what we look at is the numbers that are coming out from Star and others around demand growth around supply growth and it doesn't look to be a particularly different picture to what would save 2017. I guess the only thing I would add into that is that the boost that we have seen in the third quarter. We would expect it would translate through to certainly first half of 2018, could it does take some time when you look at Katrina and from hurricanes, when you look at Katrina and Sandy it is probably a 5 quarter, 6 quarter benefit. I wouldn’t expect it to be materially different this time.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

That’s helpful. And then in terms of the accelerating unit count, I think you kind of have been pretty clear about sustaining a little bit for higher pace, but how should we think about the impact on RevPAR I guess from accelerating unit growth longer term, there seems like there is some puts and takes between the absolute RevPAR dollars from some of the new units coming in versus maybe the ramp up in those properties that can occur? Thanks.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Yes. So there is a few component parts to that Stephen. One is, obviously as we open up new properties that you will have to ramp up and that will take say three years, it’s fairly normal for a luxury property it will take a little longer, but then you've got the mix impact that we are opening up a lot of hotels into China market and sum of the markets that we’re going into that. They will be great markets long term, but they got to fully develop before they are really yielding that potential RevPAR. So in terms of the blend and the mix effect it’s not one for one as we bring in these new rooms. We are bringing in some of them at a lower RevPAR, so it won't translate directly through to that same level of revenue growth.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

Okay that’s helpful and then one last one if I can is may be changing gears a little bit, just on the technology investment and the roll out of the Cloud-based reservation management system, can you just remind us the exact timing and how your CapEx spend should evolve over the next couple of years? Thanks.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Absolutely. So GRS program is on track and very pleased with progress, we’re expecting to have it in 100 hotels by the end of this year and then we will start the full rollout in 2018 and we expect to have it rolled out across the state by end of the year/first quarter of 2019. So that will be our replacement for the whole of ex-platform, which has been around for 25 years or so. So it’s a big deal for us obviously, and the vast majority of the costs of this has been picked up by Amadeus, who is the platform partners who will be offering on a community basis to other companies in the sector. What we have been paying for through our CapEx is our enterprise software that fits on top of that to our revenue management price optimization CRM software capabilities et cetera. All the stuff that is proprietary to us, we have been building that to work against a new engine. So that the cost of that, which we have been front in the CapEx for and then we will get that back over time as it is depreciated to consistent fund.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

And do you think of this as being something that could give you another leg up in RevPAR or is it more about the unit growth going forward maybe if you just think about the primary benefits aside from switching over from outdated kind of software to begin with?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

There is a few different advantages from it. One is there will be a revenue uplift on our day over time and as we are able to do more with the system as we bring out new functionality. The version one, if you like is the existing functionality and of holiday. Interestingly though, what we've found it didn't expect was the number of owners have said we like the new functionality, and the functionality exist in the old system it was just quite hard to find some of it. It was still a DOS-based system and so this is now obviously in a Windows environment with a much more accessible interface. So more of the tools are going to be used, which should have some benefit to RevPAR and then we are able to add in more functionality, which will allow us to do things like revenue manage the overall attributes of the Hotel inventory better and that’s down the line once we roll those out. But it also makes training easier and there is a number of other benefits that it will bring to us, as well as the fact that you do have to replace these technology platforms over time because otherwise they just become too difficult to maintain because your software engineers retire and you really need to be working of your environment.

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

That's great, thank you so much.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks Stephen.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Well, thanks Holly. I think that's all the questions we have got for today. So many thanks to everybody for dialing in. Thanks for your interest and have a great weekend. Speak to you soon. Bye for now.